I've been thinking we should have a thread for Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. Partly because they might actually have an effect on this year's presidential race, and partly because they are occasionally saying things that are worth remarking upon, like Stein's recent footsie with the anti-vaxxer crowd. But I decide to post this thread today because of Evan McMullin's entrance into the race. Who the hell is Evan McMullin? Apparently he's a Team #NeverTrumper, and he's going to run for president as an independent. Before announcing his bid today, he had a staggering 100 twitter followers! So, basically, he's nobody. It's already August 8. Can he even get himself on the ballot anywhere? Actually, yes. He's a Mormon who went to BYU. The deadline in Utah is August 15, and he'd only need a paltry 1000 signatures. I doubt he's got much of an organization behind him, but -- theoretically -- that's possible even in just one week. Indeed, one of those articles suggests that his campaign will focus primarily on Utah. He could get on the ballot in a few other states too. Idaho, for one -- another state with plenty of Mormons. Tennessee, certainly. Mississippi and Rhode Island, as well. And he could probably be a certified write-in candidate in some other states too. (Plus, he could sue in other places to get on the ballot.) I doubt this election will hinge on what happens in Utah, but Utah may prove an interesting 2016 story. And I'm not sure if he'd take more votes from Trump than from Gary Johnson. (My hunch is that he actually cuts into Johnson's totals in Utah more than Trump's.) Still, it appears that Team #NeverTrump has finally found its (obscure) man. So why not use that occasion to start this thread for independent and third party candidates.
I think McMullin's function in the race is to give GOPers running for office someone to support without supporting Hillary. I doubt it will work for those guys because as I wrote before, Trump is exactly the kind of narcissistic asshole that will get his revenge on, say, Richard Burr by telling his (Trump's, I mean) supporters in NC not to vote for Burr. And Trump's supporters seem to be the kind of people who will, in large numbers anyway, do what Trump says.
Newly created Better for America Party is giving its Arkansas ballot spot to Evan McMullin in his indy prez bid, per Ballot Access News.— Politics1.com (@Politics1com) August 8, 2016
I struggle to see how McMullin makes any sort of splash or what his point even is. Most #NeverTrumpers know of Gary Johnson, and he's already a feasible vehicle for this sort of protest vote. McMullin's a noobody and unless MAJOR money is poured into making him a somebody it's difficult to see how he makes an impact.
Because he's a Mormon, I think he could be a factor in Utah, and maybe Idaho. But mostly Utah. Frankly, in Utah being Mormon = instance organization, instant resources.
Nevada, too. Think about it this way...in Nevada, he probably boosts turnout for the GOP Senate candidate. Sure, he probably costs Trump Nevada, but Trump is going to lose anyway.
I like the thread title. And I'm eager to see regional variation for Johnson and Stein. Johnson will do well in the West, whether or not he breaks the Libertarian's pathetic offense in the Confederacy remains to be seen. Stein should do great in places where GMO foods are a bad thing and whooping cough is coming back. ...Color me skeptical about McMullins outside, as Knave correctly pointed out, Utah.
@superdave A little follow-up on the Nevada ballot access issue. The deadline to have your name/party placed on the ballot is long past in Nevada. And they don't allow write-ins on the Nevada ballot either. So there's no way for McMullin to get his name on the ballot (unless they concoct some sort of lawsuit and win, which seems like a long-shot). [Edit - One little asterisk for the above. If there's a party qualified for a ballot line that wants to give their line to McMullin, they could probably do that, just like that party in Arkansas. But I have no idea if there are any parties in Nevada that might be willing or able to do that.] However, there is a funny quirk on the Nevada ballot. It's unique in the USA. Along with all the candidates that make the ballot, the Nevada ballot will also feature a "None of The Above" option. Perhaps for certain Nevadans that "None of The Above" option will be functionally identical to a McMullin vote in, say, Utah. I'll say one thing: the "None of The Above" vote in Nevada will be an interesting thing to see on election night.
It's early days...but I saw a poll with and without Johnson and Stein. Stein doesn't get many votes, so she's fairly irrelevant...but the "with Johnson" numbers were closer than the "without Johnson." History teaches us that on election day, the two major party candidates collectively do better than they do in, say, August. It'll be interesting to see if that trend holds. It wouldn't surprise me if Johnson runs fairly strong and the result is a smaller PV win for Hillary, but that he swings a couple of states so that her EV win is bigger than it would have been with a normal 1% type performance from the Libertarians.
I expect both Johnson and Stein to exceed their national averages here in Minnesota. Neither Trump or Clinton did well here in the primary. I've already seen Jill Stein ads on TV. There's a strong libertarian niche here too ... Ron Paul is probably the 3rd most common bumper sticker you'll see on the roads after Obama and Bernie ... My only concern in MN is that there are no sexy statewide races this year which may lead to a lower turnout than usual. Not sure if that favors anyone in particular but it's an interesting detail to keep an eye on
How anybody could say with a straight face that Jill Stein is qualified to be president is beyond me.