Doug Warren (r)

Discussion in 'Youth National Teams' started by Sandon Mibut, Sep 26, 2003.

  1. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    U23 goalkeeper Doug Warren made his MLS debut Thursday night when starting GK Nick Rimando got hurt and had to leave late in the game.

    Warren was credited with only play 12 minutes though he also played about six minutes of stoppage time. He made about 5 saves, some of them very good, came out and handled or punched away a couple of crosses, one of them in tight traffic, and showed nice distribution skills.

    With the Metros desparately pushing forward for a goal, Warren showed a lot of composure for someone making his MLS debut. He kept the sheet clean and helped United preserve a 2-0 win.

    The exact extent of Rimando's injury is not immediately known but early speculation is he did his knee, which would mean Warren would get a lot of playing time down the stretch. It's sad for Rimando but certainly good for Warren and his standing with the U23.

    DJ is still the No. 1 guy but this opportunity could give him a boost towards unseating Countess. Regardless, it makes our U23 team that much better.
     
  2. lurking

    lurking Member+

    Feb 9, 2002
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Warren looked very good. Confident, in control of his box and communicating with his defenders. It would be a shame if the starting job was just given to Countess without a competition, as I havent been impressed with his command of his area or his demeaner.

    Not saying Warren is better, just that I dont see why people would automaticly conclude that Countess is superior.

    Id also like to see Saunders get a look, but I dont see that happening if both Warren and DJ are getting MLS time and he isnt.
     
  3. beineke

    beineke New Member

    Sep 13, 2000
    It's easy to check this on MLSnet ... 4 saves, 3 catches/punches. For some keepers, that's a full night of work.

    By the way, if the San Diego Chivas deal goes through, you can bet they'll try to pick up Nick Rimando. That would give Warren a great chance to become DC's #1.

    One last point: even if Warren isn't good enough beat out Countess, it's great that he's getting to see the field. If we qualify for Athens and have two experienced U-23 keepers, Myernick will have more flexibility in choosing over-age players. I still tend to think that he'd choose an over-age keeper, but who knows?
     
  4. michael greene

    Oct 31, 2002
    I don't want to read too much into one appearance, but I've never been overly impressed with DJ, so any competition he gets for the job is a good thing.

    Warren was stellar, and best of all, he commanded his area. He put Clark (I think) down going for a high ball. Good decisions on crosses, and a nice punch. Came outside the box once or twice to beat NJ to the ball and handled the chances cleanly. Wasted time like a veteran, too.

    We'll see how he does with a start on Sunday. For a young keeper, it might be easier to rush off the bench and rely on adrenaline for 15 minutes. Facing 90, even against a team that is folding like NJ, is another matter.
     
  5. FlashMan

    FlashMan Member

    Jan 6, 2000
    'diego
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Just to concur with everyone that Warren was quite impressive, in all facets of the game (except a few nervous kicks which went straight out of bounds; i'll subscribe it to a small case of hurried nerves).

    If Rimando is out for the year with an ACL, Warren will definitely be battle-tested down the stretch run and then the playoffs for DC. A tough - but great - way to break into MLS.
     
  6. gnk

    gnk Member

    Nov 1, 2000
    Rockville, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Re: Doug Warren (r)

    I thought about that too. However, who would he choose in goal from the over age GK's that is a significant upgrade from Countess AND whose team would let him go. I think you can forget about any Euro-based GK b/c theit teams will not let them go. That leaves MLS goalkeepers. Which MLS goalkeepers are significant upgrades from Countess? Adin Brown, but he has already been to the Olympics (but did not play); Rimando? I don't consider him much of an upgrade, and with his recent injury, he may not even be available; Johnny Walker maybe a choice. Joe Cannon? Zack?
     
  7. beineke

    beineke New Member

    Sep 13, 2000
    Re: Re: Re: Doug Warren (r)

    Actually, Brown missed the 2000 Olympics due to injury. I think he'd be an excellent choice. I also wouldn't write off Howard or Keller. If either keeper loses his starting job, he could become available. After all, it's happened before -- to Friedel at the 2000 Olympics and Keller at the 2002 Gold Cup.
     
  8. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    Take this to the bank: Mooch will not use an overage spot on a GK. Warren getting a bunch of minutes only underscores this but DJ is seen as someone who can be really special once he gets some experience - I tend to agree - and Mooch will sink or swim with him.

    DJ has already played more in MLS than Tim Howard or Adin Brown (or Nick Rimando or Matt Napolean) did before the Sydney Games. And, he'll get more experience next year.

    Also, DJ is one of the leaders on the U23 team, a Bradenton alum whose also been arounds the 81s with the U20 team or MLS (Davis) and many of the 83s and 84s either at Bradenton (Convey), MLS (Stone, Johnson) or with the 23s.

    He is part of the chemistry of that team and he won't be dropped, especially with all the experience he'll have by July of 04.

    Having said that, I don't think it's impossible that Doug either beats him out or plays well enough that there would be a rotation of sorts. DJ has always been ahead of Doug with the 20s and 23s, but a lot can happen with a player's development once he start playing professionally and I wouldn't be at all surprised if Warren's deveopment accelerated to the point where he is even with DJ.
     
  9. gnk

    gnk Member

    Nov 1, 2000
    Rockville, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Re: Re: Re: Doug Warren (r)

    You are right about Adin missing the Olympics. I went to the qualifers in Hershey and was impressed with Adin Brown but I always forget that he got injured and hence Friedel was called in (b/c, apparently, Tim H was not viewed as ready for that level. how times have changed in a relatively short period).
     
  10. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    Re: Re: Re: Doug Warren (r)

    You know, I haven't seen Adin Brown much this year, but his stats don't really bear this out. Brown has a very mediocre save percentage (67.8) this year, compared to DJ's 65.6%, and their C/P's are very close (3.77 and 3.67, respectively). Additionally, although the Burn have given up the most goals this year, the Revolution are number 2. Adin Brown may look big and impressive, but he's not been nearly as good this year as last year.
     
  11. beineke

    beineke New Member

    Sep 13, 2000
    Re: Re: Re: Re: Doug Warren (r)

    I wish we understood the meaning of those keeper statistics a bit better. For now, the ones that make the most sense to me are these:

    Revs:
    w Brown 7-6-8 1.46 GAA
    w Reis 0-3-1 2.20 GAA

    Burn:
    w Countess 4-14-3 2.07 GAA
    w Cassar 1-2-1 1.65 GAA
     
  12. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Doug Warren (r)

    Well let me help you out a bit. Before the last game, Cassar's record and GAA were worse than D.J.'s (0-2-1, 2.158). Maybe you think it's fair not differentiating Burn under Jeffries to the Burn under Colin Clarke, but I think we'll need more than one game to be sure.

    And how about this: except for D.J. Countess, there isn't a starter in MLS with a worse GAA than Adin Brown. This despite the fact that Adin Brown is number seven in the league in shots faced. D.J. has faced 39 more shots than Adin, 33% more.

    Likewise, Brown's save percentage is the second worst of any starter in the league. Yet again the only guy he's leading is the rookie on the worst team in the league. Brown's win-loss record may look impressive, but unless you think he's somehow contributing to the Revs scoring 12 more goals than the Burn (better than 40% more), I don't think it really applies here. The only reason Reis's is so bad is that he's been clearly the worst goalie in MLS this year, barely stopping half the shots he faces.

    Hope that helped.
     
  13. Martin Fischer

    Martin Fischer Member+

    Feb 23, 1999
    Kampala. Uganda
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Save percentage is the best of goalie statistics, but there are too many variables involved to rely on it as a mark of quality. GAA is a team statistic and has little to do with the keeper.

    You have to watch the games to determine who is best. In the games I have seen, Aiden Brown has been excellent. But I have not seen enough games to judge. Luckily I am sure Bruce Arena and Mooch don't have that problem.
     
  14. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    Here's the deal: If Adin hadn't gotten hurt in '00, the US would have used two U23 GKS - Howard and Brown. And, like they did in qualifying, they likely would have alternated.

    So, it's not unprecedented to think that we'd go to the Olympics without using an overage 'keeper.

    Also, DJ Countess has more games today than Tim, Adin or Matt Napolean (the alternate who traveled to Athens as an emergency player) did before the start of the Athens games. DJ is already more experienced than they were and he has the rest of this season and most of the next one to get more experienced.

    Through 2000, Howard hade played in 19 MLS games, 1626 minutes. He'd made 82 saves and had a 1.45 g.a.a.

    Brown, who was a rookie in 2000, had played 13 games, 1,146 minutes, made 72 saves and had 2.04 g.a.a.

    Through 2000, Matt Napolean had played 14 games, 1,166 minutes, made 63 saves and had a 2.16 ERA.

    This year, DJ has played in 21 games, 1913 minutes, made 101 saves and has a 2.07 g.a.a. He also played one game last year, 100 minutes, giving up 1 goal and making six saves.

    So, if Brown, Howard and Napolean were experienced enough, before Brown's injury, to not need an overage 'keep, than Countess should be too as he is already more experienced than any of them and, as I said, has the rest of this year and the first five months of next season.

    Further, if Rimando turns out to be seriously injured, as feared, and Warren plays the rest of this season and then gets some games next year, he will be as experienced as Brown and Napolean and will have a chance (if, say, Rimando is lost to expansion) to be more experienced than Howard.

    So, again, I just don't see the Mooch using an overage GK in Athens.
     
  15. goal123

    goal123 New Member

    Jul 4, 2002
    DJ has been very impressive all year. He has made some tremendous saves. I would agree it is hard to look only at GAA statistics as DJ has been hung out to dry for the majority of the goals scored. He has faced 8 penalty kicks !!! (He saved the last two) As far as the Olympics, DJ has over 60 caps with the National teams and his experience will be a big asset. He has made some incredible saves this year and his reflexes are unmatched by any keepers I have seen.
     
  16. beineke

    beineke New Member

    Sep 13, 2000
    Definitely, too many variables. (Hey Voros, time to bust out the multiple regression! ;))

    In 2002, Brown and Reis were both over 70%. In 2003, Brown is down to 68% and Reis to 59% (ignoring 2 Pk's). Why the downturn? Most likely, it's because the Revs have stopped playing with two holding midfielders.

    Last season, the Revs began the season with only one holding mid. Jurgen Sommer was the starter and only saved 61% of opposing shots on goal.

    Considering that Sommer and Reis have been solid keepers for MLS other teams, it's pretty clear that the problem isn't the goalkeeping. It's the defense. In fact, judging Brown's numbers against the other Revs' keepers', he looks mighty good.
     
  17. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    This is pretty disingenuous. Last year, Brown's save percentage was 70.6. The year before, on the Mutiny, he was at 64%. On the Rapids, he was at 68.6%. The year before, he was just barely above 70% again.

    I think it's pretty generous to say that Reis has been a solid keeper. Like Adin, his career save % is below 70, even excepting this season. Do you think it's just bad luck that he's never been able to hold down a starting job? Sommer was a little better, but if he was such a quality keeper, where is he today? He's still only 33, which we all know isn't that old for a keeper, but he's out of the league.

    The fact is, except for last year Brown's stats have never been exceptionally good, and they are down significantly from last year (to be honest, only his C/P's were great last year). And, if you're going to blame Brown's poor stats on the defenses he's been behind, you can't blame Countess's stats on his failings as a keeper. You can't attack one for his high GAA and then excuse the other because his defense is terrible, when the first plays behind an even worse team.
     
  18. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    The problem with this is similar to the problem with watching batters in baseball to find out who is the best. Can you really tell the difference between a .300 batter and a .330 batter in a few games? That's just three more hits per 100 at-bats, but it's a huge difference in quality. Likewise, Can you tell the difference between a 68% and a 73% keeper? That's just one more goal per 20 shots, which would take about four games to see. Considering variation, you're not even going to be sure (or even confident) that the player who performed the best over those games is actually the better goalie.

    I appreciate that it's necessary to watch games, but watching games just supports different biases, it doesn't eliminate them. Adin Brown is a very impressive looking keeper, because he's huge, he's intimidating, he commands the area, and he's able to make saves with his size that smaller goalies simply couldn't make. But, statistically, he's not that great looking, and I think that that fact needs to be considered along with how Adin looks during games.
     
  19. beineke

    beineke New Member

    Sep 13, 2000
    Why do you round certain numbers but not others? Talk about disingenuous! Brown has been consistently right on 70%, apart from his time with the Mutiny, a team that was much worse than the 2003 Burn.

    His career percentage is pretty close to 70% ... and this season it's in the 50's. You're just nit-picking.

    Any keeper who starts ahead of Kevin Hartman for half a season is solid.

    Do you realize that MLS back-up keepers are paid $24K a year?

    Give me a break. The guy's never played behind a strong defense. This year, his save percentage has dropped from 71% to 68%. And these numbers have a plus-minus of, what, 10%? Dropped significantly?
     
  20. beineke

    beineke New Member

    Sep 13, 2000
    You make solid points, but the follow-up question is where do we want over-age players? Clearly, we're pretty happy with our forwards, and it isn't clear where we're likely to get a pay-off from an over-age midfielder.

    That leaves the back line, where we probably do need help. But we also have some promising options. Suppose that Myernick decides on a 4-4-2 with Convey at left back and Onyewu at right center back. He adds Hejduk at right back, as well as the best left center back available. Who's the third trump card?
     
  21. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    Fair enough.

    Brown's career percentage is 68%, but admittedly the Mutiny number hurts him a bit. But even a 70% mark is not good.

    It's in the 50's but he's only played four games. I don't think you can make any conclusions based on 19 shots faced.


    Yeah, the numbers range from about 65 to maybe 77%, at least for keepers who ought to be in the league. Howard was at 76.3 this year before he left. I don't really understand what your point is; a .030 point drop seems pretty significant inside that range to me. But, admittedly, I'm not the statistician you are, and you can chalk this up to random variation. But Adin's never had a save percentage above 70.6, which does not, to me, signify a keeper who deserves an overage slot in the olympics.
     
  22. beineke

    beineke New Member

    Sep 13, 2000
    I think you're fixating too much on these percentages, when things are actually much more subtle. For instance, Johnny Walker has a save percentage for the Metrostars that's very close to Tim Howard's. But before Walker arrived, the Metros had scored 25 goals in 15 games. Since then, they've scored only 9 goals in 10 games.

    What's changed? The Metro midfield has gotten conservative. They no longer have Tim Howard to bail them out, so they take up more defensive positions. That makes it harder for the opponent to get a clear shot, so Walker's save percentage is still pretty good. But Howard was able to put up the same numbers with less defenders nearby.

    In the past two years, this is New England's record with/without Adin Brown.
    Adin Brown 16-12-9
    Reis/Sommer 3-11-2

    Coupled with my positive impressions of Adin's play, I find these numbers pretty convincing.
     
  23. beineke

    beineke New Member

    Sep 13, 2000
    Suppose that Adin's actual save percentage was 70%; that is, each shot he faces, he has a 70% chance of saving.

    In 2002, he faces 102 shots on goal. How many will he save? The answer (at 95% confidence) is somewhere between 60 and 82.

    That is to say, it wouldn't be especially surprising for him to stop as few as 60.8% of the shots he faces, or as many as 78.4%.

    This suggests that much of the variation among keepers' save percentages is due to random fluctuations, not due to their actual ability to stop shots.
     
  24. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    This is a very interesting argument. A question still remains for me, though. Exactly what is Adin Brown providing, besides goal-stopping ability and command of the box, which are pretty much covered by GAA and C/P's? Admittedly, the win-losses are pretty convincing, but what about Brown makes him a good goalkeeper for whom his team can confidently attack?


    Although your Metros analysis is superficially appealing, I did a little research and I'm not sure I can agree with it. The Metrostars have given up 365 shots this year, and have taken 347. I don't know what you think, but I'd say those are pretty good measures of how offensively or defensively a team has been playing. It's the best I can think of offhand. So, by my calculations, the Metrostars have taken 147 shots with Walker in goal, 41 with Grafer in goal, and therefoe 159 with Howard in goal. Meanwhile, they have given up 147 with Walker in goal, 25 with Grafer in goal, and therefore 193 with Howard in goal.

    Since I hope we can both agree that Grafer isn't any good, if we look at Howard and Walker's stats, we get 10.6 for/12.87 against (Howard), versus 14.7 for and 14.7 aginst (Walker). Maybe you would want to say that, because that Howard faces 2.3 more shots per game than the metros take, while the numbers are even for Walker, that means that they are playing less defense and trusting Howard to take care of them. However, they're taking more shots and allowing more shots with Walker, which seems to imply that they are playing a more offensive, up and down game.

    Although these stats don't really disprove your conclusion, I don't think they support it either.
     
  25. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    Thanks, I appreciate your help here. However, I think that two standard deviations is way too broad for this case. What were the goalie's odds of putting up a 60.8% or worse? 5% or less. So, in 20 seasons, longer than most people's careers, he'll do that about once. One standard deviation would be a lot more realistic for a guy who's played four years (unfortunately, I don't know how to do the math).

    I agree with you, though, that we can put part of Adin's save percentage this year off to random fluctuation. However, even without this year, Brown's career save percentage is still only 68.4. Even Excluding his half season with the mutiny, it's only 70.1%. He does not, by the best measure I have available, have good shot stopping ability.
     

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