that wasn't my question tex. i'm not talking about what supporters groups think about who is the mvp. i'm talking about who brings the casual fan into the seats. BUTTS IN SEATS. if you asked united supporters groups about the most important player, etc., to a man they would say Moreno. if you ask the casual fan who comes to games who they are most excited to see and they would say Adu. supporters groups come to games regardless. the difference is made up from people who come to watch exciting players play. EJ is more important to attendance at Dallas than O'Brien.
I meant the agent has to consider the future, not MLS. Perhaps his agent will advise him to sign the contract and take the raise. Perhaps EJ will say, "F that, I'm wanna go to Europe next year". You really don't know. All I know is that if I'm a player who has ambitions of going to Europe I'm wanting less years in my contract, not more. Okay...I disagree. But logically this isn't how it works. Teams, yes even big ass teams in Europe, work on budgets. Money from bucket A is tranferable to bucket B. I'm willing to pay more of a salary for a player available on a free then I am for a player for whom I have to pay a hefty transfer fee. And I know it really isn't that simple, but in the end it works out that way. Consider it this way.....value for your acquisition dollars. Two players....equal in every way....one is available on a free, one has two years left on his contract. I can acquire the first a whole lot less expensively then I can the second. Hence, I don't mind offering a bit more salary wise to the first. Hence, in general, players on frees are sought after more. Hence, they can command more in salary, generally.
Did you read my whole post or just the first sentence? I think I answered your question later on in my post. But I will do so again. I think its a wash since neither player is known by anyone who isn't already a fan. Meanwhile Ronnie O should be around for a few years, and EJ should be leaving pretty soon. From a long term persepective you have to look at O'Brien.
Well, we will just have to disagree on this point, Rommul. Again, you make an educated estimate on to what he is worth in open market. On this thread most of those that disagree with me talk about re-signing EJ because he will be worth more. And when they post that point you have to assume that MLS would be attatch a projected tranfer fee amount for EJ, otherwise how would they know if they are paying him too much. You have to make assumptions when doing business, that is how it works. Obviously you don't agree and that's fine.
Well you don't know what he wants. Neither do I. If he gets offered a hefty raise knowing MLS wants to sell him anyway. It is very likly he will sign. That is not the way things work. If you can't affor to pay a player you won't try to buys him. You are talking about closed systems where players don't have choices and there is only one team chasing him. Players don't accept lower wages because teams spend alot of money on them. That is just not they way things work in an open system. You are free to disagree but you are wrong. You are talking about theory not reality. With few exceptions players who are on frees are players few people want which is why they are available on frees in the first place. The only high profile player who left on a free this years is Davids and that becuase he was pissed at Juve and refused to have them make any money off him. Valuable players are sold they are not allowed to leave on frees.
What they pay him has little to do with what fee they can get and almost everything to do with what value he brings to his team. You keep talking about his salary as if they won't get anything for him unless he is sold. Very few players in this world are overpaid and by the time their contracts are up the team has already gotten their moneys worth. I keep telling you that the way you choose to calculate opportunity costs is wrong. You can't just guess at numbers and use them to see what a property is worth. You say buisnesses make assumptions all the time but they don't do it the way you say. They make assumptions concerning future earnings. They don't make assumptions about past possible earning to decide the value of what they have. That makes no sense. Revenue you never generated is not relevant in that way. The only way you theory works is if some team comes in and offers MLS 1 million for him they turn them down and then they sell him for x dollars later. Then the idea of opportunity cost comes into play (ie when you have known numbers). It is about what you forego.
AND This is why I have been saying that MLS will be one of the best leagues in the world sooner rather than later (10-15 years). The US will have to do very well in the next 2 World Cups for our players to finally get the respect they deserve. That's TEN YEARS! If I am EJ I am saying: "Landon was one thing, but if they can put BEAS to the bench... I dunno, maybe I should take the 300k and stay home" Each year more and more players will be good enough to go overseas. But we live in the coolest country in the world. There is no real good reason to leave unless something FANTASTIC is waiting for you. If you want to see comp for spots, just wait a few years. Every top American and CONCACAF player will be in MLS fighting for max ~250 spots. There will be more and BETTER Landon Donovans, Eddie Popes and Chris Armas' who say "I think I will stay home thanks very much" Freddy Adu and Eddie Gaven are perfect examples. Right now they have an inside track into the National team. And they earn enough cake to buy what they want in this country (Maybe not Gaven yet?). Let's say they leave the country and end up in a weird situation, getting them dropped from the team in favor of some homebound youngster a year or so younger who's burning up the league - what then? Would you think they are willing to risk their place in the USMNT for the Real Madrid bench? I dunno... Or here is another look at it. In ten years the kids playing against my son will be 20-21 years old. I have coached current MLS and USMNT players as youth. I know what they look like at 9 and 10. There are 5 attacking players in Chicago area who are at the level and with the right clubs right now . Of those five, say 2 make it. There are at least 2 promising Chicago area attacking prospects at every age group between his U10 and Gaven's at U18. That is 16 top quality prospects in the system! Guess what? In ten years, they - at 20/21 - will STILL be in competition for spots with DMB and Landon who will only be 32 years old!!! The emergence of the US as a quality soccer playing nation NECESSITATES the advent of a 5th major soccer league. My belief is that MLS will be it. Our talent influx over the next ten years will grow beyond the foriegn sides' learning curve and ability to take them. And you will see more and more Landons who say "Just gimme the cash, the play is good enough here" After a while, they will be right. NL
I read your entire post the first time, and you are speaking as a supporter, not a fan. I am not a fan of Dallas. As someone who is sitting in the middle of DC right now, if I were in Dallas on business and thinking about going to a game while there, I would be much less likely to go if EJ wasn't playing. it wouldn't make a difference to me if Ronnie was playing. Although Ronnie is a supporters favorite, EJ is going to bring more of the casual fan to the game because of some of his pure physical gifts. People come to see something spectacular. the casual fan couldn't care less if Ronnie O stays longer. that's something that die-hards like you and I care about. the casual fan wants to see the guy who is most exciting to watch TODAY. there is no wash at all. Again, if you really believed that EJ doesn't make much of a difference, which you keep trying to convince us he doesn't, you wouldn't be here arguing about it. Right now, he IS the cornerstone marketing piece of FC Dallas and their new home. O'Brien is an important player who only the diehards know or care about.
Rommul, If I went to my boss and asked to spend money on something and DIDN'T give him the alternative scenarios I wouldn't be working there for much longer. Its not a past missed revenue right now, when this decision has to be made. They know if he isn't re-signed then they will attempt to sell him next season, before he gets taken for nothing. They know also know they won't sell him for less then X amount (I'm guessing 500,000 or so). Even if they just use THAT number.....that's doing an opportunity cost analysis. Sheesh, its not like I'm talking about differential equations here.
Casual fans don't know EITHER guy. Don't you realize that. You asked who would be better at getting new fans. New fans never heard of either of them. Do you really believe Joe Suburban has heard of EJ? Unless they are reading big soccer or Steve Davis in the DMN they've never heard of him...period. And more importantly......IT DOESN"T MATTER, EJ IS GONE REGARDLESS. That was pretty much the assumption we've been working with this entire discussion.
Where do you think NEW fans come from tex??!! do they magically appear? no, they are casual fans who turn on the tv or show up to a game or two and get hooked. who are they more likely to have that reaction to ......... O'Brien or EJ? EJ, obviously. You keep acting like the only people who are ever going to watch soccer games are the ones who are already buying tickets. that's just plain wrong. as others have stated, there are plenty of soccer fans who don't go to games for the mere fact that they don't see the quality on the field that they think is necessary for them to spend their dollars. others are just now being exposed to the game. these are the casual fans. you're being very cryptic about this, as if you and I are in some little club of fans, and we're not going to allow anyone else to join.
Oh my....new fans come from all different places. For FC Dallas they will most likely come from youth soccer clubs who are marketed to by the FO. They will come back for all kinds of reasons. Not just EJ, not just ROB, but because they like the game itself. When I started going, EJ wasn't playing, but I came back. Regardless, if you asked ALL fans who they enjoyed the most I'm not convinced they would overwhelmingly say EJ. And if you look at FC Dallas marketing Gibbs and O'Brien appear in more ads and billboards then EJ does.....so obviously the FO doesn't agree with you either.
And as we can see over the past several years, the Dallas FO has done such a WONDERFUL job of correctly marketing the team. The fact that they are marketing those 2 instead of EJ is just about proof positive that i'm right on this. I wear like a badge of honor, the fact that I and the Dallas FO are in complete disagreement (if we in fact are).
Okay.....you got me there But seriously, I think you are overestimating EJ's appeal to the common fan by a bit. And again, it doesn't take away my point that it really doesn't matter since we have to assume that EJ will be gone in a year or two and O'Brien is here for the long term. Hence, keeping O'Brien is important. Not to even consider the fact that a winning team will attract more fans then either individual will, and O'Brien is essential to the team's success on the field. Basically, even though you won't concede this point, FC Dallas would not forego re-signing O'Brien so the MLS can re-sign EJ just so they 'might' squeeze more of a transfer fee out of someone.
But that is not the point you were making. You were saying that if he extends his contract and gets sold 1 year later for 2 million we need to subtract what MLs might have gotten if he didn't extend to see the real benefit to MLS as well as subtract his salary. According to your ananlysis MLS would make close to nothing (break even). This is clearly wrong because: 1. His salary will be recouped by the fact that he is playing for the league and earning them money by contributing to a team that brings in revenue. 2. He is not an object. It not like I have 200 dollars and decide whether to buy a computer or pay off my credit cards. His value is not guaranteed. They can choose not to extend him and don't give him a raise, he sulks plays half heartedly gets hurt and when his contract ends in 06 he is still on the injured list. or They can extend him, he is motivated he tears it up we win the world cup and he gets sold for 15 million. or They can choose not to extend him and don't give him a raise, he tears it up and gets sold after 06 for 5 million. or They can extend him, he gets lazy gets hurt and when his contract ends in 06 he is still on the injured list. or...... There are a million and one possibilities. That is why selling players is different from choosing between build a housing project or building a hospital. The opportunity costs are definate in one instance and in your example they are simply pie in the sky economics. You can't just sit down and make up numbers and call them an opportunity cost since you don't know if anyone is willing to pay that and hence you don't know if you have foregone anything. The bottom line is until someone makes an offer no one knows that is the difference.
You say his salary is recouped because he is playing for the league, but if they don't give him an extension he WILL STILL BE PLAYING FOR THE LEAGUE. This isn't very difficult and there really aren't that many scenarios. Perhaps if I break it down for you in a more detailed fashion you will understand. Scenario 1. EJ is not re-signed to an extension. He continues to play under the terms of his current contract, the first of two option years. His salary is 85,000. At the end of the 2005 season we will attempt to sell him for no less then x amount (for the purposes of this example, lets say $500,000). If no one is willing to buy him for AT LEAST that amount we will attempt to extend his contract. Scenario 2. We extend EJ's contract through the 2008 season. The two option years at 85,000 are renegotiated to a much higher amount. Commiserate with someone who just finished the year tied for the Golden Boot. So we can assume at least 200,000, if not higher, plus 15% of any future transfer fee. EJ plays both the 2005 and 2006 season, which will allow him to showcase himself in the 2006 WC. After the WC (aug transfer window) or at the end of the 2006 MLS season (January window) we will attempt to sell him. We have to assume that his transfer fee will be higher because he has 2 years left on his contract, and he has had additional years of good play and a positive WC06 peformance. So, lets figure we will be able to sell him for 2,000,000. Scenario 1. EJ costs us 85,000 and gets us at least 500,000 (otherwise we wouldn't sell him) Scenario 2. EJ costs us 400,000 and gets us (85% of 2,000,000) 1,700,000. In this case it would make sense to extend the contract. Yes, you can't guarantee 2 mil at the end of 2006. Yes, you can't guarantee $500,000 at the end of 2005. But at this point, the point in which you need to make a decision regarding his contract extension, you have to use estimates. You know how much Convey, DMB, McBride went for. You know how much young, talented strikers go for. You know how much you are willing to let him go for. With that information you can make a decision. Personally, I don't think there is THAT much to gain from extending his contract and paying him more for the next two seasons. I don't think you will get 2 mil for him in 2 years, and I don't think he would sign for less then $250,000 a year. So there you go. That's my opinion, and nothing else. I guess we will find out eventually.
Nice try but that isn't the point being discussed. Your point is that his salary shouyd be deducted from whatever fee they get for him to get the real value to the league and that is plainly false. Is that right? So there are only two scenarios? Only two thinsg that can happen to the EJ situation over the next two years over the next two years? There are no ther possiblities? Nothing else can happen in the next two years? Well. In the face of such insurmountable logic this must the point at which I admit defeat.
No....obviously more things 'could' happen. But faced with the decision on whether or not to extend his contract these would the two most likely scenarios that would be discussed. I guess they should discuss the scenario of Space Aliens descending upon the Earth in late 2005 and converting us all to molecular goo?? In that case I would say don't extend the contract since EJ will be goo by the time his contract runs out and we all know that goo can't play soccer......at least not good enough to warrant a transfer to AC Nebulous
Well I seem to have come up with about four scenarios that are more likely than space aliens but if you feel the need to ignore them thats okay.
So, you understand my point better then I do....is that your claim here. I believe you posted something about how the value of his salary increase would be recouped since he would be playing in the league and hence increasing the value of the league...or some such nonsense. But the thing is, he will be playing in the league next season regardless of whether or not the league extends his current deal. So, either you pay him $85,000 to play next year or you pay him more and hope for a bigger transfer fee later. Either way, his value to next season to the league is the same whether or not you redo his deal. See what I mean, I was just countering some bad logic you threw out there.
OH...you mean these possibilities...the ones where you try to predict how he will psychologically react to a new contract and then attatch ridiculously fictious numbers to his worth.....the same thing you attacked me for earlier. So which is it, can you or can't you assume a future transfer fee....I thought that was a big "no no" in your world.
At least be respectful enough to read and repeat what I said not what you want to hear. Your point that his salary should be deducted from his transfer fee is moot since he will work off his salary regardless and the league will get the value of his salary before he is even transfered. No you were ignoring you own bad logic and trying to ascribe bad logic to me by attributing statements to me that I never made. I am disputing your opportunity cost theory which is clearly false. Bearing in mind the fcat that you are incapable of reading seeing what I say and only what you want to see I don't see much point in continuing this discussion.