Early Celebration Thread

Discussion in 'Belgium' started by Blondo, Mar 25, 2017.

  1. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    #26 Blondo, Nov 27, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2017
    Final Draw

    This Friday, 1 Dec., from 15h45 - 17h35 CET (on the één) ... the show in Moscow’s State Kremlin Palace starts at 4pm Brussels time.

    Final Draw procedures


    Unlike in Brazil I'd like an early group with extra days to recuperate this time round. Russia go in group A, so please can we have B, C or D. As all teams are drawn alphabetically Belgium would have to be drawn rather quickly (for pots 2-4 groups could be skipped to respect geographic separation). Group B is coupled with Russia's group so that could be a plus yet D looks quite appealing:

    - Group D opener: afternoon in Moscow (40K+ seater) while next game's opponents play a late game in Kaliningrad. As we'll be based in Moscow it would be great to start with a "home" game. Getting group B means starting a day earlier but that's in Sochi while group C means travelling around a lot (especially in case of a deep run).

    - 2nd match: venue is in the closest city to Moscow where games are played and we'd be playing a day earlier than our opponents in the final match (2x 4 days between games instead of 5 then 3 days; coming first in group D means another 4 days between games and playing the Ro16 in the same stadium as this match).

    - final match of the group: Saint Petersburg, also played in the same time slot as the previous game (and if you come first in the group R016, QFs and SFs are in that time slot as well). The opponents will have had to endure a lot of travel while having a day less to prepare for this game.

    So ideally weaker teams go in group C while we top group D ... if you top the group you'll have 4 days between the final match of the group and the Ro16 which is held in a familiar venue close to where we'll be based. Then a similar amount of travel and 5 days between Ro16 and the quarters, 3 days between quarters and semis just like the opponents but in the final you'd have one day less than the team advancing from the other semis. A soft path depends on who advances from group C for the Ro16 and groups A or B for the quarters (it's a plus that it includes the possibility of a game against Russia). For me group D please.

    "Who do you like to be drawn into our group or possibly face in the KO stage?"

    I'm not going for the easiest opponents, ranking them from 1, yes please, to 8, ffs:

    Pot 2

    1. Croatia priced at 30 to 1 ............. squad worth +/- 300m
    2. Peru .............. at 125 to 1............. squad worth +/- 30m
    3. Mexico .......... at 70 to 1 .............. squad worth +/- 100m
    4. Colombia ...... at 50 to 1 .............. squad worth +/- 200m
    5. Switzerland ... at 70 to 1 .............. squad worth +/- 200m
    6. Uruguay ........ at 40 to 1 ...............squad worth +/- 200m
    7. England ......... at 20 to 1 ............. squad worth +/- 300m
    8. Spain ............. at 7 to 1.................squad worth 600m+

    We're more likely to draw a team from outside of Europe, roughly 60/40, but if we do end up with a UEFA team from pot 2 we'll avoid some of the stronger teams in the next pots. Drawing Croatia promises sparks yet Peru are the weakest team, have zero experience and their top striker, P.Guerrero, could even face a 2 year ban for taking cocaine with his tea. I doubt Uruguay will trust their youngsters in a big game and a cynical approach from them wouldn't be a surprise. Let others take care of Spain.

    Pot 3

    1. Denmark ...... at 80 to 1 ..... squad worth +/- 150m
    2. Tunisia ......... at 350 to 1 ... squad worth +/- 30m
    3. Costa Rica ... at 350 to 1 ... squad worth +/- 20m
    4. Iran .............. at 400 to 1 .... squad worth +/- 40m
    5. Iceland ......... at 150 to 1 ... squad worth +/- 60m
    6. Egypt ........... at 250 to 1 .... squad worth +/- 80m
    7. Sweden ....... at 70 to 1 ...... squad worth +/- 100m
    8. Senegal ....... at 170 to 1 .... squad worth +/- 200m

    Denmark want to play an actual game of football while there are too many in the bottom two pots that will sit, pack and park. In case our group contains two UEFA teams (like 6/8 groups will have) I'm hoping we avoid the UEFA teams from pot 2 + Serbia and we get Denmark from this pot. We should be able to deal with them while some of the other games could be really aggravating. Quite a few in this pot know how to frustrate opposition and can be deadly on the break with speed. Senegal have a rather nice team and some of their players have played/are playing in Belgium. Still I'm wishing them on France (cfr. 2002).

    Pot 4

    1. Panama .......... at 400 to 1 ... squad worth +/- 5m
    2. Saudi Arabia ... at 500 to 1 ... squad worth +/- 20m
    3. S.Korea ........... at 300 to 1 ... squad worth +/- 50m
    4. Australia .......... at 200 to 1 ... squad worth +/- 40m
    5. Japan .............. at 150 to 1 ... squad worth +/- 50m
    6. Nigeria ............ at 125 to 1 ... squad worth +/- 90m
    7. Morocco .......... at 170 to 1 ... squad worth +/- 100m
    8. Serbia ............. at 60 to 1 ..... squad worth +/- 200m

    Better to draw an absolute throwaway bet from this pot. Panama would be lovely and hopefully by this time Denmark are in our group and we can't draw Serbia any longer. I'd be happy with what promises to be an enjoyable group like:

    Belgium
    Colombia
    Denmark
    Panama
     
  2. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
  3. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    Probabilities of World Cup draws - Belgium

    Pot 2

    - 16.67% Colombia + Peru + Uruguay
    - 10.00% Mexico + Croatia + Spain + England + Switzerland

    Pot 3

    - 13.80% Costa Rica
    - 13.56% Tunisia + Iran + Senegal + Egypt
    - 10.67% Sweden + Iceland + Denmark

    Pot 4

    - 13.32% Panama
    - 12.98% South Korea + Japan + Australia + Saudi Arabia
    - 12.48% Morocco + Nigeria
    - 9.78% Serbia
     
  4. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    [​IMG]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_Group_G

    The draw didn't start out great for us, getting group G and England, but it got much better from then on ... our group leaves no room for excuses ... we must advance or could as well stay home and save us the bother ... Panama and Tunisia already were throwaway bets and their odds have been drifting since the draw ... OTOH our odds and England's have shortened ... expecting Panama and Tunisia to park the bus but we'll have to break down better defences to go far ... playing England for the top spot? ... will the runners-up receive a better reward for their troubles?

    [​IMG]

    >>> a guide to the grounds hosting games in Russia

    The cross over is with Poland's group ... a very open, balanced group with sides that could grind each other down ... if we can qualify for the KO stages after the first two games we'd have the choice to conserve energy, the tie with England could be a non-event. Another positive is that we'll know ahead of our final group match who'll be the opponents waiting in the Ro16, we'll see who's on song then, and what we need to get into the better, easier half of the table ... it wouldn't be a bad idea to come second if, for example, Brazil win their group and Germany advance as runners-up ... in case there's no soft path: going into the Ro16 as group winners, Brazil in the quarters, France in the semis and Germany in the final ... or going into the Ro16 as runners-up, Germany, Spain and then Brazil ... hey-ho, why not face a few worthy opponents along the way.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  5. ra_sriniketan

    ra_sriniketan Member

    Jul 5, 2010
    Like the comment. Whats the point playing with mediocre teams only? Excellent fixture though. Weakest team to start with and strongest to finish in the group. In knockout stage just show what you are made off.
     
  6. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
  7. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    v. Saudi Arabia - March 27

    v. Portugal on June 1
    v. Costa Rica - June 11

    Costa Rica because, well, England already had asked them over ... expecting one more friendly to be added to the training camp ahead of Russia.
     
  8. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    A shame for Defour who was having a good season. For the World Cup squad the silver lining is that we have the depth to cope with it (can't have as many injuries as we had in 2016, everybody pray, especially for our defenders). I hope Nainggolan will be given a chance during the next break.

     
  9. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    Radja was included in the KBVB's vid ... Martinez not closing the door on Defour wasn't a surprise but can you really pick him over Radja (no you can't and it isn't up for debate).

     
  10. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    Our training camp schedule ahead of Russia ... a week after the send-off friendly we'll face Panama, on 18 June, in our World Cup opener.

    [​IMG]
     
  11. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    The usual at 12:00 CET.



    [​IMG]
     
  12. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    Nainggolan :devilish::) I'm happy for Limbombe as well. Some questionable choices like Mirallas, Dendoncker, ... (especially Ciman shouldn't be near the squad).

    [​IMG]
     
  13. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
  14. ra_sriniketan

    ra_sriniketan Member

    Jul 5, 2010
    Where can i see the live stream of today's match?
     
  15. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    With any luck you can find a decent one on reddit. I doubt it as there are far more interesting ties like Germany v Brazil, Spain v Argentina or even England v Italy. Streams won't be up this early (you'll have to wait until kick-off edges closer).
     
  16. ra_sriniketan

    ra_sriniketan Member

    Jul 5, 2010
    No de poitre!
     
  17. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
  18. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    Batsman ankle injury: the doctors are confident nothing is broken. Yet severe ligament damage could be season ending. Batsman would only be out for up to two weeks in case of minor damage but if it's more severe he'll miss the next 4-8 weeks (and maybe even longer if it's really bad or he has a relapse when coming back). MRI will be conducted tomorrow.
     
  19. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
     
  20. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    Seriously, being glad that a player was injured and might miss the World Cup.

    [​IMG]
     
  21. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
  22. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    EURO 2020 ... Belgium could gain an advantage in case we're drawn into group C or F ... those group winners will play a 3rd-placed team in the Ro16 and then a runners-up in the quarters ... Germany, as top seeds, go into group F ... group C (and B) seem the most likely to lack a top seed ... wouldn't mind ending up in group C with Holland and Romania.

    A: Italy, Azerbaijan
    B: Russia, Denmark
    C: Netherlands, Romania
    D: England, Scotland
    E: Spain, Ireland
    F: Germany, Hungary

    https://www.footballseeding.com/international-tournaments/euro-2020/
     

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