Ecuador- WC Qualifiers BRAZIL 2014/Eliminatorias

If we don't put Guauga in there, then it's Achilier. No one else will fill that void. Achilier right now as well as the rest of our guys in defense (excluding Ayovi) aren't having a good moment at club level or NT. Guagua is decent in D.Quito and didn't do bad in the last two games. It sucks we have to depend on him but I think for now Achilier is going through a bajon and i'd rather not see him start. We don't have any defenders that are ready to start a Qualifier besides mayyyybe Corozo who can also play as a center back, but i wouldn't risk him there. I'd say Corozo should compete for a spot w/ Paredes and Walter for now. I feel like although he does really well as a center back in Liga, his natural position as a right or left back is where he excels the most. But anywhere you put him he'll perform well regardless. He's the most complete defender we have coming up in the country.

Truth is Campos came back from that long injury he had at the beginning of August and then he got injured again b/c he came back too soon. Whether he plays this next month or not in BSC isn't the issue. You want a player that's playing 90 minutes every weekend at a high level. Campos won't be ready in 3 weeks to play such a crucial match where he'll have to give it 150%. I can guarantee you that. And if Rueda were dumb enough to call him up or even start him, you're going to be cursing at him left and right. IMO, the roster won't change. I have a feeling Guerron might be excluded. I don't know why, but i just get that feeling that Guerron will be excluded and Fidel or Marlon will take his spot. Besides that I don't see any changes being made. IMO it's not fair to Guerron, but Fidel and marlon IMO are players who can also deserve a spot on the NT. I also think mayyybe Narciso get's excluded. That's the only way to get Fidel and Marlon on the team. I know Rueda likes Marlon. We'll eventually see Marlon on the NT a lot more consistently, especially if he does well in Monterrey.

Bone from El nacional is the same Bone from Liga last year who was straight garbage. If you want to think about players who may be ready to get the NT experience (but not as starters from the get go) i'd go for Luis Caicedo 21 year old center back from Indep., Mario Pieneida 21 yr old right back from Indep., Andres Mendoza 23 yr old center back from U. Catolica. I'm keeping my eye on that kid Robert Arboleda, 21 yr old center back from Liga de Loja who started off a good Segunda Etapa w/ Aguinaga. Besides that I think John Narvaez from Emelec is definitely a kid that can be worked on. He's had a few screw ups in Emelec, but overall i'd say his performances are good. I've actually followed Roosevelt Oyola the last month and since Soler came to BSC, Oyola has won his starting spot and is performing better every weekend. This weekend he had several moments in the game where he looked like the 2012 Roosevelt Oyola. The 2012 Oyola was definitely a candidate to take Walter's spot on the NT. Hopefully he continues improving. As far as Cristian Ramirez he can be an option to include after the Qualifier (between the end of Qualifiers and the WC)...and same goes for Roosevelt. Most of these guys I named I'd include after the Qualifiers are over. They aren't meant to be immediately used on the NT, and especially not start. Gotta bring them in slowly like Rueda is doing with Corozo. Or else we'll eat sh*t vs. Uruguay.

you're line up is ultra aggressive. Could work but the moment Uruguay steals a ball from us on the counter attack, we'll only have Castillo covering the mid and you better hope Paredes or Ayovi aren't all the way on the other side of the field b/c then it's Erazo, Guagua, Castillo vs. Suarez, Cavani and company. Montero and Valencia would have to play a bit further back and closer to Castillo helping him w/ recovering. I can see Valencia adapting to this, but Montero hmmmm a bit tough. I think Montero would be the sacrificial lamb in this line up. That's the issue though. It's tough playing Fidel, Montero, Valencia AND Arroyo at the same time. And on top of that Caicedo. And take note that Ayovi and Paredes also advance up the field. In reality that would leave you with 2 center backs and Segundo Castillo playing straight defense. Cant' defend with 3 on every counter attack. especially not with Uruguay. When we attack everything may seem beautiful, but when they get the ball on a counter we'll be on our knees saying our prayers.

 

I just heard an interview Rueda had and it looks like Fidel won't be called up. ONLY if Montero, Rojas, or Arroyo get injured will Fidel make the cut. I think Rueda doesn't plan on ever utilizing Fidel as a forward w/ Caicedo. So we're going to have to struggle w/ what we have. And even if Montero's injury doesn't permit him to make it to the final game of the qualifiers, Fidel still won't play i bet. Joao and Michael have been with the team longer so there's no doubt they'll get the chance over Fidel.

Rueda's statement about Fidel:
"He sido muy claro. Fidel juega en una posición en la que está Joao Rojas y Jefferson Montero, también en la que está Michael Arroyo. Han habido 3 y 4 hombres en la misma posición. Y en el caso de Michael y de Joao con la bondad de ser más polivalentes que Fidel, que sólo juega en esa posición. Por eso hay una mejor expectativa", indicó, añadiendo que sobre Martínez "Se tiene consideración por sus características futbolísticas y su calidad humana".

That to me makes it clear also that Michael Arroyo also won't ever be used like Soler is using him in Barcelona as an enlace. The biggest mystery right now is if Narciso will be called up for the game vs. Uruguay. I'd like to know who would fill in for him since he's obviously underperforming at the moment in his club team which means Rueda might not count on him. All I can think of is Marlon and Juan Anangono. But Fidel.....FORGET IT! I doubt he's on the list unless he's forced into it due to some other player's injury. and will we see Guerron again? Quite a mystery at this point.

 

the thing is Mexico is always going to be the first choice like you said....both parties get $$- the club and the player. The player gets a good salary and the club profits off the transfer. When it comes to European teams- #1 they aren't going to offer anywhere near what a mexican team offers unless they are a club w/ lots of money and the player is of SERIOUS and i mean SERIOUS interest. Otherwise, they'll look elsewhere b/c the record of ecuas successfully doing well abroad in Europe isn't the best. So they (the europeans) know they are taking a risk. To them, it's a gamble putting money in for one of our guys. #2 If our guys don't leave before the age of 21, they most likely won't end up in Europe now a days. It's either they get picked up really young or forget it, they'll end up in Mexico. And once you set foot in Mexico, you gotta be as good or even better than Jeff Montero to impress. And let's just say that at this point, not even that is enough.....and let me add that Montero actually has been successful in Spain, so IMO his options should be greater to make a return...yet he's still where?? IN MEXICO w/ a price tag of $9 million. Who has the money to pick him up ? A top 5 club. and up to now I haven't heard of any that are after him.

 

The reason Colon isn't on the NT is b/c his level has dropped a bit and he isn't shining like he was last semester. He's doing well, but not amazing. Ramirez, Cevallos- these two guys need to wait a bit. I'd give it a try with Ramirez after the Qualifier is over and Cevallos still has a long way to go before being even considered. Marcos Caicedo needs to be consistent in EMelec. Or leave Emelec and go out to Mexico. I think that will do him good. Luis Caicedo, John Narvaez, Andres Mendoza, Junior Sornoza...these are all guys to include after the Qualifiers in a few friendlies assuming they continue performing well at club level. Some of these guys may not even be starting a few months from now or a year from now so who knows what will happen. But from the guys you mentioned it seems like all of them are very important players who for the most part are/have been consistent. Carlos Gruezo is another player to keep in mind after this Qualifier. Lots of these names are players who could be a part of our NT for the next qualifier and be very significant.

 

Marcos Caicedo is a good player. Don't get me wrong. Cuando esta en racha, no one can stop him. He's a really tough player to stop b/c he has a load of strength and explosiveness. Not the best ball control (sometime he gets out of hand) but he can work his way through a defense really well....and the good thing is he scores. Those are the things I like about him. He has a great long shot, centers are good, and he can head well.

The reason I say Marcos Caicedo is inconsistent is because there have been 4 or more coaches in the past few years in Emelec (sampaoli, turco assad, Perrone, Fleitas, and now Quintero who's been there almost a year and a half now) and Caicedo still hasn't consolidated himself fully with any of the coaches. Caicedo and Ener Valencia have MOMENTS in a season donde se prenden, but once that's over they turn into average players and they become predictable. It's happened for years now. It's become repetitive everyyyyy season. It's not the coaches, it's the players (Caicedo and Ener) in this case. Right now Ener Valencia is having his moment again. I think it's the second time in the season where he's been performing well. Once that's over, he'll be back to Ener Valencia the player who is ok but isn't performing at 100%. Let's hope joining the NT now did him well and motivated him.

Like I said, great players...but they just need that final push. An entire good season where they can finally consolidate themselves. Like Junior Sornoza for example. Now that kid is ready for something greater next year. He's been working his ass off and is the type of striker that would play well with Felipe. Junior plays right behind the striker and is really great w/ the ball at his feet. We need someone like him to go play in Brazil. We are lacking that type of player.

 

What did I tell you? and some of you were thinking Jairo Campos was going to be ok for the Qualifier. There's 2 weeks left. Think he'll make it? hell no. Not playing like that. What we have to admit right now is that the struggle is real and all our defense is going through a bajon right now (besides Walter Ayovi who's still the same Ayovi as always). We gotta wait til these guys brush their shoulders off at the end of the season and press the reset button for 2014 b/c by the looks of it this year just wasn't their year. It can happen to the best of us. Doesn't mean we gotta get rid of all of them. Right now we gotta be patient and deal w/ what we have. And of course why not be open to including more new faces and trying them out after the Qualifier is over, it won't hurt us. I'm thinking we gotta add more to our defense as opposed to get rid of what we have.

 

I liked this idea. but I always take back a few steps because I get that feelin that Montero is going to be just as a effective as Rojas was up front with Caicedo...in other words very little. It just wouldn't work out the way we would picture it to work out in our minds. I'd leave Montero where he's at. Right now Montero is easily the most devastating winger there is in the Americas. That's what makes it very difficult at this point to move him from where he usually plays because he is causing major havoc for our opponent ya as a left winger right now. I think that's why Rueda hasn't made that swop. He has the same doubts. it's too risky right now to move Montero out of where he's usually at. Maybe after qualifiers are over to give it a try, but now I wouldn't do it.

Like I said, right NOW we gotta go with what we know and what we have. it's tough to experiment this late and when everything is at stake. The only experiments worth taking are Marlon, Fidel, Guerron, or Sornoza up front with Caicedo but besides that we gotta go with what we have. But if we are speaking about natural positions and who's going to feel the most comfortable with Caicedo everything points towards Sornoza right now because he is of the very few players in the country that can play behind a striker, he scores and assists a lot, and he has great dribbling and ball control. Fidel is great. don't know if we can play well behind Caicedo, but definitely can do damage playing next to him and linking with Montero and Walter as well as with Antonio and/or Ibarra. With Guerron it can be similar just at a faster rate. But I think we'd keep more ball possession with Fidel or Sornoza. Then with Marlon you got a #9 which means either Caicedo drops back and does the dirty work or we play doble punta and rely heavily on the wings (like we currently are doing unsuccessfully).

 

with a 4-2-3-1:

Dominguez; paredes, Guagua, Erazo, Ayovi; Castillo(Valencia), Noboa; Valencia(Ibarra), Arroyo (Sornoza, Mendez), Montero; Caicedo

with arroyo, Mendez or Sornoza playing behind Felipe.

4-4-2
Dominguez; Paredes, Guagua, Erazo, Ayovi; Valencia, Noboa, Castillo, Montero; Martinez (Sornoza), Caicedo

 

Just as i assumed...Guerron and Narciso were the two guys who weren't gonna make it. And Fidel and Sornoza replaced them. I read Rueda's mind correctly.

I am a bit surprised that Arroyo isn't on the list as well as Pedro Quinonez. I guess Rueda liked Ener in his first performance with the NT and like Alex Bolanos more than Pedro Quinonez. I think Arroyo is very important especially since he is lately developing experience playing in the middle. That's what we need. Oh well, let's hope for the best. This list is as good as it gets besides Arroyo not being there.

Now, we can talk about the line up.