A crucial conference game for both teams in terms of seeding for the ACC tournament. 7:00 start in Durham Friday night. Unseasonably cold temps are forecast for the game, but it should be dry. I have a feeling that Wake is going to hammer Duke. Prediction: 3-1 WF. Duke has done a good job defensively the latter part of the season, but Wake's potent offense should be too much for the Devils to handle. If Perea and McIntosh have good games for Duke, the Devils should own the midfield, but I don't think Duke has enough offensive punch to find the net against a very good defensive team in WF. Plus, I think Wake's speed up front will present all kinds of problems for Duke. Thoughts?
Decent analysis although I'm not sure I agree with the midfield assessment. Wake may actually be due for a let down. But this is Duke they are playing. And next to Carolina there is no school Wake students hate more than Duke. I'll take Wake 2-1. They get the late goal and this time they don't concede the equalizer. Also, my pick for the ACC Tourney is Clemson. Put me on record now.
Wow, that would be the first back-to-back tournament champs since Virginia in the glory years of the early 90's. BTW, not that there's any doubt of Arena's greatness as a coach, but just in case: From 91-95 his UVa teams won the ACC tournament 5 straight years. Winning 2 in a row these days would be pretty tough (though I'm not saying Clemson can't do it) and 3 in a row would be pretty special. But 5? That's hard to imagine happening in this era.
Curious Just curious how many times UVA came in as the #1 seed during that five year run. As we all know it is a huge advantage to get the bye in the first round while the 4 and 5 seeds beat the crap out of each other only to play #1 the next day. I don't mean to imply that five ACC tourny titles in row is not amazing but I'm guessing UVA was seeded #1 on many of those occasions and only had to win two games against tired teams.
UVA of the 90's Thanks Sandon, those were some amazing teams UVA had in the early 90's. I don't think will see that kind of domination again. The last four ACC regular season titles have been won by four different teams and although I don't have the tourny results handy I'm guessing those results were spread out a bit as well. Getting back to the Duke - Wake game we should all remember it will be played at Duke and home teams have been hard to beat in the ACC this year. My Terps will likely have their hands full in Charlottesville tomorrow night as well.
Good point from Terp Fan about the amount of success from home teams this year in the ACC. Saying that, the real key will be how Duke is able to handle the speed of White, Moose and Co. up front. Ahumada is susposed to be healthy for the first time in quite a while, and he was a key contributor in victories against Clemson and UNC earlier in the year. If they can slow this game down to a crawl (which has been tough for any Wake opponent to do this season), it could come down to the personnel in the midfield for both teams. Carroll is a great distributor from his wide position, but you have to like Perea's creativity and ability to break down a defense. With Kyle Martino gone to MLS (and now the US National Team), this kid has got to be considered the most creative playmaker in the country. You also have two of the hottest goalkeepers in the ACC (and for the country, for that matter) in Wake's Hesmer and Duke's Trowbridge. This should be a fun game to watch from a spectator's standpoint. There were almost 5,000 fans in attendance for the Duke-UNC game, and hopefully tomorrow night's game will draw a similar crowd. I know that Duke can be a tough team to root for, but they get great fan support there year after year.
Perhaps, but SMU's Diego Walsh, Indiana's Ned Grabavoy and UC-Santa Barbara's Memo Arzate are also creative and effective playmakers. Perea is good but without seeing them all it's tough to say who is the best. Oh, and Wake's Justin Moose is also turning some heads.
I've seen all these players, except Arzate so I can comment on the others. On the ball, no question, Perea is the best. His vision, knack for finding the best option, and incredible first touch put him a slight notch above the others. Walsh is very similar, and has the ability to make others around him look good. Grabavoy is a little more blue collar in his approach, and among the players Sandon listed, is the best off the ball. Moose is playing quite well, but he's really a forward and works very hard. Very good two way player, and for a guy who is REALLY 5-7, he wins a lot of balls in the air.
Seven common opponents. Wake 5-0-2. Duke 4-3-0. Last eleven at Duke the Deacons apparently are 3-8-0. Last year regular season. Wake 2 - Duke 0. White with both goals. ACC Tourney Wake won on PK's. Plenty to suggest a draw. I still go with Wake 2 - Duke 1.
Sandon, that's a pretty comprehensive list. Some coaches seem to think that Walsh and Perea are similar players but that Walsh is 6-0 tall (that would be fun to watch on a regular basis). Moose has had some season, and if you saw when I did my predictions for All-ACC, he was the first midfielder I listed. He is really fun to watch because he has 'energizer-bunny' work rate and is very creative. Sandon, where do you see the rest of the playmakers in the conference? Maryland certainly has a pretty creative player as well. UVA might have put too much stock in Vide, who really hasn't contributed too much this year (although still only a freshman). There seems to be a lot of posts on Peria from NCSU, but I think he looks overmatched most of the time. I really like UNC's Testo, who is kind of like Moose in that he's kind of like in-between a forward and a midfielder. Perea drifts in and out of games sometimes, but for my money, he and Moose would be the first guys I would drop down $5 for to watch....thankfully Duke doesn't charge at the gate.....allows more money for popcorn!
Blue Chip, I think the reason people aren't sure if Moose is a F or MF, is because of his work rate. He gets back a lot, which gives people the impression that he is a forward. He's really a forward who is very active, but technically, he's a forward, not a MF. Wake plays a 3-5-2 with two attacking mids.
Wake 2-0 Duke This was a game featuring two completely different halves. Wake came out in a 3-5-2, to Duke's 4-4-2, but despite the fact Wake had an extra midfielder, Duke had the better of the play in the opening half. In particular Donald McIntosh really played well for Duke in the middle, and Ryan Kerlew was doing very nice things from his left back position. He got forward several times and created some decent opportunities, but the Devils were outshot by Wake 3-1 in the opening half. Wake was not clicking, but things would change for the second half. Halftime score was 0-0. Both teams made adjustments at halftime. Wake's adjustments worked, Duke's did not. Wake moved Moose from his forward spot, to a withdrawn striker/quasi A-mid position, with Ryan Alexander and Jeremiah White up top. It worked. In the 62nd minute, Wake transitioned quickly and Moose made a nice diagonal run into open space in the attacking third. At the same time, Duke's keeper made a crucial mistake by coming way off his line. He was caught in no man's land when Moose received the ball and made a move toward the goal. White was making a far post run as Moose tried to slip it past the out of position keeper. White got to the ball inside the 6 and was taken down from behind by Adam Guren who promptly received a red card. White then buried the PK and it was 1-0 Wake. Duke actually played well with only 10 players, and the momentum shifted for a while but Wake was able to stay in control. In the 88th minute, Alexander blew past Duke's defense and hit a nice cross into the box that White finished for his second goal of the match. It looked to me like Duke just gave up on the play. A couple of observations. Wake did not look like the top ranked team in the country. At moments in the second half they did, but overall, not a great 90 minute effort. White was the MOTM, and I thought Saunders did a nice job at right back for Wake. IMO, Brian Carroll is very overrated. In the first half, he was constantly being burned by Kerlew and then Kramer for Duke. Carroll just doesn't do it for me, and the last few times I've watched him play, he doesn't seem to play with any passion. Moose also did not have his A game tonight, but White was fabulous and he was too much for Duke to handle although Ahumada had a solid game in the back for Duke. And now, to play armchair coach for a minute. Kerlew was really playing well, and Rennie subbed him with about 15 minutes to play in the first half. A ridiculous move because he was attacking well, and his defending was solid. Rennie also subbed D-mid Joe Kelly who was also playing quite well. Kelly took a knock in the opening half, but seemed to be okay. I don't think he played at all in the second half. His replacement, freshman Blake Camp was totally out of his league in this game. The only thing he did was collect fouls and a yellow card. Jordan Cila was also nowhere to be found in this game...he totally disappeared. Perea was okay, but not up to what I expected from him tonight. Wake's Amir Lowery is their D-mid, and this guy is a thug without skills. On a team with so many ballers, this guy really sticks out like a sore thumb. If he was a hockey player, he'd lead the league in PIM. All he does is hack people for 90 minutes. One good thing about this match...both teams possessed the ball and there was not the constant long balls to nowhere that we often see in college soccer.
I didn't think either team had a particular edge in the first half, though Wake always looked a little more composed and confident on the ball throughout the entire match. The first half was a typical college game, frantic pace, lots of long balls, looked like the old First Division in England. I actually thought Duke had the better of the first 10 or 12 minutes in the second half. They finally used a bit of width and got in behind the Wake defense a few times. The first Wake goal came after Duke had pushed forward very hard. Wake cught them on a counter, the keeper came out to intercept a longish pass and lost his footing. I was at the other end of the grandstand so didn't see the foul that led to the PK, but from my distant vantage point, looked like a legitimate call. Duke pushed up hard with ten men and had several very good chances, closest of which was a header from a free kick that went just inches wide. Wake was again very deadly on the counter, and should have scored at least three or four more times were it not for some almost unbelievable misses and great last minute defensive plays. In theend, Wake did look the better team. They stroked the ball around extremely well, and had some very clever strikers.
This was certainly an exciting game to watch with plenty of excitement on both ends of the field. Duke came out with five defenders to start the game (Ahumada, Guren, White, Kerlew and Antoniou) and really looked to pack it in defensively. That made them pretty stingy on defense, and with Wake already being pretty tight at the back, this made for a first-half with not too many scoring chances. The game did open up in the second half, and it was Trowbridge's mistake on coming out to far that resulted in the Wake goal. From that point, Duke was trying to chase to get a goal back. Wake's hard enough to play catch-up with when you have to play with 11 men, and it just wasn't going to be possible with 10. Wake Forest scored a late goal off of a counter attack, so the 2-0 scoreline doesn't indicate how close the game was. Some of the Duke substitutions LuvDaBears mentioned seemed strange, but after talking with Coach Rennie after the game, it appeared to be injuries/fatigue that prompted the substitutions of Kerlew and Kelly. Duke seemed very concerned with the speed of Wake's attacking players (White, Moose), and by playing what looked like a 5-3-2, they seemed to match up well with Wake. Up until that first goal, it was a very evenly played match. LuvDaBears, I also agreed with White's strong match and Carroll's poor one for Wake. As for their right back (#21, 'Wiggy', who was shamlessly abused by the fans all night), he seemed to be the guy who was getting exposed at the back for Wake. What Wake does so well is find ways to move both White and Moose around the field to keep them from getting marked too tightly. They started White at left midfield and Moose at forward, and then moved White up front and Moose into a center midfield spot. When Moose played in the midfield he was much more dangerous and looked like he was able to make more forward runs (without Guren all over him). As for Duke, both Kerlew and Kramer created chances on that left flank...and as LuvDaBears said, I'm not sure how much of that was them and how much of that was the lack of Carroll. Ahumada kept this game from getting one-sided after Duke went a man-down, and Perea looked like he could always threaten when he got the ball in Wake's half of the field. Kelly was a physical presence in the middle of the midfield, as was Guren on defense before he was red-carded. Cila was pretty ineffective in the first half of the game, and was subbed out for the match right before halftime. Against a team with the athletes that Wake has, it would be hard to see Cila on the field. I had been pushing Trowbridge all year as one of the top GK's in the ACC, and he didn't do much to support me with the first goal that Duke conceded.
Hey Blue Chip...did Rennie say anything about Ian Carey? Is he hurt? I assumed he must be injured and that's why he didn't play. That probably really had a negative effect on Duke because he has good speed and he can hang with those Wake guys.
LuvDaBears, there was no comments about why Carey didn't play in the game. I think what hurt his chances of getting in a game like this was two reasons - 1) with Duke playing with five defenders, he would have had to go in either Perea or McIntosh's spots, and 2) after going a man down, they looked like they were having problems trying to find a way to get another attacking player on. Cila didn't return in the game, and Carey never came in. Knowing your feelings about Camp, you probably could have made a case of putting him in that spot. Kramer was the reserve who came in for Kerlew on the left side and gave them a spark. Noble came in for Kelly when he had to leave the game and didn't add much. Carey is going to be a tremendous player, but the only problem is that his natural position is the one that Perea occupies. At least they have a capable replacement when Perea graduates.