Effects of Russian Invasion

This thread was always a potential landmine, but at least issues around Karasev and similar questions were referee-related.

It's ceased to be about that. I'm going to leave it open for now, because it seems like regular posters have legitimate curiosity around how FIFA and UEFA handle its competitions and that's definitely in the ballpark of what we discuss. But if it gets too contentious or overtly political, it's going to be closed. I have my own strong opinions--both about the war itself and how governing bodies should handle it--but I don't see too much good or value in debating them here, in this referee forum. There are other venues--both on this site and off it--where those discussions can occur.

I'd also note, with some level of curiosity @faiyez, that prior to yesterday you had two (2) total posts on this website since the conclusion of WC18. That's two posts in over four years. And you've never posted in this forum before, best I can tell from first glance. You have seven (7) posts on this thread in under 24 hours. That's your prerogative, I guess, but I also feel those are statistics worth sharing with the larger group here.

 

Looks like the IOC is about to make it official. Considering FIFA was pretty much using IOC guidelines we can probably see where this is going.

Now does Poland just advance or does the next ranked team in the group replace them?

https://olympics.com/ioc/news/ioc-e...russian-and-belarusian-athletes-and-officials

 

Would have been Slovakia. But Slovakia would have been unseeded, which means they should have an away game. Except Poland would have remained unseeded, too. So Turkey would be sitting there, rightfully asking how it doesn't have a home game and has to go away to Portugal instead.

But, of course, it's impossible to mess things around that much at this late stage. The question of whether or not Poland progresses by default or if Slovakia gets called up is an interesting one. I wonder how engaged the Slovakian FA is on all this right now.

 

Oh, and imagine where we'd be if Croatia hadn't beaten Russia on an 81st minute own goal on the final matchday. Russia would already be qualified for Qatar and that might be an even bigger mess for FIFA.

 

If things were this simple, they wouldn't be worth discussing.

First, a forfeit is usually 3-0 in international soccer (that's codified in UEFA; I think it's also codified at the FIFA level but unsure) so not sure where you get 2-0 from.

Second, the issue here isn't really about Slovakia at all (though again, any behind-the-scenes lobbying would be interesting). The issue is that Poland, by simple virtue of the draw, now only has to win one match when every other playoff team has to win two. So there's a competition integrity question. If this was some giant league with a bunch of fixtures, one walkover/forfeit is nothing. Or if it wasn't the World Cup. But we're talking about the difference of one match and the biggest event in our sport. The fairness issue isn't about Slovakia, it's about Sweden and the Czech Republic (and all the other playoff teams). It's a playoff where you're supposed to win two matches to qualify. RIght now, Poland only has to win one. And FIFA has a month to change that, so this isn't some truly last minute thing.

To use historical terms again, go back to EURO 1992 when Yugoslvaia qualified and then was banned. Denmark replaced them in the tournament (and then won the tournament). Would it have been "fairer" to just have a group of three at EURO 1992 and for all three teams to get a forfeit win over Yugoslavia?

Now, maybe FIFA does just advance Poland. Totally plausible decision as well. But to pretend or believe it's not an interesting question and a real decision that needs to be taken is wrong, because that ignores a lot of other stakeholders--most particularly the Swedes and Czechs (who, stood shoulder to shoulder with the Poles in getting the ball rolling on this).

EDIT to say there's also sponsorship and television revenue on the table. These are BIG playoff matches. You can have no game or you can have Poland play someone. Which do you prefer if you're FIFA?

 

https://www.bbc.com/sport/athletics/60560567

Football's governing body Fifa is set to suspend Russia until further notice as the International Olympic Committee recommends that Russian and Belarusian athletes and officials are banned from participating in any organised international competitions.

 

I was thinking about this and agree its fairest. But, finding that open date...? Not sure it can be done. You're talking about some big name players needing to miss club matches unless you move it to June. And, if you move it to June, it doesn't really feel like a 3-match tournament. There's also the issue of the third match being irrelevant if one team wins the first two games--do you still play it?

 

I think there's a nuance between Russia being disqualified and ejected from the tournament versus being banned from future matches. It's functionally the same, but the chosen verbiage/action determines whether you only look forward or if you look back to see who could take Russia's place in this match.

But again, to be clear I think UEFA and FIFA will just look to engineer the best plausible scenario that doesn't screw over the Swedes and Czechs. Not exactly sure what that is. And I also agree with @allan_park that if everyone just acts fast, the Swedes and Czechs might not care at all given overall sentiment and pulic attention deservedly being elsewhere.