Division 3 – 2021 (Fall)

Thank you CoachJon for your analysis. I see your point about the imbalance of the draw. I include a few additional details that I hope illustrate the imbalance: Note that all rankings below refer to RIP rankings.

n a perfectly balanced draw, each projected quarter finalist would be projected to play one and only one top 16 team to reach the quarterfinals.

On the left side of this draw both #7 WashU and #5 Christoper Newport are projected to reach the quarterfinals without having played any top 16 team. In fact, WashU is projected to reach the final 4 having played a single top 16 team, #15 Loras, and Christopher Newport is projected to reach the final 4 having played a single top 16 team, #12 CWR.

The right side of the draw looks different. In a balanced draw the #1 and #2 teams would be projected to meet in the finals. On the upper right, #1 Misericordia is projected to meet #2 William Smith in the 3rd round and the winner of that match is projected to meet the #4 TCNJ in the quarterfinal. On the lower right, #3 JHU is projected to have to beat #10 Amherst and #11 Wesleyan to reach the quarterfinals, where they are projected to meet #6 McDaniel.

 

i mentioned in the post above how brutal JHU's draw is and EddieK noted that JHU has to unexpectedly travel to New England in on the first weekend. I wonder if this is the D3 coaches way of showing their disapproval of JHU taking advantage of the pandemic to play D1 graduate students.

 

Johns Hopkins got hosed in the draw. They have the capability to win it all and that’s the draw they got?

The way that you wrote this almost makes it seem as if JHU is playing unfair or cheating in some way. JHU isn’t “taking advantage” of the pandemic. JHU didn’t make the rules that are allowing the graduate transfers to play. That was something the NCAA did. In that regard, there are a lot of athletes in all sports that are playing as graduate transfers at schools other than the ones from which they received their undergraduate degrees. Some are graduates at the school they were at during their undergraduate years but if that school doesn’t have what the student-athlete wants to study, they may appear on a roster elsewhere. This is happening a lot more than it is in soccer in sports like cross country, track & field, and football. Women’s & men’s cross country rosters are packed this fall with 5th years and grad transfers. In the “Transfer Portal” thread, EddieK pointed out that 150 of those in the portal are 5th years. We should expect to see the trend continue for as long as athletes are in the system that are being granted more eligibility.

JHU is a bit atypical for a D3 school . It is a world-class research and academic institution. It has an endowment of nearly $9 billion that attests to that. Most D3 schools are purely undergraduate institutions or, at best, offer limited graduate studies. Schools like Chicago, WashU, MIT, and others, are the exception and not the rule. Quite frankly, I’m surprised that more D1 grad transfers haven’t appeared on the rosters of other academic powerhouses.

The grad transfers on JHU’s roster is not underhanded in any way. As I pointed out, many schools are taking advantage of the NCAA rules and it is their right to do so. Taking advantage of anything in life is absolutely fine if one is able to do so. Covid has changed the rules of a lot of different aspects of life - the repaying of loans, business etiquette, cancellation of reservations, refunds on various things, and the length of time a collegiate athlete is eligible to play if they wish to do so. So, in that regard, many people have taken advantage of rule changes in many aspects of life. It is their right to do so and in a lot of instances, it’s the wise thing to do. If JHU is being “punished,” shame on the committee for punishing them.

 

The table below quantifies which top eight teams have the toughest projected road to the Final Four. I leave out the 1st round opponents because I believe they are quantitatively irrelevant for top 8 teams. For rankings I use CoachJon's RIP rankings. Please note that Washu's first two opponents do not have RIP rankings, so I used their Massey rankings.

	Team	RIP	2nd	3rd	QF	Avg Opp. RIP
1	William Smith	2	#17 Hamilton	#1 Misericordia	#4 TCNJ	7.33
2	TCNJ	4	#9 Messiah	#13 Scranton	#1 Misericordia	7.67
3	Misericordia	1	#20 Middlebury	#2 William Smith	#4 TCNJ	8.67
4	JHU	3	#10 Amherst	#11 Wesleyan	#6 McDaniel	9
4	McDaniel	6	#16 CMU	#8 MIT	#3 JHU	9
6	MIT	8	#22 Brandeis	#6 McDaniel	#3 JHU	10.33
7	Christopher Newport	5	#23 F&M	#21 Trinity Tex	#12 CWR	18.67
8	WashU	7	#66 Hanover	#40 Wartburg	#15 Loras	40.33

 

Sorry, I make a mistake in the last post by ranking the teams by their RIP instead of just using the RIP directly. Here is the updated table:

The table below quantifies which top eight teams have the toughest projected road to the Final Four. I leave out the 1st round opponents because I believe they are quantitatively irrelevant for top 8 teams. For rankings I use CoachJon's RIP rankings. Please note that Washu's first two opponents do not have RIP rankings, so I used their Massey rankings.

Team	RIP	2nd	3rd	QF	Avg Opp. RIP
TCNJ	5.33	9 Messiah	12 Scranton	2 Misericordia	7.67
William Smith	3	18.67 Hamilton	2 Misericordia	5.33 TCNJ	8.67
JHU	4	9.33 Amherst	10.67 Wesleyan	8 McDaniel	9.33
Misericordia	2	20.67 Middlebury	3 William Smith	5.33 TCNJ	9.67
McDaniel	8	17 CMU	8.67 MIT	4 JHU	9.89
MIT	8.67	22 Brandeis	8 McDaniel	4 JHU	11.33
C Newport	6.33	24 F&M	21.67 Trinity Tex	11.33 CWR	19
WashU	8	66 Hanover	40 Wartburg	14.33 Loras	40.11

Here is a RIP list for the top 25 teams as a reference:

Team	D3Soccer	USC	Massey	RIP
Misericordia	1	4	1	2
W Smith	4	3	2	3
JHU	5	2	5	4
TCNJ	2	1	13	5.33
C Newport	3	5	11	6.33
McDaniel	7	7	10	8
WashU	6	6	12	8
MIT	9	8	9	8.67
Messiah	8	11	8	9
Amherst	13	12	3	9.33
Wesleyan	14	14	4	10.67
CWR	10	10	14	11.33
Scranton	11	18	7	12
Chicago	16	16	6	12.67
Loras	12	9	22	14.33
CMU	18	15	18	17
Hamilton	22	17	17	18.67
Centre	15	13	32	20
Emory	21	21	19	20.33
Middlebury	19	27	16	20.67
Trinity Tex	17	24	24	21.67
Brandeis	23	20	23	22
F & M	24	28	20	24
Geneseo State	25	28	30	27.67
W Conn	39	23	28	30

 

I'm a WashU alum, and so I'm happy for their tournament outlook, but.... holy hell yikes, the bracket mismatch this year is criminal.

 

Who do you think is going to the finals?

 

Paper printouts!?!? What? Did you lose your chisel and stone tablet?

 

If you want that game program to be read in 2 thousand years, there is still nothing better than a chisel and stone tablet;-)

 

There were some interesting 1st round games yesterday. In four games, the team with the higher (worse) Massey rating won:
- Stevens (49) over Ithaca (34) 3-0
- Geneseo (30) over Connecticut College (26) 2-1
- Wheaton Ill (77) over WiS Oshkosh (69) 2-2 PKs
- Wis LaCrosse (56) over Wartburg (42) - 1-0

I am not sure one could describe these as upsets. The pairs were all relatively evenly rated.

I watched part of the Steven-Ithaca game. The first half was played in a tempest and Stevens has the wind to their backs. Their first goal was scored on a brilliant corner lofted high over the middle of the box. The wind literally blow the ball into the cage. I figured Ithaca could take advantage of the wind in the second half, but the wind moderated and Stevens had the better midfielders.

There were also some very close calls for ranked teams. CMU, Brandeis and F&M all were trailing and were able to score late for the wins. Messiah scored the only goal in overtime against Virginia Wesleyan. Middlebury lost their 2-0 lead in the second half against Lynchburg but were able to score the winning goal in the closing minutes. Hamilton was ahead 3-0 and held on for a 3-2 win against Johnson & Wales.

 

Looks like the Sectional sites have been selected:
UpperLeft - Loras
Upper Right - Scranton
Lower Left - CWR
Lower Right - MIT

 

Does anyone have a good explanation of how the ncaa chooses the 2nd weekend sites?

cuz after getting hosed on the first weekend assignment, looks like they chose to rodger the Hopkins team this time.

 

I thought WashU was going to win the tournament in 2019. What especially impressed me about the 2019 WashU team was the way their midfielders formed an impenetrable defensive wall at the midfield line. When an opponent tried dribble through the line, the WashU middies would turn them, de-possess them and transition directly into offense.

I watched segments of three different WashU games this season but I never saw any sign of that middies defensive wall. In the CMU game, I thought CMU had the better midfielders. From what I saw of WashU, I am not very surprised their tournament has ended early.

 

I watched the William Smith matches against both Misericordia and TCNJ. The match with Misericordia shows what happens when you have a deep bench. William Smith consistently has a strong second half since there is little drop off in ability when they sub players. It wears down the other teams. Misericordia contolled the game with a 3-1 lead until about 17 minutes into the 2d half. Julia Keogh of William Smith scored her 22nd goal of the season to close the gap and I thought "here they go again!" But Misericordia responded with a goal to go up 4-2 about a minute later and I thought "maybe not this time". But the shot differential in the second half was 16 to 3 in William Smith's favor. I give Msericordia credit in that they didn't tighten up when William Smith closed it to 4-3 with 24 minutes to go and you felt they would hold on. When William Smith made the miracle goal with 11 seconds left in the game, you just knew they would win it in OT. An exciting offensive match. A pity for Misericordia.

The matchup between William Smith and TCNJ was a battle between 2 of the best teams in the nation. They were nearly even in in both shots and corner shots throughout the match. Unlike Misericordia, once they got the 1-0 lead, they were able to keep the ball in their offensive zone for much of the second half, escpecially in the last five minutes. A good example of the phrase " A good offense is the best defense." Still when William Smith hit their last second shot from deep, it was right on frame and for a moment we thought "there they go again with another miracle." But the TCNJ goalie brought the ball in and the horn sounded for the TCNJ victory.

These games highlight how unfair the brackets were this year. Few teams in the other brackets faced off against such strong opponents. To have Messiah, Scranton, Misericordia, William Smith and TCNJ is the same bracket is ridiculous. Both of these games will probably be better than any of the matches in the semifinal. It's a shame that these strong teams had to face each other in Elite 8 and quarterfinal matchups rather than in the Final 4.

 

WashU lost a lot of talent to graduation in the last year in addition to their excellent coach, Jim Conlon, going to Grand Valley State. They still had their excellent All-American center back, Gabbie Cesarone, but she did not get a lot of support. She scored the lone goal against UW-LaCrosse. That points to another issue WashU had this season - offensive output. This is the lowest scoring Bears team in recent memory. Additionally, the current coach, Stephanie Gabbert, still has the interim label and I sense that there was never a feeling of being "settled" this season.

It feels like the entire UAA was maybe a bit down this season. The teams were an excellent pre-league schedule against OOC opponents but then struggled a bit to find consistency. One bright spot is the job that Jen Simonetti did at CWRU. They exited the tournament earlier than they would have liked but she has done a commendable job of getting that program to a higher level. The school administration should do what is necessary to keep her in Cleveland.

I'll agree that the brackets weren't the best this year but sometimes that's just the way it is. From a geographical perspective, there are a large number of good teams that are located fairly close to each other. It seems like both the East and Northeast sectionals could have been rejiggered to be a bit more even. Johns Hopkins, in particular, got the shaft, IMHO. I also think of JHU being in a bit more of a southern location and putting them in the East as opposed to the Northeast would have seemed fairer. IT would have also allowed for adjustments elsewhere. The committee did a bad job with the placements of most of those teams.

What really stood out to me this year was the dearth of teams from the western part of the country. As recently as 2019, the last year the tournament was played, there were these teams just from California: Pomona-Pitzer, CMS, UC-Santa Cruz, and Cal Lutheran.

 

The software on this site that only allows for edits within 30 minutes of making a post is horrible. Does anyone know why that is? I did not read my post until just now and I see that some of what I wrote was butchered. Unfortunately, I can't change it!

 

It's already been said many times before but it is unfortunate that the semifinals and finals are on consecutive days. D1 & D2 don't do it. It only happens in D3. Perhaps that rationale is that the focus of D3 athletes should always be academics and the less time away from school, the better off they will be.

 

USC announce their 2021 All-Americans selections yesterday.

https://unitedsoccercoaches.org/2021-ncaa-division-iii-womens-all-americans-announced/

 

Congrats to the William Smith trio of Julia Keogh (1st Team), Sheila McQuillen (2d Team) and Merilyn Hinrichs (3rd Team) on their All-American selections. Well deserved. Also congrats to Alex Epifani (3rd Team) for her third career All-American selection. On a personal note, I was thrilled to see that Hope Drewes of Scranton was selected for 2d Team All-American. Hope was a key member of our local high school team, a great defender and had a great ability to get balls to our forwards in the box for dangerous opportunities. Glad to see that she continued to be so effective in her college career.

With no disrespect to her ability, Epifani's selection for All-American status highlights my pet peeve with the selection process. I'm often told that All-American selection is "political" without further explanation. I know that eligible voters get to select up to 22 players (1st and 2nd team) and then an All-America formula is applied which includes factors such as the player ranking, success of the team and total votes received from eligible voters. Yet as I see it, voters can be lazy and many times select players who did not have a great season simply because of past name recognition and overall team success, with less weight given to player effectiveness or impact in a season. As a result, players who statistically had an All-American season for a team that misses the playoffs often get overlooked. Of the 50 players selected this year, 47 players were on teams that made the playoffs (in many cases, those players are a big reason why they did). So clearly, team success is key factor to selection.

So lets look at the case for Epifani. In 2018, she clearly deserved her All-American selection leading her team to the 2d place in Liberty League and a NCAA playoff bid. She had 9 goals, 7 assists and 5 Game winners and led the Liberty League in assists and points and was 2d in goals. In 2019, Epifani only have 5 goals, 6 assists and 4 game winners. Her stats that year were down and she was not even in the top ten players in the League for goals and 4th in assists. Her team finished seventh in the League that year. Yet in 2019 she again was selected All-American, presumably based on name recognition from the prior year selection. In 2021, Epifani slighly improved to 6 goals, 8 assists and 2 game winners. Again she was not in the top 10 in the Liberty League for goals or game winners but was third in assists. Her team however finished second in the League and secured a NCAA bid. Admittedly, her strong play in the Liberty League finals may have influenced some votes but there were other players in her League, her region and even outside the region that had better statistical years and had a greater impact on the success of their season who were not rewarded for their efforts. Alex admittedly has great foot skills but did she really earn three time All-American status? I know it seems that I am picking on Alex and there are other examples but she is the easiest to point to due to her third time selection. When I think of what it takes to merit a 3 time All-American selection, your stats really should be more like Riley Cook of Christopher Newport.

I won't go through a laundry list of players who had better statistics and greater impact but I will point to 2 other players whose teams made the NCAA playoffs and who were overlooked. Tereasa Ashbrook of Trine lead her team statistically with 18 G, 3 Assists and 7 game winners. Yes, she is a freshman (so may not have name recognition) but more than tripled Alex's goals and had more game winners. Or closer to home was Hannah Sullivan, a senior from Geneseo, who led her team to the NCAA playoffs with 7 goals, 11 assists and 4 game winners. Didn't she deserve recognition? Yes, I know that statistics may be given less weight when you factor in strength of schedule but both of these teams played decent schedules.

I'm not sure if there are possible adjustments that can be made to the selection formula or if I'm just tilting at the wind. Of course, some of you may have suggestions or may see it otherwise. Setting that pet peeve aside, congrats to every player who made All-American.

 

D3Soccer.com published their final ranking for 2021, so I decided to calculate the final consolidated ranking based on CoachJon's RIP method ((UCS Rank + Massey Rank + D3Soccer.com Rank) divided by 3).

RIP	Team	USC	D3	Massey
1.33	CNU	1	1	2
2.67	TCNJ	2	2	4
3.67	W. Smith	5	3	3
4.33	Wesleyan	4	4	5
4.67	Misericordia	6	7	1
7.67	JHU	8	9	6
8.00	MIT	7	6	11
9.00	Loras	5	3	19
9.33	Scranton	11	10	7
9.33	Chicago	10	8	10
11.00	WashU	9	11	13
13.00	Messiah	13	17	9
13.00	CWR	12	12	15
14.67	Amherst	18	18	8
15.00	CMU	14	15	16
16.33	McDaniel	16	19	14
17.67	Trinity (Texas)	15	16	22
19.00	Centre	17	14	26
19.33	UW-La Crosse	19	13	26
19.67	Pom-Pitz	23	24	12
20.33	Hamilton	20	20	21
21.00	Emory	21	22	20
21.00	Middlebury	22	23	18
22.67	F & M	25	26	17
23.67	Brandeis	24	21	26
25.00	Tufts	26	26	23
25.33	Geneseo St	26	25	25
25.33	Pac Lutheran	26	26	24

The Massey ranking seems to skew the RIP somewhat, so I include a consolidated table of just the two polls:

Rank	Team	USC	D3
1	CNU	1	1
2	TCNJ	2	2
3	Loras	3	5
3	Wesleyan	4	4
3	W. Smith	5	3
6	Misericordia	7	6
6	MIT	6	7
8	JHU	9	8
9	Chicago	8	10
10	WashU	11	9
11	Scranton	10	11
12	CWR	12	12
13	CMU	15	14
14	Messiah	17	13
15	Centre	14	17
15	Trinity (Tex)	16	15
17	UW LaCrosse	13	19
18	McDaniel	19	16
19	Amherst	18	18
20	Hamilton	20	20
21	Emory	22	21
22	Brandeis	21	24
22	Middlebury	23	22
24	Pom-Pitz	24	23
25	F & M	26	25
25	Geneseo St.	25	26