English Premier League U.S. (and Canadian) TV rights speculation thread

huhe888 · Aug 8, 2012

Now that the moderators have closed the beIN SPORT 1 USA speculation thread in preparation for the launch of beIN SPORT 1 USA on DIRECTV by August 17, the speculation moves to the next major soccer television business event on the calendar:

The Invitation to Tender (ITT) documents by the Football Association Premier League Limited (FAPL) for both the U.S. and Canada will be released in September, with the date of release expected by the industry to be on Thursday, September 6, 2012.

The bid deadline for the video rights in the U.S. and Canada for the Barclays (English) Premier League for August 2013-May 2016 is expected to be Friday, October 5, 2012 at 12noon New York Time (1700 London Time.) If a 2nd round of bidding were necessary, the deadline for the 2nd roun d is expected to be on Friday, October 12, 2012.

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The situation in Canada is more straight forward compared to the U.S., as beIN SPORT LLC (USA) MUST select a Canadian media company as majority partner before beIN SPORT 1 Canada can be launched due to CRTC ownership rules for Canadian sports TV networks.

Speculation during the past month has centered on TeleLatino Network, which operates EuroWorld Sport (EWS). EWS currently has no rights to any programming after August 16 with the exception of a sublicense from the CBC for FIFA events through December 31, 2014 (including the upcoming FIFA Women's U-20 World Cup.) Converting EWS into beIN SPORT 1 Canada is one possibility.

The other possibility is for beIN SPORT LLC to partner with Maple Leaf Sports Entertainment (MLSE) to convert GOLTV Canada. This option will require beIN SPORT LLC to purchase the 19.9% stake in GOLTV Canada that is being held by GOLTV, Inc. (USA). I consider this to be unlikely as GOLTV, Inc. has made no secret of its distain toward beIN SPORT LLC.

If beIN SPORT LLC were to apply with the CRTC for a new soccer-centric digital TV licence, the process will take 6-9 months and will be far from guaranteed, as competitors will likely file multiple interventions with the CRTC in an effort to block the licence application.

Regardless of which Canadian company beIN SPORT LLC were to partner, I expect that Canadian company to win the Canadian video rights to EPL comfortably, with a bid of $45-50 million for 3 seasons, up from the current valuation of $6 million.

Based on a relatively simple analysis of subscriber fees collected by incumbent Rogers Media's subscription channel Sportsnet World, I determined that the absolute upper bound for Rogers Media's "threshold of pain" is $39 million even if Rogers were to bid 100% of subscriber fees collected from Sportsnet World from 100000 subscribers at $20/month for 10 months/years over 3 years with Rogers Cable accounting for 30000 out of 100000 subscribers.

Note that Bell Media Sports, which operates TSN, TSN2, RDS and RDS2 (among others) and is 33 % owned by ESPN Inc., is a sublicensee of EPL in Canada. A sublicensee is guaranteed to win because it has the advantage of being able to shop themselves around the lead bidders in order to gather enough information before deciding which bid to back. I expect Bell Media Sports to be contacted by both Rogers Media and whatever company beIN SPORT LLC will select as its Canadian partner before deciding whether to back beIN SPORT LLC (more likely) or Rogers Media.

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The situation in the U.S. is murkier.

Until we can determine the exact minimum household requirement stipulation the FAPL will put in the ITT, we can only speculate whether beIN SPORT LLC will have to partner with a much bigger media company.

Based on all information I have so far, I believe that the mostly likely scenario is for EPL sublicensee ESPN, Inc. to partner with beIN SPORT LLC instead of FOX Sports Media Group before the bids are due on October 5.

I will re-evaluate as more information becomes available.

TJNash · Aug 8, 2012

huhe888 said: ↑

Now that the moderators have closed the beIN SPORT 1 USA speculation thread in preparation for the launch of beIN SPORT 1 USA on DIRECTV by August 17, the speculation moves to the next big soccer business event on the calendar:

The release of the Invitation to Tender (ITT) documents by the Football Association Premier Limited Limited (FAPL), anticipated to be on Thursday September 6, 2012.

The bid deadline for the video rights in the U.S. and Canada for the Barclays (English) Premier League for August 2013-May 2016 is expected to be Friday, October 5, 2012 at 12noon New York Time (1700 London Time.) If a 2nd round of bidding were necessary, the deadline for the 2nd round is expected to be on Friday, October 12, 2012.

--

The situation in Canada is more straight forward compared to the U.S., as beIN SPORT LLC MUST select a Canadian media company as majority partner before beIN SPORT 1 Canada can be launched.

Speculation during the past month has centered on TeleLatino Network, which operates EuroWorld Sport (EWS). EWS currently has no rights to any programming after August 16 with the exception of a sublicense from the CBC for FIFA events through December 31, 2014 (including the upcoming FIFA Women's U-20 World Cup.) Converting EWS into beIN SPORT 1 Canada is one possibility.

The other possibility is for beIN SPORT LLC to partner with Maple Leaf Sports Entertainment (MLSE) to convert GOLTV Canada. This option will require beIN SPORT LLC to purchase the 19.9% stake in GOLTV Canada that is being held by GOLTV, Inc. I consider this to be unlikely as GOLTV, Inc. has made no secret of its distain toward beIN SPORT LLC.

If beIN SPORT LLC were to apply with the CRTC for a new soccer-centric digital TV licence, the process will take 6-9 months and will be far from guaranteed, as competitors will likely file multiple interventions with the CRTC in an effort to block the licence application.

Regardless of which Canadian company beIN SPORT LLC were to partner, I expect that Canadian company to win the Canadian rights to EPL comfortably, with a bid of $45-50 million for 3 seasons, up from the current valuation of $6 million. Based on a relatively simple analysis of subscriber fees collected by incumbent Rogers Media's subscription channel Sportsnet World, I determined that the absolute upper bound for Rogers Media's "threshold of pain" is $39 million even if Rogers were to bid 100% of subscriber fees collected from Sportsnet World.

Note that Bell Media Sports, which operates TSN, TSN2, RDS and RDS2 (among others) and is 33 % owned by ESPN Inc., is a sublicensee of EPL in Canada. A sublicensee is guaranteed to win because it has the advantage of being able to shop themselves around the lead bidders in order to gather enough information before deciding which bid to back. I expect Bell Media Sports to be contacted by both Rogers Media and whatever company beIN SPORT LLC will select as its Canadian partner before deciding whether to back beIN SPORT LLC (more likely) or Rogers Media.

--

The situation in the U.S. is murkier.

Until we can determine the exact minimum household requirement stipulation the FAPL will put in the ITT, we can only speculate whether beIN SPORT LLC will have to partner with a much bigger media company.

Based on all information I have so far, I believe that the mostly likely scenario is for EPL sublicensee ESPN, Inc. to partner with beIN SPORT LLC instead of FOX Sports Media Group before the bids are due on October 5.

I will re-evaluate as more information becomes available.
Click to expand...

Cut. Paste. Repeat, ad nauseum.

How about we all take a day or two off from this?

unclesox · Aug 8, 2012

7spencer7 · Aug 8, 2012

I'm glad what was one thread (well two if you count the Canadian one which is full of just as much BS as the American one was) has now split off into two by locking it, this one and the "continued" one. What exactly did locking the thread accomplish? At least it before it was locked it kept things relatively contained.

toshiaki · Aug 9, 2012

Just a note for those new to Oliver vs Everyone, the real thread is over here:

https://www.bigsoccer.com/community/threads/bein-sports-cont.1971677

huhe888 · Aug 9, 2012

By September 6, there won't be anything to speculate that is specific to beIN SPORT LLC (USA).

The real action will shift to this thread.

28 days left before FAPL chief executive Richard Scudamore is expected to issue the most anticipated ITTs for the US and Canada in the short history of the EPL.

toshiaki · Aug 24, 2012

So we now have two locked BeIn threads, with no explanation in either thread why they're locked. Most board typically have the mod doing the locking at least post a final message in it on why it's being locked.

The second lockage is pretty strange since Oliver didn't even post on the last 7 pages of the thread, and those pages were non-controversial. The only "debate" in them was a La Liga vs Serie A discussion that was about as mild as you'll find on the net.

Anyway, I guess this becomes the EPL US Rights Speculation Thread. It would be nice to have an answer to the lockage issue so that posters in this thread know what vague line is draw that would risk this one to get locked.

Redbullsnation2012 · Aug 24, 2012

I think FOX/Univision/ESPN will throw money around to get the EPL rights AWAY AWAY AWAY from JSC, its clear to me that JSC doesn't want to sublicence, so that move makes sense...

Cantona · Aug 24, 2012

I agree with Toshiaki... NOTE TO MODS... if you are going to close a thread.. DOC WHY..

back to topic on this thread..
the key here is Scudamore.. surely he has been watching the BeIN situation. Will he offer a full package and realistically know that he would need to give it to FOX.. and then see them make money off a sublicence agreement to ESPN and BeIN? no... I would bet he doesnt want to lose money.. but knows he needs to maximize viewership.. which is what he gets with Fox. I would expect the Premier League to offer 2 or 3 package deal to the US. One that begs for BeIN to bid for.. most likely Third Tier games..mostly during the week... BeIN has too much content right now and not enough channels for live soccer. BeIN have already put feelers out to FOX for a combined bid.. FOX is in the driving seat right now.. they know BeIN can get the rights by themselves.. and ESPN doesnt have enough room either.. so they have to go to bed with FOX.

Forget the college sports swaps and ESPN only crap Oliver has been spewing.. FOX is still king in the EPL for the next cycle.

Cantona---

ceezmad · Aug 25, 2012

Real Corona!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Fulham9 · Aug 25, 2012

Cantona said: ↑

I agree with Toshiaki... NOTE TO MODS... if you are going to close a thread.. DOC WHY..

back to topic on this thread..
the key here is Scudamore.. surely he has been watching the BeIN situation. Will he offer a full package and realistically know that he would need to give it to FOX.. and then see them make money off a sublicence agreement to ESPN and BeIN? no... I would bet he doesnt want to lose money.. but knows he needs to maximize viewership.. which is what he gets with Fox. I would expect the Premier League to offer 2 or 3 package deal to the US. One that begs for BeIN to bid for.. most likely Third Tier games..mostly during the week... BeIN has too much content right now and not enough channels for live soccer. BeIN have already put feelers out to FOX for a combined bid.. FOX is in the driving seat right now.. they know BeIN can get the rights by themselves.. and ESPN doesnt have enough room either.. so they have to go to bed with FOX.

Forget the college sports swaps and ESPN only crap Oliver has been spewing.. FOX is still king in the EPL for the next cycle.

Cantona---
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You're all over the map here, on the one hand you say "BeIN has too much content right now and not enough channels for live soccer" and then say "(FOX) knows BeIN can get the rights by themselves".

BeIN cannot get the rights by themselves unless Scudamore designs a midweek-heavy package specifically for BeIN to win.

Also, why do you say that "ESPN doesn't have enough room either"? ESPN has plenty of room for everything but the Saturday 12:30 ET match. In fact, with ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, ESPNNews, ESPNCL and ESPN3 they have the most room and most diverse set of platforms compared to all other competitors. I think ESPN will certainly be a player and I wouldn't discount NBC either.

MLSFan123 · Aug 25, 2012

Cantona said: ↑

I would bet he doesnt want to lose money.. but knows he needs to maximize viewership.. which is what he gets with Fox
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If he wants to maximize viewership, Fox falls well behind both ESPN and NBC.

NBCSN is in ~double the homes of FSC
ESPN2 is in more than double the homes of FSC

I don't see Fox utilizing FX enough to make a difference

Fox will use their OTA channel to expand on the poor FSC footprint but NBC can easily match that. Note that NBC is showing multiple MLS games on the OTA channel this fall.

Cantona · Aug 25, 2012

obviously that was a typo on my part.. BeIN CANNOT get the rights by themselves ...

ESPN does NOT have the space to put on the EPL... they dont mind one or two games here and there but they have to fit that in between current programming.. ie college football.. ESPN will never have more than 2 EPL games a week on their networks.

Cantona---

krazykanuck777 · Aug 25, 2012

Fulham9 said: ↑

BeIN cannot get the rights by themselves unless Scudamore designs a midweek-heavy package specifically for BeIN to win.
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Monday night package of 12 EPL matches to be carved out. Neither FOX nor ESPN want that package. You heard that here first. No need to wait until September 6.

The "dynamic duo" already have plenty of "beANz" in their private account at "LGT Bank" to bid on that package for beAN SPORT.

Boxing is also perfect for the "dynamic duo", as boxing depends of the flow of "beANz", lots and lots of "beANz", as a "lubricant".

Fulham9 · Aug 25, 2012

Cantona said: ↑

obviously that was a typo on my part.. BeIN CANNOT get the rights by themselves ...

ESPN does NOT have the space to put on the EPL... they dont mind one or two games here and there but they have to fit that in between current programming.. ie college football.. ESPN will never have more than 2 EPL games a week on their networks.

Cantona---
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That simply isn't true. The EPL and college football are perfectly complementary. College football doesn't start until 12:00 ET. So ESPN can carry everything but the 12:30 ET match, and the Sunday matches fit perfectly with ESPN's schedule.

Cantona · Aug 25, 2012

no there are not complimentary...
lead in/pre game shows will always be favored instead of EPL.... look at previous ESPN programming choices...

Cantona---

Lovac1 · Aug 25, 2012

Are you saying espn would favor chris berman, the coach, lee corso, and fantasy football over epl? I am shocked!

Fulham9 · Aug 26, 2012

Cantona said: ↑

no there are not complimentary...
lead in/pre game shows will always be favored instead of EPL.... look at previous ESPN programming choices...

Cantona---
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College and NFL GameDay are on one channel. ESPN2 and all the other channels need programming too. Why are you being willfully ignorant about this?

Lovac1 · Aug 26, 2012

Yes, but they have their fantasy footbal show on espn2 sundays plus sportscenter on saturdays and sundays. No way epl squeezes in there.

Fulham9 · Aug 26, 2012

Lovac1 said: ↑

Yes, but they have their fantasy footbal show on espn2 sundays plus sportscenter on saturdays and sundays. No way epl squeezes in there.
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Again, ESPN has 5 channels to fill with programming in addition to ESPN3. It is ridiculous, in my opinion, to argue that ESPN doesn't have the space for more EPL. Not to mention the fact that none of your argument applies from January through May.

krazykanuck777 · Aug 26, 2012

Situations in U.S. and Canada entirely different:

Canada - TeleLatino has multiple channels to fill including TLN, TLN en Español, Sky TG 24, and beAN SPORT Canada. That means as many as 4 EPL matches can air simultaneously. If beAN SPORT want to blow 45-50 million "beANs" on EPL, then TeleLatino will blow Rogers away as the next EPL rights holder.

U.S. - beAN SPORT only has 2 channels, one studio, and at most 4 Internet streams available (if Imagina U.S. can ever get its back end to work properly in order to stream live video without drop outs.) Coupled with the big EPL clubs wanting to keep some matches on channels that clear at least 40 million subscribers, and one can almost guess what will happen come September 6: the 12-match Monday night package, as a minimum, will be carved out from the rest of the bundle, with no strings attached, so that Scudamore can rake in the "beANz".

TJNash · Aug 26, 2012

krazykanuck777 said: ↑

Situations in U.S. and Canada entirely different:

Canada - TeleLatino has multiple channels to fill including TLN, TLN en Español, Sky TG 24, and beAN SPORT Canada. That means as many as 4 EPL matches can air simultaneously. If beAN SPORT want to blow 45-50 million "beANs" on EPL, then TeleLatino will blow Rogers away as the next EPL rights holder.

U.S. - beAN SPORT only has 2 channels, one studio, and at most 4 Internet streams available (if Imagina U.S. can ever get its back end to work properly in order to stream live video without drop outs.) Coupled with the big EPL clubs wanting to keep some matches on channels that clear at least 40 million subscribers, and one can almost guess what will happen come September 6: the 12-match Monday night package, as a minimum, will be carved out from the rest of the bundle, with no strings attached, so that Scudamore can rake in the "beANz".
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Your new alias is nauseating, Ollie.

EDIT: Looks like he's been red carded. Oh, Ollie, you are such an a**.

Lovac1 · Aug 26, 2012

No question that espn has plenty of platforms to put epl on other than two main channels but there is no way they will pay top money for the product and then put it mainly on espn3 or espnu. Epl wouldn't allow it. All I am saying is that espn has an attractive programs (for us audience) in place on its two main channels at the time slots epl takes and won't overpay for epl.

UEFAJason · Aug 27, 2012

The Invitation To Tender is a week from Friday...

For the sake of fanbase growth, I'd like to see Fox get the whole kit and caboodle and utilize their entire cable platform to show all matches live.

MLSFan123 · Aug 27, 2012

espnjason said: ↑

For the sake of fanbase growth, I'd like to see Fox get the whole kit and caboodle and utilize their entire cable platform to show all matches live.
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This does not make any sense.

Even if Fox was to use its other channels, the vast majority of games would be on FSC which still only reaches ~42 million households.

If you are looking for fan base growth, NBC offers as many or more outlets to show the game and obviously NBCSN, where the vast majority of games would be played, is in ~double the homes of FSC, making NBC's ability to grow the audiance much greater than Fox's.

Just look at the viewer growth MLS got from a simple move from FSC to NBCSN.