Because we're all experts, right? Some discussions don't warrant their own threads, and don't belong on a game thread, so here are. I'll start.
The long layoff does not seem to have hurt our position in the standings. I think we went into our little break in 3rd place and now sit in 4th. Dropping a spot has less to do with not playing and everything to do with the Sporks going on a ten-game undefeated run, taking 26 pts. out of a possible 30! Reno and Tulsa still have a game in hand, but they visit SLC and SPR this weekend, so I don't expect either to jump us (famous last words). No, wait, I'm an expert!
We will make the playoffs this season, but the inability to put the ball in 'da net, and our struggles in the midfield, will mean an early exit. On the upside, we will have a MLS expansion voucher as a consolation prize
And likely, no home field advantage- maybe first round if we finish fourth. The top 3 in the west this year are simply really good. San Antonio has only lost ONE game, and they're in third! Not very confident this year, it seems like we still haven't figured out our best starting 11 and subs
It doesn't surprise me that we are mid-table at this point. Considering we lost last year's top scorer, and last year's center back just before the season began. Then we lost the CB replacement with a broken foot, and our starting DM with a sports hernia. Then we lost our Midfield playmaker for what will be essentially the rest of the season. Even at this level, one player's quality can tip a game in his team's favor, yet we've lost our center core from front to back, and we're still hanging. I think that's a fair showing. Will they get better, and make a run to the top in the playoffs?.......i doubt it, but I've found it exciting seeing Casarez and DTS stepping up their game, Klimenta coming back from major surgery less than one year later, the emergence of Blackwood in the offense, and a fairly deep Open run. By measure of trophies, this might not be a great year, but it has been entertaining so far!
Aaaand, of course, Reno goes on the road and pounds the Sporks 4-1. Told 'ya it would be famous last words.
Lol, this is why experts with opinions make their money on "subscriptions", not on betting their "predictions."
Hey all, It annoys me no end when I look at the standings and see that some teams have SO MANY games in hand (hello OC) over other teams (Colorado Springs) that it's really hard to tell who is really ahead of whom. So I've been playing around with my dataviz skills and have created a graph that shows each team's point progression vs. number of games played. So I can see that, yes, OC is 2 points behind Colorado Springs in the standings, but with 5 games in hand, is probably really well ahead of them. Yes, I knew this intellectually when looking at the table, but it helps me to see the picture. I also played around with subtracting the number of games played from the point total for each team. This has the benefit of showing a team going DOWN when they lose a game, staying level when they draw, and going up when they win, but without changing their relative positions. It's sort of like rotating the picture clockwise a bit. This really does visually show OC above Colorado Springs, for instance (and Tulsa and OKC for that matter), giving what I think is a better indication of where they are in the standings. Of course, they could lose their next 5 games, but the odds of that are low. This is far from perfect at this point. I don't love the (default) color scheme, and I would love to make it interactive so you can remove the teams you don't care about to better see the teams you do. But I thought you'd like to see what I've got so far. Suggestions welcome!
That's awesome, especially the 2nd graph. Were there no ties week one? There seem to be just two starting points.
Excellent work, joelrip! I think that second graph is awesome. I tried something similar in Excel the first year, and quickly found that the unbalanced schedules were a major PITA when trying to extrapolate future rankings. I think you're on to something with that second graph!
A little graphical update. With San Antonio and Swope Park continuing to fail to win, Sac and Reno suddenly look within striking distance of the top 3. Followed by Tulsa, and then Colorado Springs, which continues to have played a misleadingly large number of games. OC has faded, but still has enough games in hand to be considered a top 8 team. And if you're interested in the Eastern Conference...things are much tighter over there. Remember, these graphs show points minus games played (or -1 for a loss, 0 for a draw, and 2 for a win), to give a better idea of how teams that have played different numbers of games really compare to each other in the standings.
Too many teams, not enough colors. Better to have points than games in hand. You still have to win those games and, especially in the case of OC, do so over a compressed schedule. Without looking at their schedule, if they have a lot of travel plus mid-week games, it just might be too much to overcome. At least with our schedule, it's back-loaded with home games, until the final three that is.
I'm off camping, be back Friday for my Republic-fix. In that context, it will be a very long four days.
All too true. True enough, but all they have to do is average a draw over their next 5 games (or win one for every two they lose), and they'll be one point behind Colorado Springs when they've played the same number of games. Put another way, at the "Game 19" point in the season, OC was/is 6th in the standings, even though the table doesn't show it.
Did I mention earlier how I wanted to make my charts interactive? Boom! https://joelrip.github.io/USLTracker/ Suggestions for improvement enthusiastically accepted.
For what it's worth, I'm updating this about once a week. https://joelrip.github.io/USLTracker/ I could really use live access to the Opta stats. Would love to set this up to update automatically at the end of each game....
I didn't really mean to hijack this thread with this, but thought I should share that I've now updated the site to track MLS standings too. Because I just can't help myself. https://joelrip.github.io/StandingsTracker/
I know, I know, you're sick of my continual posting on this. But I've added what is (probably) the last real upgrade to my charts. After a bunch of math fun this weekend, I've upgraded the charts to show a "clinched playoffs" zone and a "mathematically eliminated" zone. Because really, the whole point of tracking standings in the regular season is to see who gets into the playoffs and in what position, right? I find this a lot of fun to look at. https://joelrip.github.io/StandingsTracker/ The charts really highlight the difference between the wide point spread in the Western conference (where T2 is out, Monarchs in, and SA on the edge of in) vs the Eastern conference (where the teams have played an average of one more game than in the Western conference, but only Toronto is definitively out). Actually, the difference between the conferences is more dramatic in MLS, where Toronto is blowing everyone out of the water in the East (the polar opposite of Toronto II), but the Western conference is super tightly packed. In any case, those light gray "cones of uncertainty" as I call them are going to collapse to a point pretty fast over the last few games. I find this almost as much fun to watch as an actual soccer game....
Joelrip, I'm really enjoying what you're doing with this! I tried something similar in the '14 and '15 USL seasons, but your charts are much more useful. The trick now is to turn the model into a predictor. I tried it back then by comparing each teams' ppg average for each specific opponent against their remaining opponents. The whole thing kinda flopped when the majority of Western Conf team playoff positions weren't decided until the last game anyway - for both seasons. At that point I deleted Excel from my computer amd went back to playing FIFA 15. All the best!
Thanks! I'd love to build up a model to make predictions, though that will probably have to wait for a bit. Right now all I've got is pretty graphs that allow you to make essentially visual predictions. What I really want to do is create an Elo rating system for all professional soccer teams in the US, so you can compare any two teams and calculate the odds for who will win any given game. Some day....
Man, this is going to be one heck of an ending to the 2017 season. We've got 5 back-to-back Sat-Wed-Sat-Wed-Sat games against the (currently) #8 (H), #1 (H), #5, (H), #9 (A), and #10 (A) teams, followed by a luxurious Wednesday off, then a final Sat against #2 (A). Every single one of those is going to be a hard fight for playoff position. If we remain in 6th place for the playoffs, I'll call it a win.
Well, we're trying pretty hard not to get into the playoffs, but we'll probably back in and play one of Swope Park, San Antonio, or Reno, which as far as records are concerned are all about the same team. Though probably best case is Reno, so we can attend in force, no? The chart in the East is interesting. Charlotte has been trying desperately to not get into the playoffs, matched only by Harrisburg's desperate attempt to get in. Unfortunately, both have failed in their quest, too little too late. https://joelrip.github.io/StandingsTracker/#usl