We're now six weeks from Iowa and two months from NH so the polls really start to matter. Who's leading where? Iowa Zogby: Dean 26-22 over Gephardt, which is a statistical tie. No one else polls at over 10%. The most interesting thing to me about this poll is the fav / unfav #s near the bottom -- Lieberman is 42% unfavorable vs. 35% favorable. Among Democrats. Sure he dropped out of Iowa, but he was 27% unfav in September. NH Zogby: Dean 42-12 over Kerry, no one else over 10%. Kerry's support has halved since February. Bush's "likely to be re-elected" numbers have gone to 66%, up from 60% in Oct but still down from 76% in June. Marist also shows a big Dean lead. SC Feldman: Edwards leads 17-12 over... Sharpton? Dean at 11, Clark at 10. This contrasts another American Research Group poll that shows Clark leading Edwards 15-12 with lots of undecideds, and Feldman may not be the most reputable pollster around. In the ASG poll Clark has the lowest unfavorables, while Dean is equally split between fav / unfav. National Polling Report and National Zogby both show Dean leading in limited national polls, with Clark the greatest recent gainer. If Gep loses Iowa and Kerry loses NH, then it's going to be Dean vs. the SC winner through Super Tuesday. And then the Dems will need to figure out if they want more a candidate who connects well with Southern voters while generating little spark among core groups, or rallies the base constituency at the expense of Southern moderates. I of course am still hoping for Dean / Clark, though Clark as Pres nominee would be a more solid choice than, say, Kerry or Lieberman.
That's the most clever thing you're ever said here. New SC Zogby shows a big muddle, but Dean has his first lead there ever while Clark surges and Edwards & Kerry drop.
A St Pete Times / Miami Herald poll gives an early look at Florida -- Dean, Clark, and Lieberman are all side by side with everyone else under 10%. The sidebar here is interesting as well -- it covers respondents of all political affiliations. #1 issue for Floridians is Medicare / Soc Sec (36% say 1st or 2nd most important), vs. Iraq at 34%. "Improving the economy" is lower than expected at 19%; tax cuts at 6%. Bush gets a strong 56% approval on "making America safer from terrorist attacks", but does badly on Iraq questions (55% say # of casualties is unacceptable; 69% say he hasn't explained how long troops will be there) and general "he understands us" issues (50% say he doesn't). In a hypo general election, Bush leads Dean 49-41 and Clark 48-40. They are the only two to keep Bush under 50%. I'd say those are certainly manageable numbers for Democrats at this point considering that the two leading candidates are relative unknowns in Florida.
The Dems are going to get clocked down South, so forget courting them. Go with Gephardt as number two. The only chance you'll have to win next November is to try and get a clean sweep in the midwest. Clark's a bust. Get over the love affair with him. Lieberman's going to hang in there as long as possible. The "sensible" alternative. When the Dems are slaughtered, he'll walk up and tell you all that it wouldn't have happened if he had been around. The old "I told you so." He's looking to become your future big elder statesman in the Senate. Pushing Kennedy to the side.
So Democrats should ignore Southern voters in the primaries? That seems like a winning strategy all right. PS Does Florida count as a Southern state? Why? Gephard is on record as saying unequivocally that he will win Iowa. Therefore, if he loses Iowa, which seems at least possible if not likely, there's a good chance he drops out. A guy who touts himself as the best friend of labor yet can't win major labor endorsements seems to be a weak candidate. Or Florida. If you don't think Florida is up for grabs you're confused. What's your rationale behind this statement? Clark's candidacy is still in its infancy compared with the other Dems. I love how you put sensible in quotes. You know what they say - if you run a Republican against a Republican then a Republican wins every time. Besides, Lieberman's got a big ol' albatross hanging over his neck from which he will not escape. Didn't work out so well for him the first time around. Tell me what Lieberman has done differently this time around that should make him so much more attractive as a presidential candidate than as a running mate. Won't. Happen.
Obviously you pay attention to Southern voters in a Southern primary. The question is whether you go with a Southern candidate for veep and think it's going to get you anything extra in terms of electorial votes at the end. It's a lock for the Republicans down there. Yes. Of course he says he'll win Iowa. What the hell is he supposed to say? A combination of Dean and Gephardt would solidify the labor vote and fully maximize their impact for the Democrats. Gephardt is still well-liked and respected within the old blue-collar industrial union membership. They'll be cool to a guy like Dean. Gephardt will bring them on board. Otherwise, many may go with Bush or sit on their hands. It will be hard fought, but I'd be shocked if it's as instrumental in the election results as the last time. If you think it's so important, put Bob Graham on the ticket. He may bring Florida home for the Dems, but what else in addition? For the record, I think Bush will take Florida and we won't be up till 4AM waiting for that particular result. A candidancy in it's infancy at this time with the primaries right around the corner is doomed. Clark has never gotten off the launch pad. Some people still love the idea of him at the top of the ticket, but it takes money, not love. Dean's got the cash, Clark doesn't. Forget it, he's toast. I believe that's how Joe sees himself. He knows he's a voice in the wilderness right now in the Democrat primary. He's looking beyond this campaign for his message to reasonate in the future. The albatross was his buying into Gore's line during the last election. My respect for him took a hit. But that's the price you pay to run as veep. You have to carry number one's water. Nothing will make him attractive as a candidate to most of the Democrats. But he knows his stature amongst whatever moderates are left in your party will rise as a result of his campaign and, when the subsequent demolition of the liberal wing of the party takes place next November, he will be around with an enhanced reputation to pick the broken pieces up and be a stronger voice within the party than he is now. Probably not. But you Democrats have got to stop taking Teddy seriously. He's nothing but a caricature today. You'd be far better of following a Lieberman.
Wish there was a poll for the Colorado primary... OH WAIT!!!! that's right! There is no Colorado primary, the economy is so healthy that Republican legislatures across many states have decided to subvert democracy and cancel primaries, ya know, so people won't bother with a little political activism... F**-Kin SHAM!!!!!
I'll try to keep this from just average sniping... As we have said here before, the trick is to make states look like they are in play so that the other side has to spend money and time there. For example, Tennessee and North Carolina are states that should go for Bush but Dems can make Bush work for them. (The inverse of this for the GOP is to make Dems work for California.) Florida, Georgia and Arkansas are genuinely up for grabs. Gephardt is not Vice Presidential material. The number one attribute that a VP needs is the ability to defend his boss in any and all circumstances, and Gep is just not that kind of person. Besides, he's bland as white toast. On the other hand... He is superb VP material. His background as a military leader makes him uniquely qualified for Vice President. (Whether it makes him uniquely qualified to be the #1 is debatable.) In fact, even if the Dems were guaranteed to lose next year, I would still want Clark on the ticket because he can learn from the hard campaign experience. Lieberman's Presidential aspirations will end March 3rd, if not sooner. And if the Dem candidate (Dean, Clark, or upset special from out of nowhere) gets clobbered, it will be because Bush turned Iraq around and got the benefit of the doubt on the economy -- neither of which would have been overcome by Lieberman. Jon Stewart said it best about Lieberman: "He's basically for people who want to vote for Bush but don't think Bush is Jewish enough."
I hadn't heard about this, but apparently there are seven states that won't have a primary. I'm amazed at this.
Re: Re: Dem caucus / primary polls thread Just needed a slight adjustment there. Lieberman's only hope is to score big wins in Arizona and Delaware the day before. Arizona's the more important of the two, and Lieberman's lost some of the endorsements he had in the Grand Canyon State.
Washington just eliminated its primary as the Democrats have decided to stick with the caucus system and the Republicans already know who their candidate is. The state could use the six million dollars elsewhere. I'm kind of wondering if the primaries have run their course and if we wouldn't be better off with caucuses, but that's a topic for another thread.
Kucinich supporters fly beneath poll radar, so prepare yourselves. He'll finish a strong second in NH, win a sweeping majority in Iowa and beat his opponents like a chinese gong in SC. You heard it here first.
No. Caucuses are bogus, ersatz elections. Get people in the privacy of the booth and let them cast their secret ballot. I'm astonish anyone can take a caucus or something like a straw poll seriously.
National Cook: Dean leads "Don't Know" 18-15. Clark & Gep at 14, Kerry (in the only poll that shows him with a pulse) at 13. But if HRC is added to the mix, she takes off. This is bad for Democrats. Why even ask the question at this point? They might as well ask "If Bill Clinton could run again, would you vote for him?"
Since the Gore endorsement Dean has exploded in Iowa, opening up a 20-point lead according to this poll. The Quinnipiac national shows only Dean and Sharpton gaining since October, and Clark (surprisingly) dropping. Bush is back at 50-51% against all opponents including the not-running HRC.