English players Dual Nationality thread

https://www.sportsnet.ca/soccer/fifa-shapes-new-rule-help-players-switch-national-team/

This is ridiculous. So by these new rules odoi could still be eligible for Ghana if he doesn't get an England cap in the forseeable future. Saka could still be eligible for Nigeria even if he only gets one competitive cap

 

That’s crazy! This only benefits the smaller Nations and in particular the African Countries. Countries like England, Germany, France and probably The Netherlands will get hit hard with this rule I would think.

I would add though that I guess the only saving grace is that it only applies to players under 21 years old if I understood correctly so hopefully it remains that way worst case scenario but I would guess that this is just a start so FIFA can once again move the goalposts in the future.

 

It's not that bad. A player can't switch until 3 years after their last cap. They can't switch if they were capped after their 21st birthday. They can't switch if they have 4 or more caps for a national team. They can only switch if they made a decision as a very young player that didn't work out and that they now regret.

I take the point about moving the goalposts further at a later date, but I'd be inclined to object to that if and when they do, rather than objecting to this preemptively.

 

Yeah, I seemed to have overlooked the part where it said a player can’t switch until 3 years after their last cap which would probably mean that player won’t be considered an important Squad player anyway, so yeah on second thoughts it’s not quite that bad.

Still it might not get passed yet anyway as needs to be agreed by 211 Nations and I’m not sure what the majority vote needs to be to change the rule. I would guess it will get passed though as I would presume it helps the majority more.

 

So basically someone like odoi can't play for ghana till he's 24 or saka if he gets capped by England then he won't be able to play for Nigeria till he's 22

 

The Irish are wetting themselves over grealish switching back to Ireland because of this rule. They're convinced he wants to play for them. Hes not interested in switching back. Apparently he told Paul mcgrath that he regretted switching to England. Bullshit. They're even saying offer him the captaincy to make his mind up

 

To be fair, from the bits I read, most don’t seem to want him back and to be honest after the vile abuse he received after the switch I would be surprised if he was even in a hurry to even go back.

 

To echo what has been said above on this new rule, it doesn't do much at all. I'm struggling to think of a player eligible for Jamaica who would regain eligibility through this rule. I don't know that there is one.

Further, any player who did become eligible under this rule will certainly be a player who is out of favor with the larger nation anyway. Take the scenario below to illustrate:

Let's say Mason Greenwood accepts an England cap later this year. He will turn 21 on October 1, 2022. He can switch three years after his final appearance in a competitive game. But for that switch to be possible, he will have to have had no more than 3 such appearances, and all of those caps must have come prior to October 1, 2022.

If he only ever gets 3 caps but the 3rd comes in November of 2022, he can't switch. If he only ever gets 4 England caps but they all come between September 2020 and October 2022, he can't switch. If he gets just 3 caps between September 2020 and October 2022, and the last comes in November of 2021, Jamaica can't cap him until November of 2024, and he must not obtain even a single additional cap in in that 3 year span - if he's capped in, say, a June 2023 friendly, he will have more than three official or non-official appearances and, by the wording of the statute as drafted, can't switch.

So you can see just how narrow the window here is. A very specific set of circumstances needs to be met here, and it is virtually impossible to imagine a scenario in which any player England truly wants/needs will fit those circumstances and be poached by a country like Jamaica (or Nigeria, Ireland, etc).

If a player like Greenwood did meet these criteria, though, it will be because something went seriously wrong. We're talking a serious injury (or string of injuries), a massive dip in form, legal trouble, off-field controversy, or some combination of all of those things. One or more of those factors will be required in order for a player like Greenwood to only manage 3 or fewer caps in the next 2 years, and then not get a single cap after October 1 2022.

In short: this is nothing to worry about. Any players England loses to this rule will almost certainly be players they don't want.

I do think the goalposts are highly likely to move here. I could see the age rising from 21 pretty easily to, say, 25, and 3 caps turning into 5 with the 3 year cool-off period remaining the same. That could happen by WC 2030, easily.

Even then, however, this wouldn't be a threat. You'd be losing older players (27-31, probably) who got a little run but are clearly not going to be around the squad going forward and have been decisively surpassed in the player pool. These are the Tom Huddlestones and Gabby Agbonlahors of the world.

Here's the most extreme version of this rule, and likely as far as it will go (the "endgame", so to speak):

- The age limit is removed entirely
- The 3 year "cool-off" period remains, or is extended slightly (call it 4 years)
- The limit on caps is removed entirely

Under this scenario, any former England player could switch nationalities, regardless of when or how many times they appeared for England, so long as :

1. They were eligible for the nation to which they are now switching prior to their first England cap and
2. They are 3 or 4 years removed from their last England cap.

This is as extreme as it will get in my opinion, and it's still not much of a threat. All this really would do is allow older players who had previously been eligible for more than one nation and have cycled out of the setups of nations like England or France to have second runs in the twilight of their careers.

From a Jamaica perspective this would make players like Daniel Sturridge, Aaron Lennon, Andros Townsend and Theo Walcott, who are still solid pros but largely beyond their usefulness for England, eligible to switch right now. Darren Bent, who last played for England in 2011, could have switched in 2015 and picked up a handful of caps before retiring (he probably, in that scenario, would have been invited to both the 2015 and 2016 Copa Americas - a decent way to cap off a career).

Maybe Ashley Young, assuming he doesn't get another England cap (seems pretty certain he wont), could go get 3 or 4 appearances for Jamaica in the 2021 Gold Cup and another handful in 2022 qualifiers to try and see if he can get to Qatar and then end his career.

Perhaps Ashley Cole could have done a little run for Barbados during their qualifiers for the 2018 World Cup, if he cared to. Nathaniel Clyne (who I just realized seems to have completely disappeared after being an England regular for a while, oddly) could play for Grenada next year if he wanted to.

I do expect this extreme scenario to come to pass sometime in the next couple of decades (it will undoubtedly find support among most of the 211 FIFA nations, since most of them would benefit) but, again, this is not a real threat to deprive England or any other large nation of players it really wants.

There's just no plausible scenario where the world's football powers do not get first dibs on top dual-nationals ahead of the Jamaicas, Nigerias, Irelands, Scotlands, Senegals, etc of the world, despite how badly some fans of said smaller nations would like to see it. If England/France/Germany want a player, they're going to get them, period. All FIFA will be able to do is increase access to the players who aren't wanted.

 

Nice post, and I tend to agree - players get cap tied quite early and if they then subsequently drop well out of the reckoning it would be good to see them able to go elsewhere. Having a long gap between last cap means players won't hold out at any point really.

I think initially it may be a bit of a mess, as a great swathe of people become eligible for certain nations at the same time, but that goes over time

 

I remember when di Stefano was playing for Spain and Argentina then some other nation. Ridiculous at the time. Hope that doesn't happen again

 

BTW I'm not actually old enough to remember it though but it happened

 

On the other hand, Costa Rica are down, the USMNT is untested, and Jamaica has made at least the semifinals of the last 3 regional championships in the past 5 years and have a bye into the final round of qualifying. So they have a decent shot this time around as is. Two or three EPL players could tilt the balance in their favor.

 

That's a reason for Jamaica to chase Premier League players. I'm not seeing how it's a reason for Premier League players to accept.

 

It depends on the players. There's a reason for them to accept if:

1. There is not a very certain place in an England squad for them now or in the future, but they still want international football; AND
2. They actually have an affinity for the island that is strong enough to warrant dealing with the travel, jet-lag, etc.

As I've mentioned here before, many EPL players simply dont fit either bill and so have no reason to accept, but some are a little more mixed. I don't see how a Reece James would even consider committing to Jamaica right now, but Demarai Gray and Nathan Redmond are in a different place.

 

Ireland have been chasing Redmond for a while now and he's even said that he's interested in playing for them yet when it comes to it he won't actually commit. He probably harbours the belief that he'll have that big season in a tournament year and get called up for England.

There are a number of English players that have offers from other nations like Patrick Bamford (Ireland) and Tom Cairney (Scotland) but despite seemingly showing interest when it comes to it they don't want to play for those nations. In Cairney's case he's actually played for Scotland but has been ducking call ups from them in recent times so I think they've walked away from him. Ryan Shawcross was the same with Wales, he went there and just wasn't feeling it, for whatever reason.

I think that perhaps Jamaica may have a stronger cultural pull for some players, the history and heritage but attracting those players might prove less than straight forward.

 

Cant see any epl players going for Jamaica. Their best bet would be league 1 or 2, which isn't that bad a standard

 

I mean, can't blame him. Jamie Vardy exists.

It's always been that way, hence why I included point #2 above. There are plenty of players who, on paper, made sense as Jamaica commits - Jason Puncheon, Nathan Dyer, Troy Deeney, Wayne Routledge, Michail Antonio, etc.

They ultimately never committed because they just don't care to. It's not about having realistic England chances or anything to do with the Three Lions, they just could care less about representing Jamaica. It is what it is.

I do think we will see a mid/lower tier EPL player or two commit to Jamaica in the future. It has happened before - guys like Adrian Mariappa, Nyron Nosworthy, and Wes Morgan exist. Most of these guys are more elite Championship players than they are solid EPL footballers, but a few had substantial EPL stints and showed some longevity at that level. They won't be the last of their kind to represent us.

But such players are relatively rare. I just wouldn't expect this flood of big name EPL players to show up. A lot of Jamaica fans are getting excited making fantasy Jamaica XIs with Greenwood (who I fully expect to see in Southgate's squad tomorrow) leading the line and Reece James holding down the left flank next to Mason Holgate and behind Leon Bailey, with Demarai Gray and Nathan Redmond rotating in. I'd love to see that as much as anyone, but it isn't going to happen and we should temper expectations. We do have a statistically significant chance of getting a Gray or Holgate to commit eventually if they don't advance in Southgate's eyes over the next few years, but only if we're lucky. We should really plan on seeing 0 of these bigger name players committing.

 

Jamaica only needs 2-3 to get where they want to go, though.

I would say in the recent past one big hold up was Jamaica lacking regional success. Now they have a team that's been to at least the semis in the past 3 Gold Cups and a bye to the final WCQ round.

 

Our best bet is really the Championship. Our recruiting tends to focus on players in the Championship for a reason - it's the level where the players tend to be good enough to meaningfully enhance our player pool, while simultaneously being obscure enough for us not to have to compete with England for their commitment.

Plenty of solid players at that level have already committed to Jamaica: Chey Dunkley at Wednesday, Daniel Johnson of PNE, Amari'i Bell at Blackburn, Kemar Roofe (who is in Scotland playing for Steven Gerrard at the moment but is very good at the Championship level) etc, and many more are eligible and plausible future commits (think Kevin Stewart at Hull, Andre Gray at Watford, Liam Moore and Tyler Blackett at Reading, etc).

To put it simply, League 2 players just aren't generally good enough to help us. Same goes for League 1, although obviously to a lesser extent.

League 2 is not a bad standard, and for smaller islands those players are major boosts. Most Caribbean teams can't field 23 fully professional players. Teams like Guyana, Antigua and St. Kitts regularly bring in L1, L2 and even National League guys and those players really do offer them big boosts. This is because, absent such players, they'd primarily be fielding players from their own very mediocre domestic leagues where professionalism is non-existent even in comparison to an English 6th tier side.

Jamaica is in a different position, with a much larger pool of actual pro footballers to draw from. Jamaica's domestic league is not good, per se, but it is much better than most of the rest of the Caribbean. Players in the Jamaican top tier who have enough talent for Leagues 1 or 2 are actually not uncommon, and were it not for English football's work permit restrictions, Jamaicans could be very common there.

This means that a 23-30 year old player who is pretty firmly a League 1 or 2 player without much upside doesn't offer much for us. Jamaica already has plenty of players at or above that level competing in Jamaica or in the US first (MLS) or second (USL) tiers.

The Championship, which I consider a small step above MLS (L1 is below, IMO), offers a different standard. Jamaica has some players at home or based in the USA who are good enough for that level, but not nearly as many, so they tend to be worth recruiting. And the fact that there tend to always be a decent number of players at that level who are eligible and willing to commit to Jamaica makes looking at L1 or L2 players even less likely.

We also, frankly, have to aim higher to get where we want to be.

If you're Antigua or Guyana and the CONCACAF Gold Cup is your World Cup, a few L1/L2 guys plus a handful of solid non-leaguers from the English 5th or 6th tiers can get you there. Guys like the once promising Matthew Briggs (anyone remember him?), Callum Harriott and Neil Danns are huge boosts for teams like Guyana. Sam Cox, who was once a Tottenham youth and spent a little time in League 2 before becoming a lifelong non-leaguer, captained Guyana to the nation's first Gold Cup appearance last year. It was a great achievement for them, I enjoyed watching it. Guyana made history and those players got to get closer to their ancestral roots and add international football to their resumes.

If your goal is to win the Gold Cup, though, it's another story. CONCACAF isn't UEFA but it's not a total joke - to win a Gold Cup, you've got to get beyond the Americans and the Mexicans, primarily, and then the Central American trio of Costa rica, Honduras and Panama (which one of these three is best varies by cycle - recently it was Panama, but obviously we all remember Costa Rica's golden WC run not long ago) plus Canada (who tend to underperform but are occasionally very dangerous).

These teams are fielding multiple players who compete at the games highest level, and several more who compete at the next highest level (Championship/Super Lig/Eredivisie/Liga MX/MLS/etc). Even the Canadians have a starter who is first choice at a Champion's League winning club. We can't compete with them relying primarily on L2/L1 talent.

So TL;DR: I don't doubt that there will be at least one or two L1 players who could help us (probably on the younger side), but they'll never be the focus. They can't be if we remain ambitious.

 

Neco Williams called up to Wales squad. That was always gonna happen. He's young, sits on the bench for a prem team and hes eligible for England. The 3 main attributes that get you a Wales call up these days.

 

PL starts when first called up to senior national team:

Callum Hudson-Odoi: 0
Fikayo Tomori: 5
Mason Mount: 0
Neco Williams: 3

And you can't ignore that Wales have a much weaker player pool. I genuinely believe he's already in their best 23 players on merit, what lower league journeyman would they call up if they passed him over?

And also you can't ignore that he is Welsh.

 

No he is Welsh I won't argue with that. It just kinda stinks of a tie down so he doesn't change his mind. Fair enough he's had 3 prem starts, didn't know that.
Plus, I guess he would have some major competition in his position if he did choose England

 

Not concerned over Williams. He wouldn't get in ahead of our right backs anyway

 

It will be interesting to see what World Cup expansion does for Jamaica. Gold Cups are nice but let's be honest, they don't get nearly as much respect abroad. I doubt many high level Jamaica-eligible players in the UK are excited about hoisting Gold Cup trophies. It's a nice bonus and a small draw, that's all.

What will make a difference, though, are World Cup berths. The 2026 expansion means 6 or 7 teams from CONCACAF will make it to the World Cup. Jamaica is already regularly among the top 6 nations in the region, so there's potential here for Jamaica to qualify quite often, and perhaps even become a regular.

Right now, it's hard to sell Jamaica as a path to World Cups because we have not been to the tournament in a generation. Mason Greenwood and Reece James were not even conceived when we last appeared in 1998. Entire generations of youths have been born and grown into men since Jamaica last reached that level. That doesn't help recruiting.

But if we could legitimately offer the World Cup to any potential commit? That'd be nice.

 

Updates for today

- You don't need me to tell you this but Greenwood and Phillips have been called up. Greenwood was obvious, but Phillips I'm a bit surprised by. Figured we'd have a little more time before losing him, but it is what it is. Hopefully he is cap tied and we can stop speculating about him.

- Andre Gray of Watford has reportedly started the process of obtaining his Jamaica passport.

- Dwight Gayle has reportedly been approached and is still undecided between England and Jamaica. My view on this is to forget about him - he turns 30 in October, has never been more than a reserve/rotation guy at the EPL level, and is currently a bench guy at Newcastle. His England chances aren't exactly sky high. If he isn't serious now, I doubt he will ever be.

- Isaac Hayden is on the radar. Decent asset in the defensive midfield. Jamaica hasn't forgotten about Kevin Stewart either.

- Izzy Brown is, like Gayle, still hopeful for England.