Yes, well you may spout the correlation/causation trope but until you provide another satisfactory causal variable mine wins because ALL economists and even most conservatives admit the stimulus was, at worst, a 'sugar pill' for those two years.
Holy ********. You're making contentions left and right (some of them awesomely absolutist) and putting the burden on the person who is questioning them? George W. Bush is a lizard-man. Prove me wrong!!!!!!
1) Yes, people who question the overwhelmingly-accepted status quo are supposed to provide the overriding evidence. That's how life works. The Papacy didn't have to show Galileo evidence that the sun revolved around the Earth, it was on him to steal Copernicus' work and show it to them. 2) George W. Bush is not reptilian because he is warm-blooded. You can verify this with his Presidential Health Report filed each year by his physician.
Exactly. Austerity and cuts is like bleeding a severely ill patient and hoping everything turns out all right. But all the talk how that is the solution to the creating more economic growth because it will create confidence - well I think there has been a realization that more is needed than that. For today's event, I would blame the euro-zone negativity. I would blame the US debt negotiations for the general negativity in the markets over the last two weeks though.
They're both a cause and effect. Recession leads to growing deficits, policymakers respond with austerity, which deepens the recession (and thus further worsens deficits).
Yes, people who question the overwhelmingly-accepted status quo are supposed to provide the overriding evidence. It was faked!
I thought we were still around 80%? As much as I hate to do this............do you have a link for that? The austerity measures are certainly not a cause of the crisis, but they're exacerbating it.
Our only hope is to finally get government involved in our economy. They'll fix it! I bet there's some crack team of government economists - the elite, the guys behind the guys behind the super committees - in a bunker somewhere planning to rescue us from ourselves. We need to go to Defcon Norris, 1932 mode, so that we can be pulled back from the edge of the abyss by 2025 or so.
Not speaking for the original poster, but austerity measures are a reaction to the economic crisis, not the cause. Likewise, austerity measures are not helping to pull us out of the crisis. This is not so much a double dip recession as one long period of very slow growth. Everybody feels it as a recession, no doubt. But unlike all post-45 recessions, this recession was caused by outside factors. The 2002 and 2008 recessions were caused by a market bubble and a housing bubble, whereas all post-WWII recessions were caused by the fed slowing growth through raising interest rates. And since the government can increase demand artificially through spending, it makes no sense to impose austerity measures.
Two things about this: 1) 80% versus 100% of GDP in debt is a BFD. 100% of our GDP in debt is psychologically unnerving, even if the economic fundamentals were sound (which they're not). 2) When it comes to the point that Timon is posting links to prove a certain someone wrong on the facts, perhaps it's time for that certain someone to realize his/her fallibility.
So this morning the headline was Asian Panic! Crisis Deepens! 3hrs later US job figures provide relief to markets So the value of UK equities depends on reports of US job figures The markets are so clever
I think that all worldwide stock markets should close for 12 hours following any major economic or international-political news, a la TARP failure or 9/11 or the Greece bailouts. Because markets are imperfect if they work on imperfect information, and it just seems like people are responding to fear or hope or other irrational emotions rather than the cold, hard, analysis with lots of information. Seriously, we got a 500-point slide off of this?: 1) MDC debt - US, Japan, PIIGS...these debt problems, far from being "news" yesterday, have been around for a while. Why did they cause panic yesterday, of all days? 2) Jobs reports - adding 117k jobs is not great, but if the anticipation of that news was so stunning, where was the 900-point slide last month? 3) The deficit-reduction bill - again, in the works for months, passed three days ago. Why yesterday? Did all the brokers get together, take a bunch of downers, and let 'er rip after lunch break?
It's the computers, silly. One big firm makes a big move based on some insider information, and that triggers a whole lot of pain. Then, the talking heads try to guess what happened. What happened is people that run companies have made a lot more money moving the jobs that make things Americans used to buy overseas, and the credit that middle class Americans used to buy those things is gone, and the manufacturing companies have not yet "decoupled" their manufacturing markets from the "consumption" markets, so when the US gets a cold... What this has to do with debt I'm unsure of, although we *do* owe other people a lot of money, as individuals and as a nation. Perhaps people are worried that we won't raise income through taxes, which is the basis of our debt rating. People lend the US government money because they think we can raise enough income to pay them back.
Evidently, 117,000 jobs is about 30,000 below population growth. Not a perfect comparison, but it IS below replacement.
Fair enough - I hadn't checked the number in a while. The markets just recognize that the US is paramount Clever, clever markets! So you think the sell-off yesterday was due to one firm's insider trading? Oooook.
The logical thing is to force the lenders to take significant hair cuts. I mean, the risk is why they get to charge interest, right? So now that risk is coming home to roost. The only reasons that's pretty much impossible are political reasons, not economic reasons.
So how are our T-bond interest rates doing? Even with the down grade I imagine fearful investors are still running to the safety of the US bonds, at least the short term bonds. Here is Friday http://www.treasury.gov/resource-ce...interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield I wonder what they will be on Monday.