The question is not what I can expect from the USMNT in the Hex, it is what can I expect from a USMNT burdened by being "led" by General Egg. Thus an expectation of being, at worst, in 2nd place in the Hex slides down to "qualifying in a fight not to have to go through the Interfederation stage". So, yeah, I expect we qualify... ......Three Huzzahs for General Egg!...
if you think the incoming talent should buoy the team upwards, remember how much of it he has incorporated, how inertial his rosters are, and note that after a single march international break, we will play 8 games that count in a row. a conservative coach sending prospects to the olympics instead, and facing our schedule, wouldn't be bringing in many U20s or U23s til next year, if at all. this is not klinsi calling in pulisic for guatemala games. if you haven't broken in the next 4 games you won't be seen much for 2020 unless we absolutely crash, and even then his canada game 2 roster suggests he will double down. this is not what i wish. but it's what i get from a man who just sent roldan home because he doesn't need to see more.
The problem is we are in a peak of positivity right now with our talent. Reyna seeing minutes. Vassilev with a couple appearances. Dest still looking good. Adams back. Chandler even getting burn... Like juve says, none of this matters if Egg keeps going with the status quo. Is he going to be comfortable bringing in Reyna after a couple friendlies for games that matter? Or will he go back to what he's comfortable with? I have a strong guess. Many, though, are expecting a sudden change due to this roster and Mcbride. I hope so, but will believe it when I see it. Again, maybe the fortuitous Bradley injury forces his hand, cuz he'd be the fulcrum of the team if not.
That team with their coach would absolutely obliterate our team with our coach. It’s not the “club resume hex” and even if it were, all of those guys play at higher levels than all but 3 of ours.
That assumes our manager calls half those guys up to the senior team as opposed to sending them to the Olympics “because experience”
Their coach is materially better than ours but they have four players in the majors who are getting regular minutes. Our player’s collective ceiling is higher than theirs.
the team with the higher ceiling should win the game. the concept that we shouldn’t expect to win the Hex is ridiculous and defeatist. We have the talent to beat every team and should certainly do so at home. lowering our expectations because we have a substandard coach is crazy - the standard is to win the hex or at a minimum come very close.
I should elaborate and say that assuming all the high-ceiling players pan out on a linear path and that simultaneously, our current manager figures out how to put his players in positions to succeed is not a sound plan for success. It’s far more likely than not, for example, that half the high-ceiling guys flame out due to the natural attrition that happens (and has happened to our prospects year after year), and the ones who do pan out don’t reach their ‘best-case” ceiling, but rather end up as useful players with flaws. Meanwhile, it’s more likely our manager continues to persist with a system that doesn’t ever end up looking good at the international level, makes poor use of the higher end talent that does develop and results in disjointed performances that never result in cohesive play or impressive results, and we finish 3rd or 4th based solely on individual efforts. “Everything goes as planned” with prospects has very, very rarely been a good plan.
Ceiling has never won a game. Talent has, but those are different things. You’re conflating the potential for these guys to be impact players with actually having impact, and you’re massively understating the chasm in class between managers. Even if I accept the hypothesis that the talent gap is close (which I definitely do not), the talent will always be put at a disadvantage by poor coaching, unless the talent on your side is so much better than the other guys that it doesn’t matter if an idiot manages them.
He's not underestimating the managers. He's saying that the talent is very close, and it is. We have younger players already performing at high levels, it doesn't matter much about their ceiling. Adams and Pulisic, steffen, Dest, Sargent, McKennie, etc. are all playing at levels that equal or surpass any Mexican player. We have some players like Reyna, who if keep developing on similar trajectory, will give us fairly obvious superior talent. The talent gap is nonexistent. In this case, I can buy the experience may help the Mexicans, since they have done this all before. And certainly, the real difference is the managers. Unless egg shapes up quickly, we're looking at a qualification struggle.
Top three, and that's shooting low for our squad. But, I think even Berhalter qualifies, dependent on a few players returning to health and staying fit. If our qualifying campaign goes like the last year with no Adams, Pulisic in and out of the team, McKennie out on multiple occasions, Brooks gone missing, etc. We could really struggle. While we have good talent in most positions, we are razor thin as always in top end talent. An injury hit year when all is on the line could make for some really bad results. Past qualification we could be a team needing everyone healthy to not drop off rapidly and get a beating .in Qatar.
I also believe we finish top three. (Probably third) Given our current pool and the depth thereof I do not think even Berhalter can screw it up bad enough for the US to fall lower than that in the hex since the teams come from CONCACAF and CONCACAF's quality falls off rapidly below Mexico. (and hopefully the US) Yes, we will struggle away to some of the teams and we have little chance of beating most teams in the hex away BUT we should win at home against everyone except Mexico, and that is still a possible win, and we also should pull of a few ties away and that should be good enough for at least third. I have little confidence that Berhalter can put a team together that will get more than one away win but that should not matter because I do believe we will win at home. That assumes that the powers that be do not make our home games away games by choosing stadiums badly. We have the talent to win the hex so finishing third is well within possibility.
It would be extremely difficult for us to not out perform our results last Hex. I'm assuming we will qualify rather easily. Were not likely to reach our potential under the current management though...IMO. Personally, I think a healthy Adams is going to make a big difference with this team. That's assuming GGG does not do anything too stupid like using Yueill as a focal point and placeholder while waiting for MB's return...just in time for the beginning of the Hex.
The talent level hasn't caught up to Mexico yet. I have a couple key reasons for believing this. One, while you can compare clubs and whatever up and down the line, aside from Pulisic, Adams and McKennie, many times the club affiliation is inflated our players because they are there because of potential, not performance. Does anyone believe that Josh Sargent would outplay Chicharito right now because he's in the Bundesliga and Chicharito is in MLS? Or that we should put Sargent on an equal platter with Raul Jimenez? Right now, are Gio Reyna and Hirving Lozano of equal impact? No. Club is a great data point, but it's not a complete picture of expected performance. Number Two is even more important. It's depth. The US doesn't have enough good players to even really fill out a full lineup, much less sustain any injuries. Mexico does. We can write out lists that say Pulisic, Adams, McKennie, Brooks, etc... but they've never been healthy all at the same time or even close. Adams played one match last year. Pulisic picks up a bunch of dings and dents all the time. McKennie plays recklessly at times. Brooks is Brooks. And so on. I'd love for us to play Mexico at full strength, but will we ever have the chance? If we're talking the whole hex ... then depth is even more important.
it is by far the best team in its league and is really crafted to compete at the UCL level not in its domestic league given its payroll. Similar to PSV/Ajax. 538 has it ranked as the 30th best team in the world.
Ok that is sensible. So good teams can be “major league” teams. Then how do you see Monterrey who lost in the semis of the club World Cup to Liverpool in injury time?
It doesn’t seem like club was used but the clubs league. So a team like Düsseldorf is ranked “major” while a team like Monterrey is not.
Why do you bring up a point like this? Like somebody thinks Reyna and Lozano are equal? Or Sargent is better than Jimenez, who bangs in goals for a mid-table EPL squad? Reyna hasn't even been called up and is 17, yet you're comparing (or claiming some are/may compare) him to Mexico's best player? Why stop there - is there anyone claiming Vassilev is better than any of Mexico's attackers? How about picking Chandler, Dest, Steffen, Morales, Adams, Brooks, Yedlin, CP, McKennie, Sargent...These are all guys getting legitimate minutes on legitimate teams. That doesn't even include our presumptive starting striker and winger (Jozy/Morrs). You want to discuss depth, that's likely a better case you can make, since we have very little.
Did you really ask why I compared Sargent to Mexico's strikers, claiming I was making comparisons no one was ... and then proceed to use him in a list I can only assume was an attempt to compare him to Mexico's team? My point #1 is simple. You can compare lists of clubs and talk yourself into the US being close to Mexico (Morales = Top 4 League! Sargent = Top 4 League!). If you actually compare the players though, you come up with a bigger gap. Would you honestly rather have Timmy Chandler or DeAndre Yedlin than Rodolfo Pizarro? The depth point is real, as well, as you note. But I'd add another angle to it in addition to injury. Of the people you listed above -- there are 10 -- there are 3 RBs and just two attacking players. So it's not just if people get hurt -- we really can't field a complete XI (as our LB troubles demonstrate). I think over the next year or so, we will start to fill in those gaps and start to catch up to Mexico. And I think we have enough to qualify. But our talent isn't quite there yet.
they lost one close match so I don’t see much. I see they placed 8th and are now 15th this season in LigaMX. I also think that the concacaf team has placed third three times in the past 19 years in FIFA club World Cup. That’s a lot of history.