Ian's Upset Special: Simon over Davis for CA Gov I've just got a feeling we are going to see a monumental upset for CA governor and I feel more confident in making this prediction every day. GOP’S Simon In Dead Heat With Democrat Gray Davis WASHINGTON, D.C. – With only four days until the election, GOP nominee Bill Simon has pulled to a statistical dead heat with incumbent Democrat Gray Davis, who appears unable to rally above the 45 percent mark in the California governor’s race. While polls vary, Davis has remained unable to rise above the low 40s in his re-election bid – a factor that media analysts and pundits believe is dangerous for the incumbent. An overnight field poll conducted on October 30 shows Republican Simon leading Gray Davis by three points – 42 percent to 39 percent. The survey conducted by the Polling Company, Inc. used a sample of 500 likely voters. The poll indicates a growing surge for the Republican nominee. A similar poll conducted by the widely-read FIELD poll reported Simon trailing by seven points – 41 percent to 34 percent. In other good news for Simon, the new survey shows Davis’ unfavorable ratings at 57 percent – one of the highest negative ratings of any governor in the country.
I'm gonna assume we're naming possible upsets here. I don't think Bowles will win over Liddy Dole, but he's got a real chance. In the last 2 national elections, Dems, nationally, have outperformed the last polls before the election. There are two theories about that. The first is that in '98, pollsters' models about who would and wouldn't vote were skewed by impeachment. And 2000, well, they just missed it. My theory (and right now, it's just a theory) is that the Dems' grassroots, ground war-type activities have gotten very good, and the pollsters' models haven't caught up yet. The Dems got creamed in '94, and were shaken out of their complacency. And they've been putting more and smarter efforts into identifying their voters early, and then getting them out to vote. (That part isn't theory, it's fact.) The theory part has to do with pollsters being behind the curve. If that is what happened the last two elections, and if the pollsters still haven't caught up, I expect that the winner in the Senate race here will have 51% or less. One factor that may hurt Bowles is that the Reeps had a lawsuit against the Dems' redistricting plan for the legislature, found a Helms' protege judge to hear the case, and the judge just rolled the Dems. Basically, he accepted the Reeps' awful, anti-democratic plan instead of the Dems' awful, anti-democratic plan. But the Dems are in power, so their awful plan should be the one. Anyway, the upshot is, Bowles isn't going to get much help from Dems running for the state legislature. Not so many Dems are working hard to win, because not so many Dems have a fair chance.
I won't go as far as Ian, but if Davis is having serious problems getting above 45 precent, then he's in danger. It is unlikely that he's going to have a lot of motivated followers to turn out for him. We'll see..
I stopped believing that things would be much better under Repubs than Demos a long time ago, but I will break out the Dom Perrignon if Simon beats Davis. The are few politicians more pusillanimous than Davis and he's been such a failure that it would be a crime to give him another term. I will make this bold prediction, however - even if the GOP has both houses, things won't change much. Jeffords would land in a world of hurt, though.
Fire Fan Matt Beauchamp will shock the nation by winning the Illinois secretary of state office.well... I guess I'm exagerating.My pick is that the Liberterian party will get 5% accross the board in Illinois and clinch ballot spots for the next election.Which wont be an upset, but it sure will upset the big two have done evrything in their power to keep the LP off the ballot.
45% would probably be enough for Davis to win, since the 3rd-party vote will be substantial. Last poll I saw had 8% going 3rd party, and some of the undecideds could make that even bigger. I can't completely count Simon out, but I wouldn't bet anything on him winning.
Well, I don't suppose TOO many people care, but Vermont's governors race is neck and neck, and some of the state's biggest papers have endorsed the Republican candidate Jim Douglas over current lieutenant governor Democrat Doug Racine. I think having a GOP governor in liberal Vermont would be something of an upset (Democrat Howard Dean is stepping down from the Governor's office he's held for 10 years to run for president, so there is no incumbent). There is also a fairly popular 3rd-party candidate (Progressive), and if nobody gets more than 50%, the winner will be voted upon by the legislature, which is currently controlled by the Republicans after the anti-civil union backlash two years ago. Vermont's only national election is for our sole US Representative, and Independent (Socialist) Bernie Sanders will win again in a shoo-in.
The MN Senate race may get all the headlines... ...but the Govenor's race is even tighter, with three candidates - Pawlenty (R), Moe (D), and Penny (I) in a statistical dead heat...and you all remember who we elected four years ago when that happened. It's going to be a loooooong night up here in the Land of 10,000 Campaign Promises come Tuesday...
Overall, Tuesday's going to be a long, long night for the elephants. They're going to get slaughtered in the Governor's races, lose a couple of Senate seats, and have an outside shot at losing the house as well. My upset pick is Kirk over Comryn in the Texas Senate.
I'm probably one of the biggest Democratic hometowners on the board, and I'll join you in that. (As long as you're buying.) I have no idea who I'm going to vote for in that race, but right now a write-in vote for Cobi Jones is looking pretty likely.
For the Dems, I'll take Kirk over Cronyn as well -- just seems like Kirk has all the momentum lately. For the GOP, I'll say Thune over Johnson in SD. (Perhaps that's not an upset to some Republicans, but any unseating of an incumbent is an upset.) It wouldn't be all that weird for VT to have a Republican governor when you consider that Vermont Republicans would be called Socialists in some other parts of the country.
So true. "Republican" Douglas is actually for things like gun control and a woman's right to choose, etc etc. The GOP gubernatorial candidate two years ago was a rabidly right-wing woman who lost in a landslide, even with the anti-Civil Union "Take Back Vermont" movement on her side. I think the GOP finally realized that just doesn't fly here. The only major difference between Douglas and the Democratic candidate is his fiscal policy, which includes a desire to revamp the radical statewide school funding system that's been in place in Vermont the past few years.
Love for that to happen, but I think the blue haired ladies are going to vote for the empty suit instead....
I think Kirk looks better outside of Texas, because, well, non-Texans know better than Texans when it comes to politics. We're better at everything else however.
Translation: Republicans have been clobbering the Democrats in Texas for several years. If a Democrat wins that senate seat I'd guess it's an indicator that the GOP is in for a beating nationally.
Maybe. But pollsters are looking at things like much heavier than expected early-voting turnout in places like the Valley and Travis County and coming to the conclusion that they should take a second look at that race. Man, I wish I still had Texas residency. Every vote's gonna count there.
Egad! The one thing that could make me vote for Davis, and you had to pull it out, didn't you? Hey! Vote early, often and everywhere! It’s the American way!
zverskiy yobar is Beauchamp really a fire fan? I usually don't vote 3rd party but I am voting Libertarian in the sec of state race and comptroller. My upset pick is I think Norm Coleman will win over Walter Mondale in Minnesota. I'm not so sure Jeb has his race locked up in Florida either so that could be interesting but I think its a little to risky saying Jeb will lose.
And are you're saying that they will vote en masse for Cronyn? Su-u-u-ure.... The Hispanic vote will be at least 80% Kirk. The only issue is whether or not enough of them vote. Turnout is everything in Texas, the GOP trying/hoping to keep it low and the Dems trying to boost it.
I'll agree about the governors races. Probably 7 governors seats will be picked up by the Dems. In Illinois the Democrat has a 10 point lead in the latest poll I saw. We haven't had a Democratic governor since 1977. I think the Senate is going to remain exactly the same except it will be 49-49-1 after Tuesday as in Louisiana the winner needs 50% of the vote. I don't think that person will get it and in a runoff in December I think the Incumbent Democrat will win which will make it 50-49-1 which is how it was before Wellstone died. I think the Republicans pick up 2 seats in the house though. I'm not an expert but I know enough to have somewhat intelligent predictions. We'll see Tuesday.
The part that makes Mr. Cam think that Cronyn has some unseen groundswell of Hispanic support. Sanchez is on the top of the Texas Dem ticket -- think that that many Hispanic voters will pass up the opportunity to try to get a Hispanic governor in TX? You think that they're going to vote for a split ticket? Cronyn's camp is hoping for 30% of the Hispanic vote. That's their dream number. 15-20% is a lot more realistic.
Originally posted by Fah Que Senate race was kinda close until that bastard died. And who says you don't deserve that card? As for Comryn/Kirk, I expect the overall turnout will be low-esp minorties-and Comryn & Perry win. Personally I will cast for Perry due to his management in tort reform and because he doesn't seem to be an idealogue. Sanchez hasn't shown me anything but negative adds (including the very funny, "why don't you just let us get on down the road" one) and has dropped 5x the money in campaigning. To quote a wise man," there's something fishy about a man that will pay more money for a job than it pays him back." I'll add to that, "for a job that has less power than the lt governor." $64 million dollars, whew! He has no solution for the budget shortfall or the insurance crisis but he's quick to blame Perry for them. Comryn(sp) is a dead fish, no personality or presense on the podium whatsoever. Kirk on the other hand is a probusiness moderate w/ more magnetism than a monorail. Meet the Press said that if he wins, he'll be on the fasttrack in the Senate. I'd love to see Davis lose in California. It's hard to believe such an incompetent putz could ever win reelection. I don't fancy Dom but I will sip on a miller if he's sacked. Another thing is that I don't want him running for president in 2k4 for much the same reason I cheered when Guliani dropped out in y2k.