FIFA International Match Calendar: Proposed Changes & General Discussion

Yes, something like that.

If they stick with 4 x 4 team groups in League A, I suspect that only the top 2 teams will automatically qualify in each group (8), with the remaining places decided by 15 playoff ties featuring the other 8 League A teams and teams from Leagues B and C.

 

It seems that you don't understand much how the rankings work. You never lose (or gain) points by being in a competition or by how far you progress in one, you win/lose points by playing games.

And between the last two rankings Italy have played two games, one a win v Albania and one a loss v Austria. And as Austria is better ranked than Albania that meant an small overall loss of points.

Teams that went to the WC have played in several games there plus usually some friendlies too meaning they have a lot more rooms to gain/lose ranking points in the same time-span. Spain for example would have lost points in both of their draws (Germany and Morocco), they would have gained some points in their win against Costa Rica and they would have lost a lot of points on their loss to Japan. So overall they might have gotten to the second round but I'd expect them to lose quite a bit in the rankings.

 

Well, yes, I realize teams that played in the World Cup played more games than those that did not.

The point of my comment was to say that I don't agree with not punishing teams that failed to qualify. Well, technically I guess Italy got punished slightly, but dropping from 5th to 8th (from August 2021 to Jan 2023) in the rankings just seems way too small of a drop for failing to qualify (imo). Especially given the manner in which they failed to qualify.

The top 10 of the rankings should be difficult to be included in. It should consist of teams that have done well recently.

 

Yeah, but they only reached as high as #5 after winning the Euros. So dropped only 3 places for finishing behind Switzerland, losing to Macedonia and not playing in the WC.

I guess my argument isn't so much that #8 is too high for what Italy accomplished the past 4-5 years. Its that I think the ranking doesn't react fast enough to what's happening lately. They should have been higher than #5 in August 2021 and they should have dropped more than 3 places based on what they did in the year that followed.

Belgium is another example to illustrate this. They reached #1 after the 2018 WC, which perhaps made sense at the time and for a couple of years that followed. But from the end of the Euros to the start of the 2022 WC their results weren't at the standard of a #1 (especially when Brazil and Argentina hadn't lost a game in ages). It seemed everyone in the world knew this before the WC, except the FIFA rankings.

 

Yes, I tend to agree. Nobody could argue that the Nations League is meaningless if they did it this way. But please make the playoffs 2-legs! A big problem with the current qualifying in UEFA is that having both NL and Euro/WC qualifying doesn't leave time to play 2 legs in the playoff rounds.

I would keep the WC qualifying as it is. It is still the better format in cases where not that many teams qualify.

 

Think I'll have to quote one of my old posts from another thread.

The "new" FIFA ranking is slower to adjust than the old one was, and that is by design. Teams aren't (and shouldn't be IMO) punished for not qualifying, they gain/lose points depending upon the result in the matches they play. If you don't like how the rankings work then that's fine, it is a valid opinion, just don't expect the rankings (or the one doing them) to agree.

 

So in summary, Italy would currently be ranked lower than #8 if they had successfully qualified for Qatar but then finished third or fourth in their group.

Seems a bit counter intuitive to me. But at the same time, I acknowledge that this is just one specific example that I cherry picked. I could sorta see how on average this system would provide a better ranking than the old one which essentially rewarded teams for simply playing more games, even if their results weren't very good in those extra games.

 

It's only counter intuitive if you think that simply being at the WC is more important than the result in the games that took you there (or didn't as in Italy's case). I mean that is not a completely bonkers idea, the UEFA club rankings system awards loads of points for qualifying for each stage of the competitions (it can often account for 20+% of a teams ranking points).
On balance though, for NT rankings at least, I prefer to not have such bonus points, if nothing else those bonus points would introduce a lot of additional points into the rankings every time they are awarded which could skew the rankings a bit (unless you also subtract an equal amount of points from all teams that didn't make it to a WC or other tournament that you would award such points for).

No, not more games. The right games. The old system could be (and was) gamed. Friendlies was almost always bad for your ranking which is why some teams went 2 or so years almost without playing friendlies in wait (and hope) for a qualifier or WC draw taking place.

 

Yes, I think UEFA will eliminate single-leg playoff ties when they reveal the new European WCQ format.

 

Single leg playoffs were only used this time because COVID took time of the qualifiers, they are going to return to home and away playoffs next time.

I'm around 95% sure that they will use the same format as the new Woman's qualifiers format (https://www.uefa.com/insideuefa/new...fa-women-s-national-team-competition-system-/)

TL;DR In case you don't want to read the whole wall of the text:

• Top 8 teams of Nations League A will qualify automatically for the world cup / euros, depending on the edition.
• (A) Bottom 8 teams of league A will play in a home and away format against the 5 groups winners of League C and the 3 best runner-ups of League C
• (B) The best 12 teams of league B play against each other (home and away format)
• Winners of (A) and (B) face against each other (home and away format) with the eventual winners qualifying to the wc / euros

The big difference is that the Woman's NL has 3 Leagues (A, B, C) while the Men's one has 4 (A,B,C,D) so I presume it's going to be identical but they playoff paths will be (Winner of A vs D against the winner of B vs C)

That way they'll avoid having something like Italy vs Portugal in the playoffs (unless one of them gets relegated to League B)

 

Actually, now that you mentioned it, bonus points would be a good way to do this imo.

It wouldn't make sense to count WC qualifying games as much as WC final games in the ranking formula. So, giving bonus points for qualifying is a good middle ground. Just enough points to ensure that a team that finishes 3rd in a UEFA qualifying group and fails at qualifying doesn't get rewarded more than a team that wins the same qualifying group, but then "only" finishes third in their WC group.

 

I agree, except I expect they will move the League D teams to League C and have 6 groups in League C (5 groups x 4 teams and 1 group x 3 teams).

For the WCQ I expect they will have only have one round of home-and-away playoffs with the winners of the 8 ties qualifying: 4 x League A third-placed teams v. 4 x highest ranked League C group winners and 4 x League A fourth-placed teams v. 4 x League B group winners.

I do not expect that there will be promotion/relegation playoffs in qualifying seasons, so I expect the:
- 4 x League B group winners will be automatically promoted to League A and the 4 x League A fourth-placed teams will be automatically relegated to League B;
- 6 x League C group winners will be automatically promoted to League B and the 4 x League B fourth-placed teams and the 2 x lowest-ranked third-placed teams will be automatically relegated to League C.

Hopefully we will find out soon.

It is likely that the 2024/25 NL will be very important because it is likely that the only way to automatically qualify for the 2026WC will be from League A (the 2 x highest-ranked teams in each of the 4 groups).

 

I hope so. But they used single-leg playoffs in 2019 so its not a habit that started due to COVID.

Edit: Just remembering that the playoffs took place in late 2020, but the format had been decided before COVID was on anyone's radar.

 

Good thing they don't then.

 

??

Right, obviously not.

 

Spain will not lose points from drawing Morocco.

You can't lose points in knockout rounds even if you lose or draw.

 

This has been one of my main criticisms of FIFA ranking, is that it is TOO SLOW to react to current events and more importantly teams are ENTRENCHED in the bad or good positions they were placed in at the reset after 2018 WC.

You will see that teams that were ranked poorly at the reset largely remain poorly ranked even if they have done well.

Algeria ranked #40 after winning afcon in 2019

Qatar ranked #55 after winning Asian cup in 2019

Canada still ranked in the 50's after topping concacaf qualifying

Also teams that were ranked highly after the reset yet have had poor form REMAIN HIGH.

Mexico still #15 after poor WCQ and poor 2022 WC.

Belgium still #4 after poor WC.

My rankings address this flaw and I have a thread with an IMO improved ranking system.

https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/alternative-world-rankings-thread.2092151/page-8

 

Yea that's true, I forgot that FIFA put a hard cap on knock-out games (ELO doesn't). The overall point still stands though, a win v Costa Rica, a draw v Germany and a loss to Japan would mean a net loss of points (in both ranking systems).

 

No NL style qualifiers for UEFA teams after all! But nevertheless NL is expanding with a Final 8 instead of a Final 4 - featuring home-and-away quarterfinals in March before the Final 4 in June - together with promotion/relegation playoffs in March.

https://www.uefa.com/insideuefa/med...ts-for-uefa-men-s-national-team-competitions/

Graphic slides here:
https://editorial.uefa.com/resource...for_uefa_men_s_national_team_competitions.pdf

However, if FIFA agrees to seed the UEFA 2026 WCQ draw in December 2024 based on 2024/25 NL GS results, NL will obviously become very important for all teams. Incidentally, the euro2024 qualifying draw was based exclusively on 2002/23 NL GS results.

 

UEFA can seed as it likes for the Euro qualifiers, but FIFA rankings are required for the FIFA tournament.

 

Nothing about Conmebol joining the NL either.

Another beautiful cycle with south american teams playing each other 10 times.

 

From the last World Cup regulations:

The FIFA Organising Committee, based on the confederations’ needs and proposals, decides on the format of play and match calendar as well as the group formation of the preliminary competition... The decisions of the FIFA Organising Committee are final and not subject to appeal.

This will have to change for the 2026 UEFA WCQ format approved today to be feasible.

 

FIFA will rubber stamp whatever system UEFA comes up with for WQC, but if a seeded draw is part of the system then FIFA rankings will be used.