I'm not really sure I understand what's going on anymore, but I reworked the numbers. Hopefully they're close this time. 77.4 77.5 78.0 77.2 74.1 71.2 73.6 74.3 78.8 76.9 67.8 81.3 78.6 85.2 78.9 80.6 67.9 68.8 75.1 71.4 74.8 79.3 (If you want, I can just send you the spreadsheet I made out, and you won't have to keep soliciting me for information when you find out I've screwed up.)
I disagree, but I will take you at your word that your view is strong enough not to waste our time trying to convince you of it. Magee looked impressive to me when he was performing well. He is a player who has great vision and knows where to cut and where to pass. Physically, he is not impressive, but that's not how I necessarily judge soccer players. As for TT, I can't believe people don't think he is good on the MLS level. It's just a question of his ability internationally and his ability relative to other great players. Yes it is. I think there is a reason for that. Obviously you don't need my permission to keep trying a more rigorous analysis, so OK. It's a natural human to try to make subjective things objective, but I doubt that your endeavor will be any more productive than similar efforts in economics.
Thanks for helping with the data collection, Chris. Unfortunately, the news is a little disappointing. There is an outlier in our data. Over the past three seasons, Dallas has had an usually low save percentage. As a result, we can not (yet) conclude that there is a statistically significant correlation between offsides calls and save percentage. Our best guess is that there's a pretty strong negative correlation, but the data has too much additional scatter. If we do proceed as if the correlation is real, then the best-guess formula is: SAVE % = 81.0 - 1.5 x #Offsides per game That means that if you pull one successful offsides trap per game, your expected save percentage is 79.5%. If you don't pull any, it's 81.0%. (If we ignore the Dallas data, then the effect appears twice as big, and the result is highly significant ... however, that reasoning is a bit sketchy.) Let's pretend for a moment that this 1.5% is gospel truth. That gives us the following offside-adjusted ratings for 2001-03 ... 1. Metros +4.17% (Howard, Walker) 2. San Jose +2.31% (Cannon, Onstad) 3. Fire +1.93% (Thornton) 4. Crew +1.61% (Presthus, Busch) 5. LA +1.24% (Hartman) 6. NE -0.61% (Sommer, Brown) 7. DC -0.78% (Rimando, Ammann) 8. KC -1.28% (Meola) 9. Colorado -1.61% (Garlick) 10. Dallas -6.05% (Jordan, Countess) That is to say, the Metros saved 4.17% more shots than you would've expected from their offsides numbers. A few more points: -- In addition to the numbers above, the 2001 Fusion were at +2.78%, and the 2001 Mutiny were at -5.65% ... note that those numbers are more scattered. -- If we hadn't adjusted for offsides, the Metros would still be #1, but their lead would be less dramatic. The Crew would be #2, and the Revs would be #9. -- In a couple of cases (Rimando at DC, Brown at NE), the current keeper has put up markedly better numbers than his predecessor. In other cases, there doesn't appear to be much difference. Afraid I don't have time to go into more detail. Hope this is interesting, and thanks again.
Dude, it doesn't look like anybody cares about the results. Bummer. So what could be the reasons for the outlier and the subsequent failure of the study? 1. The entire offsides-save percentage thing is either wrong or at least incomplete. 2. Matt Jordan and D.J. Countess have been extraordinarily bad goalkeepers (?). This is all I can come up with. I'm sure you have much better answers. I thought the results were pretty good even if they're not significant.
P.S. You still think Tony Meola's been the worst keeper in MLS this year? Because it looks to me like Countess and Jordan have that role pretty much locked up.
Just figured id work up the stats for 2000 using the save % formula Beineke proposed. 2000 DC - 127 - 68.3% Met - 134 - 79.7% Mia - 123 - 74.1% NE - 118 - 71.7% Chi - 95 - 71.0% Cbs - 63 - 74.1% Dal - 86 - 73.8% TB - 129 - 77.5% Col - 94 - 74.8% KC - 78 - 83.6% LA - 100 - 77.4% SJ - 137 - 79.0% expected sv% - sv % - diff - primary keeper Cbs - 78.8% - 74.1% - -4.7% Dougherty KC - 77.3% - 83.6% - 6.3% - Meola Dal - 76.7% - 73.8% - -2.9% - Jordan Col -76.6% - 74.8% - -1.8% - Kramer Chi - 76.4% - 71.0% - -5.4% - Thornton LA - 76.3% - 77.4% - 1.1% - Hartman TB - 76.0% - 77.5% - -1.5% - Garlick DC - 75.0% - 68.3% - -6.7% - Presthus NE - 75.4% - 71.7% - -3.7% - Causey Mia - 75.2% - 74.1% - -1.1% - Rimando Met - 74.7% - 79.7% - 5.0% - Amman SJ - 74.5% - 79.0% - 4.5% - Cannon Beineke, youll notice that Cannon's team in 2000 had the most number of successful offside traps and Cannon outperformed expectations by a pretty wide margin. Meanwhile Presthus's team featured the most disappointing performance that season according to the number of offside traps pulled. Id expect players to have some inconsistency in their performance in terms of save percentage as its quite possible to have a bad year. Likewise its quite possible to have a career year.
Hey Lurking, I got different numbers than you for TB and Chicago, can I ask what your equations for those two were?
Math mistake on my part. Should be: 2000 DC - 127 - 68.3% Met - 134 - 79.7% Mia - 123 - 74.1% NE - 118 - 71.7% Chi - 95 - 72.7% Cbs - 63 - 74.1% Dal - 86 - 73.8% TB - 129 - 80.4% Col - 94 - 74.8% KC - 78 - 83.6% LA - 100 - 77.4% SJ - 137 - 79.0% expected sv% - sv % - diff - primary keeper Cbs - 78.8% - 74.1% - -4.7% Dougherty KC - 77.3% - 83.6% - 6.3% - Meola Dal - 76.7% - 73.8% - -2.9% - Jordan Col -76.6% - 74.8% - -1.8% - Kramer Chi - 76.4% - 72.7% - -3.7% - Thornton LA - 76.3% - 77.4% - 1.1% - Hartman TB - 76.0% - 80.4% - 4.4% - Garlick DC - 75.0% - 68.3% - -6.7% - Presthus NE - 75.4% - 71.7% - -3.7% - Causey Mia - 75.2% - 74.1% - -1.1% - Rimando Met - 74.7% - 79.7% - 5.0% - Amman SJ - 74.5% - 79.0% - 4.5% - Cannon
I want to thank you guys for this inciteful debate on Doug Warren's performances in MLS and how it can impact his standing with the U23 team. Good stuff, really compelling and on topic.
Anything for Doug, Sandon. Today's stats: 1 goal conceded. 6 saves 6/7 shots blocked, 85.7% 0 metros offsides.
Again, I apologize for not having much time to write. The reason for the lack of significance is simple ... there are other things going on in the data, apart from the offsides. When I fit a statistical model, it has no way of knowing that Tim Howard is an exceptional shot-stopper, or that the 2001 Mutiny were a defensive disaster, or that the Burn have had ongoing problems with goalkeeping and/or defense. It's an encouraging sign that the model has figured these things out. I believe that there are other effects that our model doesn't take into account. To return to an earlier point of discussion, the Metros have recently become a counterattacking, defense-oriented team. Their save percentage is still high, but their shooting percentage has become miserable. The 2000 Earthquakes also had a high save percentage but a disastrous shooting percentage. IMO, a team that bunkers will improve its save percentage but suffer offensively.
Why assume the model has failed? Assuming that their are differences in shot stopping you would expect there to be a certain amount of variation that wouldnt conform to a model based on a statistic that doesnt take that into account. In other words, maybe the problem with the model is that Howard is extremely good (which I think we all know is true) and Jordan and Countess are really really bad.
Anybody who saw the game yesterday want to ring in on his performance? And if you guys are going to start talking about other players MLS goalie stats who are not U-23 then please move it to an MLS board.
We've been discussing the stats for a reason: to see what they suggest about DJ Countess and over-age keepers as candidates for an Olympic Finals squad. This subject is directly relevant to Warren's U-23 hopes. In order to make sense of the numbers, you've got to explore them in depth. That's what we've been doing. As a result, this has been one of the rare BigSoccer conversations that actually generates new information. We've seen that once you adjust for the offside trap, most MLS keepers look pretty similar. Exceptions are Howard (good) and Jordan/Countess (bad). That has big implications for the Olympic credentials of DJ and Doug, especially if Warren continues to look like a qualified stand-in for Rimando. --- In this forum, we have a weekly "U-23's in MLS" thread. Isn't that the place for discussing single-game performances?
Whatever. Your guys' posts turned into a circle jerk that had no relation to DJ or Warren (who the thread is about because his new starting job could really shake up the U-23 side) after one page of it.
Warren was effective for DC. He made some great saves, but was beaten at close range by a flash header from Magee. Maybe he should have came off his line, but that was the one thing he let slip by all day. I still think however, the Olympic keeper should be overage. It worked so well for us in Australia, (semifinalists remember?) and I think Timmy's getting the nod. Howard didn't play last time, but he is showing very well at Man United. I'd love to see him compete at the Oly level, while captaining the US. My 2 Keepers Howard Countess
But remember, the ONLY reason we had an overage 'keeper the last time is because Adin Brown AND Chris Armas got hurt. If Brown hadn't gotten hurt, he and Tim Howard would have been the GKs in Sydney, period. And, if Armas hadn't gotten hurt, there wouldn't have been an opening for an overage player. If there had been no overage opening, Howard likely would have played all the games with Matt Napolean serving as his backup. And, as I covered earlier, DJ Countess is ALREADY more experienced in MLS than Howard, Brown and Napolean were at the start of the 2000 Olympics, and he's only going to get more experienced between now and the start of the Athens Games. If Warren keeps playing like he has so far, he'll likely be a starter, or at least sharing playing time, somewhere. A lot depends on Rimando's health, if other 'keepers (like Brown) go to Europe, and expansion, but odds are he'll play somewhere so, between the rest of this year and whatever he gets next year, he will likely be at least as experienced as Brown and Napolean and perhaps as, or more, experienced than Howard was/were four years ago. So, if that level of experience was good enough four years ago and these GKs are MORE experienced than that level, I don't see us using an overage slot on a GK.
Stats If you want to look at Stats, look at INternational games and experience and playing results with the team that will go to Athens. If you do that, no-one and I mean no-one even comes close to Countess and what he has accomplished. Sandonmybutt has it right, Countess and Warren will be going to Athens!
Lee Harvey, when you told that story about your friend and the cow... I want to party with you guys. It's not that hard to keep a thread on topic. Now back to topic, if Warren and DJ are healthy next season I definitely agree with Sandon that there won't be an overage goalie heading to Athens. The interesting question is which of the two will be the starter because Warren will be getting major PT now that we know Nick is out for a while.
Re: Stats Well of course Countess has the most international experience, hes been an automatic starter in the past. Of course Id bet Spiteri in Portland had more international experience then Saunders (who I dont think has appeared with the Youth Nats) and Saunders posted a better GAA at Portland by over a half goal with a much better save %.