Euro 2012 Group B: News & Analysis

Mhhh Germany vs. Netherlands could be interesting now. Holland had almost unlimited chances against Denmark but didn't score shit. Germany didn't have that many chances everything was too slow.
Now because of that I guess Netherlands will do it!

 

Congratulations to Denmark & Germany
Denmark, Germany, Portugal did a great job on the defense
Thats why Germany has been surprising slow on attack, Denmark played not anything as "schoon" like Netherlands but they all knew what to do and they won while Portugal played actually good too but couldnt score because of the "Mauer" from Germany. "Oranje" was just unlucky too, so - All-or-none against the Germans + Portugal has an outstanding score with the danes
Cant wait for next games

 

Interesting statistics, possession and attempts :
Germany 56% v Portugal 44%
Attempts off target : 8 v 4
Attempts on target : 4 v 7

Holland 53% v Denmark 47%
Attempts off target : 20 v 0 (soccernet : 23 v 4)
Attempts on target : 8 v 8 (soccernet : 5 v 4)

http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/season=2012/statistics/round=15172/teams/type=possessionperc/index.html
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/match?id=334183&ref=espnfc&cc=5739
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/match?id=334182&ref=espnfc&cc=5739

The interesting part here is, that Denmark actually had more possession against the Dutch than Portugal against Germany, despite Denmark obviously were trying to defend a result most of the match, unlike Portugal.... So Denmark were obviously not as poor on the ball as ppl may think they remember, but unlike the Dutch, they did not finish most of their "attacks", but were just trying to keep the ball in their own ranks as much as possible, to prevent the Dutch from looking all too dangerous.

The Dutch however, having excellent attacking players, were able to apply much pressure on Denmark the first 20 minutes or so in the first half, before Denmark took the lead, but after that, the Danes looked more cool minded and confident in defense and midfield ... The same pretty much happened in the second half.

As for the actual defending, opportunities created and efficiency, there seem to be a disagreement on how many of the attempts were actually on target in the match between Holland and Denmark.... UEFA says 8 to Holland and 8 to Denmark, while as you can see above, soccernet is saying only 5 to Holland and only 4 to Denmark.
http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/season=2012/statistics/round=15172/teams/type=shotsontarget/index.html
In any case, the numbers reveal that most of the 28 Dutch attempts were fairly long range and off target, which I think also had something to do with how the Danish team were defending (and two well playing Danish centre backs, Agger and Kjaer).... in any case, UEFA also reveal who so far have been the most efficient attacking players and who has been the most wasteful :

Attempts on target (players) :
http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/season...d=15172/players/type=shotsontarget/index.html
Attempts off target (players) :
http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/season=2012/statistics/round=15172/players/type=shotswide/index.html
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I realllyy want to argue my opinion but i am afraid of jinxing our chances lol

 

9 points could be a possibility...the Dutch are a great squad but have trouble finishing, the Danes might not get that many chances but seem to make them count, and Portugal is Portugal. I don't see any reason why Germany should lose a match in this stage at least.

 

If Germany wins against Portugal, i could certainly see them only getting out with a draw in the last match against Denmark due to them resting players since they're allready advanced by that point

 

Germany might not be qualified by the 3rd game even if they win.

If Portugal beat Denmark and Germany beat NL, the table will look like this
Ger - 6
Por - 3
Den - 3
NL - 0
meaning that if Germany lose the last game and Portugal wins the table would be
Ger - 6
Por - 6
Den - 6
NL - 0
and then it would go down to GD

All that to say that while a draw would be enough in the last game, I doubt they'll gamble by resting too many players.

That leaves things open for an interesting scenario because if Ger beat Den in the last game and NL beat Por then the table would be
Ger - 9
Por - 3
Den - 3
NL - 3
And then it would go down to GD again.

 

H2H won't matter in both of those scenarios, so it'll go straight to GD

 

I see your point. Doesn't change a whole lot from my initial post though since my point was that Germany might not want to sit back in the last game because they could still go out if Portugal beat Denmark and they beat NL.

Also, as a Portuguese fan, we want Germany to beat NL since it would give us a good chance to progress if we can manage to put a few past Denmark (it will be tough).

If Portugal beats Denmark with a score of 3-0 or 4-0 and NL lose to Ger, then as long as Den lose to Ger in the last game, we could afford to lose 2 or 3-0 to NL and still go through. I find it interesting that any of the teams could potentially lose 2 of their 3 games (not unlikely in this group), and still go through.

I would still want to hammer the Netherlands though

 

I hate bringing out the calculator all the time. We have to do it in qualifying and the tournament.

 

I wonder if that extreme, if not somewhat forced, optimism the Portugese fans show, is healthy

Judging from Netherlands-Denmark and Germany-Portugal, theres nothing suggesting that Portugal should be able to get away with a several goal win.

Specially not when looking at recent history (where teams have roughly the same members as now) where Portugal have had a hard time winning against Denmark

 

A hypothetical scenario brought up by 1 portuguese isn't optimism. Nor 1 equals 10 millions.

 

The portuguese matchday thread supports his observation. The consenus there is: Portugal were cheated out of a victory by corrupt refs, vicious german tackles and dangerous paper balls. Otherwise they would have won or at least got a draw.

 

Oh, so instead of 1, you get around 10. Yes, that makes more sense now.

I think I'm understanding what this is all about now.

thebaptist came up with this hypothetical scenario - like many others - regarding GD and Sian rightfully claimed that it's highly unlikely that Portugal will score that many and that we are overly optimist. I replied to Sian telling him that he's generalizing to divert his attention, again, to what happened in Qlying's. And here you are, quoting me that his observations were about a thread where a dozen portuguese diss the german players, their fans and even the referee and that somewhat that is related to optimism.

Thanks! If it wasn't for you I would make a fool out of myself!

 

... Yeah ...

you know, every time i see you posting, you're more defensive than the Danish team was looking in parts of DK-NL ...

that said, when portugese fans on these boards seems over optimistic, i claim right to point it out no matter how much you say that its only a small ammount of fans, hence not a viable ammount to make a board comment on. And noone else of the, i don't remember how many, million Portugese citizens, have those opinions i comment on ...

Geeze

 

You've been pestering our forum for a long, long time trying to shove your analysis of Denmark down our throats. It first started like many other fans of weaker teams. They start to come up with deep analysis of their team, only to end up bitching about how strong they are and that we shouldn't underrate them. They shout constantly about the same thing over and over to the point that people recognize inferiority complex when they see it.

Denmark is a good team that can beat Portugal, everybody knows that. People also know that qualifyings are qualifyings and friendlies are friendlies. People will also never put Denmark above Portugal or Netherlands regardless of what they do in this tournament.

Focus your witch hunt (as supported in bolded) to something more productive. Portuguese are hopeful about a good result against Denmark and Holland because Portugal played way more solid than expected. It doesn't mean we take this as granted. People are still largely skeptic. And it's not the hot headed comments in a match thread against a team that it's not even yours, that proves anything of what you're saying. Much less a hypothetical scenario dicussed by many others, the only difference the one you quoted being portuguese.

Be happy that Denmark is in a good position to go through. I know I would instead of seeking any excuse to diss the other team.

 

If Portugal underestimate Denmark as they usually do and as the Dutch also did, they are going to suffer....

We can all agree that Denmark do not have all the World class players as the other teams in this group, but Denmark are clearly better as team, which they have proven again and again against Portugal and now also against the Dutch.... the funny fact here is, that ppl still seem to believe that Denmark were outclassed and lucky against Holland, though Denmark actually had more possession against the Dutch than Portugal had against Germany... In other words you are just fooled by the fact that Denmark tactically were defending a 1-0 result most of the game, while Portugal were in need of scoring goals to get a result.

When Portugal are crying about injuries in defense in their last loss against Denmark, they seem to forget that the Denmark captain Agger was also injured and out in that match, just as one of the regular full backs.... This time around Denmark is at full strenght , unlike at the WC-10 when we were terribly struck by injuries and also were fielding several over the hill players.
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Thank you for underlining your inferiority complex by stating a contradiction.

I have yet to understand what you're all worked up about. For me you're in an advantage because we need to win and you have a solid defense. The fact that we struggle to score, as shown against Germany in the final minutes, is a clear sign of how hard this is going to be for the portuguese.

Personally, I won't think less of whoever gets behind (you seem to want to though and that kind of itches me). Hope we'll watch a good game.

 

1. I'm Portuguese; my analysis will always be with a thought on how it could benefit Portugal, and I don't judge you for being Danish, Dutch, or German.

2. I posted a best case scenario for the second round of games; and while recent results haven't gone our way, us Portuguese know our team and we know that when goals start to flow, THEY FLOW. It'll be tough against Denmark, but just like we might lose, we might also win. Try and think about what might happen if Portugal scores a couple of early goals; maybe a lucky deflection and a penalty. Anything is possible.

3. I posted a reply to your possession argument in another thread but I'll say it again. Your argument is extremely vague and weighted. According to you Denmark were defending a lead and Portugal was chasing a game and somehow that means that Denmark put in a better performance. Denmark scored sometime in the FIRST HALF and this caused 2 things to happen. Denmark could be happy to play 'safe' possession while NL grew more and more frustrated, thus making more mistakes. Portugal employed a tactic which they usually do against the tough teams which is to play on the counter (think Por 4-0 Spain), this means that we're generally happy to give the other team possession. This worked fine till the 75th minute when Germany scored. For the LAST FIFTEEN MINUTES Portugal chased the game and the possession changed dramatically from 70/30ish to something closer to 50/50. This shows that Portugal were not only good defensively, but also pretty good in possession from an ATTACKING point of view.

4. I remember 1 game where Portugal underestimated Denmark and that was the game where we were winning 1-0 till the 85th minute and somehow you guys managed to win 3-2 after providing 0 threat the whole game. There was only one game where you guys might have a marginal case for playing better than us (I'm not counting the friendly) and that was the 2-1 result in Denmark recently. And however badly you think we played in that game, don't forget when we hammered you in Portugal and you were lucky to get away with 3-1 scoreline. So while we don't underestimate you, you'd also do well not to underestimate us, especially since you really have no case for it.

All that to say, good luck for the game. I won't care too much if we lose since, honestly, I'm past that point in my life where football is everything; I do get into it though . You guys have a good team and if we do go out, I won't begrudge you a good run in the tournament. But while we're still in it, I'm Portuguese, and as such, I support the best team in the world.. BY FAR

 

I didn't know you were the optimism police here.

Let me ask you something.. Do you think Denmark will progress to the next round?

yes or no

 

slightly doubtful, but match 1 have turned out the best way possible so now i actually believe that the chances are there.

and if you try to read my post on DK-NL from pregame i'd said that i would be happy with a draw so i can't be called overly optimistic, no matter how much you want to use me as a strawman

 

I'm not trying to call you anything.. I'm trying to find out if you actually have an opinion.

It's easy for me to be 'hopeful'. Even Luxemburg can hope that they'll qualify for something. But if the players have to be 100% sure of a good result in order for them to achieve one, then I expect nothing less from myself as a fan. I'm 100% sure that we'll progress, and that won't change until we're knocked out.

If my opinion bothers you.. that's your problem.