Review: Dutch NT - WC 2014 preparation thread

Discussion in 'The Netherlands' started by DRB300, Dec 3, 2013.

  1. Brilliant Dutch

    Brilliant Dutch Member+

    Ajax
    Netherlands
    Oct 14, 2013
    Amsterdam, Holland
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
  2. Brilliant Dutch

    Brilliant Dutch Member+

    Ajax
    Netherlands
    Oct 14, 2013
    Amsterdam, Holland
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    Surprised to see Italy so low
     
  3. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    There is a good chapter in Simon Kuper & Steven Szymanski's book "Soccernomics" on PKs. the key points were published in The Guardian. It covers things from both the keeper and the PK taker's perspective. Well worth reading but still doesn't address why the Dutch are so inept.
     
    El Cid repped this.
  4. Persona

    Persona Member

    Feb 24, 2014
    Basically confirms everything I said. You look at the sheet before the penalties to see where the players historically kick the ball(and keepers dive) and then decide where you want to go. It's all statistics for the most part. This "looking for tells" when they're running up to the ball is pure buffoonery, especially with all the running and stopping nonsense guys do nowadays. Most keepers make their first move before the ball is even hit because it's physically impossible to react and get to a spot in time if the ball is heading towards one of the corners at the velocity it travels at if you wait for contact.

    The Pirlo chip penalty is a great example. During his run the keeper was already moving to the right a good half second before he chipped the ball. I cannot even recall the last time a keeper didn't move until the ball was struck, it's a death sentence. You will not reach the football if it's hit with power.

    Regardless, the world cup needs to start so we can actually start talking football instead of wasting our breath on penalties :thumbsup:
     
  5. Hayaka

    Hayaka Member+

    Jun 21, 2009
    San Francisco North Bay, Bel Marin Keys
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    I don't think that is true at all, but in any event are are you taking the position that the fact Germany has won 83% of shootouts and Holland 20% is essentially a matter of luck? Or is it that the Dutch keepers aren't doing their homework?

    It is interesting that van der Sar was prominently featured in the discussion. He was obviously following his own formula that did not follow the approach recommended by the author's, although it ultimately worked out for him against Chelsea.

    IMO, luck obviously plays a role, but I have to think it is mental strength that separates the great PK teams from the rest. And that mental strength may in large part be autogenetic. Germans will make their penalty kicks because Germans make penalty kicks. End of story.
     
  6. DRB300

    DRB300 Member+

    Sep 21, 2007
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    #631 DRB300, Jun 8, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2014
    That was not an attempt to prove my point. It was an attempt push things a bit so we can get a closer look at this issue. With results. It was not clear that skill, wits and weather were other factors you considered, only that luck outweighs them in your opinion. So the discussion has now moved on to a matter of degrees how significant these factors are and how much they weigh against each other.

    I think your last point is another factor to cut back on luck. Some teams in the past did their homework and knew what the opponent players did with their penalty's in the past. Others thought it was all luck anyway, so did not bother. It's funny that the one who attributes it so much to luck is finishing his point with something that can influence the outcome.

    Let me be clear from my side. I don't say that luck plays no role or a significant role. I say that there are things a team can do to cut back on just luck. Top sport is all about gaining more control. Getting that 1% advantage over the opponent and then another and then one more. Moving forward to win.

    My story about how I stopped taking penalty's after the E teams moving to the D teams is a story about stopping the process to automating the kick. If you kick a penalty after every game from the F teams to the senior teams, you simply have more experience in kicking penalty's. You have gotten used to taking one when being tired. If in the youth development they implement certain rules that the winning team can still lose due to the penalty's at the end, then the stress component can be mimicked a bit. That feeling of anxiety becomes familiar and taking a good penalty despite it, becomes more normal. This is gaining the skill.

    At the keeper side of things van der Sar is a good example. he was not good at them. Aftre a long talk with van Breukelen he started to come into the box later than when the taker arrived. Standing there as a taker before being able to take it, makes a taker think. Thinking is bad. After that, Sar started to complain if the ball was placed correctly on the spot. Look at this clinic:




    Look at the metal game that is played here. Installing doubt and fear in the mind of the taker. A keeper can do much more than just guess a corner and go for it. Also look at this study about how posture and positioning plays a role in influencing the taker:

    The human Muller-Lyer illusion in goalkeeping


    There are takers that place their shots near the post and there are takers that bank more on a hard shot and less so on precision. With above study in hand it is wise to profile the takers from the opponent. The penalty takers that go for accurate placement must be confronted with a keeper making the illusion that the keeper is very big, so that he will go even more for the corner and hopefully hits the post or past it. The takers that go more for a power shot must be confronted with a keeper that looks small as they might not place it enough out of reach of the keeper.

    Keepers have tools in their hands to influence things. Maybe they can make a player go for his least favorite corner by positioning themselves in a certain way. The paper above opens with a study suggesting something like that is possible. It depends on each player if this is favorable or not.


    I think you have to look at these things not separately but take into account how powerful they become when methods are compounded. Keepers arriving later than the taker, harassing the taker for not being accurate enough in ball placement on the spot, profiling the taker, knowing what posture to choose for each kind of taker.

    Then there is the Benfica-Sevilla example from the UEFA Cup. That Sevilla keeper came off his line way too early. With like 2 or 3 refs next to him it was allowed. Breaking the rules by a keeper must be part of his arsenal as well. It won Sevilla the UEFA Cup and the stats in the post above probably contain a lot of saves where keepers came off their line to stop a penalty.


    I don't think it is a simple coin toss. I think there are real things that teams/players can do to take and stop penalty's in a better way and that there is skill to it.
     
    Hayaka repped this.
  7. MrOranjeBal

    MrOranjeBal Member

    Apr 7, 2009
    Club:
    AZ
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    I will be in Berlin on the 13th, any suggestions on where to go and see the game against spain?
     
  8. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    Holland
     
  9. Brilliant Dutch

    Brilliant Dutch Member+

    Ajax
    Netherlands
    Oct 14, 2013
    Amsterdam, Holland
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    Any bar or nightclub with a large-screen TV should have it
     
  10. RobinVanRobben

    May 1, 2014
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
  11. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    Regarding penalties, Ronald Koeman holds the Spanish league record for consecutive penalties converted with 25 straight. Messi got to 21 this season before missing. So at least one Dutchman knows how to do it. Maybe he should be a special coach for the NT.
     
  12. runnerup

    runnerup Member

    May 15, 2012
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    But how will Sneijder and Van Persie link up this time? Van Persie is friends with Van Gaal, Sneijder isn't. Sneijder likes setting up Robben, when scoring by himself isn't an option.
    I'm curious how Van Gaal's treatment of Sneijder and Van Persie will help the team.

    What I like about the current formation, is that it helps being laid back. The 3 up front won't do any pressing naturally and are allowed to just wait for a decent ball, the 7 behind wait for the opponent to come. May not be too bad in the Brazilian weather, although it's winter I guess, in most or all of the places we play?
    And another factor in our favour is that normally, the team with the best attacking fullbacks becomes world champion.
     
  13. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    IMO this is not an issue. I think all four of them realize that this is their last WC and they will try to do anything they can (maybe even a well taken dive) to advance as far as the team can go. The rest of the starters save de Jong are very young and this is their first WC, whether Van Gaal can pull off something for the ages remains to be seen.
     
  14. Brilliant Dutch

    Brilliant Dutch Member+

    Ajax
    Netherlands
    Oct 14, 2013
    Amsterdam, Holland
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
  15. sonicdream

    sonicdream Member

    Sep 27, 2002
    West of Suez canal
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    ^LOL I saw on tv that Cesc penalty shot to the upper stratosphere, it was hilarious. As much as I want to see Spain lose, I keep reminding myself that there is almost near zero correlation between friendlies - especially just before the WC - and the actual matches that do count, as far as predicting team forms and successes. In fact, I think it's almost the opposite ... I don't know of any team having a super run-up prior to the WC, and winning it all.

    That being said though, as I mention in a previous post that Spain does not have a lot of good historical stat going in for them, as defending champions. I'll agree with you that this, combined with their current shaky form, makes them a recipe for WC disappointment.

    As it stands, NED-ESP is reeking of a dull nil-nil draw, with both coaches trying unconventional line up or formation changes to try to counter team deficiencies.

    I think in our group Australia will be the x-factor. They have pulled off a surprise result each time at the WC finals in the past, and there's no reason to believe that they won't pull it off again.
     
  16. BaritoPutra

    BaritoPutra Member+

    Jan 26, 2007
    Continuing history on the Dutch and infighting, leading up or during the major tournament... :p All we can hope is that fire and passion carried on to the pitch when it counts the most.

     
  17. vagegast

    vagegast Member

    Sep 25, 2004
    Herndon, VA
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    Anybody else surprised there's a team worse than Holland at PKs?
     
  18. MrOranjeBal

    MrOranjeBal Member

    Apr 7, 2009
    Club:
    AZ
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    I had hoped for a less generic answer ;-) oh well I'll have to ask the friendly locals then.
     
  19. Brilliant Dutch

    Brilliant Dutch Member+

    Ajax
    Netherlands
    Oct 14, 2013
    Amsterdam, Holland
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
  20. windycity

    windycity Member

    Oct 19, 2001
    Where do you think
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    ok told myself to not get nervous so of course I'm getting nervous. Well more excited really.

    FIFA maybe be a disgusting corrupt, organization but I can't help but love the WC
     
    richsavare and El Cid repped this.
  21. onzie77

    onzie77 Member

    Ajax
    Netherlands
    May 18, 2012
    miami
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    in the end, you can be excited, nervous, optimistic, pessimistic, but in the end you can't fight the inevitable, spain and holland will play in just over 24 hours from now, in salvador.
     
  22. onzie77

    onzie77 Member

    Ajax
    Netherlands
    May 18, 2012
    miami
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    So any surprises we should see for the game, any news on de guzman or anything else going on?

    clasie vs de guzman vs fer

    5-3-2 it seems to be.

    sneidjer, de jong, kuyt partying all night long

    janmaat and van persie run over by kitesurfer.

    The locals in Rio love Holland as their second team behind of course brazil
     
  23. sonicdream

    sonicdream Member

    Sep 27, 2002
    West of Suez canal
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    [​IMG]

    Interesting article in the NYTimes, for what it's worth eh...

    Seems like just about everyone think Brasil will win it, many countries rooting against USA & Argentina...and Iran
     
  24. El Cid

    El Cid Member

    Jul 4, 2006
    DFW, Texas
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  25. Brilliant Dutch

    Brilliant Dutch Member+

    Ajax
    Netherlands
    Oct 14, 2013
    Amsterdam, Holland
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    Are you sure about that??
     

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