The draw for Euro 2016 qualifying is Sunday in Nice. Here are the pots - Ireland just about scraped into second seeding. Pot 1: Spain (holders), Germany, Netherlands, Italy, England, Portugal, Greece, Russia, Bosnia and Herzegovina Pot 2: Ukraine, Croatia, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland, Belgium, Czech Republic, Hungary, Republic of Ireland Pot 3: Serbia, Turkey, Slovenia, Israel, Norway, Slovakia, Romania, Austria, Poland Pot 4: Montenegro, Armenia, Scotland, Finland, Latvia, Wales, Bulgaria, Estonia, Belarus Pot 5: Iceland, Northern Ireland, Albania, Lithuania, Moldova, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Cyprus Pot 6: Luxembourg, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Faroe Islands, Malta, Andorra, San Marino, Gibraltar Teams to avoid: Spain, Germany, Holland in pot 1; I would prefer to avoid Serbia, Turkey, Romania, and Poland in pot 3; Scotland, Montenegro, and Bulgaria in pot 4, and Iceland and Northern Ireland from pot 5. A group of: Greece, Ireland, Israel, Latvia, Cyprus, and San Marino would be lovely! Spain, Ireland, Serbia, Bulgaria, Iceland, and Kazakhstan would be brutal.
Germany, Ireland, Poland, Scotland, Georgia, and Gibraltar. Tough! Germany should (again) stroll to qualification. I think 2nd/3rd will be between ourselves, Poland, and Scotland. The three sides are very close, and much will depend on who drops points to Georgia, and who can nick a point from the Germans.
I'm really looking forward to this group. As you say, the Germans will stroll it, Georgia won't come in the top 3 but will provide a serious banana skin and Gibraltar are unknown but really shouldn't pose too many problems. Leaving a straight three-way shoot out for the automatic and play-off spots. I think the three teams are relatively well matched which should make for some exciting games. We've both got new managers so will be expecting better than the last qualifiers. Scotland's recent problems has been awful results in games against teams we should be beating. Ireland's seems to be an inability to win against competitors in the group although you seem to be pretty efficient in picking up maximum points from the lesser sides.
We really should be 2nd in this group. FIFA Rankings Ireland: 67 Poland: 70 Scotland: 34 ELO Ratings Ireland: 36 Poland: 51 Scotland: 42 ESPN SPI Ireland: 40 Poland: 61 Scotland: 52 WTF is up with the FIFA ratings?? Anyway it's pretty clear that on paper we're the better side here. So I hope we put in the work and prove it.
I don't think that's clear at all. Ireland did nothing in the previous qualifying campaign and haven't actually beaten a good team in years.
Neither have Scotland or Poland....... Ireland played Poland twice in 2013. We drew them in Poznan and beat them 2-0 in Dublin. That's pretty clear IMO. But the bookies have Poland getting 2nd :http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/euro-2016-group-d/to-qualify Either way I think it will be very close. I just think we have the better team and should qualify.
Scotland beat Croatia home and away in the last qualifiers. Those were competitive games and Croatia still finished comfortably ahead of us. I don't think any of these three teams are good enough that they should be expecting to finish 2nd but clearly the teams are close enough that's it's a very realistic achievement for any of them.
Croatia are a good team, but they aren't in this group so that doesn't mean much. Poland are. I don't think anyone should necessarily be "expecting" 2nd, but I think if Ireland play to the best of their ability they should finish 2nd. Now obviously that is tough to do and much will be on the shoulders of Keane/O'Neill. And I 100% agree it is realistic that any of Ireland, Poland, or Scotland could finish 2nd.
I'm arguing that the logic of 'we beat Poland in a friendly so should finish above them in the group' is utterly awful. Even a cursory knowledge of football should tell you that. Scotland beat Croatia home and away yet finished below them. Wales beat Scotland home and away yet finished below them. And I don't think Ireland are "clearly" better than either Poland or Scotland on paper, whether that's looking through the squads or looking at previous results. Ireland have failed to defeat a serious qualifying group opponent for more than a decade.
That's not even close to what I said. But having experience against teams you're going to play in competition is always good. We've got plenty against Poland. Personal attack! Drink! Well I do, that's the beauty of Bigsoccer. We can disagree! This is almost as bad logic as the logic you made up then criticized above. Like you said, it doesn't matter if you beat a tough team (Croatia) if you're shit the rest of the time. We made it to playoffs in 2010, qualified in 2012, and had a very disappointing 2014 qualification. Which is why we have a new coaching staff. We didn't pat ourselves on the back over a couple victories like you seem to be doing. -------------------------------------- I don't know why you have your panties in a bunch. An Ireland fan thinking his team are better than Poland and Scotland? Shocking!!
And Poland have exactly the same amount of experience against Ireland. Except I'm not saying Ireland won't or shouldn't come 2nd because they continually fail to win games against decent teams, I'm making the point that a team who has a proven inability to win important games against the kind of teams who provide the main competition for qualifying spots don't really have a right to be as confident as you seem to be, based on just saying you're better than other teams. That's because Ireland haven't had any victories worth a pat on the back for in years. I just think you have hilariously green tinted specs on.
True, but our experiments in the games worked. Although the irish people have been a bit pessimistic over the past few years I'm choosing to look at this a bit more optimistim. I wouldn't call any of these statements over-confident: "we're the better side here. So I hope we put in the work and prove it." "I think if Ireland play to the best of their ability they should finish 2nd." AKA we may be the better side on paper, but we need to show it on the field (which we didn't do in 2014 qualifying) I'm sorry that I don't share the "we're shit and will come last but hopefully we'll beat someone good or England" attitude of the Tartan Army. In the last five years and three tournament qualification periods Ireland have achieved more than Poland and Scotland combined. (Which isn't saying much, but it's something).
Although I am quietly optimistic about our chances of finishing second, I'm not sure I would go so far as to call us, or any of these three sides, "favourites" for the second automatic qualification spot. In my opinion, they are so closely matched that 2nd, 3rd, and 4th will probably come down to one or two pieces of individual brilliance, individual errors, or (hopefully not) refereeing decisions. I'm particularly wary of Poland. They remind me a lot of Sweden, or perhaps even Austria, from the last campaign: a decent side, with two world-class players capable of unlocking any defence. We played quite well against them in the recent away friendly, but the competitive matches will be another beast altogether. Both matches v Scotland will be grinds, and I doubt there will be more than a goal in if after 90 (perhaps even 180) minutes. As I said above, so much will depend on getting 6 points from Georgia, and in those sort of matches we have excelled in recent campaigns. Our home form absolutely has to improve, but I think there's considerable optimism that under O'Neill and Keane it will. Might a more attacking outlook open us up in those crucial matches in Glasgow and in Poland? We shall to wait and see. I suspect we will travel to Poland on the final day needing result to progress. I believe we will qualify, but it will be a very close run thing, and O'Neill and Keane will have to get the players playing their best.
Yeah but those didn't come from the post I replied to. This is over confident... Aside from the fact that it's idiotic to think large groups of people share exactly the same viewpoint, that isn't remotely the kind of attitude I or any other Scottish fan I've seen on this board has had.
Strachan and O'Neill? About evenly matched. Squads? The same. Ireland's secret weapon? Roy Keane! Betcha even the Germans will be quaking.
The truth of this group is that it's a round robin between Ireland, Scotland and Poland for second place. Wins home and away are required and expected against Georgia and Gibraltar; any of the three failing that 6 point test will be automatically on the back foot. Equally any of the three taking a point (or three!) from Germany, home or away, pulls ahead. So what of the three sides? Scotland are a mercurial side since their last major qualification WC '98. They can pull off remarkable results - Croatia home and away - and then find themselves at the wrong end of ridiculous results - Wales home and away. Under Strachan they seem to have found their way a little and he does seem to have instilled belief, but the question remains about them - good for one or two games only or can they sustain an entire campaign? Old cup versus league question. But it's difficult to know whether they are more dangerous at home or on the road and which Scotland will come to the party. Poland have some talented players but their team seems to be just idling along. I've little doubt that they would not have qualified normally had they not been hosts in Euro 2012. At Wembley recently they showed little to suggest that they are anywhere ahead of Scotland or Ireland, rankings notwithstanding. They don't seem to travel well and while there's little can be gleaned from Ireland's recent 0-0 draw, it's fair to say a well organized side will give them problems. Ireland will be a very interesting team to watch for fans because of the new regime. I'm not the biggest O'Neill fan, but I think he might be suited to international football. His sides are usually well prepared and there's a palpable sense of freedom and fresh air after the claustrophobic Trappatoni era. There are enough players from the Euro '12 qualifying campaign to form a backbone of knowing what it is to be in a horse race; institutional memory if you wish. Furthermore there are also enough players in the Premier League, albeit for the Stokes and Norwichs rather than the Liverpools or Citys, to allow for a certain belief. In truth, there's little between the three. Any one of them could finish second or fourth. In my book, Ireland are just about marginal favorites. Just about. But I'm not going to be surprised, if they lose or draw at home to Scotland or Poland. No more so than I'd be surprised if they won or drew away in Glasgow or Warsaw.