I'm thinking that likely our worst group would be Argentina, Norway and a strong European playoff team. It would likely remove any possible advantage of being in pot 2. Weakest maybe Canada/Mexico, Scotland and New Zealand.
Canada-Australia-Scotland-New Zealand would probably be the worst Group in history. But also one of the most fun in history because it is the worst.
Hosts vs. UEFA Playoff is around 76%/72%/66% for MEX/CAN/USA. (I'd love to chat about the benefits of USA in Group D instead of A, but....) So not certain, but way too likely. The crowd should shout "Lock Him Up" at Gianni for the UEFA rules (and blame Costa Rica a bit too.) NOR/SCO don't have to be w/ SEN/MAR IF!!! if SUI/AUT/HRV are drawn into a UEFA Pot 1 group. Then it'll be down to the "last group" and last ball(s) in Pot 3 drawn. AFAIK the constraints aren't enforced until the last possible opportunity. As well, you only need one 2UEFA/1CAF group, so if that's ENG/SUI/ALG then Norway and Scotland can go pretty much wherever (up to 4 2UEFA groups, not 5 which is a 1% chance.) Iraq path must include one of AUT/HRV/SUI/SCO/NOR. I don't think any of the 5 are more or less likely. Also must include one of 7 CAF teams. The first 7 draws in my sim had Panama with either Ghana or Cape Verde. But a UEFA team is about a 32% chance (vs. 42% for the two CAF). New Zealand about a 10% chance - New Zealand is needed to "fill in the blanks" when no other team(s) can go into a group. Much better chance for Panama to face JOR/NZL if Panama is drawn into Group C, less bit better for Group E. The "not likely" aren't that unlikely, mostly aligns to the straight math. For example, the 5 Euros in Pot 2 and 3 certainly can align, with only a 25% reduced chance (need a 2UEFA1CAF and there's no CAF in Pot 1.) Of course the likely of 2 teams drawn into 3 of 12 groups with the max 2 UEFA restriction is a little low (30%?) to start with. And there's lots of "more likely" situations - for example Panama is 3 times more likely to be in Group C than Group F-L simply because if Panama is drawn 1st, 2nd, or 3rd they'll go to Group C. Twice as likely in Group E. Just math, nothing interesting. Here's what I fear (hope?) happens. New Zealand gets drawn first, with Big Vic on stage somewhere. Rio Ferdinand repeats what's in his ear piece: "Due to Gianni's obsession of having one decent - that means European - team in each group, we have to put a UEFA team in Group A. Therefore let's put New Zealand in...Group B! Happy birthday Vic. And the next team drawn is...UEFA Playoff path Italy!" I wonder if they'll have to remove the audience after they all shout the word-that-cannot-be-said-after-a-goal-kick? Gets even worse if they draw more and more minnows and IC playoff teams before the first UEFA one. Gianni might wanna skip M1 if this happens. (60% chance each of A/B/D have no UEFA teams going into Pot 4.)
Thanks. That was my remote understanding of it. And given those are the 3 least interesting groups probably, it essentially means we are waiting til Saturday for details on games we might want to watch.
Sure, I mean for neutrals. Of course people want to attend matches involving their country, but many are also happy to attend matches involving 2 countries they aren't nationals of. And they'd likely have no interest seeing a Canada, Mex or US game that will be overpriced relative to the quality of football because of where the games are being played.
the worst thing is that that is far from reality... and they were the worst by far in 2022. actually I can't remember any team being so bad since zaire 1974. this world cup will teach us many things and I bet FIFA is not going to learn anything
I don't know if there are many teams worse than Qatar in the 2026 field. Time will tell, I suppose. But I'd be surprised if there aren't several teams around Qatar's level, which wasn't the case in 2022 when, as you say, Qatar were at a (low) level by themselves.
Just checking my EPG now and its actually a 3-hour timeslot (on FOX). My goodness! So, make sure you are still recording past 2:00 ET (when the real action is probably just starting).
From what I have read FIFA is adamant that the standard won't drop, so the additional teams - especially from Africa and Asia - will be under extra pressure to be competitive.
Come on.... every team is under a lot of pressure. Qatar certainly was as hosts in 2022 (yet they performed poorly). All the CAF teams were in 2010 when Africa hosted their first WC (yet they performed poorly overall).
I was referring to the doubling of places to Africa and Asia which has to have some justification. Anyway, FIFA is bullish that not only will the standard not drop but that 48 teams is the right number according to Wegner. “We started with 13 teams, after, 16, until in ’82 was the first time with 24 teams. ’98 (was) the first time with 32 teams. So, the evolution is (that) always more teams want to participate. And now I believe that 48 teams is the right number,” added the Frenchman. Wenger and Ellis highlight impact of 48-team FIFA World Cup™ So 64 teams is hopefully off the table.
Safe to say "zero", I think. If by "English" you mean one of the country's official languages being English. It might even take some time to find a group that had 3 English-speaking countries in it. Even that could have only realistically happened after CAF teams started receiving a decent # of spots (and would still doubt 3 occurred before).
With 64 teams, it starts to damage FIFA's product in the other 3.9 years of the World Cup cycle by making everything nearly preordained for top teams, and likely seeing a loss in interest from both players and fans. There are a few European countries that may like this outcome since it basically cements the dominance of the club game, with the national team game starting to shrink and become compartmentalized into a few summer months like the NBA. But for everybody else? No way.
Good point. The expansion from 32 to 48 only led to a modest increase in the # of UEFA teams, so didn't have a big (negative) impact to the qualifying process in Europe. But a further WC expansion by 16 teams will undoubtably see UEFA get a larger increase in # of spots. They'll probably get more than their share as there are only 2 other global regions that could realistically send more than 1-2 additional teams. So, UEFA would probably get 21-22 spots in total.