Okay, it's way too premature to tell for sure (the only sure way to predict how teams will finish is to wait for the MLS Cup!). But here's my take on the teams in the East and how they'll do. And Mods, I know an argument could be made that this belongs in the MLS Forum. But my thinking is that as the season gets closer, DCU fans are increasingly looking at moves by other teams (Nowak retirement, Llamosa leaving, Rosas to SoS) and wondering "how does this affect DCU? How do we stack up?" Thus, I put it in this Forum. Depth. That's the over-riding issue. I think we (at DCU) saw how much of an issue that was last year. Yes, the stars (Moreno, et. al.) didn't step up and perform like stars, but even if they had, how good would the team have been last year. Thus, I think the critical issue to look at for MLS this year (in a season that is longer, which people may think decreases fixture congestion but actually contributes to it) and has a ton of international commitments (youth WC, Confed Cup, Gold Cup, friendlies for Club and Country, cup competitions--domestic and Concacaf). Teams with depth will be "in the hunt" and teams without it will have their fans bemoaning "what might have been." That' said (not in order of finish, just how they occurred to me)... 1. SoS: critical depth issues. They need outside mids, they are hoping to get their A-mid from Spain (Rosas). We'll see what happens with those players. Maybe Dillon Shepherd is a gem, Rosas (will sign and) is the real deal, and they luck out with another winger. But this team is cap challenged. As much as I respect Bradley, think Moreno and Mathis will come back and have good seasons, even without a major injury, MLS teams need depth and this team won't have it (no matter how much people talk about Mark Lisi, Craig Ziadie, Mike Magee, Dillon Shepherd, Jeff Moore). 2. Chicago: no A-mid and no depth. DMB is being talked about as a player to drift to the middle and be a playmaker. That really hurts his ability to go back and play "D" (he's very under-rated in that area) and I don't think he'll provide the kind of service Faria and Razov and Jaqua and others need. Their first 10 players (until you try to fill in the A-mid spot) are actually quite good and this defense could be outstanding. But this team is (by my account) about 14 players deep and that isn't enough for MLS. At least they no longer have many of their guys who had chronic injury problems (Hristo, Nowak, Wolff). 3. Columbus: I still don't think they've settled their defensive issues (lots of bodies, no organizer or guy to build around--like Dallas has with Morrow). And with an unsettled defense, I think they'll be in the middle of the pack but unable to get it done when it counts. I still think they'll need to move major cap space when McBride comes back (unless his loan gets extended until the end of the Premiership season). B/c of their obstinance, I think Dante Washington gets cut (a shame--he's a good guy but now teams are bumping up against the cap or have made plans) and probably one other front-line player for them. 4. New England: Are they Jeykll (MLS finalist) or Hyde (the team in last place 2/3rds of the way through the MLS season in 2002)? They actually have little depth now (with Llamosa, Nowak, APC and Rooney departing). Much will depend upon who they decide to bring in. I don't think their defense will be as good--Llamosa was under-rated in that regard. Twellman was on fire last year--is that an indication of what he'll do this year or just a flash? I think Nicols is too good of a coach for this team to be a dud. But I also don't look at the personnel, lack of an A-mid, lack of a defensive organizer and see a team that is at the top of the table. 5. DCU: How will all the pieces fit together? That was the same question Jeff Bradley asked himself after seeing Hudson's Fusion team in 2001. We've all talked about how this looks like it's a team of midfielders. Several things jump out at you by looking at this team. --lots of depth (even if you don't include the rookies and clearly this bunch can contribute even if it's only in very specific roles). Of course, that depth will be essential as Convey, Quaranta, Nelsen, maybe Olsen and some rookies are all missing for big chunks of time. --lots of "brio". Stoichkov, Stewart (quiet intensity), Etcheverry (think of Marco at the all-star game, the man who got the nickname "El Diablo" b/c he was like a dervish on the pitch as a younger player), Kovalenko, Petke, Olsen. Like 'em or hate 'em, you can't deny that this bunch is a group that will run through brick walls (or at least try) and will leave their hearts on the field. No-one can credibly make charges about this team not caring (though I guarantee someone will as soon as we lose a match--b/c this is a team that should respond to such challenges as "you have no heart/don't care" and would take it as a personal insult). --lots of possession talent and skills. Marco, Earnie, Bobby, Quintanilla, Kovalenko, and even Hristo could all play in central midfield. This is a team made to grab the ball and hold it and force teams to chase it. --defensive talent. Losing Pope hurts. But the core of the defense (including the best performers from last year) all return. Kovalenko will help a lot. Ivanov is tantilizing-just think what it would mean if Hudson is right and we just acquired the best defender in the history of MLS? Certainly MLS hasn't gone out of it's way to acquire defenders from decent leagues with serious international pedigree (club and national team) who are under 30. Maybe Ivanov is that guy. Nelsen, even if he isn't a great D-mid, is an upgrade over Richie Williams. I think DCU's season is going to come down to finishing. While a lot of players will score goals, we're going to need someone to "do an APC" and grab 15+ goals for this team. Otherwise, this will be a team that plays attractive attacking soccer, that has games where they just blow people out, but then has 5-6 games where they dominate and lose 1-0.
My first response here is to look at the teams to see what changes they made in the offseason and to evaluate if those changes helped the team: -metros- For much of the year this was a below average team. Then they collapsed at the end. They needed a big shake-up and substantial upgrades. Have they gotten them? Defense: - Pope for Petke is a plus. Last year it seemed that Petke and Jolley were not happy together and a change was needed in central defense. So this is a good move although Pope will be called up some and be injured some. - Ziadie will remain Perch: nothing great though he still has some upside I think. Will he be called up for Jamainca in the Gold Cup? - They traded Akwari on the left and I think this was a very good move as I think the kid has a long way to go before he becomes reliable. Akwari to me is a classic example of a player who made a splase in the U-17s because he had a developed body and once his age group caught up to him (with the U-20s) his performance suffered. He will only be exposed more with C-bus. Midfield -They lost A. Williams, Ramos, and Davis, picking up R Williams, Rosas, Clark and not much else. Rosas better be the second coming of Etcheverry in order for this midfield to have not regressed. Playing Clark at right wing means that this team is not yet shaped right. Losing Davis creates a big hole on the left. Forwards - Lost Diallo and Faria; gained Moreno and Sheppard and Magee (who maybe in the midfield). Even if Moreno gets back to playing well these changes result in fewer goals from their forwards. Mathis will miss a bunch of games with the Nats. Moreno's injuries? Result: A better defense, worse offense, no net improvement unless Bradley is able to make more changes while being cap-strapped. I just get the feeling that we are seeing year one of a two year restructuring. Columbus A mid-level team last year, they changed very little in the offseason with Hedjuk, and Walsh being the two main additions. Defense Added Hedjuk. As Joe mentioned, there's no defensive leader here. Thus they are prone to allowing goals in transition- when the defense gets out of shape. Hedjuk doesn't answer this problem- in fact he may aggravate it as he will be forward much of the time. Offense They will still be potent even if they have to cut Washington as Buddle and Martino will both be a year older. Their main problem on offense as I see it is distribution to the forwards: sometimes it works but a good defense defeats them. Result: Much the same as last year: an average team that if it gets hot at just the right time might seriously challenge for the title. The odds of that happening are less than 30% however. One wonders how good they could be if they had the Revs disipline. Chicago Last year they faded down the stretch. To me it was clear that what Bradley was trying to do was no longer working. This is a rebuilding year for them. Defense The defense however should be still good though they aren't the best in the league. Bocanegra will be gone for some nats games probably. Offense Young and inexperienced. Beasley is not an a-mid, but they have very little choice here. The starting forwards are good in Razov and Faria though neither is particularly a creator: a lack of service from the midfield might really choke them off. Result: Then there's the lack of depth. Again this is a rebuilding year. Revolution A bunch of noise for not much net change from last year. Defense Losing Llamosa will hurt as Joseph is an unknown. Chuck was the main organizer but even if Kante fills this void the outside backs make this defense pretty inflexible: they do best when they are set and packed in as their one-on-one skills will betray them several times a game otherwise. Nicol is smart enough to keep playing conservatively though. IMO the MVP of their defense last year was Adin Brown. He was being counted on for a couple game-saving stops a game and he delivered. Put your basic good MLS GK in there (Matt Reis) and they probably don't make the playoffs. Brown must do as well this year. he should at leat be as close since he is still young, but they have to have him playing well and uninjured. Offense JMM will help a lot as the team shouldn't have to depend on Twellman to have as good a year as last year. Result: I think the fortunes of this team will depend a lot on how other teams play them. Like last year this will be a counterattacking team first and last. If opposing teams can contain the counter then sooner or later their defense wil get exposed. They key will be to be patient. Fortunately for the Revs, several teams won't be able to do this so a relatively injury-free year will see this team to the second round of the playoffs probably. Injuries to a few key players could be devastating however. United A bad team last year, they've made a lot of changes all around. Defense Pope and McKinley out, Petke and Ivanov in, Nelsen to d-mid. Ivanov is a big unknown here. If he's a rock than this defense would be among the best in the league. Nelsen will be an improvement over R Williams at d-mid: better size, slightly faster, and 100% better distribution. Offense Loads of changes and they all look to be improvements. But are they good enough? And if a couple of injuries happen will the subs be able to do better than last year? Result: major improvement from last year is 95% assured. How much better though is unknown. Everything will depend on how much the offense can dictate tempo.
Ursula, I'd have three comments to your post (besides that I think you make a lot of good points). 1. I'm not so sure Pope improves the SoS defense. I think it will be better b/c Oz is a fool and Bradley isn't. They'll be more organized. Just like Sigi took over for Oz and, with the same personnel, LA's defense became more organized. And for a single game or big match, I'd prefer Pope over Petke. But Pope will likely miss matches for the Confed Cup and I bet there is a 80% chance he also misses games to injury. As a result, I wouldn't be shocked if Pope played in only half of their matches this year. Their defense will be more organized and tighter, but not significantly better b/c I think (with Pope out for various reason) they'll actually have less talent back there. 2. Columbus--right now we can look at all that offensive fire power. But I think they're going to have to move more players than Dante Washington--he's only the most glaring example. 3. NE--they may want to counter. But with Llamosa missing, how good will they be at not giving up the first goal? I know, many NE fans will insist Llamosa was perreferial to their success last year. We'll see. Kind of hard to play a counter game if you're behind 1-0. If this team succeeds this year, I think it will have more to do with a superb coaching job by Nicols rather than the talent the NE fans perceive they have.
Joe, the Confederations Cup is from June 18th to 29th. The Metros play two games in that span. Increase it by a week on either side, and they play four games. Are you saying you expect Pope will be injured for another 11 games, for a total of 15 gtames? Do you realize that with all the injury problems he has had, he has still never missed more than 13 games in a season (1999)? I would think there is a 50/50 chance he'll play fewer than 23 games, with international call-ups. It's always entertaining the way you try to work ridiculous predictions into a style that pretends to be well-ordered and reasonable, but I do feel obliged to point out that to meet your prediction, Pope's health would need to collapse to an extent that would be totally unprecedented.
3. It will be interesting to see how good Kante is this year. He's the one guy to me that could really help them not miss Llamosa, but we'll see. I agree that if they give up the first goal much they will be in trouble as they don't have the firepower to easily come back. But just think of some of the defenses they will play against: C-bus should play into their strength by commiting lots to their offense leaving themselves open to counters. Chicago won't have the ability to play much of a possession game so there should be a bunch of opportunities for quick counters sgainst them as well. We also haven't seen yet if Sarachan can organize a defense was well as Bradley either. If Pope is missing for a Revs game, the metros defense will be more exposed too. I wonder about San Jose's and KC defenses also in terms of disipline especially if any injuries occur. So that's 5 teams where I can imagine the Revs counter strategy working pretty well- as long as they get the first goal. As for United, as long as Hudson stays disiplined, as long as he doesn't commit his defenders into the offense like he did last year with Pope and nelsen then they should have a decent answer to Ralston, JMM, Twellman countering. 2. I agree with you assessment of C-bus and that they may need to cut more than washington. But I doubt that they will cut a core player in addition to Dante like Chicago did. Regardless I don't like their passing: all their firepower amounts to less that the sum of the players to my mind. Where will the dicipline come from? They will miss Harkes. 1. I see you point about the metros defense and OZ. One thing I didn't mention before was that Mathis' performance, or non-performance- vs Argentina was the most telling for an MLS team of all the performances out there. He really shouldn't have been such a non-factor in that game and it makes me wonder if he will only be a factor sometimes in the MLS season. The problem is the metros need him to be either the MOTM or the second guy every night for them to succeed.
Re: Re: East Prognosis Do you think Pope will be playing in the Gold Cup as well? If so, how many games do the Metrostars play during that time?
No, I'm saying that I think there is a good chance he'll have more international commitments this spring/summer/fall than just the confed cup. Arena and USSF have both publicly stated that b/c of the European Qualifying windows, a number of teams have approached US Soccer about friendlies. You'll notice that in my post, I talked about the Confed Cup, friendlies and other USSF Competitions (for instance, I thought that the Gold Cup was being moved to this summer). And, it's also possible that Pope won't get called up for any of them (as Arena tries out new talent). But I think it's more likely that he'll be involved in more than 3 international matches during the MLS season.
Ursula, I agree that Mathis wasn't particularly impressive against Argentina. But I don't read much into that. Besides the lack of service our front-runners got, I think Arena's philosophy with Mathis is that he has to be played into shape. So he's going to continue to be part of US National camps and friendlies until he's ready to perform. Some may lament that but that's exactly how Etcheverry has tended to operate (showing up out of shape and playing his way into game condition). It took a while for Arena to figure that out and then they adjusted nicely to each other. I think viewing the Argentina match as a harbinger of Mathis' performance in MLS is about as accurate as doing the same with Olsen in that match. We know that Mathis doesn't have the best of work habits and he's still coming off a bad knee injury (which despite the optimists and SoS fans declare otherwise), I think it takes more than 1 year to really get it "right." Maybe he'll never make it all the way back and the high-lite of his career would be 2001. That would be a shame for US Soccer. I think it much more likely he'll play himself into game shape and sharpness. It may take him another year to regain the sharpness and goal-scorer's sense he had at the start of 2001. We'll see. But I think it's way too early to judge if Mathis is back or what kind of season he's going to have. I suspect it will be a good one (b/c Bradley's a good coach). But we'll see. And your point about columbus (the parts are greater than the whole) is so true--especially if they end up selling McBride (who makes great runs off the ball, has good workhabits off the field, is a good target, is unselfish).
Great stuff guys! I truly enjoyed reading all the posts. I hope that when MLS season gets closer, and rosters are finalized, this thread can get an update. THANKS.
Re: Re: Re: East Prognosis Gold Cup dates: July 12-27, 2003. The Metros have two scheduled games in that period. And no, I don't think Pope will be called up for both tournaments. But it could happen. Throw in a game on either side of that, and you've reached eight games that Pope could conceivably miss. But wait, there have been rumors that the US has six scheduled friendlies during the MLS season. Let's just disregard the fact that Arena typically waits until after the weekend games before bringing players in for midweek friendlies! Now we're down to only sixteen games that Pope could play, discounting his inevitable physical breakdowns that will alone cause him to miss a third of the schedule. Yes, Joe is right, Pope will only play six or seven games for the Metros this year (because of course none of those niggling injuries will ever occur in or around any international tournaments or friendlies). Please. If history is any guide, Eddie will miss a couple weeks with an injury, maybe two injuries, and will miss a few games for an international tournament. But Joe is hyping an absurd scenario into an inevitability. It would be unprecedented-- over his seven year MLS career-- for Pope to miss as many games as Joe "could see" him missing. That said, the Metros have depth issues. Injuries could clobber us-- and they could clobber you. But only Mathis has shown himself to be exceptionally fragile. And much depends upon the players whom none of you have seen (excepting Sheppard, whom I'm sure Ursula knows, and whom I saw at Giants Stadium in a friendly and thought was easily MLS-calibre). Speculating is fun, but this pretense at certainty is a joke. I think we'll both be way more watchable than last year, but I'll stop at that.
Re: Re: Re: Re: East Prognosis Love (of a sort) from Haig! Be still my heart! LOL. I do think Sheppard is a very good gamble... Yeah the rest of this is just wild arm waiving speculation. Good clean fun.
Re: Re: Re: Re: East Prognosis Thanks We have already discussed Pope, who I feel could definitely be a part of the 'fragile' contingent, and Moreno has to be a lock there as well.
Llamosa I thought I read something about the deal to send Llamosa to South America fell through. Did anyone else hear about this? Llamosa is still included on the Revs roster on their official website.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: East Prognosis Moreno has had one season in which he spent a lot of time injured-- 2002. And while that may be the start of a trend, other than 2002, he has been reliable-- not healthy 100% of the time, but a very consistant starter about 80-85% of the time. I don't think you can hope for much more than that. Do I need to point out how much time Etcheverry, Convey, Quaranta, and Olsen have been injured? I'll say "fragile" when I mean that a player tends to be injured over a period of time after having reached full fitness between injuries. I don't think that's the case with Moreno, and, as I've said, I think Pope's problems with injury have been exaggerated.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: East Prognosis I never said that Etch, Convey, Quaranta, and Olsen never get injured, or that they can't be placed into the 'fragile' description. This doesn't need to be a contest as to which team is more injury prone than the other, and hopefully for his sake Moreno's injuries last year were an abberation, and not the beginning of a pattern.
My prognosis ... subject to change prior to the start of the season 1. DC United The addition of hopeless optimism never hurts. But the players added take this team from a good but shallow team to a very good and very deep team. I feel we still lack some scoring punch up top, an aerial game from the forward line, backups for both wings and Dmid. This season should be determined by Ivanov and how the forwards gell with the rest of the team. As always, health is a concern, but the added depth really helps. 2. Metros IMHO, Bob Bradley is the best coach in MLS today. His greatest skills are A) getting great organized defensive play regardless of personnel, B) motivating veterans and putting them in positions to excel, and C) teaching youngsters enabling them to contribute and shine quickly. The pure talet of Mathis, Moreno, Howard, Williams, Ricardo Clark, Mike Magee and probably Mario make this too talented a team to not contend for the top spot in the East. Missed games (injuries, callups, etc.) and inconsistency are their biggest problems. 3. Columbus Crew Great offense gets better as Martino and Buddle continue to progress. McBride is clearly in form already, and Cunningham usually goes on a tear around midseason and is strong the rest of the year. Despite a porous defense, Dunseth and McCarty will be more experienced, have a full season under their belts in Columbus under Andrulis, and should be better. Clark is still a decent defender. Hejduk should be very good in MLS, allowing guys like Denton to stay safely on the bench. Diego Walsh, while not a true Dmid, is a quality midfielder. 4. New England Revolution It's scary to say it, but even my #4 prediction could win the conference, it's that close. Once Nicol got his house in order defensively, they were dominant. Make no mistake, this isn't a mediocre team, it's a very good one. Even without Llamosa the Revs showed the ability to control their central defense. With Hernandez and Cullen in front of them, this will continue to be an exceptional defense. Shalrie Joseph can play sweeper, left back, left wing, Dmid or forward. Noonan can play either wing or forward. Obviously Joe-Max Moore is a huge addition who can play forward or central attacking midfielder. The Revs are a lot deeper, very athletic in the back, and have two proven finishers. Nowak would have made a world of difference. Let's see if they fill that hole prior to the season, if so, they could move up. 5. Chicago Fire What everybody is missing about the Fire is that they still have the players to be good. After all, their defense was one of the best in the league. They were one of only three teams to allow fewer goals last season than DC United did. Everyone is back on defense, and this season they'll have Chris Armas and Evan Whitfield healthy, so they should be one of the deepest defenses in the league as well. They retained their perpetual leading scorer Razov. They added the Metros leading scorer Faria, who scored 12 goals last season and provides the speed that they lost with the Wolff trade. They added Nate Jaqua, a 6'3 creative forward who can play attacking midfielder probably as well as anyone currently on their roster. Oh yeah, and he's a proven finisher who is another aerial threat. They lost Dema, but replaced him with an extremely talented winger in Justin Mapp. Just because you didn't see much of him last year doesn't mean he's not good. Trust me, this guy has beathtaking skill, he's just still a little raw. Losing Nowak is the backbreaker. He's the reason I pick them to finish so low. -Tron
Haig, as I mentioned, it's possible Eddie won't get ANY callups. Or he might stay healthy. And I really think the world of him--for just 1 game, I'd take Pope over any other defender in MLS. That said, DC United has played 214 regular season games according to my data. Eddie Pope has started 140 of them. His best seasons were his first two (where the games he missed were only b/c of school and the Olympics and then year 2--1997 where he played 29 matches.) Other than that, he's never started more than 21 regular season games. That's about 65% for his career. If you exclude "97 (29 games) than he averages less than 20 games per season started in MLS. We could look at "games played". Except that games Eddie Pope played (but didn't start) are typically games in which he was injured and was put in anyway (or coming back from an injury). And "games started" is just as fair b/c he has a couple of matches (like one in 2001) where he was subbed out at around 9 minutes I think. Again, I'm not arguing Eddie Pope is anything other than what he is: a truly superb defender, class individual, great guy, and credit to his national team and club, someone that any other team in MLS would be proud to have. But he gets hurt and he has callups. And that means he won't play as many matches as Jolley or Petke.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: East Prognosis I agree with you-- I'm just saying that some posters are rating the Metros based on the following (flawed) argument: 1. The Metros rely on a core of players who will miss a lot of games from international play and from the inevitable injuries arising from their fragility... ... which is an exaggeration on both counts, and I think I've shown... 2. & their lack of depth will be cruelly exposed by the call-ups and injuries... ... which may be true, and DC certainly has a squad with more established depth, but there aren't many people qualified to talk about Tim Regan, for example, and Bob Bradley has always had a knack for finding unknown players who outperform their reputations... 3. ... ergo the Metros will stink. To which I say, you really don't know enough to speak so authoratatively.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: East Prognosis OK, have it your way. Moreno hasn't been injured that much - that's just an excuse that the apologists have been using. The reality is, he has just been playing like crap the last couple of years. Happy now?
I wonder? With Novak's retirement, does that free up money for NE to pay Llamosa's salary request (demand). Perhaps he could come back into the Rev's planning for this season?
Llamosa What is going on with Llamosa anyway? I heard that the deal to send him to South America fell through and he's still on the roster at the Revs website. Yet people talk like he's gone. What's up?
My understanding was that the team (the REvs) wanted him back and had no problem with his salary figure--it was the league that balked at giving him $200k. maybe that isn't accurate info but that's my understanding.