No, there are 10 groups where teams that can finish 2nd can get with 7 adjusted points (I think I said 9 before, but it's 10 - only 1 and 5 can't). Tunisia (if they end up 2nd) must finish ahead of the Group 11 runner-up - so if Ethiopia beat Morocco in their postponed game, Tunisia would advance - even though the 1st placed team in the group wouldn't be a definite qualifer, the 2nd placed team would be. Crazy!!!) J
Let the craziness continue. It is possible that Tunisia, who may finish 2nd in their group with 13 points, could fail to make the next round, yet (if Madagascar beat Cote d'Ivoire and Botswana defeat Mozambique) then Madagascar could finish 2nd in their group with just 9 points, but still advance to the next stage, because they would have 8 "adjusted points" to Tunisia's 7 It is also possible that, at the very end of the matches, when Congo are beating Sudan 1-0, that Congo would be in a position to advance, yet if they scored another goal, to lead 2-0, then they would be eliminated (because Sudan would fall to 4th in the group and the 2nd place points level would change). That would be an awful thing to tell the goal scorer "Hey, fella, your goal just eliminated yourself". Just remember folks, UEFA are using effectively the same system to work out which of their 2nd place teams advance. J PS - I didn't discover these, thanks to Chanheigeorge from wikipedia.
I did it the hard way update after September's matches Code: [B][U]Seeding Pots[/U][/B] TEAM CAN PTS FIFA PTS WCQ PTS TOTAL [B]Cam 15 20 13 48[/B] [B]Egy 16 18 12 46[/B] Gha* 14 19 9 42 Civ 13 17 9 39 [B]Nig 10 16 15 41[/B] Tun 12 13 10 35 Gui 9 14 8 31 Mor 6 15 9 30 Ang 11 10 7 28 Mli 7 11 9 27 Sen* 5 12 8 25 BFS 1 8 13 22 Zam 8 6 7 21 DRC 1 7 9 17 LBY 1 1 12 14 RWA 1 1 12 14 ALG 1 4 9 14 [B]BEN 2 1 9 12[/B] KEN 1 1 10 12 CVI 1 1 9 11 CON 1 1 9 11 MLW* 1 1 9 11 TOG* 1 3 6 10 SWA 1 1 8 10 GAM 1 1 8 10 UGA* 1 1 7 9 SIE 1 1 7 9 ETH* 1 1 6 8 * teams currently in third place in their respective groups. [B][U]2nd Runner up Table [/U][/B] (WS = win scenario, DS = draw scenario, LS = lost scenario, 2RU Pts = current pts not gained against (likely) *= final tally not yet known) TEAM WS DS LS 2RU PTS Egy 9 9 9 9 Mor* 9 7 6 6 Con* 9 7 6 6 (Mli W Chad) Sud* 9 X X 6 (Mli D Cha + Sud W Con by 2+) Tun 7 7 7 7 Sen 7 7 7 7 BFS 7 7 7 7 Zam 7 7 7 7 KEN X X 7 7 --------------------------------------------------- UGA* 7 5 4 4 SWA* 7 5 X 4 SIE* 7 5 4 4 Con* X 7 X 6 (Mli D Chad + Sud D Con) Gha 6 6 6 6 LBY X X 6 6 RWA X X 6 6 ALG X 6 6 6 DRC* 6 5 4 4 ------------------------------------------------------- CVI* 6 4 3 3 MLW* 6 4 3 3 ETH* 6 4 3 3 TOG* 6 X X 3 GAM* 6 4 X 3 Sud* 6 X X 3 (Mli W Chad) Con* X X 6 6 (Mli D Cha + Sud W Con by 1) Mli* X X 6 6 (Mli L Cha + Sud D/L Con) Civ 5 5 5 5 Ang 4 4 4 4 Mli X 4 X 3 (Mli D Cha + Con W Sud) Gui* X 3 2 2 ??? (Mli L Cha + Sud W Con) Pot 1. Ivory Coast looks like a lock so the only real doubt is if Ghana misses out. I expect the Black stars to beat Lesotho - chances are they'll finish 2nd, but they could still steal first place if Gabon beat Libya narrowly and they crush the last placed team. Pot 2. I expect Tunisia to go through as one of the best runner ups° Guinea will probably beat Kenya in Conakry to take the group. I have no word on what's happened to the Morrocco-Ethiopia match but if Morrocco don't take the group on goal difference they might just scrape through as one of the best second. Angola has to take care of business against Niger and hope that Uganda don't have a much better result against an already qualified Benin at home. However I don't see Angola getting through as a best second placed team. Mali should probably beat Chad at home and stay top of the group. Senegal should beat Gambia at home. Burkina Faso will definitely make pot 3 and even push for 2 if Senegal screws up. They should be fine even if they lose their last match and Tunisia hammers the Seychelles to take top spot on goal difference. Zambia look good for qualification regardless of the result of the Togo-Swaziland match. The DRC don't look very good for qualification with the 2nd placed spot and Egypt can't mess up against Djibouti. A draw at home to Ethiopia should see Rwanda through - a shock loss could see them go out on goal difference though because their second placed points are pretty low... Algeria will probably need a tricky away win in Liberia if they are to hope to get through - anything other than a draw in the other match could be to them otherwise. I'll still bet on them. I don't know how seriously an already qualified Benin will take the away game in uganda. just for the sake of 3 seeding points more, so they may stay in pot 4. Kenya could go out if they lose to Guinea as expected. What hasn't been specified is what criteria is used to separate the second runner up teams with the same adjusted points. Goal difference - the goals scored and conceded to 4th placed teams ?
Anyone care to guess how many goals a desperate Ghana hang on Lesotho? Hard to believe they and Senegal have left it this late. Both are on the edge of not even making the final round...
Current adjusted goal difference for teams likely to get through as best 2nd placed winners (definitive GD in bold) CVI 2-4 (-2) ------------------- Ken 5-0 (+5) (GD will necessarily go down if they're in this table) ------------------- Uga 4-5 (-1) ------------------- Sie 1-1 (0) -------------------- Ghana 5-1 (4) Libya 2-0 (2) (GD will necessarily go down if they're in this table) -------------------- Sen 6-4 (+2) (GD will necessarily go up if they're in this table) Alg 4-4 (0) Gam 1-1 (0) (GD will not go down if they're in this table) ------------------- Mad¤ 1-0 (1) (GD will necessarily go up if they're in this table) ------------------- Mor 5-0 (+5) Rwa 5-4 (1) (GD will necessarily go down if they're in this table) ------------------- Tun 4-3 (+1) Bfs 4-1 (+3) (GD will necessarily go down if they're in this table) ------------------- Con 6-4 (+2) (Mli W Cha, Con W Sud) (GD will necessarily go up) Sud 5-6 (-1) (Mli D Cha, Sud W Con 2-0) (GD will necessarily go up) Con 4-4 (0) (Mli D Cha, Sud D Con) Sud 3-6 (-3) (Mli W Cha, Sud W Con) (GD will necessarily go up) Con 4-4 (0) (Mli D Cha, Sud W Con 1-0) (GD will necessarily go d) Mli 6-4 (2) (Mli L Cha + Sud D/L Con) (GD will necessarily go d) Mli 6-4 (2) (Mli D Cha + Con W Sud) ??? (Mli L Cha + Sud W Con) ------------------- Zam 2-1 (+1) Swa 2-2 (0) (GD will not go down if they're in this table) Tog 2-3 (-1) (GD will necessarily go up if they're in this table) -------------------- Egy 5-2 (+3) DRC 2-3 (-1) (GD will not go down if they're in this table) Mwi 1-3 (-2) ------------------- ¤omitted in previous tables
That's some great stuff on Wikipedia. Can somebody translate that to the exact set of results needed for each team?
It'll get done. I am planning on setting it out for myself next week (got a long flight to fill in). J
I'm gonna do a prediction of the 20 teams that will go in the 3d phase. remember that I don't know many things about caf football and I stated these results watching some highlights on youtube and watching the precedents game's results on wikipedia. 1st placed teams Camerun Guinea Benin Nigeria Libia Algeria Ivory Coast Ruanda Burkina Faso Mali Zambia Egypt 2nd placed teams Capo Verde Kenya Uganda Ghana Senegal Morocco Tunisia Sudan
PARIS (AFP) - Ethiopia were kicked out of the World Cup by FIFA on Friday after the long-running power struggle within the game in the African nation failed to be resolved. FIFA, the sport's world governing body, said that all four matches played by Ethiopia to date in African zone Group 8, as well as the results of those matches, are now cancelled. The group now comprises three teams - Morocco, Mauritania and Rwanda. Ethiopia had won two matches in the group and had garnered six points. "The Bureau of the Organising Committee for the FIFA World Cup has decided to exclude the Ethiopian Football Federation (EFF) from the preliminary competition with immediate effect," said a statement. "The FIFA Emergency Committee suspended the EFF on 29 July 2008 due to the non-compliance of the EFF with the roadmap agreed in February 2008 by FIFA, the African Football Confederation (CAF) and the EFF in order to normalise the situation of the federation." http://sports.yahoo.com/sow/news?slug=afp-fblwc2010afrethfifa&prov=afp&type=lgns
Rwanda is now qualified with 9 points. Morocco should also be in final round with a win at home against Mauritania. http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/africa/standings/index.html
Guessing the results of the final round, here's who could advance: 1st places Cameroon Guinea Benin Nigeria Libya Algeria Cote d'Ivoire Morocco Burkina Faso Mali Zambia Egypt 2nd places 9-Rwanda 7-Congo 7-Kenya 7-Senegal 7-Tunisia 6-Ghana 6-Togo 4-Angola 4-Cape Verde 4-Congo DR 1-Mozambique 1-South Africa Thoughts: Malawi vs Congo DR is a key match. Malawi has played well at home, beating Egypt. I put down a draw as the likely result, but that will do neither team any good. Looks like a win would secure advancement for either team. Also of interest is the group 7 second place situation. If Cote d'Ivoire beats Madagascar as expected, then Mozambique would finish second with just a draw at Botswana. But they would need Madagascar to lose by only 1 goal so that Botswana would still be fourth. It actually doesn't look too unreasonable for Angola to advance, though still unlikely. I put down Cape Verde as drawing in addition to Congo DR, so those results need to go their way.
The ethiopia thing ùodified Rwanda's situation both as regards seeding and best 2nd runner up spot. I also had a slight error for Zambia as far as the seeding goes.
your first places are spot on imo. Re second places: - Tanzania at home seem pretty tough, but I'm sure with nothing to play for CVI will pull out the painful win - Kenya is going to lose to Guinea but Bunker all the way if they're smart - Who is going to stuff it in more away? an already qualified Benin or an already eliminated Niger? Niger were feisty enough to beat Uganda last matchday but I don't think they will hold up to the Palancas onslaught. Plus Benin's 3 points in Uganda could come in handy for seeding. Angola will get second but will not be able to improve their adjusted points tally or GD. - At best I expect Sierra Leone to pull off a draw against an already qualified Nigerian squad in Nigeria. South Africa was shambolic, but the Leone stars can't be that good. -Ghana may get some help from Libya but even if they couldn't pounding Lesotho should suffice. It won't help their adjusted points or GD any though. -Senegal at home will beat Gambia and probably go up by 2 goal - Group 7 is a tough call, but I expect Ivory coast to win by at least 2 goals even if Madagascar has been a handful so far and for Botswana - Mozambique to finish in a draw. Madagascar should finish bottom on goal difference leaving Mozambique pretty badly off in 2nd place. I could be wrong with the scenario mantioned above happening, bt i won't bet on it. - Tunisia could forfeit their match against Seychelles and it won't change a thing -Rwanda will obviously get through. -Apparently i forgot to include Mali beat Chad and Sudan draw Congo in my scenarios. Strange considering that's what I expect to happen. - Togo these days is such a circus, but you can't expect them not to win a t home. Swaziland simply doesn't have the pedigree. Togo's GD may go up by 2 at most though. - I also see DRC-Malawi as a draw, and as you say, it wouldn't do either team any good. If i'm wrong though the edge will go to Malawi Rwanda 9 (+4) Congo 7 (+2) Kenya 7 (+4) Tunisia 7 (+1) Senegal 7 (+4) Ghana 6 (+4) Togo 6 (+1) CVI 5 (0) More goals scored ------------------- Sierra Leone 5 (0) DRC 4 (-1) Angola 4 (0) Mozambique 2 (-2)
This format just defeats basic football ie just beat your opponant. This stage in qualifying for africa seems to a mess leaving most groups a shambols. Yes this could of been much better as it would just...keep it simple.
JOHANNESBURG, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Plans to play the next round of African World Cup qualifiers at the same time have been ditched after complaints from participating countries. FIFA had ordered 22 matches across 12 groups to kick off at 1300 GMT on Oct. 11 to avoid any side having an advantage before playing their final game of the second round group phase. The decision has since been reversed after protests from several teams, notably from west African countries who would have had to kick off in blazing lunchtime temperatures of around 40 degrees Celsius. A FIFA spokesman admitted on Friday that their original decision had “proved difficult due to climaticchallenges.” He added: “Therefore it was decided that matches would be played simultaneously only in those groups where the first and/or second places in the standings have not yet been determined.” Matches will now be played on both Oct. 11 and 12. The 12 group winners plus eight best-placed runners-up advance to the final group phase next year. Seventeen of the 20 places are still up for grabs.
The final days fixtures of this stage of african qualifying: 10th October Angola Vs Niger Togo Vs Swaziland 11th October Tanzania Vs Cape Verde Cameroon Vs Mauritius Namibia Vs Zimbabwe Equatorial Guinea Vs South Africa Nigeria Vs Sierra Leone Gabon Vs Libya Senegal Vs Gambia Botswana Vs Mozambique Morocco Vs Mauritania Tunisia Vs Seychelles Sudan Vs Congo Malawi Vs Congo DR 12th October Guinea Vs Kenya Uganda Vs Benin Ghana Vs Lesotho Liberia Vs Algeria Cote d'Ivoire Vs Madagascar Burundi Vs Burkina Faso Mali Vs Chad Egypt Vs Djibouti
It seems the 2010 FIFA World Cup tiebreaking rules might have changed for this round according to an Ugandan website.
If true, then this really shakes up, not only that group, but all the groups. For instance, Zambia would have already clinched first thanks to a 1-0 GD vs Swaziland.
well..congo DR stuffed it against Malawi conceding a late goal. Malawi will get the second placed unless Djibouti pull off the upset of the century against Egypt. But with a virtual point total of 6 and a virtual -1 goal difference, they only have a very slim chance of going through (as the seventh or eigth) if other results go their way