This dreadful season is now over. We have suffered through the longest winless streak in club history. We have missed the playoffs for the third straight season. By winning the match in Montreal today, we drop from the third pick to the fifth draft choice. We cannot win for winning. We have become the Cleveland Browns of Major League Soccer. We have become, the MLS version of the Factory of Sadness.
From a talent perspective, there are some reasons to be optimistic for 2013: A full season of Toja next year. The continued development of Rowe and Fagundez, who at the very least next year should evolve into solid pros. Bengtson and Sene, who will have hopefully at least 2/3rds of the season to evolve into a productive forward tandem. Assuming no trade, the Revs have 4 SuperDraft picks - maybe they'll finally hit big on one of them? There's also Nguyen and the possibility of Feilhaber still staying. However, there's still no confidence that either Burns or Heaps will competently fix the glaring issue with the team (the defense - particularly the fullback positions) and we'll still have to endure the slapdash marketing/promotion, minor league game day experience and the laughably/infuriatingly incompetent and apathetic communications staff. So yeah, sadness all around there.
Rep for summarizing the prevailing BS assessment of the 2012 Revs. Looking at the standings, though . . . * Revs finishing 16th in points * 15th in goals scored * 10th in goals against (possibly 9th, depending on Columbus's final game) * tied for 12th in goal difference If you are what the standings say you are, then the Revs are a team with a defense that is borderline playoff calibre and an anemic attack (where most of our talent is, according to BS). I guess you can take the view that our attack is weak in part because our backs don't hold possession and our fullbacks are ineffective when they attack. That may be true, but here's a prediction: I doubt that Heaps and the front office decide that the most critical need is replacing the back four. More likely, they look at the back line and decide they have a solid core of young defenders that is actually one of the strengths of the team. They maybe look for a left back, but in a move that is bad news for the blood pressure of BS posters, the new left back frees up Chris Tierney to return to the mid field, where he logs a lot of minutes in 2013. Trying to imagine how management views the 2012 season (and assuming for just a minute that they are not all idiots), it's really interesting to speculate on what Heaps and Burns think they have and what they think they need. I suspect they think they look at the -5 goal differential for the season and conclude that they are only missing a few pieces -- maybe one experienced, possession oriented defender, and one creative player to organize the attacking talent. Looking at this group . . . Sene, Bengtson, Fagundez, Imbongo Nguyen, Toja, Sims, Rowe, Benny, Cardenas, Gavin, Tierney, Guy Alston, McCarthy, Soares, Barnes, Polack Shuttleworth, Reis . . . which players do you think Heaps will bring back? I'm not asking which players you think he should bring back (that's been hashed out here in detail the last few months), but which do you think he will bring back? And what pieces do you think they will add over the winter? 1. Any signings? Do they sign people outright or do they wait and put potential signings through trials (a la Sene and Lechner)? 2. in the draft, do they take "best player available" or do they draft for positional needs? 3. What do they do with Reis and Benny? And one other thing that pops up from the (almost) final standings. Turns out the East is stronger than the West . . . Eastern Playoff teams are on average 3 points stronger than the West, and 43 points get you into the playoffs in the West while 49 leaves you out in the East. Speak up if you predicted in March that the East would be stronger than the West.
And rep to you for crystallizing the uncertainty about what is going on in the furrowed brows of JH and MB. It is certainly worrisome based on past practice that the FO will try to make us good enough with minor tweaks. My main reason for optimism is that JH seems completely invested in playing a style that demands technical skill. This leads me to hope that we will be discarding players without the technical ability to keep the ball in the faster pace of the new MLS. The players who have this level of skill are Toja, Bengtson, Rowe, Feilhaber, and Nguyen; Fagundez seems to be getting there. Simms and Gavin may have less skill, but have a gift for playing within the bounds of their ability. To me, having a minimum skill requirement should put Tierney, Guy, Shuttleworth and Brettschneider on the bus home (despite their great hearts), and put Alston, Soares, Barnes, and Cardenas on the bubble. Sene is an oddity, because he is one of, if not the only player who can find the back of the net, but whose close control is abysmal; for me, he should be a wild card coming off the bench. Lechner and Reis will stay or not depending on their affordability, and their health. Imbongo, Polak, Roach and Purdie will be trying out to keep their place on the bench, but should be long shots. Is Nyassi on the team? The question is, in the absence of an expansion draft (which Brad, of all people, implied that we needed in the last broadcast) how many places can we fill with technically sound players? The BS board math always seems to imply that we have loads of budget room to shop with, but then Bilello tells Monty that we have no money to spend, and leaves me wondering what is the FO's sense of what is possible? My sense of it is that if we can collect a defensive mid, a forward at least one fullback, and a centerback, all of whom are at least solid, if not above average MLS players, who can be counted on to keep the ball, and can add at least one or two rookies with promise, we'll be at least interesting to watch, and better than this year. SJ and Moreno's salaries should buy us at least two of these.
What puzzle are they trying to finish? The "Win 2 more games next year" puzzle? The "stumble into 10th" puzzle? The "Become a serious playoff contender" puzzle? The "Win MLS Cup Puzzle?" Fagundez, Imbongo and Bengston Nguyen, Sims, Rowe, Cardenas, Gavin, Tierney, Guy Alston, McCarthy, Soares, Barnes, Polack Shuttleworth It wouldn't be the REVs if they didn't begin buy getting rid of some of their best talent and nullifying a mid-season pickup or two. There will be signings and one or two will be true Burnsian head scratchers. Certainly, they will be LATE, which supports trials I guess. In the draft they take best available. Reis and Benny are gone because Heaps can't coach them. Based upon observing this year, Heaps had a preference for Tierney and Guy and didn't prefer Feilhaber. I'm not so sure he is invested so deeply. Perhaps I have just predicted that tomorrow will be more or less like today. But the pattern has been there for 5 years now.
1. There may be other factors influencing his relationship with BF having little to do with foot skills. 2. Life is a little less interesting if I assume that next year will be no different than the previous four, regardless if this is an irrational assumption.
I'm sure the goal for Heaps and Burns is winning MLS Cup. I'd guess their goal for 2013 would be more modest -- probably your option (c) become a serious playoff contender. You expect Reis and Benny to be gone -- neither of those would be surprising. But why would they dump Sene and Toja? Sene has not asked for a raise (that I know of), so his situation is not the same as Perovic.
Nice analysis. Thanks. I also find it encouraging that Heaps does seem to be committed to building a team that can play possession soccer. You covered everything except Mcarthy. Yes? No? Maybe?
I realize they will always say this but, watching other leagues, you will get goals other than, "My goal is to be champion of the league." For instance, newly promoted teams wanting to avoid relegation or mid table teams wanting to qualify for Europa League. Perhaps I can get away with calling them realistic goals? In short, I'm sure all of those teams have a vague goal of "winning it all." But, most of them don't have the budget, for one thing. In the crazy playoff system of MLS it is more possible for a low placing team to "win it all" (sic) but I don't think the REVs really have the budget for it to be likely (their owner is rich enough but appears uninterested in buying his way up the ladder). Option C is probably the best we can hope for, I agree. Sadly, they may conclude they've got the guys and just need "to gel." We all assume they will start with what they have and build from there. But, in their bizarre form of Moneyball or whatever it is that drives their thinking, they tear down before they start acquiring, keeping the Boggs and Shils around while dumping better talent (or Guys, Tierney, Brettschnieder maybe this year). Even though I feel a cap flame coming on, I think you should be mindful that they may well take several big steps backwards before they start making acquisitions. Sene is injured (was Perovic money or injury?). It is unclear Toja show game fitness...
I was thinking about McCarthy, and never got it down. I was satisfied with McCarthy this year in the sense that he was a rookie center back, and was impressed by his growth over the course of the year. He's tough enough, and is one of the best players on the team in the air. He is not yet a great, or even a good center back, however. His anticipation needs to improve a great deal, and he needs to pass much better out of the back. I think he could be greatly helped by having a veteran presence next to him - one of the reasons that the Bocanegra fantasy was so appealing. I would consider him one of the core players for next year - the only defender in that category - but like Fagundez, someone who needed to keep improving.
I disagree a bit in that I think Soares is the one more likely turn it around. While he had a significant sophomore slump he still had several strong games this season, and at least offensively he's been better in the air than McCarthy (Soares has 3 aerial goals to McCarthy's zero). I'm fine with both being in the CB rotation, I just don't think they work as a starting pairing.
I could not possibly disagree more RE: McCarthy. His entire defensive awareness is awful. Obviously that is somewhat to be expected from someone who is playing in a new position, but the level to which he sucked in that department is not something that fills me with any sort of confidence. Also, what is even more alarming to me, is that I think he got worse as the season went on. He became more aggressive, and was caught out of position far more as the season wore on. Whether it is coaching, or just his overall aptitude for the position, he really regressed from about June on. Not only that, but for a defensive midfielder to move to the backline, and be that bad in distribution...it was almost a joke at times. He has absolutely no awareness of where to go with the ball at times. Even when he wasn't under pressure he would either play the wrong ball, or put the ball in the wrong position to put someone under pressure. Not to mention the ridiculous searching balls for really no reason at all. I also don't think he is very good in containment. One of the most important jobs of a centerback is to slow down the attack and let the second and third defenders support you and win the ball. He constantly over-pursued, and allowed space to develop around him which leads defensive teammates out to dry. I honestly hope McCarthy is not in their plans for next year at CB. He is just not good enough for a team with any ambition of making the playoffs. I think he will make a decent 3rd option to fill in for games here and there, especially against poor teams, to give some rest to the two starters throughout the year. I do think Soares will improve, and a lot of AJ's issues have a lot to do with who is flanking him on the left and right. I was impressed at times with Soares' ability to settle down relative chaos created by a slow turnover machine at left back, and a CB partner with absolutely no defensive awareness. If they can pair him with even just a steady CB who is the arial winner, I think it will stabilize the backline. Left back is still a gapping concern, but the CB pair with Soares is more pressing.
And yet, their possessive game has not improved much at all. In fact, it has probably regressed as the season went on. The last month to six weeks of the season was some of the worst football I've seen this franchise play in the last couple years. I could have been watching the 2010 team for all I knew. Saturday's game was an absolute joke of possessive soccer. This myth about the possessive philosophy is getting totally ridiculous. Just because Heaps says it, doesn't mean it's actually happening. I've addressed this in other threads, but essentially it is ridiculous on two fronts. The first being that it isn't actually happening at all, so I don't understand why people think it is. The second being that this team doesn't have the players to be able to play it anyways, so that just shows the complete naivety of Heaps as a manager/coach.
Well said. People keep bringing up possession ... even when it's been shown that it's not true. Last game was 62-38 in favor of Montreal. Just because you keep repeating it, doesn't mean it's true folks.
I'm still in awe that with everything that went down in Philly this season--a total implosion of the coach (Nowak), the failure of Adu, the worst keeper in the league in Zac MacMath, they still finished ahead of us in the standings. That's how bad a year we had and there's no sugarcoating it.
and will be until the Krafts sell the team to someone who actually cares about soccer. Let's be honest-how much less could the Krafts care?
the Krafts only budget for 3-4 pro players at any given time. The rest are semi-pro college boys. Anyone who expects to be paid has to go.
But, wait... does that also apply to: Repeating over and over that you're spent to the cap? Repeating over and over that you were "this close" to signing that big name? Repeating over and over that you are "this close" to announcing a shiny new urban stadium? Repeating over and over that KIASB? Repeating that turf is as good as grass? Repeating over and over that everything is (was) fine with the Moreno signing?
Kape Guy said: " Trying to imagine how management views the 2012 season (and assuming for just a minute that they are not all idiots). Kape Guy, to make that assumption would soak up so much imagination that not even Da Vinci would have some to spare for "management view of the 2012 season".
So you're saying I have more imagination that Da Vinci? Thank-you. The level of hand-wringing around here would be comical, if it didn't pretty much end almost everyone's ability to give balanced analysis. The fans-turned-haters (formerly known as NNN's) are so blinded by their disappointment that their criticism has gone bombastic . . . so much so that we can't even consider the idea that maybe management are not idiots. I get it. You are disappointed.
I absolutely loathe these generalizations. It would be like me saying "those fans that don't see problems think that everything is right in the Revs world." A lot of, as you call them, "fans-turned-haters" still went to Montreal and sang their hearts out for the club. Were you there?