Both teams there are gonna advance regardless, so for me it's not as exciting as some of the other groups.
Not necessarily. If Burkina can beat Tunisia and Burundi can get a result against the Seychelles, then that leaves Tunisia in 2nd spot with only 6 points against "non-bottom teams". They'll be sweating, just a little.
FT - Algeria 3:2 Senegal If Gambia wins by 3 goals vs Liberia, then all they have to do is draw @ Senegal next month and Senegal will be out.
seems like south africa lost at home to an already qualified nigeria. If sierra leone beats equatorial guinea in 3 hours, South Africa are all but out of the CAN
They'll actually be all out. They wouldn't be able to make the top 8 runners-up regardless of results. J
If sierra leone and equatorial guinea are drawn, south africa's only hope would be to make a draw in the last match against equatorial guinea and not to beat them, because if they do, siera leone will be 3rd and south africa won't be one of the best 8 RUs. That would be quite wierd.
I think it would have been better to qualify 2 teams from each group + the best 3 ranked team, making the last stage 5 groups of 5.
well i was allowing for the offhand possibility that both uganda and angola lose both of their last two matches. I guess i forget to do the double points thing for Togo's group
apparently the Nigeria victory was completely against the run of play with SA missing like 7 sitters !!!!
The doubling thing is just for the seeding. To determine the best 8 RUs only the matches against the 1st and the 3rd counts.
I would say a better way would have been to have a few more opening round series to reduce to 40. Then you can have 10 groups of 4 and just have all the top 2 teams advance.
So South Africa are out! LOL Hopefully, this is the wake up call the SA football association needs to get their $#*! together or else they'll be making history as the first host nation to go out in the first round.
Mauritius 1-4 Tanzania Cape Verde 1-2 Cameroon Kenya 1-0 Namibia South Africa 0-1 Nigeria Sierra Leone 2-1 Equatorial Guinea Gambia 3-0 Liberia Mauritania 0-1 Rwanda Seychelles 1-2 Burundi Burkina Faso 0-0 Tunisia Sudan 1-2 Chad
people said the same thing about Korea and Japan. If they get a favorable draw, they may still be able to make the knockout stages. Believe it or not they have much more trouble playing African sides , than teams outside of their continent.
Zimbabwe 0-0 Guinea Benin 3-2 Angola Niger 3-1 Uganda Lesotho 0-3 Gabon Madagascar 1-0 Botswana Mozambique 1-1 Cote d'Ivoire Congo 1-0 Mali Congo DR 0-1 Egypt TEAMS IN FINAL STAGE Cameroon Benin Nigeria Burkina Faso Tunisia Egypt TEAMS STILL IN Cape Verde Kenya Guinea Zimbabwe Angola Uganda Sierra Leone Libya Gabon Ghana Algeria Gambia Senegal Cote d'Ivoire Madagascar Mozambique Rwanda Morocco Ethiopia Mali Congo Chad Sudan Sqaziland Zambia Togo Congo DR Malawi ELIMINATED TEAMS Tanzania Mauritius Namibia Niger South Africa (just from ACN) Equatorial Guinea Lesotho Liberia Botswana Mauritania Burundi Seychelles Djibouti
Do you have a source. I am not sure about the two shown. BFA and TUN could both end up 2nd and with 7 runner-up points and that could (if they had a very bad goal difference in the last match) leave them 9th on the 2nd place rankings as only groups 1, 5 and 11 are certain to have their 2nd place team finish with fewer than 7 points. Botswana would still be if they weren't behind Mozambique on goal difference. If they were ahead of MOZ on GD they would have needed to draw (not win) and hope CIV won their last match to have any hope. J
I think you can count Zimbabwe out. The only way they can grab second spot is by beating Namibia into the 4th spot. If Namibia finishes last however they can only be credited 3 points (3 ties against non zimbabwean opponents). There are only 4 other groups where teams can come second with 3 second placed points - Group 5 (Gabon), Group 7 (Ivory Coast or Madagascar), Group 10 (Chad) Group 8 (Ethiopia or Morrocco), However, in all of these scenarios, the team would have to lose its remainng matches* (exception made of Madagascar who would need a draw) AND rely on a combination of lucky results to get into second spot with only 3 second place points. Zimbabwe would then have to hope that ALL of the 4 teams from the groups mentioned finish with negative goal differences (against non 4th placed opposition). this is already the case of Gabon, Madagascar, Chad and Ethiopia, but is very unlikely to occur with either Ivory Coast or Morocco (who it must be said will probably win their groups anyhow) I really wouldn't bet against odds like those... but then again, stranger things have happened
Pretty much (everything else in this post was spot on BTW). I have a little "monte carlo" simulator to see the odds of teams progressing - it simulates results based on FIFA ranks (and the typical results achieved based on FIFA ranks across the past decade). As of now the following are the chances of teams progressing to the next stage (simulation run 25,000 times). Code: Benin Q Cameroon Q Egypt Q Nigeria Q Burkina Faso 100.0% Tunisia 100.0% Kenya 99.9% Côte d’Ivoire 99.7% Morocco 96.9% Mali 95.3% Algeria 95.1% Rwanda 94.1% Ghana 87.7% Congo 77.0% Togo 72.2% Senegal 65.6% Guinea 64.4% Zambia 60.9% Gabon 54.3% Libya 52.7% Congo DR 46.6% Cape Verde Islands 37.1% Swaziland 34.5% Gambia 32.6% Malawi 31.7% Angola 23.6% Mozambique 21.2% Uganda 12.1% Sudan 11.9% Sierra Leone 11.3% Chad 8.7% Ethiopia 6.8% Madagascar 6.1% Zimbabwe 0.0% Burundi E Botswana E Djibouti E Equatorial Guinea E Liberia E Lesotho E Mauritius E Mauritania E Namibia E Niger E Seychelles E South Africa E Tanzania E At least as far down as Ghana any team that wins their last match will go through, and a few only need a draw. Tunisia and Burkina Faso would need a ridiculous combination of results to miss out (and in neither case did any of the 25,000 simulations have the necessary results occur - while in Zimbabwe's case 11 simulations saw them advance). J
It's nice that it works out that the number of teams with better than a 50% chance of advancing equals the number of teams that will advance. That isn't always the case in sports.