News: FIFA to expand World Cup to 48 teams in 2026, impact upon the USA

I prefer your other proposal. This format's Hex round resembles UEFA in a bad way with the higher number of rubber matches in groups and bigger top-to-bottom talent disparities. Having a final round where half of the finalists qualify would work better IMO. I wouldn't foresee too many of the bottom 16 teams making the final Hex round in your other format. The concern for lengthy schedules for the bottom teams would be moot.

 

This somehow both completely devalues and removes any tension or excitement from the qualification process (i.e., more or less the only international games that I had to look forward to in the four years between World Cups), while increasing the possibility that at the end of that four year process you may only get two games at the World Cup.

Sure there's still Gold Cup finals, and the occasional Confederations Cup and Copa America. But the games I've always cared the most about are the Hex qualifiers and the World Cup. This basically reduces the number of those games from at least 13-14 to potentially 2.

 

Eventually if you expand enough China and India could qualify.

Just kidding. India wouldn't qualify in a thousand years.

 

it is incredibly awful imo for anyone who is a fan of watching the National team.

The entire set up now from qualification through the group stage at the WC itself is bogus.

Meaningless qualification followed by the chance that you lose a fluke game in the group stage on PK's and your entire cycle is over before you started with only 2 games in the group stage expected.

Just terrible.

The one very small bright spot is that we really won't be affected by this until 2028 or so if we host in 2026.

Hopefully something will happen to fix this complete cluster ******** but I am far from holding my breath.

 

This, and with 2 teams advancing from a group of 3 a LOT of the final group-stage games are going to be Germany-Austria affairs. If you're unlucky enough in the draw to not be playing in the final game then you had better get 6 points from your 2 games or you have to assume the other two teams will collude to shut you out. Plus in that final game you'll have a team on about a week rest going up against one on 3-4 days. This is just a really awful idea all around. If they were determined to expand, they should've gone to either 40 or 64.

A 16-team Copa has to become a regular event now, and CONCACAF and CONMEBOL should give serious thought to a full merger. Otherwise it's just going to kill the international game in both regions.

 

FIFA is aware this is a possibility and are considering using pk's/shootouts (think like the old MLS games) to decide games that are level after 90 minutes in the group stage to prevent against this.

This whole thing is such a pure cluster ******** and FIFA is going to fix mistakes with bigger mistakes.

 

4 points would be enough to qualify. The other two teams would have 1 and 0 points respectively and both can't get to 4.

 

Yeah good point.

Still, it sucks.

 

I agree its not ideal, but the scenario I pointed out can be minimised if the seeded team plays the first two games. If a seed isn't good enough to get a win and a draw, then they maybe don't deserve to go through.

 

Nobody knows yet what the new qualification process will be for CONCACAF. We are just speculating. Montagliani, has stated he wants more games for the weaker teams and obviously with 6.33 spots for CONCACAF things will change, but we don't know yet how it will change. I do think they make the change for the 2022 cycle, because Montagliani has stated he wants to make a change.

As far as the group stage goes, the old format was 3 games and out, the new format is 2 games and out. It's not that big of a difference.... we are talking about 1 game. The games in the group are more important now... basically you need results, get a win or a tie or go home. In the old format you could lose the first game and still qualify. If you lose the first game in this format, you can still qualify, but the results of the other 2 matches could determine who goes through. The 3 way tie I think is the biggest problem with this new format.

Like this...
USA 0 - 1 Wales
USA 1 - 0 Qatar
Qatar 3 - 2 Wales

The above scenario is what I am worried about. The last game determines the group. Wales and Qatar could collude to advance.

Before the 3rd game the points are this...
Wales 3pts, GD +1, GS 1
USA 3pts, GD 0, GS 1
Qatar 0pts, GD -1, GS 0

After the 3rd game the points are this...
Wales 3pts, GD 0, GS 3
Qatar 3pts, GD 0, GS 3
USA 3pts, GD 0, GS 1

Now if USA at least wins 1 and ties 1 game then we are not in this problem, but these are the scenarios I am worried about... what can FIFA do to fix this in a 3 team group?

 

Qatar advances based on their bribe amount relative to Wales and USA's bribe amounts, clearly.

 

Yep. Found @Footsatt 's choice of phrase, "what can FIFA do to fix this" a bit of double entendre.

 

FIFA is destroying international soccer. Maybe there should have been a Europa League style international tournament instead of a 48-team WC. 32 was and is perfect.

 

The problem with all 4 formats in this article is the first and second rounds are all a home and away 2 leg games. This does not solve the problem that Montagliani wants to fix (more games for the weaker teams). Two many teams in all 4 scenarios will play just 2 games total every cycle. The new format should give more teams to the weaker teams... so the weak teams play a minimum of 4 to 6 games every cycle.

Current: 10 to 17 teams will play 2 games total (in every cycle)

In format 1: 10 to 17 teams will play 2 games total

In format 2: 11 to 19 teams will play 2 games total

In format 3: 9 to 16 teams will play 2 games total

In format 4: 8 to 16 teams will play 2 games total

 

I guess I am in the minority. I think this will be good for the game, and our region.

I look back to pre 1998 when our region only got 2 spots and if it stayed this way our region would not be what it is today. If from 1998 to 2014 CONCACAF only had 2 spots this is who qualifies.

2014 USA and Costa Rica, no Mexico, no Honduras
2010 USA and Mexico, no CR, no Honduras
2006 USA and Mexico, no CR, no T&T
2002 Costa Rica and Mexico, no USA (only received 3 spots)
1998 Mexico and USA, no Jamaica (only received 3 spots)

Without expansion from 2 to 4 spots for CONCACAF the USA misses out on 2002. Mexico misses out on 2014. Costa Rica have qualified for the past 4 WCs. Do they have the performance they had in 2014 if they don't qualify in 2006 and 2010?

We should always qualify now along with Mexico and CR, but teams that thought they never could be top 4 now have a chance in 2026. There is going to be a big battle for the teams ranked 5 to 10 now that was not there before. Teams that were on the cusp like Jamaica, T&T and Panama have a good chance now to make the WC, and teams like Curacao, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua all will be battling with a realistic chance of making it. This expansion is going to make these mid tier teams better.

Qualifying will obviously change. it was due to change before the 2026 announcement anyway. I welcome the change to our region. The weaker teams need more games, and so do the mid tier teams. If CONCACAF gets this new process right it should benefit our entire region, and boost all of our FIFA ranks accordingly.

Long story short... without expansion the US or Mexico do not make the WC for 7 cycles straight, and new teams in our region are going to get better.

I argue without expansion CR does not make quarters in 2014. Who knows what team from our region might emerge as a contender. Look at what is currently happening in Nicaragua (made the Gold Cup first the first time since 2009), maybe a team like Nicaragua becomes the Ireland or Iceland of our region.

 

Yeah, and how amazingly dull will CONCACRAP qualifying be without both the USA and Mexico playing? Wow - a whole cycle devoid of real qualifiers (to watch - I'd be ok with sole USA hosting and real games between Mexico and CR to watch). Killer.

 

So here's the trade-off. We lose the drama and spectacle of WC qualifying, so that 16 more countries that probably shouldn't be there anyway get 2 games in the Finals every 4 years?

Are you #$%^ing kidding me! First the Qatar WC, now we trash the qualifying process. Damn am I glad I took up playing golf again.

 

I really wish the USA wouldn't ever bid again until real change is seen in FIFA. After these next 2 pending attendance disasters they will need us to refill the coffers to hand out all those brown sacks of cash.

 

Attendance ticket sales mostly goes to the host countries, so FIFA does not care a lot about that revenue (I am sure they would hate to see half empty stadiums).

FIFA makes its money in sponsorship and TV money, as long as those keep coming in, FIFA will not change.

 

So talking about FIFA finances taking a hit.

Now sure how reliable this dude is, but.

Collapse in FIFA sponsorship $$ laid bare by P&L. Tier 1 almost halved, Tier 2 & 3 both down over 90% vs this time in previous cycle.

— Tim Crow (@shaymantim) April 7, 2017

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

 

Going to say the same thing as everyone else.

THIS IS F**** CRAZY. Not just normal stupid football administrators crazy, this is bat *** makes you wonder if they actually have a brain crazy. These people are in control of the biggest sporting event in the world, and they are trying to destroy it.

There are so many crazy levels to this thing where do we begin? The watering down of the competition is bad, making qualifiers formalities is going to suck but for me the worst part is the 3 team group format. This is awkward and weird and is going to lead to duller matches. No matter what.

Scenario A, they allow draws. Well in that case if you draw twice you're guaranteed to at least be in a tie for a qualifying spot. So everyone's first priority, especially early, will be not to lose.

Scenario B, penalty kicks in the group stage. Well then if you are the underdog then there is no benefit to attacking. Park the bus play for the draw because it could get you 3 points. 3 team groups reward teams trying not to lose no matter what rules you tweak.

What I really don't get is how this was the answer? I understand the desire/need, to get more countries in the world cup. But there are other ways to do that without completely F*** it up. You could have a play in tournament in the host country, or another country. You could have another tournament the summer after. Or you could even go to 64 teams. 64 teams would be watered down, and make qualification even more meaningless, but at least you would still have the mathematically perfect groups of 4 with 2 exiting each.

 

40 would've been a good number for expansion and would've actually made the tournament better. 8x5, 2nd and 3rd place teams advance, group winners get a bye. Still have an odd number of teams which makes collusion on the final match day possible, but far less likely with 5 team groups than with 3.