Ecuador NT (Post-World Cup)

For purely "football related" issues.

Not good.

Though I am still of the opinion that we MIGHT need to expect that Beccacece does not give him the nod in the 26 man squad.

In other news, does anyone know if the FEF has a deadline date to announce the squad? Ivory Coast did it. We await the others in our group, too.

Lastly, Caicedo had a somewhat muted game today, but the same can be said of the entire squad. They looked very cautious and lacked any vision for the entirety of the first half. Chelsea drops another final, and Man City looked VERY beatable.

 

I trust Nilson can rise to the occasion. Plus, his issue is not a mentality gap or delusions of grandeur. His irregular back-half of the season is due to injuries and he will do better at Sunderland with a proper pre-season under his belt. He plays well on the NT and we have yet to unlock his best. Many pundits say he can be the dark horse revelation for the NT.

Kendry, on the other hand- not so much. The early career trajectory doesn't lean positive, and while there's still plenty of time for him to turn it around, I don't think he's working toward that objective. For every 1 football story I see, there's a few gossip threads that also get reported either in Argentina or Ecuador. He really needs to tighten up and just focus on football if he's actually serious about ascending to the next level. Hopefully not making the squad will serve him well down the road. Yes, this hurts his development, and it definitely hurts his feelings. More importantly, it's professionally embarrassing to get left out when you're one of the "stars". The biggest lessons he can internalize (hopefully): nothing is given and nothing lasts forever.

If he can't convince his coach at River to justify getting minutes, he's cooked. He'll leave River and go to yet ANOTHER club. Chelsea under Xabi will be a disciplined machine, and I don't see Kendry coming back. He will be sold on discount after 1 more loan spell and they'll try to recoup something on the 20M investment they made.

 

Very accurate statement.

Kendry is young and he has a long way to go. I'm not writing him off forever, but for the time being I think it's best to leave him reflecting on the "what could have been" rather than "entitlement" call-ups. He's already falling behind some of his peers and nothing short of a radical turnaround will allow him to go back to Europe's big clubs/leagues.

The problem is that his path no longer seems like a staircase pointing upward, but rather a plateau or even a slide going down. His path was charted, but his extracurriculars were clearly more important.

Endrick went the opposite path. Landed at Madrid at 18 y/o, fizzled out (understandable considering his age and the coaching shake ups and his own inexperience), but he went to Lyon (loan) and absolutely turned up. Now he's back in contention for NT consideration and will likely get recalled by Madrid, too.

To me, this is an apples to apples comparison. They're from Latam's "top 10" prospects list when they went to Europe. Both of these kids are from the same export year to Europe and the outcomes could not have been more distinct. One guy got loaned out twice and is now back on our home continent while the other is on his way back to the "Camelot" of footy.

Another alumni from that camp: Estevao was good enough to get the nod and start at Chelsea or even make noticeable contributions off the bench...same export year, but he was sidelined by injuries late in the season.

Kendry's ascent and recent professional lapses need to be on every Ecuadorian academy's lesson plans for how to work with these kids. There is zero patience in Europe. Big money transfers = massive expectations and ROI hopes.

 

Ecuador's academy system has produced undeniable wins. Caicedo, Hincapié, Pacho, and Ordóñez are marquee exports, and even Plata (who tends to leave clubs unceremoniously) generates strong ROI for IDV through development windfall clauses on his multi-club transfers. The model works, and Kendry's signing validated it: the most expensive youth deal in Ecuadorian history, opening the door for similarly large contracts for untested minors like the twins now at Arsenal.

But Kendry is now a cautionary tale, not a success story, and the warning signs were visible before he ever left.

The strip club visit in New York as a minor, public vaping on Instagram, documented partying: none of it was hidden. These weren't just tabloid noise; they were indicators of a kid who hadn't developed the mental framework to handle elite-level scrutiny, pressure, and sudden access to money. That's not unique to Kendry. Kaviedes, Angulo, Arboleda, and Guerrón walked similar paths. The through-line isn't talent; it's the absence of any serious off-pitch developmental infrastructure.

Ecuadorian clubs celebrate when their players boom, but they absorb the long-term reputational and financial damage when they bust. If Kendry fizzles, Chelsea loses millions and simply moves on. The downstream effect lands on the next Ecuadorian kid trying to negotiate a contract, where clubs will cite risk, cite precedent, and drive terms down. One bad egg doesn't just spoil Kendry's deal; it affects the entire market valuation of Ecuadorian youth talent.

The fix is straightforward, even if undervalued: Liga, BSC, Emelec, IDV, and others need to invest in the non-physical side of their academies. Mental resilience, media literacy, financial education, family dynamics. These aren't soft add-ons; they're triage systems for identifying which kids are actually equipped to cross the pond and perform under pressure. The physical talent gets you the contract. Everything else determines whether you keep it.

The stakes compound quickly, and it works like academic tracking. Miss the honors track in 8th grade and you spend high school in remedial classes, two years behind peers who are already accumulating the credentials that unlock elite opportunities. Most kids never realize the ceiling was set that early. For footballers, the window is even narrower. Kendry can still turn it around, but elite clubs won't wait indefinitely. The realistic trajectory right now isn't Chelsea's first team; it's River to another Argentine loan, then Brazil, then maybe Mexico. He's affordable and high-upside for someone willing to absorb the risk, but if this window closes, we're looking at a journeyman career, not a transformational one. Remember, his salary is set on "rookie"-like terms, so there are bigger LATAM and smaller European clubs who can still pay the wages to keep Chelsea less "in the red".

The academy model will keep churning out talent because the math demands it, and Ecuador will absolutely be hot target for the next 4 years. Most will bust, a few will soar, and many will coast (which is still good in retrospect). That's the business. But clubs that invest in the whole player, not just the footballer, will see a meaningfully better hit rate. Right now, that investment isn't happening at scale, and Kendry is the price of that gap. IDV's asking price will absolutely take a hit if he can't break the downward spiral.

 

Timely update: https://www.futbolecuador.com/site/...-de-america-en-confiar-en-sus-canteras/168433

Pese al éxito de algunos proyectos como el de IDV, el estudio revela que la mayoría de clubes prefieren la experiencia sobre el talento emergente

Aunque es verdad que hay prioridades en los clubes, también se debe mirar hacia las canteras para descubrir nuevos talentos. Es lo que arroja un reciente estudio del Observatorio CIES, con números nada alentadores para el fútbol ecuatoriano en cuanto a la promoción de sus juveniles.

Catalogada habitualmente entre las ligas más importantes de América, la LigaPro ocupa actualmente el noveno lugar en la región, situándose como la penúltima en otorgar un porcentaje de minutos efectivos de juego a futbolistas menores o iguales a los 21 años de edad.

Esta es una responsabilidad directa de los clubes de la Serie A, al brindar apenas un 7.2% de participación a sus jóvenes promesas en comparación con otros torneos del continente. En las canteras reside la posibilidad real de generar ventas futuras y sostenibilidad económica; sin embargo, salvo el caso de Independiente del Valle y algún otro elenco puntual, los demás parecen haber perdido el año en este rubro tan vital para el desarrollo del fútbol nacional.

It's an uphill battle for the U21s anywhere in LATAM. A "veteran" will take your spot if you cannot perform when given the chance. They're all held to very high standards.

 

Hincapie went viral! LOL

I'm not sure what happens next for him at Arsenal. As you mentioned, Hincapie doesn't get the start over Calafiori unless there's an injury. That's a direct challenger with a solid skill set to keep competing assuming he can stay healthy. I guess the only plausible outcome is that Calafiori's track record keeps constant and injuries persist. It seems likely (unfortunately for him). Here's the stats based on transfermarkt (2018/19-2025/26 to date):

Injury (days missed): 820
Games missed: 137
Reported injuries: 24

Across 8 seasons, the averages are:

102.5 days missed per season
17.125 games missed per season
3 injuries per season

This includes his seasons as a youth/juvenile player, though. The worst injury seems to be when he was very young (16) and it was basically a season ending one.

If we look at 21/22-present (both Hincapie and Calafiori) so it's an apples to apples comparison, here's the stats:

Calafiori:
81 days missed per season (486 total days missed)
3.66 injuries per season (22 injuries reported)
15.8 games missed per season (95 games missed)

Hincapie:
19.66 days missed per season (118 total days missed)
1 injury per season (6 reported)
2.83 games missed per season (17 games missed)

Durability is a MAJOR consideration here, and I think because of this, Hincapie can and should get minutes at Arsenal more than we might assume.The stats don't lie.

Arsenal plays 4 tournaments next year and I'd venture to assume that time is split between both players in the PL (Hincapie as a sub). Calafiori will probably take the bulk of the CL reins (if healthy) while Hincapie gets FA Cup and Carabao consideration.

Arsenal is obligated to sign Hincapie after that whole loan/sale deal with Leverkusen to avoid FFP regulatory hits this season. It's a 5 year deal. If Calafiori sees another injury plagued season, expect him to get shipped off at the end of the 26/27 season. Nobody would want to risk carrying a recurring liability in a market where ROI is measured in minutes per game/consistency after 8 seasons of recurring issues.

Piero should use the post-WC offseason to keep training and focusing on staying super competitive to fight for that starting spot...he certainly has the talent. Now he just needs to sharpen other tools in his toolshed of skill sets.

 

The Patrick Mercado transfer to Sevilla is officially canceled.

Seems like the risk of taking on a player fresh into recovery from an ACL tear was too much to handle. Understandable. He will recover, get playing time with IDV and hopefully regain form to shop the market again at the end of next season.

For now, despite the morale hit, he needs to focus on recovery and IDV will continue supporting him on that journey.