Euro 2012 Group C: News & Analysis

mfw13 · Dec 2, 2011

Well, now that the draw has been made, time to start analyzing the groups.

In each team's analysis I will note results in OFFICIAL matches (i.e. qualifiers and WC 2010) since Euro 2008 but not give any weight to results in friendlies.

Group C: Spain, Italy, Croatia, Ireland

SPAIN: Current World Cup and European champions, so almost certain to advance, but one suspects they can be beaten. Switerland pulled it off at WC 2010, the USA at the 2009 Confederations Cup, and Italy held them to a draw in the Euro 2008 quarterfinals before losing on PK's. Also note that despite all their beautiful passing, they seem to have trouble actually getting the ball in the net, having scored only seven goals in seven matches at WC 2010, with all six of their victories being by excatly one goal. Qualified quite comfortably from a weak group for Euro 2012, but the fact that they managed to concede two goals to Lithuania and three to Scotland suggest that age may be finally starting to eat away at their central defense, where Carlos Puyol certainly isn't getting any younger.
Should make it out of the group without too much difficulty, but I'd be suprised if they won the whole tournament again.

ITALY: A mystery wrapped inside a riddle, wrapped inside an enigma. Suprisingly crashed out of an easy WC 2010 group without a win, but then cruised through Euro 2012 qualifying. However, injuries to Cassano and Rossi will almost certainly keep them out of Euro 2012 and rob the Italians of some of their firepower, and it won't help that for the first time in several generations the team lacks a true world-class player. Also note that while they qualified quite comfortably, their goal difference in away matches (+3), was greatly inferior that of their home matches (+15), suggesting that much like at WC 2010, they will have difficulty winning on foreign soil.

CROATIA: Finished 2nd in their qualifying group behind Greece, before suprisingly demolishing Turkey 3-0 in the playoffs by virtue of a 3-0 first leg win in Istanbul. Failed to qualify for WC 2010 from a tough qualifying group featuring England (1-4, 1-5) and Ukraine (2-2, 0-0), suggesting that they are a level below the top teams right now. Certainly capable of getting a result against either Italy or Ireland, but unlikely to challenge Spain for top spot in the group.

IRELAND: Certain to be a favorite of neutrals, the Irish have as good a shot as any at finishing second in the group. Qualified 2nd in therir group behind Russia, before easing past Estonia 5-1 in the playoffs. Form tends to be inconsistent, with qualifying featuring a home loss to Russia and a home draw to Slovakia as well as away draws with the same two countries, which suggest that they will be tough to beat. However, it also has to be worrisome that they were likewise unable to record a single victory against the other two decent sides in their qualifying group (Russia and Slovakia), with all their wins coming against their group's minnows.

CONCLUSION: Spain to win the group, with a wide-open race among three flawed teams for the second spot.

Smoga · Dec 2, 2011

Both Spain and Italy are notorious slow starters at big tournaments, so that first marquee match between them on June 10 in Gdansk is going to be a toss up, with Italy emerging a possible winner. If that happens any other slip by Spain (a tie vs. Croatia, a team of excelent players but underachieving for their NT),could cost them a trip to the quarterfinals. I think Spain not making it to the QF is a distinct upset possibility. However, if they do make it out of that group there is not stopping them until the finals against Germany.

Cody667 · Dec 2, 2011

Italy's last 5 results vs Ireland: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses. Italy's last 5 results vs Croatia: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses.

Spain should advance, I can see any of the other 3 coming second.

cromagnum · Dec 3, 2011

Cody667 said: ↑

Italy's last 5 results vs Ireland: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses. Italy's last 5 results vs Croatia: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses.

Spain should advance, I can see any of the other 3 coming second.
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Italy has never beaten Croatia since Croatia declared independence from Yugoslavia in 1990..Croatia has 3 wins and 2 draws since then..The only time Croatia lost to Italy was 1942 when Croatia was a independent nation from 1941 to 1945..The fact that Croatia has never lost to the Italians since gaining independence im sure will give them confidence they can beat them again..

indiansoccerfan · Dec 3, 2011

Spain just ooze class. They are a class apart from the rest of the teams and should make it through easily.

Sadly, I feel this is the end of the road for the Irish. They have a lot of commitment, passion, and good work ethics, what they lack is a bit of quality and pace especially at the back.

But the 2nd spot race is going to be fantastic & I'm looking forward to it. Italy rode through the qualifiers largely thanks to Cassano and if he doesn't play, they don't have a half-decent striker to replace him. Croatia on the other hand have a lot of quality players but are prone to erratic results-- beating Germany in Euro 2008 and then failing to even qualify for the play-offs of WC 2010. They too suffer from the lack of a quality striker as well as a slow and not-so-good defence. I feel it's going to be an amazing battle between these two for 2nd spot.

TrueCrew · Dec 3, 2011

I tap Spain to win the group. I think they have trouble scoring because everyone is so terrified to actually try to play against them. Germans. Dutch. English. Everyone.

Should be fun among the other 3 for 2nd. Italy are probably robbed of their two best creators/scorers. If Rossi or Cassano can play, I like Italy. If not, it's a tossup.

Rooting for the Irish. Too bad there was no way they couldn't be drawn into a group with France.

Fabio Grosso 2006 · Dec 3, 2011

mfw13 said: ↑

Well, now that the draw has been made, time to start analyzing the groups.

In each team's analysis I will note results in OFFICIAL matches (i.e. qualifiers and WC 2010) since Euro 2008 but not give any weight to results in friendlies.

Group C: Spain, Italy, Croatia, Ireland

SPAIN: Current World Cup and European champions, so almost certain to advance, but one suspects they can be beaten. Switerland pulled it off at WC 2010, the USA at the 2009 Confederations Cup, and Italy held them to a draw in the Euro 2008 quarterfinals before losing on PK's. Also note that despite all their beautiful passing, they seem to have trouble actually getting the ball in the net, having scored only seven goals in seven matches at WC 2010, with all six of their victories being by excatly one goal. Qualified quite comfortably from a weak group for Euro 2012, but the fact that they managed to concede two goals to Lithuania and three to Scotland suggest that age may be finally starting to eat away at their central defense, where Carlos Puyol certainly isn't getting any younger.
Should make it out of the group without too much difficulty, but I'd be suprised if they won the whole tournament again.

ITALY: A mystery wrapped inside a riddle, wrapped inside an enigma. Suprisingly crashed out of an easy WC 2010 group without a win, but then cruised through Euro 2012 qualifying. However, injuries to Cassano and Rossi will almost certainly keep them out of Euro 2012 and rob the Italians of some of their firepower, and it won't help that for the first time in several generations the team lacks a true world-class player. Also note that while they qualified quite comfortably, their goal difference in away matches (+3), was greatly inferior that of their home matches (+15), suggesting that much like at WC 2010, they will have difficulty winning on foreign soil.

CROATIA: Finished 2nd in their qualifying group behind Greece, before suprisingly demolishing Turkey 3-0 in the playoffs by virtue of a 3-0 first leg win in Istanbul. Failed to qualify for WC 2010 from a tough qualifying group featuring England (1-4, 1-5) and Ukraine (2-2, 0-0), suggesting that they are a level below the top teams right now. Certainly capable of getting a result against either Italy or Ireland, but unlikely to challenge Spain for top spot in the group.

IRELAND: Certain to be a favorite of neutrals, the Irish have as good a shot as any at finishing second in the group. Qualified 2nd in therir group behind Russia, before easing past Estonia 5-1 in the playoffs. Form tends to be inconsistent, with qualifying featuring a home loss to Russia and a home draw to Slovakia as well as away draws with the same two countries, which suggest that they will be tough to beat. However, it also has to be worrisome that they were likewise unable to record a single victory against the other two decent sides in their qualifying group (Russia and Slovakia), with all their wins coming against their group's minnows.

CONCLUSION: Spain to win the group, with a wide-open race among three flawed teams for the second spot.
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spain scored 8 goals in 7 games and beat honduras 2-0. If youre going to write things up at least have the correct information.

Fabio Grosso 2006 · Dec 3, 2011

whats all this nonsence spain have trouble scoring goals? what a load of crap. What one torunament means they have trouble scoring goals? look how many they banged in qualifying and qualifiers for world cup 2010. in euro 2008 they top scored with 12 goals. Some people havnt got a clue.

Ellada-Polonia · Dec 3, 2011

Croatia won't get anywhere, we (greece) finished above them are we're apparently the worst team at the tournament.

cromagnum · Dec 3, 2011

Ellada-Polonia said: ↑

Croatia won't get anywhere, we (greece) finished above them are we're apparently the worst team at the tournament.
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Croatia played really bad in Greece but to be honest greece doesnt have the quality players Croatia has..Greece won 2-0 but played bunker and scored 2 goals on corner kicks..Croatia went into Istanbul and dominated a pretty good Turkey team..Not many countries can go to Istanbul and win 3-0..Problem with Greece is they dont have one top class player while Croatia has Modric who has dominated countries like England and Germany in the past..

Cody667 · Dec 3, 2011

Ellada-Polonia said: ↑

Croatia won't get anywhere, we (greece) finished above them are we're apparently the worst team at the tournament.
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No, and anyone who says that Greece is the worst team is an idiot. This tournament has 14 quality teams + the Czech Republic and Poland. Funny, both are in the same group.

cromagnum · Dec 3, 2011

Cody667 said: ↑

No, and anyone who says that Greece is the worst team is an idiot. This tournament has 14 quality teams + the Czech Republic and Poland. Funny, both are in the same group.
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Greece can win there group..They are always difficult to break down and have some very good young defenders..They play very boring football is why nobody rates them..

mfw13 · Dec 3, 2011

Fabio Grosso 2006 said: ↑

whats all this nonsence spain have trouble scoring goals? what a load of crap. What one torunament means they have trouble scoring goals? look how many they banged in qualifying and qualifiers for world cup 2010. in euro 2008 they top scored with 12 goals.
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My point was that for a team the passes the ball so well and keeps so much possession, they don't score as many goals as you would expect. Most teams that dominate possession as much as the Spanish do generally score 2-3-4 goals per game, and while they've been able to do that without much difficulty in the qualifiers, their scoring rate has been much lower in the tournament finals themselves.

Euro 2008 - 12 goals in six matches, but only 4 goals in three matches in the knockout stages.

2009 Confederations Cup - 8 goals in four matches (am not including the meaningless 3rd place match), but five of those were in one game against New Zealand. Only 3 goals in three matches against Iraq, South Africa, and the USA.

World Cup 2010 - 8 goals in seven matches

OVERALL TOTAL: 28 goals in 17 matches, and only three matches where they scored more than two goals (Euro 2008 groups stage vs. Russia, Euro 2008 Semifinal against Russia, 2009 Confed Cup group stage vs. New Zealand), and which avergages out to about 1.6 goals per match.

KNOCKOUT STAGES TOTAL: 8 goals in 8 matches

As pretty as all their midfield passing is, they don't seem to create a whole lot of good scoring chances from it, and with Torres struggling mightily and David Villa not playing his best right now, it's a reasonable question to ask whether or not Spain is going to be able to score enough goals.

minuscapita · Dec 3, 2011

Spain vs italy will be a bore 0-0
Spain vs Croatia (anything is possible) but I see spain winning.
Spain vs ireland (possible tie) but I see spain winning.
Italy vs Croatia I (for some reason) see Croatia winning.
ireland vs Croatia a tie.

This will be the most boring group of the tournament. Everyone will bunker against us (spain) and will be blamed for not scoring a ton of goals.

Fabio Grosso 2006 · Dec 4, 2011

mfw13 said: ↑

My point was that for a team the passes the ball so well and keeps so much possession, they don't score as many goals as you would expect. Most teams that dominate possession as much as the Spanish do generally score 2-3-4 goals per game, and while they've been able to do that without much difficulty in the qualifiers, their scoring rate has been much lower in the tournament finals themselves.

Euro 2008 - 12 goals in six matches, but only 4 goals in three matches in the knockout stages.

2009 Confederations Cup - 8 goals in four matches (am not including the meaningless 3rd place match), but five of those were in one game against New Zealand. Only 3 goals in three matches against Iraq, South Africa, and the USA.

World Cup 2010 - 8 goals in seven matches

OVERALL TOTAL: 28 goals in 17 matches, and only three matches where they scored more than two goals (Euro 2008 groups stage vs. Russia, Euro 2008 Semifinal against Russia, 2009 Confed Cup group stage vs. New Zealand), and which avergages out to about 1.6 goals per match.

KNOCKOUT STAGES TOTAL: 8 goals in 8 matches

As pretty as all their midfield passing is, they don't seem to create a whole lot of good scoring chances from it, and with Torres struggling mightily and David Villa not playing his best right now, it's a reasonable question to ask whether or not Spain is going to be able to score enough goals.
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well said and a very good argument but you could do that with many teams. Brazil in world cup 1994 scored 11 goals and in 3 of their 4 knockout matches yielded only 2 goals, so what? In the knockout stages of France 1998 in their first 3 games France netted only 3 goals and 2 of those went to extra time. You cant pick and choose when it suits you because you could do that with many teams.

You make a fair point Ill give you that, terrific analysis but I disagree. 2010 no question they hardly scored, but they looked very dangerous and grafted enough opportunities.

Fabio Grosso 2006 · Dec 4, 2011

sorry I re-read what you wrote and you are correct with what you said. Calejon and Llorente tho are very dangerous. Villa is a machine he's not struggling at all.

Ellada-Polonia · Dec 4, 2011

cromagnum said: ↑

Greece can win there group..They are always difficult to break down and have some very good young defenders..They play very boring football is why nobody rates them..
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We have some very good attacking youngsters as well like Ninis, Fetfatzidis and Vellios who will hopefully surprise the rest of europe who's never heard of them. Also under our new manager we play much better football. We did rely on set pieces for the croatia game but we had half our team missing.

mfw13 · Dec 4, 2011

Ellada-Polonia,

Please post in the correct thread. Greece is not in Group C.

Sian · Dec 4, 2011

IMO its hard to see what could challenge Spain, except problems scoring the needed goals, so they're fairly solid in first in my book

second place, given that i don't see Italy as a scarily strong team currently, and Ireland in my opin is to inconsisent, i'm saying Croatia

Ellada-Polonia · Dec 4, 2011

mfw13 said: ↑

Ellada-Polonia,

Please post in the correct thread. Greece is not in Group C.
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Umm, how am I meant to reply to their replies of my original post on Croatia in a different thread?.

cromagnum · Dec 4, 2011

minuscapita said: ↑

Spain vs italy will be a bore 0-0
Spain vs Croatia (anything is possible) but I see spain winning.
Spain vs ireland (possible tie) but I see spain winning.
Italy vs Croatia I (for some reason) see Croatia winning.
ireland vs Croatia a tie.

This will be the most boring group of the tournament. Everyone will bunker against us (spain) and will be blamed for not scoring a ton of goals.
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Croatia won't play bunker against Spain..That is not there style..They will sit back and wait for the counter..You have to play defensive and have discipline against Spain as nobody can match there technique..

canzano55 · Dec 5, 2011

Italy has at least one world class player in Daniel De Rossi (tell me a club football manager in the world who wouldn't want him) and possibly Buffon (if he's in form).

Despite the absence of Cassano and Rossi who are arguably two huge offensive pieces, Italy still has Balotelli. Say what you want about how screwed up he is etc. but he's had some great games for Italy and he seems to be turning into a top premier striker in the EPL. If there is one true ace of a striker that exists outside of Rooney and possibly Villa that can turn a game around, its Mario Balotelli.

With that said I think most of us can agree that Germany is a lock for the Cup.

Hulk_Hogan_Italia · Dec 6, 2011

I would say that Pirlo is world class

TFC17 · Dec 6, 2011

Yeah, Italy is getting slept on, mostly by people who haven't watched them since the WC2010 disaster (Which was more Lippi then anything)

They are the 4th best team in this tournament, only behind Spain, Germany and the Netherlands.

Nedved11 · Dec 6, 2011

Spain to win the group but expect every team to put 10 or 11 men behind the ball against them

Being an Irish fan I really hope we come 2nd but I think Croatia are the likely team to fill that spot. We will be lucky to get a point from the group IMO!

Spain-Italy : Spain win
Ireland-Croatia: Croatia win
Spain-Ireland: Spain win
Croatia-Italy Croatia
Spain-Croatia: Spain
Italy-Ireland Italy

Germany to win it overall