I think that the official UEFA club ranking system could be improved. Currently, it gives points based on the farthest round reached by a team, and other points for its victories and draws in the Group Stage. I thought about a method that takes into account also: how the team is eliminated or successfully passes a round (2 wins is different from 2 draws, for example) the goals difference the opponent team For every match that a team plays, I calculate: number of points made, goals scored and goals conceded, relative strength of the opponent (determined by its results in the European Cups in the previous three seasons). Starting from the Round of 16, bonuses will be given for each round successfully passed; from the same round, Champions League teams will get a bonus over the Europe League ones. You find the complete system’s explanation on this post in my blog. Regarding the 2014/2015 season, Dinamo Zagreb (Croatia) is currently the top team in the ranking. The second team, Legia Warsaw (Poland), was punished by UEFA for fielding an ineligible player in their 2-0 second leg's win over Celtic in the third qualifying round. Therefore I decided to consider it as a 0-3 lost, as stated by the official UEFA sentence. You find the complete ranking for the 2014/2015 season here. The strongest teams are still far from the top positions, since they started playing only in the Group Stage. They will accumulate points as they advance in the Cups. I would like to know what do you think about this system, and how I could improve it.
I don't like clubs having negative scores. Is their a minimum possible score? I would perform some type of transformation of the numbers to eliminate negative scores. The simplest way to do that would be to add 38.78 to every score (-38.78 is the lowest value).
Thanks Evan, I agree with you. As you can read here ("International Cups" paragraph) I already did for the last season the same adjustment you suggested, but now I have changed the most part of the calculation system, and the top scores will be much lower than the last season's ones, so I think that too much points would be added to the top scores in this way. Therefore, at the end of the season I will adjust all the scores, keeping the highest as it will actually be, considering the lowest as 1 (one) point, and changing consequently all the intermediate scores. I will add this "international" score to another score that I am calculating for the domestic competitions, so I want that all the teams that play the European Cups get at least one "international" point, otherwise it wouldn't be fair for them. Maybe I could do this adjustment for the negative scores not only at the end of the season, but also at the end of each round, so there won't be a suddenly change in May.
After the third matchday of the Group Stage, the first positions are the following: 1° Legia Warsaw (Poland) 246,58 points 2° Villareal (Spain) 225,50 3° Dinamo Minsk (Belarus) 213,09 As explained in the previous post, I made a correction in order to not have negative scores. The complete ranking is here. The system explanation is here.
After the 4th matchday of the Group Stage, the top three positions are the following: 1° Legia Warsaw (Poland) 286,57 points 2° Dynamo Moscow (Russia) 247,97 3° Sparta Prague (Czech Republic) 242,78 They are all playing in the Europa League. The best club in the Champions League is Porto (Portugal), with 231,16 points; they are 4th in the overall ranking. The complete ranking is here. The explanation of the system is here.
After the Group Stage, the top three positions are the following: 1° Legia Warsaw (Poland) 325,83 points 2° Dynamo Moscow (Russia) 322,06 3° Villareal (Spain) 289,95 They are all playing in the Europa League. The best club in the Champions League is Porto (Portugal), with 278,58 points; they are 5th in the overall ranking. The complete ranking is here. The explanation of the system is here.
After the Round of 16, the top three positions are the following: 1st - Villareal (Spain) 414,77 points 2nd - Club Brugge (Belgium) 394,84 3rd - Dynamo Moscow (Russia) 380,85 Villareal and Dynamo Moscow have already been eliminated from the EL, while Club Brugge is still in the competition. The best club in the Champions League is Porto (Portugal), with 358,46 points; they are 4th in the overall ranking. The complete ranking is here. The explanation of the system is here.
Hi everyone, sorry if I'm posting in the wrong thread. I want to ask, is there a club ranking (no matter only Euro clubs) similar to FIFA/ELO rankings at NT level? I found this: http://clubelo.com/ Very accurate for recent years, but poor for the initial years (1950s in this model) Cheers
Hi, what do you mean with NT level? National Teams? For the clubs, I found: http://footballdatabase.com/ http://www.soccer-rating.com/football-club-ranking/ http://www.eloratings.net/ but I don't know how much accurate they are. If you don't find what you want, try creating a new thread in this same forum (statistics and analysis).
The final ranking for this season is: Barcelona (ESP) 463,05 points Villareal (ESP) 419,18 Club Brugge (BEL) 405,88 Best teams for each of the 10 main football associations: Belgium: Club Brugge 405,88 England: Arsenal 254,56 France: Monaco 215,03 Germany: Bayer Leverkusen 284,10 Italy: Napoli 327,15 Netherlands: Feyenoord 303,27 Portugal: Porto 390,75 Russia: Dynamo Moscow 384,90 Spain: Barcelona 463,05 points Ukraine: Dynamo Kyiv 279,98 You can see the complete ranking in my blog. From the next season I will multiply by 0,50 the scores obtained in the qualifying rounds, playoffs (both UCL and UEL) and round of 32 (only UEL, of course).
Thanks, The first one looks better than the second, concerning clubs, I also prefers the ELO rankings over FIFA's for National Teams. Much more providing historical rankings.
Sorry, I posted an old ranking. The final top 3 positions are: 1) Barcelona (ESP) 714,13 points 2) Juventus (ITA) 499,87 3) Porto (POR) 499,14 Best teams for each of the 10 main football associations: Belgium: Club Brugge 419,32 England: Arsenal 287,68 France: Monaco 260,56 Germany: Bayer Leverkusen 342,74 Italy: Juventus 499,87 Netherlands: Feyenoord 313,31 Portugal: Porto 499,14 Russia: Dynamo Moscow 397,64 Spain: Barcelona 714,13 points Ukraine: Dynamo Kyiv 289,25 You can see the complete ranking in my blog.
Hmm for me it's confusing to see Feyenoord this high. Is that because they were able to beat Sevilla in the group stage? Except for that match I think PSV and Ajax actually did better in Europe.
Thank you for the question, at least someone looks at my work. LOL. Feyenoord got so much points mainly because in the group stage they won twice against Standard Liege. Am I joking? No. Here is the explanation: Every team has a coefficient calculated at the beginning of the season, based on their performance in the European Cups in the previous 3 years. Feyenoord did bad in the previous three season: 2011-2012: didn't participate 2012-2013: lost both the 3rd turn (in CL) and the playoff (in EL) 2013-2014: lost the playoff (They didn't win a single round in three years). Standard Liege did much better: 2011-2012: started from the 3rd qualifying turn, eliminated in the round of 16 2012-2013: didn't participate 2013-2014: started from the 2nd qualifying round, eliminated in the group stage Summing-up: at the beginning of the 2014-2015 season, Feyenoord had a coefficient of 30,36 and Standard Liege of 53,18. The difficulty coefficient for Feyenoord against SL was thus quite high (53,18/30,36=1,75). Feyenoord won 2-1 and 3-0 the two matches, so they scored (points+(GF-GA)/2,5)* coeff * 10 = (6+(5-1)/2,5) * 1,75 * 10 = 133 points. However, starting from 2015-2016 I will make some changes to the calculation system: the points for the qualifying rounds, playoffs and round of 32 will be decreased (I think by a 50%); the team coefficient will be based on the last 5 years, instead of 3; the team coefficient will be calculated on a corrected score, which doesn't allow negative values.
For this season (2015/2016) I have slightly modified the calculation system, as follows: the clubs and national coefficients are calculated on a 5-year basis (instead of 3-year); the 5-year club coefficient are calculated on a corrected score, which doesn't allow negative values; the Round Score of qualifying rounds, playoffs and Round of 32, if positive, is halved. After the third matchday of the Group Stage, the top three positions are: 1° Midtjylland (Denmark) 177,61 points 2° Monaco (France) 162,55 3° Rapid Wien (Austria) 156,35 They are all playing in the Europa League after being eliminated from the UCL. The best club in the Champions League is Wolfsburg (Germany), with 120,73 points; they are 12th in the overall ranking. The complete ranking is here. The explanation of the system is here.
After the Round of 16, the top three positions in the 2015/2016 season are: 1st - Wolfsburg (Germany) 330,91 points 2nd - Paris Saint-Germain (France) 267,01 3rd - Bayern Munich (Germany) 265,48 The reason why Wolfsburg is at the top place with so many points more than the second, is that they are the worst team still in the competition, considering the scores of the last 5 years, so all their matches have a high coefficient. The complete ranking is here. The explanation of the system is here.
At the end of the 2015/2016 season the best team is Wolfsburg (Germany), with 457,63 points. The high score is due to their coefficient, 32,72, one of the lowest of this year's Cups. The coefficient was low because in the last 5 years Wolfsburg took part only in 2014-2015 Europa League's, having not be able to qualify in the previous 4 years. This year they were eliminated by Real Madrid in the quarter-finals, but they managed to get a lot of points having beaten the Blancos 2-0 in the first leg. The difficulty coefficient for that round was very high, 2,437, so they got 127 points even having lost 0-3 in Madrid. Before that, they had won the Group Stage with 12 points (4 wins and 2 losses), and beaten Gent in the Round of 16 (3-2 and 1-0). The second team in the ranking is Bayern Munich (Germany) with 408,60 points, and the third one is Manchester City (England) with 369,54 points. The best team in Europa League was Villareal (Spain), who finished in 6th position with 345,55 points. The complete ranking is in my blog, here.
@Nicola1975 Have you ever thought about comparing your rankings to the UEFA coefficients? I might spend time typing your coefficients into a spreadsheet and comparing them to the 2015-2016 UEFA Country Coefficients to see what countries did better in your formula what countries did worse. I would add up all the clubs in each country and divide by the number of clubs from that country just like UEFA does. Since UEFA and you use two different scales, I couldn't simply compare by points. I could take each country's coefficient from both methods and divide it by the average coefficient for the 54 countries to produce a positive number where 1 would be average.
Hi Evan, it would be great if you could do something like that. If it can help you, I've made a spreadsheet with all the scores in the last 5 years calculated with my formula: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MtYzUGNl0g_Atr-pfbkV_puxy_77pgVTmyNoCvRFMUM/edit?usp=sharing Let me know if you need some other infos. Thanks
I copied and pasted that into my own spreadsheet. For now I'm just going to compare your method to the UEFA coefficients for 2015-2016. I don't know if I will do it for five seasons.
For the 236 clubs in 2015-2016, I compared your value to their UEFA club coefficient. In the club coefficient, I only gave club credit for their own points. I did not give club credit for the 20 percent of their country's coefficient. The correlation between the two sets of numbers obviously should be strong and positive. The correlation was 0.9307.
I didn't expect the correlation to be so strong; I thought there was a positive one of course, but not so high. Thank you for the calculation.
After the 2016/2017 play-off round of the European Cups the best team is Gabala (Azerbaijan). They started from the first round in Europa League, eliminating Samtredia (Georgia), MTK Budapest (Hungary), Lille (France) and Maribor (Slovenia). The team's total score is 101,24. The second team is Austria Wien (Austria), with 96,64 points. The third team is IFK Göteborg (Sweden), with 96,24 points. The best club still in the Champions League is Copenhagen (Denmark), who is in the 4th position with a total score of 95,57. They started from the second round, eliminating Crusaders (North Ireland), Astra Giurgiu (Romania) and APOEL Nicosia (Cyprus). The worst team still in the competition is Young Boys (Switzerland), who won against Shakhtar Donetsk (Ukraine) in the third round of Champions League, but then lost to Borussia Mönchengladbach (Germany) with an aggregate score of 2-9. Now they are in the 216th position with 17,86 points, and will take part in the Europa League's Group Stage. The complete ranking is in my blog, here.