FIFA released the new rankings today. USA stayed #1 but not by much. Their rating dropped 87 points from 2197 to 2110. Sweden rose to #2 (I think for the first time?) with a rating of 2089 By winning Olympic Gold, Canada rose to #6 with a rating of 2021. We have a temporary flash flood warning with the possibility of Canadians on the rampage after "only" rising to #6. ("How can we be ranked #6 when we won the Olympic Gold Medal and we beat the #1 and #2 team?!") But then again, they're Canadians, so the flash flood will probably peter out to gentle streams leaving puddles of damp discontent. * The significant thing the ratings are saying about the US — They stay #1 but by seeing their rating drop to 2110, there are 5 teams now within 100 ratings points. At a 100 point difference (on neutral ground), the US expected win percentage would be about (.640) and the opponent's expected win pct would be about (.360). A team rated only 100 points below another has very significant chances of getting a draw or even an upset victory. The mere 21-point advantage the US now has over Sweden (2089) is insignificant. The 62 point advantage over #4 Netherlands (rating 2048) corresponds to an expected win pct of (.588), an edge but not much of one. * Ratings for the US opponents in the upcoming friendlies: Paraguay 1490 (ranked #50 just ahead of Jamaica) South Korea 1811 (ranked #18) * Expected win percentages (roughly) 0 rating point difference: = .500 100 points = .640 200 points= .760 300 points = .849 400 points = .909 500 point = .947
The FIFA rankings is a bit of a nerdy subject for many fans. It's understandable. But I think there are a couple good reasons for fans of women's soccer to start using ratings when talking about about soccer. Did anybody notice when the US played Portugal back in June, how Alexi Lalas said of Portugal, "they're a terrible team and they know they're terrible"? That didn't bother anyone else? I found it terribly disrespectful and I believe in respecting women's soccer, women soccer players and women's soccer teams. Obviously Portugal isn't a strong team, they're not a particularly strong opponent for the US. But is it necessary to then toss around mean phrases like being a "terrible team"? What are they then, if neither "terrible" nor "particularly strong"? The FIFA ratings system gives us a vocabulary. They're a 1650 team. They're a team who's been rated around 1650 for the last couple years. And that "last couple years" is significant because they were a 1550 team for a long time before that. So they've notably improved. They're now one of those European teams who are within sight of being a good team. They just missed out on qualifications to the Euros, for example. We should become familiar with what it means to be a 1650 team and an 1800 team and a 1900 team, just as chess players have been using a similar rating system for years and have a sense of knowing how strong a 1600 player is (bottom rung of "B" players), and an 1800 player (bottom rung "A" players), and a 2000 player ("Expert"), or 2200 ("Master"). We should start using ratings to help describe our opponents in friendlies. It's better than talking like Alexi Lalas. Who wants to be like Alexi Lalas?
Alexi Lalas needs to go away because he knows nothing about women’s soccer. Saying Portugal knows they’re terrible, he says that about any woso nat’l team that isn’t England, Canada, Australia, Netherlands, Sweden or Brazil. I feel like saying, dude just STFU how the hell do you know how these teams feel?
Lalas knows little more about men's soccer. He talks pretty much like he played defense, with great physicality and little true ability and less real care about being factual or reasonable but he did/does have a future because he manages to be popular among the "low brow" set and "they" have the power of numbers. I do not really enjoy Cobi Jones either but at least, usually, he stays on topic and does not, usually, try to place himself above the match or the players playing it. Of course most "color" commentators are little better as they are usually more about the "me" than they are about the players, match or the sport in general.
Lalas was a very important player in the history of USA soccer. His inept matador defense against Brasil in the 1998 Gold Cup gave Casy Keller probably the greatest performance ever by a USA keeper and made Preki’s lone goal one of the greatest in the history of the Gold Cup and USA soccer.