Does a 10 year deal with Apple mean what MLS is in 2023 is what it will be for the long term?

https://theathletic.com/3365616/2022/06/14/mls-media-rights-deal-facts/

MLS has the potential to increase revenue throughout this deal.

 

Viewers can only watch the championship match on Apple TV?
Would unvision be showing the MLS cup?

 

We don't know yet the details for MLS Cup. At this point Apple TV has the English and Spanish rights to the league broadcasts. But MLS also says that they are still trying to add additional broadcast coverage so Univision might be part of that.

 

I'd sure hope there's English broadcasts for all the games; I can't stand the Spanish broadcasters. Seems like it according to that Athletic article. What will this mean for the local sports bar? If they don't subscribe to this MLS-specific service, then the casuals will never see a game on TV. I guess negotiations are ongoing for ESPN and others to still be able to broadcast some games.

This is a cool option. I've always had this idea of allowing independent podcasters to commentate games. Imagine if you could upload yourself doing so and have that be a choice on Apple TV.

Something not mentioned in the article but somewhat related is the rumors that Apple will purchase Manchester United. I found that out when my Man U. stock spiked one day (thank you Apple!). They're making all kinds of investments in sport it seems.

 

Every game on Apple will be available in English and Spanish.

ESPN is no longer in the running to carry games. FOX has purchased the right to simulcast games in the US in both English and Spanish. The Univision channels will only carry the Leagues Cup.

https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-...evisaunivision-tsn-rds-reach-multi-year-deals

No one knows if bars will be able to show Apple only games.

 

Hard to imagine MLS getting to whatever the threshold is... There needs to be 2.5 million MLS Season pass subscribers for apple to break even on subscriptions alone. My guess is we will know we are under that unless MLS starts crowing about exceeding it. Apple must be expecting serious growth in the number of MLS fans willing to pay a subscription to watch.

 

MLS Season Pass is worldwide though.....2.5M subs should be attainable.

 

I think it's pretty unlikely that we'll get hard figures for the MLS viewership, but this was at least some good news.

https://www.inquirer.com/soccer/apple-mls-season-pass-eddy-cue-20230601.html

"We’re off to a great start with subscriptions and viewership," Apple's senior vice president of services Eddy Cue said. "We’re certainly doing much better than we had forecasted.”

 

That's an interesting wrinkle to consider as well! The article is from June 1st, a full week before Messi made his intentions known to the world.

It's encouraging to know that Apple was positive about the subscription numbers before the inevitable Messi explosion.

Under the current CBA, the salary cap was tied to the league's media revenue for the first time. So at the very least, even though there's no guarantee we'll ever see ratings or subscription numbers, one would assume the league is in some form legally required to publish the income it generates each year from their Apple deal.

"Per terms of the CBA, in 2023 and 2024, players will receive 12.5 percent of the net increase in media revenue for anything more than $100 million above the league’s 2022 media compensation. The players’ media revenue share will jump to 25 percent in 2025 through the expiration of the CBA following the 2027 season. That money goes directly into the salary cap and general allocation money."

https://theathletic.com/3365616/2022/06/14/mls-media-rights-deal-facts/?access_token=1713643

 

Yeah, I agree with your sentiment. The league likely won't generate a significant amount of extra revenue from this TV deal, but we'll nonetheless get a picture for how many eyeballs are watching through the numbers that the league reports to the MLSPA.

But MLS is uniquely situated to benefit from Messi in that the AppleTV deal is global so I'm also not counting out the possibility of a big jump in revenue. There's clearly a scenario where Season Pass subs go up by 10-20x. Only time will tell.

 

Interesting discussion.

I do not agree with the OP's premise, however.

First off, 10 years is not an exceedingly long deal for MLS. The two prior deals were for 8 years apiece.

I think the goal is to be the premier non-big 5 (ENG, Spain, GER, ITA, FRA) soccer league in the world by the end of this Apple deal. By some metrics, MLS is already there.

I. Prior TV Deals

1996-1998: ESPN, ABC. No rights fees. But league did get a piece of ad revenue. Spanish via Univision & Galavision.

1999-2006. More of the same. Spanish TV had been held by Univision and Galavision, but they dropped in 1999. Telemundo in 2000-2001. ESPN/ABC only in 2002. Fox Sports/Espanyol in 2003.

2007-2014. First rights deal. 8 years. ESPN. $8 mil a year. Univision/SUM also got a deal, which included MLS & USNT matches, 8 years, $80 mil. I believe in 2006. So roughly $18 mil a year, though $10 was with SUM.

IDK what the Canadian deals were for TFC.

2015-2022. Another 8 year deal. ESPN/Fox Sports in English. Univision in Spanish. English = $75 mil per season, Spanish $15 mil per, Canada $15 mil per. $105 mil per season total.

2023-2032. Global deal with Apple TV. $250 mil a year.

But there are also still regular TV deals in place.

2023-2026, USA. Fox/FS1/Deportes.
2023-2026, Canada, TSN/RDS.

I do not think the figures for those deals are known.

While it is certainly a huge jump from nothing, to $18 mil a year, to $105 mil a year, to $250 mil (plus 2 more deals) a year, the number of teams has also gone up.

No fees: 1996-2006. 10, 12. Then 10, then 12.
$18 mil per: 2007-2014. 13 to 19.
$105 mil per: 2015-2022. 20 to 28.
$250+ mil per: 29 to 30 & beyond?

I think this TV deal will cover the likely final round of expansion (30, 32, 36, whatever).

I do not think it is realistic to be able to compete with the EPL, La Liga, or Bundesliga in this time frame. But Ligue 1 (Fra) or Serie A (Ita) is not completely unrealistic.

By most metrics, MLS is already a top 10 (ish) league in the world.

II. League Attendance

Attendance (Total): 10th. And this is all sports. MLB, Nippon (baseball in Japan), NHL, NBA, NFL, English Premier, IL/PCL (AAA baseball), Bundesliga, English Championship.

Average attendance: 10th. NFL, Bundesliga, EPL, Nippon, MLB, La Liga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Brazillian Serie A.

Note, they only ranked donestic leagues with over 8 mill total attendance.

If you only consider soccer leagues, then MLS is already 4th (total)/7th (average).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_attendance_figures_at_domestic_professional_sports_leagues

III. Revenue

Total revenue: 10th. NFL, MLB, NBA, EPL, NHL, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1.

Mean Average Revenue per team: 15th. NFL, MLB, EPL, NBA, La Liga, Bundesliga, NHL, Serie A, League 1; IPL (Cricket, India), Nippon (Baseball, Japan), AFL (Australian Rules Football), CSL (Chinese Soccer), Brazillian Serie A.

Soccer Leagues only:
Total revenue: 6th. Behind only Big 5.
Average revenue: 8th. Big 5 + CHN/BRA.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_professional_sports_leagues_by_revenue

Now, looking deeper than ordinal ranking, some gaps clearly appear. In terms of total revenue, MLS sits 10th at €1.479 billion. But Ligue 1 is 9th at €2.407 billion. That's a big gap to cross. But MLS is fairly comfortable in 10th, with Nippon at €1.184 bil and Brazil Serie A at €1.120 billion.

But MLS has more teams, so suffers in a ranking of (mean) average revenue per team. Down to 15th. And there is a gap here as well.

NFL: €532 million
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MLB: €349 mil
EPL: €322 mil
NBA: €318 mil
-----------
La Liga: €222 mil
Bundesliga: €200 mil
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NHL: €153 mil
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Serie A: €128 mil
Ligue 1: €120 mil
IPL Cricket: €109 mil
Nippon baseball: €99 mil
------------
AFL Aussie Football: 59.4 mil
Chinese Soccer: €59 mil
Brazillian Footy: €56 mil
MLS: €52.8 mil
RPL (Russian Soccer): €51.3 mil
Bundesliga2: €48.2 mil
Saudi Pro League: €43.4 mil

Clearly, the MLS ranks are inflated a bit on total attendance & total revenue due to having more teams. But still 10th in average attendance with Serie A & League 1 only 2k away.

In terms of mean revenue per team, MLS falls to 15th, and there is a big gap after Nippon baseball. But amongst soccer leagues, MLS still ranks 8th. Well within striking distance of 6th. And I'd note that these are 2022 numbers for the most part. Post Apple TV deal and post-Messi, I think MLS may well be right there with Brazil/China on mean average.

IV. On the Pitch & Mean v Median

I put these together because I think the same factor is at play. Due to it's unique structure in world football (salary budget, more revenue sharing, high number of teams), MLS is going to have higher total numbers and lower mean average numbers. Further, there is less divergence between the top teams and bottom in terms of spending power.

If one looks at the median team revenue, rather than the mean, MLS likely ranks a bit higher.

Similarly, If one measures league quality by how good the BEST teams are, then MLS is probably a bit behind leagues with superior teams at the top (Netherlands, Portugal, Mexico, Argentina, Belgium, Russia?, etc). However, I think the median MLS team us better than the median Portuguese team.

From an MLS point of view, Leagues Cup just proved this point. Though Liga MX has a gripe with the USA hosting all the games, MLS won the competition, had an all MLS final, and won the head to head. Lean won CCL, and I do think the cream of Mexican league teams is slightly better, the gap is closing. Seattle won CCL last year and LAFC was close this year.

And this phenomenon could also be teue for leagues at/above MLS level in some metrics. Brazil. France? Serie A?

Now, the league website had a nice article on where MLS stands in the world, and did a nice dive on the mean/median issue, based on crowdsourced transfermarket values in various league via an article in The Athletic.

MLS ranked 14 in average team value (Big 5 + Brazil, English Championship, Portugal, Nethetlands, Turkey, Russia, Belgium, Mexico, MLS, Argentina).

MLS ranked 8th in median value (Big 5, Brazil, Championship).

https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/messi/messi-in-miami-where-does-mls-stand-in-the-big-picture

I don't have data on median team revenue or median attendance, but I highly suspect a similar phenomenon.
----------------------

V. Report Card

A. Goal: Be the best non-Big 5 soccer league in the world by the end of the Apple TV deal (2032).

B. Objective Tests Achieved/Surpassed

1. Total Attendance = Check. 4th. (EPL, Bundesliga, Championship).

MLS is likely to surpass the English Championship this year and move into 3rd. The defecit was less than 100k and MLS added a 29th team and is averaging roughly +1k more per match in 2023.

2. Total Revenue = check. 6th (EPL, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1)

C. Objective Tests/Close but not Quite

1. Average (mean) Attendance = 7th (Bundesliga, EPL, La Liga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Brazil Serie A).

2022: MLS 20,978. Brazil 22,432, France 22,799. MLS 2023: 21,956.

With Messi in the league, Freedom Park opening in 2025 (25k), and SD coming in in 2025 with Snspdragon at 35k, I think MLS can hit 6th, or even 5th, very soon. Heck, it could happen THIS year if attendance drops a smidge in BRA or FRA. IDK if it is sustainable, but we were 7th pre-Messi.

2. Average (mean) Revenue per team = 8th. (EPL, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, China, Brazil).

In 2022 numbers, we were €6.2 mil behind China and €3.2 mil behind Brazil. The Apple TV deal should net around €5 mil per team ($250 mil - $105 mil = $145/29 = $5 mil; $1.07 $\€). But that does not count the Fox/Canada TV deals, nor Leagues Cup revenue, nor the fact that MLS has an extra team over the mean AND +1k attendance per game this year. Like with attendance, I think they could be 6th this year. Though other leagues (Saudi) could also be gaining.

C. Subjective Metrics

1. Median Team Value (transfermarket) = 8th (Big 5 + Brazil, English Championship).

2. Transfer Spending (Incoming), last 6/8 windows = 8th/8th (Big 5, Portugal, Russia).

3. Average Team Value (transfermarket) = 14th (Big 5 + Brazil, Championship, Portugal, Netherlands, Turkey, Russia, Belgium, Mexico).

4. Transfer selling last 6/8 windows: 14th/19th (Big 5, Championship, Portugal, Netherlands, Brazil, Belgium, Argentina, Austria, Russia/same + Turkey + 2nd tier in Esp/Ger/Ita/Fra).

5. On the Pitch: Best teams = 14th-20th?

Obviously behind = 8. ENG, ESP, GER, ITA, FRA, PORT, NED, BRA.

Probably behind = 5. MEX, ARG, BEL, TUR, RUS.
Neighborhood = SCO, GRE, JAP, AUT, URU, EGY, KOR.

6. On pitch, Median Team Quality = 7th?

Other than the Big 5 & Brazil, I think MLS is there. YMMV, of course.
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D. Totals

There = 2
Total Attendance: 4th
Total Revenue: 6th

Close/Imminent = 5
Average Attendance: 7th
Average Revenue/Team: 8th
Transfer Spending Last 6/8 windows: 8th/8th
Median Team Value (Transfermarket): 8th
Median Team Strength: 8th or so?

A little More work = 3

Average Team Value (Transfermarket): 14th
Transfer Sales last 6/8 windows: 14th/19th
Top Team Strength: 14th-20th???
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Sorry for the dissertation.

 

Saw this MLS daily news thread:

https://en.as.com/soccer/how-much-does-mls-make-from-sponsors-nfl-and-nba-lead-on-revenue-n/

MLS closing in on the NHL in terms of sponsorship revenue. $680 mil to the NHL's $750 mil. Numbers from 2022, pre-Messi.

As someone who started life as a soccer fan watching NASL with my older brother & Soccer Made In Germany on PBS, and enduring 20 years (or so) without a D1 league in the USA, I can honestly say I never thought I'd see the day.

I know it is just one metric, and there is still a long ways to go before being on par with the NHL, the Big 5 soccer leagues, or the rest of the big USA sports leagues. The Big 9.

But anyone else? MLS is right there. 10th in total revenue pre-Messi. 15th in average per team, pre-Apple deal & Messi. But really only significantly behind Japanese baseball (Nippon) and Indian Cricket.

In terms of finance, revenue, and attendance, it is a Top 12-Top 15 league in the world and comfortably inside the Top 10 in soccer.

 

Apple wants to position MLS as the best soccer league in the world after the arrival of Messi

Apple have the money, they could pump the money but you could end up creating 30 celebrity XIs with no real stakes.

 

I understand your point and think its a fair one, but can you expound upon how in MLS's case, it would be meaningfully different from the NFL and NBA? What gives those leagues a sense of stakes? Or is it just that MLS is in the unique position of being compared to European leagues that have relegation?

 

The fact the UCL is considered the gold standard. The top layer of the pyramid.

Without access to the UCL MLS will struggle to be more than a diversion in global terms.

Saudi Pro and CSL have the same issue.

I don't foresee UEFA ever allowing the Club World Cup to become the senior competition.

 

It is not really UEFA's decision, though.

I guess they could pull out? FIFA would not like that come slot allocation time at the WC.

Currently, UEFA teams send their top squads to the CWC. And usually do/did for Intercontinental or Toyota Cup as well, IIRC. They have not gotten the Olympics treatment. It is not a youth v Senior thing.

There is a lot of $$$ located outside of Europe that would like both a piece of that pie and a shot at the big boys.

Don't teams that get CWC berths get $50 mil? Or is it pounds? More for advancing/winning? That is a lot of cake by anyone's standards.