With the league winding down for the final 6 rounds (for most), how does everyone think the European places are going to get fleshed out? Currently, we're standing at: 1. Man United. 71 pts, +33 gd 2. Liverpool.. 70 pts, +38 gd ------------- 3. Chelsea.... 67 pts, +35 gd 4. Arsenal.... 61 pts, +26 gd ------------- 5. Aston Villa 53pts , +6 gd 6. Everton.... 52pts, +13 gd 7. West Ham... 44 pts, +1 gd ------------- 8. Fulham..... 43 pts, +5 gd 9. Tottenham.. 41 pts, +2 gd 10. Wigan..... 41 pts, -5 gd There are 3 dividing lines - top 2 go into the Champions League proper. The next 2 go into Champions League qualifying (which is much tougher next year as opposed to the minnows they've faced in the past). Positions 5-7 are going to the Europa Cup. For the top 2 spots... Man United - v Portsmouth, v Tottenham, @ Middlesbrough, v Man City, @ Wigan, v Arsenal, @ Hull City - I figure they're going to stumble to 2 more draws - rest are wins to finish on 88 pts. Liverpool - v Arsenal, @ Hull, v Newcastle, @ West Ham, @ West Brom, v Tottenham - At most, they drop 2 points against Arsenal, but I really see them running the table for 88 pts - it winds up coming down to goal differential and right now, they are superior to Man United and scoring better - you gotta give them the advantage, but you never know. They have the advantage (in terms of games and being fresh) of already being out of the FA Cup and soon to be out of the Champions League. Chelsea - v Everton, @ West Ham, v Fulham, @ Arsenal, v Blackburn, @ Chelsea - they have 3 straight London derbies with 2 of them on the road - no way they take full points out of those - they'll get 4-6 points out of those 9 available. They'll take full points from the other 9 and finish with about 81 pts. Therefore, Liverpool and Man United finish 1-2 in some order and take the automatic spots in the CL. There is no contest for 4th spot, Arsenal have it wrapped up - so Chelsea and Arsenal are locks for the CL qualifiers. For the Europa Cup, Aston Villa and Everton have the first 2 spots locked up. That leaves the final spot from West Ham, Fulham, Tottenham & Wigan. Man City was knocked out of that running by their loss at home to Fulham today. West Ham - @ Aston Villa, v Chelsea, @ Stoke, v Liverpool, @ Everton, v Boro - I figure they finish L-L-D-L-D-W and finish on 49 pts. Fulham - @ Boro, v Stoke, @ Chelsea, v Aston Villa, @ Newcastle, v Everton - I figure they finish with W-W-D-D-L-D and finish on 52 pts Tottenham - v Newcastle, @ Man United, v West Brom, @ Everton, v Man City, @ Liverpool - they go W-L-W-L-W-L down the stretch to finish on 50 pts. Wigan - @ Blackburn, v Bolton, @ West Brom, v Man United, @ Stoke, v Portsmouth - they go D, W, L, L, L, W down the stretch and finish on 48 pts. Fulham takes the final Europa Cup spot. Even if things don't quite work out this way on the point totals, Fulham still has the advantage over all the others for the final spot in goal difference to win any tie breakers. Final Standings 1. Man United. 88 pts 2. Liverpool.. 88 pts ------------- 3. Chelsea 4. Arsenal ------------- 5. Aston Villa 6. Everton 7. Fulham..... 52 pts ------------- 8. Tottenham.. 50 pts 9. West Ham... 49 pts 10. Wigan..... 48 pts
Actually, next year the top 3 make the group stage, and only number 4 goes to the qualifiers. See http://www.uefa.com/competitions/ucl/format/newsid=788260.html
I'd like Aston Villa or Everton to finish ahead of Arsenal, who still has to play the three teams ahead of them. Everton has to go to Chelsea and Aston Villa's best remaining opponent is 7th place West Ham United. The original post says Chelsea's last game is "@ Chelsea" but the game is really at Sunderland. When I saw that from April 18 through April 22 there were 10 games I assumed that each team would play exactly once, but that isn't the case. Portsmouth, who has one fewer game played, plays April 18 and April 22, with the latter game against Manchester United who also has one fewer game played. Wigan Athletic doesn't play again until April 26 and soon they will have one fewer game played which will be made up when they host Manchester United on May 13.
I agree - I'd LOVE to see Aston Villa take the 4th spot - but given their recent form (poor) and Arsenal's recent form (good) - I just don't see it happening - even with Arsenal having the tougher schedule. Up until about 3 weeks ago, I figured that the schedule down the stretch combined with the number of games Arsenal still has left would give Aston Villa the advantage. But I no longer believe that. Also, I will admit that my "prediction" of Fulham gaining 7th is as much or more what I want to have happen as it is an honest prediction of what I think will happen. On the other hand, the prediction that Liverpool & Man United could end up even on points and decided on goal differential (currently giving the title to Liverpool) is more about looking at how both teams are playing. I WANT ManU to stay on top.
Hopefully we'll miss out on Europe - we will anyway, because we just cant score - it would be too early for the club.
I really just don't see Arsenal dropping enough points. Everton were 9 points behind with only 6 games left when I originally posted this. Arsenal drops 2 last night. Everton are short of scoring right now - sure they can shut someone down and hold a 0-0 draw. That gets them to PK's in the FA Cup, but in league, that just gets them a point. If they run the table, Everton winds up on 70 points. Arsenal have 5 games left and much better goal differential, so realistically, they only have to get to 70 points to lock up 4th spot. 8 points out of 5 games could easily come with 3 points each from Middlebrough & Portsmouth and most likely also from Stoke. If Everton drop 2 or more points tonight against Chelsea, then Arsenal only need 6 points to wrap up 4th. Sorry, Everton really have no realistic shot at 4th. Just like despite Wenger's recent comments, I don't think Arsenal have a realistic shot at 3rd. Just too many points to make up in too few games.
Two round left now and some things have been decided. Currently, we're standing at: 1. Man United. 83 pts, +42 gd 2. Liverpool.. 80 pts, +46 gd 3. Chelsea.... 77 pts, +41 gd ------------- 4. Arsenal.... 68 pts, +28 gd ------------- 5. Aston Villa 58 pts , +5 gd 6. Everton.... 57 pts, +14 gd 7. Fulham..... 50 pts, +6 gd ------------- 8. Tottenham.. 48 pts, +1 gd 9. West Ham... 48 pts, -2 gd 10. Man City.. 47 pts, +8 gd The top 3 are set in terms of going to the Champions League Group stage, but the position could change for the league title and/or for 2nd. Man United - @ Wigan, v Arsenal, @ Hull City - Three points on Wed against Wigan all but locks up the title for Man United. Even with a loss against Arsenal, they'd only need a point in the final week to clinch. Liverpool - @ West Brom, v Tottenham - Should wind up 2nd. Chelsea - v Blackburn, @ Sunderland - Should wind up 3rd. It would take not only Liverpool slipping up one of their last two games AND overcoming 5 goals to take 2nd. Arsenal already has 4th clinched - can't go up and nobody can catch them. For the Europa Cup, Aston Villa and Everton have the first 2 spots locked up in some order. Aston Villa - @ Middlesbrough, v Newcastle - playing two teams that are clawing for their life (although Boro really is likely done). They really need 6 points, but 4 would probably be enough if they want to stay in 5th. Everton - v West Ham, @ Fulham - playing two teams fighting for the last European spot. Everton should win at home, but playing at Fulham is very tough these days. Most likely going to finish 6th. Back in my original post, I figured Wigan was still in it and Man City had been knocked out. At this point, Wigan has been eliminated and Man City still has a shot. Fulham - @ Newcastle, v Everton - I initially figured Fulham would finish with L-D in their last 2 games. But given recent form, I am going to say they get at least 2 and possibly 3 points out of the final two games and finish on 52-53 pts. Tottenham - v Man City, @ Liverpool - they go W-L down the stretch to finish on 51 pts. West Ham - @ Everton, v Boro - I figure they finish L-W and finish on 51 pts. Man City - @ Tottenham, v Bolton - A loss at Tottenham combined with any points from Fulham this week does officially knock them out of the running for 7th. I figure they go L-W and finish on 50 pts. In the end, it finished just like it stands right now with the possible exception of Aston Villa & Everton swapping spots (but that doesn't affect the European entries). Final Standings 1. Man United 2. Liverpool 3. Chelsea ------------- 4. Arsenal ------------- 5. Aston Villa 6. Everton 7. Fulham ------------- 8. Tottenham 9. West Ham 10. Man City
Quick update: Fulham and Tottenham both won while West Ham lost, meaning that Fulham can basically clinch 7th place (last Europa spot) with a draw home to Everton (a win definitely secures it). Tottenham are at Liverpool, and need to win to have any hope.
How does the EPL Fair Play Table relate to the Europa Cup? Does the winner get a spot? Looks like Fulham will win the spot if that's how it works...so does another team like Everton get it? http://www.premierleague.com/page/FairPlayTable/0,,12306,00.html
Fulham are at the top of the Fair Play table for the EPL and so would get it if the EPL earned a spot. The EPL would need to be in the top 3 leagues in Europe to receive an extra fair play entrant and UEFA announced on May 8 that the top 3 leagues are Scotland, Norway and Denmark. So no entrant via fair play this year. Here is an article discussing England's entries to Europa. http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/story?id=645266&cc=5901