Division 3 - 2019

Discussion in 'Women's College' started by CoachJon, Jun 17, 2019.

  1. C13soccer

    C13soccer Member

    Arsenal
    United States
    Aug 30, 2018
    I’m a big fan of the Massey ratings. It’s a bit of a “black box” algorithm sure, but I’m surprised how often his rankings are an advance peek into the coach polls 2 or 3 weeks down the line.

    I wonder if the voters aren’t consulting his rankings before each week?

    Anyway, there is a boat load of interesting going on on Massey today...

    For the first time in at least 4 years, Williams is not only OUT of the T10 (#12) but they are only the third best Nescac team in the rankings!

    Also, the Nescac is not the dominant conference by representatives in the T25 with Middlebury (4) Amherst (6) and Tufts (19) the only neighbors. The Centennial conference has taken the lead with Hopkins, Swarthmore, Gettysburg, Haverford, and Dickinson at 2-11-16-22-24.

    The long dominant UAA has fallen as their only 3 reps, WashStl, Emory and Chicago, sit at 13 20 & 23. It’s been awhile since UAA didn’t have a T10 resident.

    The SoCal conf has 2 listings for the first time in years (ever?) in Pomona and Cal Lutheran - 14 & 25. Good on the Golden State!

    It will be interesting to see how the USC poll follows, or doesn’t.
     
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  2. SoccerSwattie

    SoccerSwattie Member

    Oct 17, 2016
    I agree the ranking for The Ephs seems out of whack with reality but the alogos must have picked up quantitative aspect that stuck out for them. Do you know when the USC poll is typically released??
     
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  3. C13soccer

    C13soccer Member

    Arsenal
    United States
    Aug 30, 2018
    Tuesday’s. Usually after mid day.
     
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  4. CoachJon

    CoachJon Member+

    Feb 1, 2006
    Rochester, NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #79 CoachJon, Sep 18, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2019
    I’m going to William Smith vs. Misericordia today. Right now, William Smith is No. 1 per USC, D3soccer.com, and Massey. It is great to be recognized, but just gives opponents more incentive to play better. #HeronPride.
     
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  5. PlaySimple

    PlaySimple Member

    Sep 22, 2016
    Chicagoland
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    I've posted some of my thoughts up to this point on D3soccer.com. After tonight's games I'll expand a bit on those comments both there and here. I'm most familiar with some of the teams in the Midwest, CCIW, and some of the UAA sides. I'll limit my observations to those teams.

    Tonight's big game in the Midwest is Wheaton at Wash U.
     
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  6. C13soccer

    C13soccer Member

    Arsenal
    United States
    Aug 30, 2018
    Some interesting comparisons




    ........U.S.C................................D3.................................Massey



    1 William Smith..........................“.........................................“

    2 Messiah.................................Middlebury........................Messiah

    3 Middlebury.............................Wheaton...........................Hopkins

    4 Christopher Newport..............Messiah...........................Middlebury

    5 Wheaton.................................ChrisNewport..................TCNJ

    6 Johns Hopkins........................“......................................ChrisNewport

    7 Amherst..................................TCNJ...............................Amherst

    8 St. Thomas..............................Centre.............................Wheaton

    9 Washington (Mo.).....................Williams..........................Arcadia

    10 TCNJ.....................................Amherst...........................St. Thomas
     
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  7. CoachJon

    CoachJon Member+

    Feb 1, 2006
    Rochester, NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    William Smith 0 Misericordia 0, 2OT.

    4:30 start; Very pleasant afternoon; the sun was quite low in the sky during the second half of the first half and most of the second half. It was behind the stands and clearly affected the players looking in the direction of the near sideline; however, I remember no specific instances of a player losing the ball in the sun.

    I knew Misericordia had won 2-1 last year and was very surprised at their tactical approach to the game. They did not set a low block per se, however, it was obvious the players had been instructed to kick the ball long, rather than try and control the ball and pass it out of the defensive half. This included not only the defenders but the midfielders, too. I felt Misericordia was playing to defend and counter with long balls to the forwards and maybe steal a draw or win. They got the draw.

    It took a while for WS to adjust to the tactic, and finally in the second OT every long ball by Misericordia was countered with a series of short to intermediate length passes on the ground. As a supporter of WS, I can only hope they have assimilated this lesson and apply it against future opponents. Had they been so disciplined throughout the game, WS would have won.

    Credit goes to Misericordia’s central defenders who came up with multiple blocks of good shots, taking some pressure off their keeper.

    Comparing stats from 2018 to 2019:
    2018 Goals: WS 29th, M 57th (40-yd free kick), 82nd (PK).
    2018 Shots (SOG): WS 13 (4); M 10 (3); Corners WS 7 M 3​

    2019 Shots (SOG): WS 22 (6); M 9 (1); Corners WS 7 M 3​

    Saturday William Smith is at Rochester for a 6 pm KO. It will be hot and I assume they will be playing under the lights during the second half at least. Rochester has a freshman forward, Madison Drenowatz (Grapevine, TX) who has 6 goals and 1 assist in 5 games.

    6828
     
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  8. CoachJon

    CoachJon Member+

    Feb 1, 2006
    Rochester, NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Previously I posted about the geographic distribution of D3 schools. There are 9 in Washington and Oregon together and I have the good fortune of having 7 D3 schools less than a one-hour drive from me. This fall I have been watching more live games than streamed games, even though there are some great matchups on the stream I am missing.

    I wanted to comment about a couple of the players. I’ll say that RIT’s forward Christine Cataldo-Smith (Fy, Yardley, PA) (1G, 1A) is a baller and the attacking engine of the team. She gets my nod as most fun to watch over WS’s center back Maialen Martinez (Jr, San Sebastian, Spain) (2G, 0A) only because she is a forward. Martinez is equally a baller, she defends well, cleans up the messes in the back and makes things happen when she drives forward.

    Other first-years (freshman) I have enjoyed watching are RIT’s Maddie Bullis (M, Hillsboro,OR) (2G 0A); Madison Corso (F, Honolulu, HI) (0G 2A); and Corinne Amato (M, Lake Ronkonkoma, NY) (0G 1A). Also William Smith’s Julia Berg (D, Charlottesville, VA); Katrine Berg (F, Charlottesville, VA) (0G 1A); and Seneca Blakely-Armitage (F, Ithaca, NY) (2G 1A).

    Speaking of streaming, we have some Top 25 Matchups this weekend.
    SAT 9/21:
    #11 Williams at #RV Trinity (CT), Noon ET
    #5 Wheaton at #RV Loras, 6pm ET​
    SUN 9/22:
    #4 Christopher Newport at #23 Trinity (TX), 1pm ET​

    6834
     
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  9. C13soccer

    C13soccer Member

    Arsenal
    United States
    Aug 30, 2018
    Wow! What a Saturday in T25 action!!!!!
     
  10. C13soccer

    C13soccer Member

    Arsenal
    United States
    Aug 30, 2018
    William Smith takes a draw and a loss in 3 days (Misericordia and Rochester).

    Middlebury draws at Hamilton.

    Wheaton draws during the week vs WashStl.

    Amherst loses to Connecticut College.

    St Thomas loses to Illinois Wesleyan.

    Williams loses to Trinity CT.



    Coaches polls are going to be fun to watch this week.
     
  11. DJBomb

    DJBomb Member

    Liverpool FC
    United States
    Sep 17, 2019
    Not to be picky, but Wheaton was a loss at WashU, not a draw.

    Very interesting to see the polls this week.

    Will anyone WANT to be No. 1? Seems like a cursed position this season.
     
  12. C13soccer

    C13soccer Member

    Arsenal
    United States
    Aug 30, 2018

    I think ....

    Wheaton and St Thomas will fall out of the T10 and Smith and Middlebury will drop to the 7-9 spots.

    Messiah, Hopkins, ChrisNewport will be your new top 3 (in whatever order suits you).

    Arcadia and Centre will make their first appearances in the T10.

    Williams out of the T25?
     
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  13. C13soccer

    C13soccer Member

    Arsenal
    United States
    Aug 30, 2018

    Damn! I suck at this!

    Wheaton stayed in the T10 and William Smith and Middlebury both stayed in the T5!!

    That made the Hopkins T3 prediction moot.

    Got the next two right, but big deal!!

    And Williams was my only real correct prediction.

    On the T5 - I guess the coaches polled really don’t look at strength of schedule when thy start voting, otherwise how do u explain ChrisNewport getting a 3 spot when their only T25 game to date was against current #19 Dickinson!?!? And they ended that in a draw at home!!!
     
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  14. HouseofCards

    HouseofCards Member

    Nov 26, 2012
    Rating policy dictates that a team cannot lose their place or drop in the rankings without losing a match.
     
  15. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Rating "policy"? Maybe, for somebody's policy. But rating theory says a team can lose their place or drop in the rankings without losing a match. Suppose a team ranked #10 beats #1. It could move ahead of #9, while #1 could drop but not as low as #9. In that case, #9 would drop to #10. For good rating systems, this would not be out of the question.
     
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  16. HouseofCards

    HouseofCards Member

    Nov 26, 2012
    It's the United Soccer Coaches policy. It acts as more of a guideline, as exceptions can and are made. I don't agree, but just trying to provide context for why things are the way they are.
     
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  17. Eddie K

    Eddie K Member+

    May 5, 2007
    There are a few protocols but it's more group think than anything. There is much more "what have you done lately" thinking to warrant movement in a coaches poll as opposed to a week-to-week overall evaluation, as computers or formulas would be. Always been that way with coaches vs computers rankings. The voting is actually now done electronically so there is a record and members can then be asked to explain things.

    For CNU, the 'protocol' of having the NCAA Final 4 teams in the Final 4 ranking is what got them there. Since the preseason poll is really the last year final season poll. They were given a major 'benefit of the doubt' for 2019, having lost their AA center mid, and put up as high as 4 and just have to defend that ranking.

    The CNU SOS will drop alot as they are in a weaker conference and have to play everyone twice, and 2 more teams a 3rd time. So computers will have them dropping while they are winning big in their conference. Coaches likely won't drop them though without a hiccup. You have to admire they've traveled a bit this year and last to get good non-conference games so credit to them for a D3 state school.

    FWIW - I do think the Dickinson draw should have cost them but almost all the top teams have taken some knocks.
     
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  18. C13soccer

    C13soccer Member

    Arsenal
    United States
    Aug 30, 2018
    I wonder if a draw with Lynchburg at home is a hiccup to the pollsters?
     
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  19. C13soccer

    C13soccer Member

    Arsenal
    United States
    Aug 30, 2018
    Some great T25 matchups tomorrow....

    Messiah @ Misericordia
    Arcadia @ Stevens Tech
    Ct College @ Middlebury
    Amherst @ Williams
     
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  20. Eddie K

    Eddie K Member+

    May 5, 2007
    CNU draw with Lynchburg will help LC a little more than hurt CNU. LC getting thumped by W&L also hurts though, although they were only 5/6 in the regional ranking. I'd say both CNU and LC are over-rated a bit in the coaches poll.
    FWIW - these debates are why I like the coaches poll. While there is some bias toward "traditional" powers and recent successful teams, coaches know a lot more than computers. Injuries, illness, discipline, travel issues, weather, etc - all factors coaches can consider that computers really don't. The ol "eye ball" test versus a seasonal "body of work". Heard those phrases alot over the years. The d3 folks also operate without an official RPI or even SOS data until about mid-season. That makes it much harder.
    ALSO, regarding SOS, serious debate about conference vs non-conference SOS over the years. Some of these d3s can't realistically travel or afford to travel much to get tougher games. If you're in a big conference with fewer non-conference games with a crap budget, that gets tough to build a schedule that can get you ranked. Some coaches are more infamous than others for clearly not going after better teams too. Seen it both ways but when splitting hairs in the rankings between 2 teams, I like to compare who they chose to play early.
     
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  21. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Ordinarily, coach polls and computer ratings are performing different functions. Coach polls typically are how the coaches think teams will do in the future. That's true of pre-season polls as well as polls during the season. Computer ratings, on the other hand, are measures of how teams have done, rather than measures of how they will do.

    On the other hand, there's a tendency to overvalue the "eye ball" test as a predictor and to undervalue the "body of work" test likewise as a predictor. Detailed knowledge such as you've listed matters and allows better predictions, but even though the computers are "retrodictive," they are pretty competitive with humans as predictors.

    Last year, for Division I women, my computer did a past-history-based simulation of what the final regular season standings would be in each conference. The coaches of each conference did predictions, too. At the end of the season, I measured how close the coaches' predictions were to the actual final regular season standings and how close my computer's simulations were. The coaches' predicted standings, on average, were within 2.03 positions of actual standings. My computer's were within 2.24. So the coaches, with their detailed knowledge, were slightly better.

    This year, my computer is using a refined system and, at the end of the season, I'll be measuring again. I'm thinking the coaches will do better again, but I won't be completely surprised if they don't.

    This isn't to say that what you posted is wrong. It's more a case that the best of human predictions aren't a whole lot better than what you get from computers. And, in terms of the best of human predictors, I assume that the coaches are right up there with the best -- at least, they should be.
     
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  22. SoccerSwattie

    SoccerSwattie Member

    Oct 17, 2016
    #97 SoccerSwattie, Sep 30, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2019
    Some shake ups going on in the Centennial Conference...Swarthmore lost to Dickenson and McDaniel in OT's... and Washington College tied historic juggernaut Johns Hopkins...times are a changin...it was the first time JHU did not defeat Washington College according to D3soccer.com...

    In the NESCAC I am told Hamilton came very very close to defeating NCAA D3 Finalist Middlebury on 9/22...
     
  23. C13soccer

    C13soccer Member

    Arsenal
    United States
    Aug 30, 2018
    On the Hopkins Washington draw, see the prior discussion on “parking the bus”.

    Hopkins did not allow a single SOG and only one...ONE!!...shot of any kind by Washington. They could not, however, put any one of their 20 shots in the net.

    Wash was the epitome of the “beautiful desperation” and look for their goalie to get Defensive PoW honors in the conference this week.
     
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  24. CoachJon

    CoachJon Member+

    Feb 1, 2006
    Rochester, NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So, Case Western Reserve is 9-0-0 under Jen Simonetti. We had some comments early this year about the April 2019 departure of Tiffany Crooks and the July 2 announcement of Simonetti.
    Last year, CWRU was 5-4 after 9 games, losing to Kenyon, Denison, #8 Ohio Northern, and #12 Brandeis (UAA game).
    This year they beat Ohio Northern and Kenyon, both by 3-1 scores. CWRU has 35 GF and 5 GA. No UAA games yet.

    Massey has CWRU (9-0-0) at #17, Chicago (6-1-1) at #15, and WashU (8-1-1) at #12.

    Pretty strong start for the Spartans. Will it continue during UAA play?

    8387
     
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  25. C13soccer

    C13soccer Member

    Arsenal
    United States
    Aug 30, 2018
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