I think Belgium is A, not A+, because of ageing defenders, Lukaku not performing in the biggest matches, and there seems to be a lack of new talent. France and Portugal (also A+ for me) seem the most stable. Portugal will still do well without CR7 I reckon, with Bernardo Silva as the main star and new quality in Cancelo, Felix and Fernandes. I think you are rather optimistic about Italy and Netherlands. I would say they are B+ right now. Promising young players on both sides but unproven on the big stage. The future looks good but 2020 is too early, IMO. I feel the same about Germany. England is a dark horse for me. They have tremendous attacking power right now in Kane, Sancho, Sterling, Abraham, Vardy, Rashford. CB's and midfield don't look as convincing. I do think England will do well and might win euro 2020, if not another tournament in this decade. But they will lose against Portugal or a motivated France. I have absolutely no idea what to expect from Spain. Turkey may surprise.
I will adjust my list at the end of the year when the UEFA Nations League groups are finished. What I can already say is that I regret having put Italy that high as 3rd. That's not just because of the draw against Bosnia. I was too high on them. Portugal is absolutely making a case to be in their place with an "A" grade.
We can beat Portugal who are like us weak in defence. Also our midfield is pretty good with winks Henderson foden grealish maddison. Our rightbacks are the best in the world.
Portugal is weak defensively? That's completely wrong. That is one of their strengths. Portugal's weakness is finishing (long time issue).
I think now one year later it's time to come up with an update of the Power Rankings. We've seen another edition of the Nations League and the EURO playoffs take place. Therefore we've more games available in order to judge the current level of all teams qualified. This is my updated list: 1) France............................... A + 2) Portugal..............................A + 3) Belguim...............................A 4) Spain..................................A 5) Italy.....................................A 6) England..............................A 7) Netherlands.......................A - 8) Germany.............................B + 9) Croatia............................... B + 10) Switzerland...................... B + 11) Ukraine............................. B + 12) Denmark...........................B + 13) Sweden..............................B 14) Poland...............................B 15) Turkey................................B 16) Austria...............................B 17) Russia...............................B - 18) Czech Rephblic................ B - 19) Wales................................B - 20) Hungary............................B- 21) Finnland...........................C + 22) Scotland...........................C + 23) Slovakia............................C + 24) North Macedonia.............C Opinions ?
I base my rankings on results achieved in EURO qualfying and the two editions of the Nations League. Friendlies as such aren't taking into account due to several reasons. Hence Finnland who beat France in a friendly (for me the best team in the world right now) is still ranked relatively low with a grade of "C+". I made sure that I watched every team of that list at the very least two times over the last two years. Most teams I watched numerous times anyway. Last but not least I looked up the squads. To be clair I weighed more the performances and results. That's in the end what counts. I think at this point there are 7 teams who can realistically challenge for the title next year. All the ones that got at least an "A-". Dark horses (teams who could be a surprise semi-finalist) can be teams that are rated at least with a "B". They are likely to advance out of the group. The teams of "B-" can advance out of the group. Quarterfinals would be their cealing if everything goes well for them. The teams of "C+" are against it. It's unlikely they pass the group. It would already need something special for them to advance. Round of 16 would be their cealing. I placed North Macedonia in a category by themselves. I don't give them much of a chance. It would need them heroics to register a victory and progress from the group.
You misspelled Finland. You clearly did not look too closely at how the UEFA Nations League actually finished this season, because Turkey got relegated from League B to League C, finishing last in their group behind Hungary, Russia and Serbia, who are all ranked below Turkey in your ranking system. Turkey is C+ at best in my opinion, when you look at their latest results. which also include a loss and a draw against Iceland in the Euro-20 qualifiers, and Iceland is not even in your top 24. Turkey also finished last in their group in League B last season, losing both home and away to Russia, but were saved from relegation to League C back then by UEFA. In the 2018-19 Nations League Croatia, Germany, Poland and Iceland suffered relegation (in that order of accomplishment), but were "saved by the bell", with UEFA expanding League A, but looking at this season, Iceland finished as poorly as last time with 0 points at the bottom of their group, but in one of the tougher groups, where England only managed to finish 3rd behind Denmark and Belgium, but did much better in last seasons Nations League, not because they were better, but because they were in a stronger looking group this time around. So I still fail to see how you can rank Iceland below the likes of North Macedonia from League C or Slovakia (that got relegated from League B) considering the quality of opponents they have been facing. Which lead me to your ranking of Switzerland that, besides a loss and a draw to Denmark in their Euro-20 qualifying group, probably will suffer relegation from this years Nations League in the weakest looking group of them all, with a rather weak looking Germany that as written, also were far from impressive last season, only escaping relegation with the help from UEFA, and a Ukraine that managed promotion to the A league from one of the weaker looking groups last season and clearly did not impress this season. That Ukraine and Switzerland should be ranked above Denmark that, besides a win and a draw against Switzerland in the Euro-20 qualifiers, also finished ahead of an England side that has done better than Germany, both this and last season, seem highly strange to me. Wales is not B- but a solid B in my opinion. Their misfortune was that they have been drawn against Denmark and Croatia in the 2018-19 Nations League and Euro-20 qualifiers, while they won promotion to league A in this seasons Nations League.
Well, that would explain why Iceland is not ranked, but not the rest and especially not the ranking of Turkey in compare with teams like Wales and Russia.
Well indeed it was my intention to rank only the 24 teams that have qualified for EURO 2020. Had Iceland qualified I would have given them a "B-". Probably I would have placed them at 20th exactly where I placed Hungary or one two places higher at best. There also other sides such as Serbia or Norway that are in the same category for me (B-) but they failed to qualify.
Well, here is how the how the European teams will be seeded for the 2022 UEFA World Cup qualifying draw (in order of official ranking accomplishment, making Belgium the best of the best, while the Netherlands are just barely hanging on to pot 1 ) . Back in the 2018 WC qualifiers, Wales were among the top seeded in Pot 1 but have now dropped to Pot 2. Turkey is also hanging on to Pot 2, but with their results in the UEFA Nations League the past two seasons, now being relegated from League B to League C, they will most surely find themselves in Pot 3 in future qualifiers to come. : Pot 1: Belgium, France, England, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Croatia, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands. Pot 2: Switzerland, Wales, Poland, Sweden, Austria, Ukraine, Serbia, Turkey, Slovakia and Romania Pot 3: Russia, Hungary, Republic of Ireland, Czech Republic, Norway, Northern Ireland, Iceland, Scotland, Greece and Finland Pot 4: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovenia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania, Bulgaria, Israel, Belarus, Georgia and Luxembourg Pot 5: Armenia, Cyprus, Faroe Islands, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Lithuania, Latvia and Andorra Pot 6: Malta, Moldova, Liechtenstein, Gibraltar and San Marino
Regarding Turkey: It's true that Turkey finished last in both editions of the Nations League and they got eventually relegated to League C. But keep in mind that Turkey's group was very close. Had they defeated Hungary on the last matchday they would have been promoted to League A instead of getting relegated to League C. I know for a fact that Turkey didn't take the Nations League seriously. They used the Nations League fixtures to test as much players as possible. Their goal are EURO 2020 and the World Cup 2022. I looked up their starting eleven in all of their six Nations League encounters. They used a total of 28!!! different players for thoese matches. That's only for the starting eleven. You can imagine that it might have been around 35 players in total if you count substitutions. That's insane ! If you don't believe me look it up by yourself. So I couldn't take take the Nations League too much into account in their case. So it's the qualfying and the squad they possess that are my main factors in order to evaluate their level. In qualfying they were mostly very good. They took off 4 points of World Champion France. Yes, the first game was in summer 2019 after the regular season was finished. Therefore France's players mind were already on holidays. They underestimated them badly. The return fixture in Paris however was made a politically charged game mostly by French media. France was very motivated but they failed to beat Turkey. Turkey can be a very dangerous team. Don't fool yourself. Yes, they took only 1pt against Iceland. Turkey was bad in Iceland when they lost. I give you that. But in the return leg Turkey didn't need anything more than a draw which they got in the end given that they would play Andorra on the last Matchday and a win would qualify them there. Regarding their squad. They have a very strong centerback parship with Söyüncü from Leicester and Demiral from Juventus. Calhanoglu is part of Milan's resurgent team. Then you've got other guys such as Ünder, Tufan, Yazici and Yilmaz. It's a decent squad and a good unit. If you take all these into account I think placing Turkey 15th with a "B" grade is absolutely justified.
Not taking the Nations League seriously is a huge mistake, since the ranking for future Euro and WC tournament qualifiers highly depend on it. So Turkey will soon regret their relegation to League C, because it will make it more difficult for them to qualify in the future to come, and it's not like Turkey have managed to qualify for all that many Euro and WC tournaments in the past.
Regarding the ranking of Switzerland, Ukraine and Denmark It's right that Denmark took off 4 pts from Switzerland in EURO qualfying. I watched the fixture in Kopenhavn that Denmark won 1-0 against the Swiss. It was a lucky win for Denmark. Schmeichel was brilliant that day with several saves. Despite that loss it was Switzerland who went on to top the group because the Danes drew a rather poor Republic of Ireland twice (probably only a "C" side at the moment). And let's not forget that Denmark needed two last minute goals in Switzerland in order to avoid defeat when they drew them 3-3. Ukraine topped their qualfying group over Portugal (a side wich I ranked 2nd). That's very impressive. I know that they had a lot of luck in the games against Portugal but they took off 4pts from a formidable team. Let's give them still credit for that. In the current Nations League they managed to defeat also Spain at home. They had also a few strange results but this was mostly due to the reserve squad which they used due to COVID issues. Switzerland was in the semi-finals of the first edition of the Nations League thanks to their stunning 5-2 victory over Belguim. A side to which Denmark lost twice (0-2 and 2-4) in the current Nations League. Of course these three sides are all at the same level. There isn't much separating these sides. You can alternate the order in which you put them. But as a neutral it's Switzerland - Ukraine - Denmark for me.
In my opinion they did the right thing. Testing players at this level is important in order to give more players international exposure and in order to build a deep squad. Turkey's coach knew that they would be in pot 2 of the World Cup qualfying draw anyway. They had no chance to get in pot 1 and they were sitting rather comfortably in pot 2.
So you find it to be a weakness to win a game where you are not playing well and also be 3 goals behind but then securing a 3-3 result in the end, away from home ? ... fact... the reason why Denmark are among the top seeded in the WC qualifiers and Switzerland are not, is simply because Denmark have only lost to Belgium in their last 42 games in a row.
Regarding Wales I really don't think Wales should be a "B". Their squad as a whole is undoubtedly weaker as the sides that I gave a "B" (Sweden, Poland, Turkey and Austria). Besides that they achieved their results against teams that are in their level or lower than themselves. They didn't do too well against superior teams. Let's look at their results against teams of their level or superior to them. vs. Croatia (B+) they drew 1-1 at home and lost 2-1 away. vs. Hungary (B-) they won 2-0 at home and lost 1-0 away. vs. Denmark (B+) they lost 2-1 at home and lost 2-0 away. So they are tied on points with Hungary (B-), got one point from Croatia (B+) but they lost twice!!! to Denmark (B+). Had they got ar least a draw against Denmark at home we could have maybe made a case for them to get ranked 17th with a "B". But not with such results they actually delivered.
I made my Power Rankings discarding the FIFA World Rankings. These are my rankings. I know that Denmark is a very hard team to beat. I gave them what they deserve. An "B+". Whether you put them 12th or 10th is pretty much negligible. I decided to go with the former for aforementioned reasons.
Personally I do not go by the FIFA world rankings, but the Elo ratings that take the strength of the opponents more into account : https://www.eloratings.net/
I personally think that we'll have a team out of Pot 4 qualying this time. It was the case in 98,02 06 and 10. Especially given the fact that the two best Nations League group winners that don't finish in the top two of their World Cup qualfying group will get a playoff spot. These could be teams like Slovenia, Montenegro or maybe my country Albania. I give most teams of Pot 4 somewhat a chance to qualify even though they aren't favoured to do so. I would say up until Israel the teams have a shot at Qatar 2022. From Israel to Belarus there comes a huge drop off in quality. Belarus and all teams after them don't have a chance whatsoever. Coming from someone who has watched Belarus a few times. They are atrocious. Having Slovakia and Romania in Pot 2 is a bit strange. I see several teams of Pot 3 that are currently stronger than them. Almost all of the Pot 3 sides to be honest... Whoever of Pot 3 and Pot 4 gets to play them will like their chances to make it at least to the playoffs. Last but not least it will be interesting to see who out of Pot 1 will fail to qualify. Since 32 team World Cup in 1998 we had never all seeded teams qualfying. There are always some or at the very least one team of the top seeds that misses out on qualification. It won't be any different this time I guess.
My prefered group for my team Albania - Belguim - Romania - Northern Ireland - Albania - Kazakhstan 5-team group due to Belguim's presence in the Nations League Final Four Tournament. In such a group we could absolutelly fight for a playoff spot. Belguim is known as a team that cruises through qualfying with usually max points. Romania we beat them in EURO 2016. Northern Ireland is pretty much the same level as Romania. Both are average. Kazakhstan we played them in this year's Nations League. We won 3-1 at home and drew 0-0 away where we had several chances but we couldn't convert them.
Some teams like England and Belgium look unbeatable in qualifiers, but then are never quite able to live up to the expectations at the finals (and in the Nations League). Denmark never do more than is needed and required in qualifiers, but usually get the job done, and in this day and age, hardly ever lose a match, just as it was also the case at the WC-18 where they did not lose a game, but went out after AET and penalties against Croatia. But if you want a look into the future, then the UEFA U-21 Championship is a good measuring stick, because it's by far the most compatible tournament outside the Euro finals. If you look at the Denmark U-21, then they reflect how the Danish NT was great in the mid 80's and early 90's, but then had kind of a slip in quality before the Danish FA made a plan that include all the Danish youth NT's and league clubs, with the focus on developing young players able to play the exact same style of play as the NT. The Danish FA now also spend a huge pile of money on grading youth players and paying for special individual plans and training by top quality coaches for free, so clubs that are great at youth development no longer need to worry too much about the cost, when it comes to developing the best of the best. But Perhaps I should add, that at the U-21 Finals Denmark is not able to field the very best of the best, because the top 4-league clubs usually deny them the opportunity to participate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_European_Under-21_Championship#Participating_details