Eskandarian

Discussion in 'D.C. United' started by MarioKempes, Nov 5, 2003.

  1. beineke

    beineke New Member

    Sep 13, 2000
    You also claimed that you weren't cherry-picking players whose numbers were skewed by injury.

    I think their career numbers indicate otherwise.
     
  2. Liverpool_SC

    Liverpool_SC Member

    Jun 28, 2002
    Upstate, SC
    Okay - you like to disqualify all of the examples I cite and then you mention Ray's playing of a goalkeeper as evidence he is not unreasonably hard on giving young players playing time. Why is it that you only look for apples and oranges in other posts? What is your point Beineke? Do you really think that Esky is a poor player or are you just a curmudgeon.

    Throughout this entire thread, there have been tons of anecdotal comments by people that state: "Esky stinks . . . I don't know really why I think that, but he stinks." Or "I don't think he is so bad." And I make an effort to at least demonstrate something empirically - without making grandiose claims mind you - simply showing that Eskandarian has actually scored goals at a fairly reasonable rate. I specifically stated that I was not trying to justify that he was better than Wolff or had more potential than Jaqua. ONLY THAT HE WAS WORTH GIVING MORE OF A CHANCE.

    Yet all you want to do is shoot it down. None of the counterexamples that you have cited (comparing him to competely dissimilar first picks, bringing up Rimando, simply dismissing out of hand other forwards (who I explicitly mention have various levels of talent but) who have gone on to have a modicum of success blah blah blah - at least they play the same stinking position) are even remotely as applicable as mine.

    You still have not stated why Esky didn't justify more playing time when his scoring rates were better than any other forward (any other player for that matter) on DC's team apart from Stoichkov. And if you take out PKs that Stoichkov took after fooling the ref with a dive - he probably wouldn't have scored anymore than Eskandarian. Eskandarian who scored at the same clip as Mike Magee and Nate Jaqua and other more heralded rookies. So why exactly did Eskandarian not justify getting played more than Hudson played him? Can you think of any reason? Do you have anything to add to the debate or are you just being a contrarian (a role that you seem to relish)?

    I would think that any manager worth his salt would be happy to play guys who are productive - especially at the forward position. But for whatever reason, Hudson did not play Eskandarian. Therefore I think it is pretty harsh for DC fans to be particularly critical of Eskandarian. There are other guys on the team who are more deserving of the criticism in terms of production.
     
  3. Liverpool_SC

    Liverpool_SC Member

    Jun 28, 2002
    Upstate, SC
    I simply put together a list of similar players who had lesser or equal production. Some of them were injured during the season (Wolff). Some of them were not injured during the season. Some of them had season-ending injuries that didn't affect their quality of play prior to the injury.

    +Chris Carrieri - not significantly injured during the season
    +DeMarcus Beasley - not significantly injured during the season
    +Brian Mullen - some injuries
    +John Wolyniac - no major injuries
    +Joe-Max Moore - injured on and off. Still doesn't really excuse his production. Plenty of solid playing time.
    +Eddie Johnson - no major injuries
    +Igor Simutenkov - some injuries. Still doesn't really excuse his production. Plenty of solid playing time.
    +Josh Wolff - injured chronically. Still gets paid big bucks. Bad value compared to Esky. And he has bad rate stats (over the past two years).
    +Jeff Cunningham - some injuries. Plenty of solid playing time.
    +Clint Mathis - some injuries. Still doesn't really excuse his production. Plenty of solid playing time.
    +Mike Magee - no major injuries
    +Jason Kreis - season-ending injury. Rate stats would not have been affected, as he was generally healthy prior to major injury.
    +Brian Ching - season-ending injury. Rate stats would not have been affected, as he was generally healthy prior to major injury.
    +Alecko Eskandarian - some injuries (Cracked heads and got a pretty bad concussion. Also some arm/hand/wrist injury)

    You can throw out Mullen and Beasley if you like. I have given a bunch of other players with equivalent/inferior rate stats. I could have made the list a lot longer (if I included people like Dino Fabbro, Quaranta, Juskowiak, et al). I mainly picked players that people generally regard as decent players at the MLS level.

    These players are also fairly representative of the wear and tear that goes on in the league during the course of a season. But alas, I didn't do a "statistical test of cherry-picking" when I picked them. You will also note that many of the players I identified as outright superior to Esky (in terms of their rate stats) had significant injuries too (Zizi Roberts, Dewayne DeRosario, Edsen Buddle and Taylor Twellman).

    Injuries do not necessarily penalize players when the comparison is done based on rate stats! Their missed playing time and lower "counting stats" (i.e. total goals scored) are not held against them.
     
  4. beineke

    beineke New Member

    Sep 13, 2000
    I entered the discussion by providing a set of facts that show that Eskandarian played dramatically less than other #1 picks. It's a fact; other top picks got playing time quickly. Eskandarian didn't. Now maybe that's all Hudsons' fault; I didn't editorialize about that. But if you really want objective discussion, it's not clear why you jumped all over my post. It's also unclear why you think Rimando is somehow irrelevant to the question of whether Hudson is willing to give young players a chance.

    Back to the question of a player's strike rate ... scoring a goal every 243 minutes is not good productivity for a striker. It is very misleading to suggest that he has a better strike rate than Cunningham, Moore, etc.
     
  5. Liverpool_SC

    Liverpool_SC Member

    Jun 28, 2002
    Upstate, SC
    Announcement

    I am forthwith going to refer to Beineke as Meineke for the rest of this thread, as he tends to muffle intellectually honest discussion with poor counterexamples and general curmudgeonly behavior.
     
  6. beineke

    beineke New Member

    Sep 13, 2000
    Sorry, Liverpool. I'm not going to play your game any more.

    I'm sick of your fudging with "equivalent" stats and comparisons between forwards and midfielders. Now, you claim that Twellman and Buddle didn't have lower productivity while they were affected by injury. That's just plain wrong.
     
  7. Liverpool_SC

    Liverpool_SC Member

    Jun 28, 2002
    Upstate, SC
    Goalkeepers and field players are completely different. Hudson has only played young field players grudgingly. Do you really want to argue about this?

    Eskandarian's production (strike rate) in 2003 was equivalent or better than all of the players mentioned in my post. No claims were made regarding overall player quality or career performance. 2003 performance no guarantee of future results.

    NEWSFLASH: Eskandarian had the best strike rate of any DC player (Stoichkov - who took pks - excepted). Yet received the least quality playing time of any DC forward (once you factor in injuries and signing dates). Perhaps Eskandarian's strike rate is pathetic, but it was the LEAST pathetic of any DC player (HS excepted) and it was LESS or NO LESS pathetic than many other players who receive praise on these boards.
     
  8. Liverpool_SC

    Liverpool_SC Member

    Jun 28, 2002
    Upstate, SC
    Your reading comprehension is . . . poor. I mentioned both of these as examples of guys with high rate stats.

    These are the most productive players in the league this season. Their rate stats were not affected (as their counting stats were) by the playing time they missed.
     
  9. garbaggio

    garbaggio Member

    Jan 3, 2001
    Arlington
    Esky's been a major disappointment but I'm willing to give him at least another full season before calling him a wasted draft pick.

    DC United had an anemic attack all season and any forward, including Esky, could have stepped forward to claim a regular starting spot. There's no doubt that Ray Hudson has a poor record when it comes to finding playing time for young players. But Esky was the one rookie who did see a fair amount of action. He played as early in the season as our 2nd game and, on a team which often brings in fresh forwards late in the game, had a reasonable number of opportunities to make an impression.

    Although he scored 3 goals I don't think any of them were very important. IIRC, he had 2 of them late against Columbus in a 3-0 win. Both were perfectly nice but neither was a game changer. I've forgotten his other goal but I'm pretty sure it didn't win or tie a game.

    I'm glad Grasscutter pointed out his contribution to the big comeback win in New England. Otherwise, my main memories of his season would consist of the hard collision with Convey, the blown header that should have won the "substitute goalkeeper Eddie Gaven" game against the Mutts, and the quick ejection within a few minutes of entering the game against Columbus.

    Based on this season's performance Earnie Stewart, Hristo Stoichkov, Ali Curtis, Ronald Cerritos and Thiago Martins are all forwards I would rather see brought on when we need a late goal.

    I also recognize that Alecko still has lots of development potential (as does Quaranta). Hopefully we'll see more of the upside next season.
     
  10. Lowecifer

    Lowecifer Member+

    Jan 11, 2000
    Baltimore, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    Here are his three goals:

    1. Columbus 6/14/03
    2. Columbus 6/14/03
    3. New England 7/27/03 - #4 in the amazing comeback win
     
  11. beineke

    beineke New Member

    Sep 13, 2000
    Look, p-rick, I tried to discuss things to you in a civilized way, but you keep trying to mock and insult me.

    You're full of crap, and I think I've already made that intellectually clear.
     
  12. Cuchulain

    Cuchulain Member

    Feb 18, 2003
    bardo city
    esky

    I don't know, I think a lot of folks are being pretty tough on the kid right now, given how much united basically sucked this year and how unstable the team was. I still remember a beautiful move he had in one of the crew games, I believe it was... granted that ain't much, but I'm not trying to itemize, just to say that I think it's early to give up on him.

    I'd like to see him get some starts next year, but I'm wondering how it'll work -- if earnie moves back to attacking mid, do you pair esky with cerritos, and move dema to wing opposite convey (I imagine we'll pick up a d-mid in the offseason). if so, what happens to tino? or does tino start, at least until he's injured? or is someone gone before the season starts? or does ray (if he's still here) continue to experiment with esky on the wing? seems like a whole season's been played and we still don't know where half the team should be.
     
  13. voros

    voros Member

    Jun 7, 2002
    Parts Unknown
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    What's funny is looking at the company Eskandarian is keeping in the non-penalty goals per 90 minutes list for 2003:

    McBride - .41
    Serna - .41
    Spencer - .40
    Chung - .38
    Eskandarian - .37
    Magee - .37
    Razov - .36
    Mathis - .36
    Kreis - .35

    The league average for guys listed strictly as forwards on MLS' statistics site was .34.

    Here's some career rates (non-penalty goals per 90 minutes) for some guys:

    Wolff - .46
    Razov - .49
    McBride - .33
    Mathis - .42
    Kreis - .39
    Preki - .25
    Donovan - .41
    Cunningham - .46
    Twellman - .73
    Ruiz - .55
    Buddle - .59
     
  14. Cuchulain

    Cuchulain Member

    Feb 18, 2003
    bardo city
    esky

    oh yeah, I forgot about martins...

    quaranta
    esky
    cerritos
    martins

    stewart
    dema

    who the hell starts up front? no stats, please, just conjecture.
     
  15. Liverpool_SC

    Liverpool_SC Member

    Jun 28, 2002
    Upstate, SC
    Re: esky

    Stats are great.

    Based on current form . . .

    My formation would have Cerritos and Dema up top with Stewart just behind them (I would pinch Benny and Convey in a bit and allow Namoff and Reyes to provide the width). We don't need much width, because we are not as dependant on the cross as most teams (at least the vertical type cross) and Convey and Olsen could still drift into space on the wings if they needed to. I would like to see a movement-based, short passing game through the center of the field. Convey/Olsen/Quaranta can all pull the trigger from long range and Earnie and Convey can move the ball quickly in this system. The forwards would be able to make shorter runs and would not have to hold the ball/hold position nearly as long as they had to this year when our buildup was slower.

    At the top of my wish list is a stellar holding midfielder - he must have lots of mobility. A Rico Clark, Richard Mulrooney or Shalrie Joseph would be great (must be quicker than Armas, as our central defenders are not as quick as Curtain/Boca).

    Esky would be first off the bench (quality minutes) and starter for Dema's inevitable suspensions. I would use Quaranta/Quintanilla for either Benny or Convey (or more likely as trade bait for the stellar holding midfielder). The holding midfielder would have to be very good to justify such a trade, but if he was very good - I think it would make all the difference in the world. If Martins can displace Cerritos - he is welcome to that spot.

    I hope we can re-sign Nelsen and put he and Petke in the middle.
     
  16. owendylan

    owendylan Member

    May 30, 2001
    Virginia
    Club:
    DC United
    Re: esky

    Well it's a complete possibility that Quaranta, cerritos and Martins will not be around next season so who knows. I think Esky sticks around and he should. He isn't a bust, but he's no Michael Owen either. He needs much more playing time, I'm just not sure he gets it with Hudson as coach. I think Martins has the best shot at staying also. It's hard to come in for a couple of games and fit in and contribute a lot. He's a big guy who also needs some time to blend in with the team so everyone can learn. Cerritos, while I like his style, hasn't produced in a while for any team he's been on. Injuries have played a part in this but I think someone else can be found, maybe for less money. Quaranta is the real conundrum. He has had a terrible year, once again marred by injury. Add to that the changes in his personal life and he is the one most in need of a scenery change. Hudson thinks he's a great talent, even if he pushes him around every now and then. Don't know if that's just more of Hudson's bluster, but I think the fuse has got to be pretty short with this kid. A lot will be determined once a decision about Hudson's future has been made.
     
  17. beineke

    beineke New Member

    Sep 13, 2000
    Interesting stuff; when you factor PK's back in, Mathis gets even worse (0 drawn, 1-3 made). By not drawing any PKs and shooting poorly, he effectively cost his team a goal or so.

    Most of the other players on this list helped their teams from the spot, either by converting a good % of PK's, or by drawing them ... Razov made 5-6; Spencer drew 1, made 4-5; McBride drew 1, made 2-2; Kreis drew 1, made 1-2; Serna and Chung drew 1 apiece. Only Eskandarian and Magee failed to help their teams in this respect.

    Quick ?:
    When you say the "average" is .34, is that total forward goals divided by total minutes, or is that the average ratio for forwards?

    Thx.
     
  18. Liverpool_SC

    Liverpool_SC Member

    Jun 28, 2002
    Upstate, SC
    So Esky was actually better than league average at scoring in the run of play, yet got only 729 minutes of playing time. He was even better than Razov, McBride, Spencer and some other double-digit goalscorers.


    This puts Esky in some pretty decent company. Granted he is not in the Twellman/Buddle range of productivity, but he is within spitting distance of Donovan, Mathis (who did play at midfield), Kreis, McBride, etc - even as a rookie. If he develops even a little bit, he looks like a player worth keeping around.

    Note that Twellman's injuries didn't seem to have too huge an impact on his strike rate - he was at 0.72 for the season. Almost dead on his strike rate from last season. Edsen Buddle was at 0.60 for the season, also almost dead on his career number. Rate stats are not typically going to be influenced by injuries unless coaches make players play hurt (i.e. < 90%) for a significant period of time.

    Amongst rookies, Pat Noonan was a stunning 0.55 despite playing much of his time in midfield and Damani Ralph was a very creditable 0.45 (without his one penalty kick).

    Had Alecko maintained his scoring rate and played the same number of minutes as Damani Ralph, he would have scored over eight goals (8.16) and had five (5.45) assists.

    Would that have been a satisfactory season?

    Pat Noonan is awesome.
     
  19. ursula

    ursula Member

    Feb 21, 1999
    Republic of Cascadia
    Okay okay. What if?

    To me the major thing that Alecko Eskandarian brings to mind is one of the major decisions that Ray Hudson made. Let's all go back in time...further...further...back to Ray's decision to plug in Ali Curtis to the everyday starting lineup instead of Esky?

    Now, I am NOT saying that Hudson did the wrong thing. In fact I think the purpose behind it was right: Ray was trying to get some stability at the heretofore awful forward production rate.

    So Ray decided to make at least one forward position have the same starter for a bunch of games in a row, and he chose Ali. We all know what happened. But what if it was Eski who was the chosen one?
     
  20. Lowecifer

    Lowecifer Member+

    Jan 11, 2000
    Baltimore, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    We would have chanted "Es-ky Bomaye" ?

    ;)
     
  21. beineke

    beineke New Member

    Sep 13, 2000
    Re: Okay okay. What if?

    Seems as if Hudson tried to choose Eskandarian, starting him for three straight games in May. The results, however, were dismal (draw w/ KC, losses to NY and Dallas). After that, he put in Curtis and the team did better.
     
  22. elconejito

    elconejito Member

    Dec 24, 2002
    Where Homer Lives
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If I recall correctly, they were all well taken goals. Other than the missed header against the scum, I don't think i remember him missing many shots, at least not like some of our other strikers have put them over and wide.

    I think he just needs more/better service from our midfield.

    My memory could be bad tho...
     
  23. nancyb

    nancyb Member

    Jun 30, 2000
    Falls Church, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Announcement

    I'm not going to pay a lot for this muffler.
     
  24. ursula

    ursula Member

    Feb 21, 1999
    Republic of Cascadia
    Re: Re: Okay okay. What if?


    True, and yet Ali scored just once, and that in a game we lost. Maybe Esky wasn't responsible for those earlier losses?
     
  25. beineke

    beineke New Member

    Sep 13, 2000
    Re: Re: Re: Okay okay. What if?

    Maybe not, but DC clearly wasn't getting anywhere with him in the line-up. Hudson did give him two more chances later in the season, and DC scored only once in those two games.
     

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