DCU - Revs and USMNT[r]

He's not slow though. He can run, he's just not what anyone would call fast. Much the same as Twellman, Eskandarian gets accused of being slow because he's not blazing fast. But in both cases that's not accurate. They're both fast enough to get in behind the defenders and push things, they just can't do it as often as an Eddie Johnson type burner.

Eskandarian works very hard and does appear to have an absolutely deadly left foot, so the question is how much he can flesh out the rest of his game. Touch, technique and ball control could be better from him though...

 

Yes but on the other hand the causation arrow could be the other way around. Maybe the fact that San Jose wasn't as good this year caused Donovan's finishing numbers to drop.

Or maybe it's just one of those things.

I agree with Numerista, these numbers get a lot more meaning when you add in multiple seasons. Now you can weight the most recent season more than previous seasons if you like, but it's likely that the previous season numbers add significant insight.

Also, to take Twellman as an example, he took 70 shots in the regular season this year and scored 9 times. If we guess Twellman's "actual" success rate at 18%, in 70 shots we'd expect 12 or 13 goals, but we'd also expect that 17% of the time he'd score 9 or fewer goals.

Also Twellman led the league in shots on target so basically his lower percentage was due to finding the keeper more than missing the net. That could mean a number of things both good and bad.

Here's shot% (penalties removed) for the last three years for American forwards:

1. Ching - 20.0%
2. Twellman - 17.8%
3. Eskandarian - 17.8%
4. Noonan - 17.6%
5. Buddle - 17.1%
T6. Donovan - 16.7%
T6. Arnaud - 16.7%
8. Wolyniec - 16.3%
T9. Wolff - 15.2%
T9. Adu - 15.2%
11. Kreis- 14.7%
12. Johnson - 13.9%
13. McBride - 13.7%
T14. Cunningham - 13.5%
T14. Magee - 13.5%

 

One way to add a bit more rigor is to look at the Soccernet Gamecasts.
Henry's shot attempts in Euro 2004 break down as follows:
0 in or near the six-yard box
6 clearly inside the penalty area (1 goal)
6 at the inside edge of the penalty area (1 goal)
0 at the outside edge of the penalty area
10 from beyond the fringe of the penalty area (0 goals)

That's a lot of long range shooting, although in 03/04 Henry did score 6 of his 23 non-PK Premiership goals from outside the box.

Now that I look at it, Henry performed more-or-less as expected in Euro 2004, once you factor out penalty kicks. He had 23 non-PK goals in 37 Premiership matches and 2 goals in 4 Euro 2004 matches.

I may try to look at his Premiership shot distribution later.

 

voros, I'm all for eskandarian getting a look...the kid just keeps making plays, and I agree he has played well in the transition game for dc... I do wonder how having moreno and gomez to playmake for him enhances his best assets...

would arena bag the target type guy in ching or mcbride when pairing with esky or use another speedy forward to complement him...

i'd rather see esky with johnson rather than an esky/ching pairing....

I think having someone to really stretch a defense, and then having esky exploit some of the openings would best utilize him....I don't see esky/ching working all that well

 

I agree that if Esky were to play Arena would not be able to use a target forward like McBride, Ching or Casey. Esky just doesn't have enough....ummmm...not quite sure how to put it. Well, many have already pointed out that he is not Eddie Johnson fast, but he's not slow. He knows when he has half an opening at goal and he goes for it, something that you just can't teach, I think. He just knows when to take a shot. He came close a couple of other times against New England , once on a header. That shocked the hell outta me. His moves are not Maranonna-esque, either but somehow he gets the job done. Again, small opening and BANG!!!! he gets a shot off. The nats could use someone like that as long as he is paired with Eddie Johnson or Edson Buddle types.

Just a theory. Carry on.

 

Shooting numbers for Henry, Prem 04/05 with %, and Euro 04 in parens:

Inside Six-Yard Box: 1-1 100% (0-0)
Outside Edge of Six-Yard Box: 0-0 (0-0)
Inside Penalty Area (not near edge): 7-15 46.7% (1-6)
Within Edge of Penalty Area: 1-5 20% (1-6)
Outside Edge of Penalty Area: 1-12 6.7% (0-0)
Beyond Edge of Penalty Area: 0-13 0% (0-10)
Penalty Kick: 0-1 0% (0-0)

Total: 10-47 21.3% (2-22) 9.1%

Henry's conversion rate depends heavily upon where he's shooting from. In Euro 2004, he had a lot fewer close-range shots than he did for Arsenal. That doesn't explain his lower-than-usual conversion rate from inside the box, but as John indicates, he may also have had less space and time in which to finish.

What does this mean for MLS data? For one thing, it suggests that shooting statistics are more valuable when we know the location of the shots.

 

Or maybe he puts them on frame... but they are more easily saved?
Maybe he has a tendencey to put them right at the keeper?
But if given the choice... give me the guy who puts the shots on net... you never know what may happen then. But if the ball is off frame - no matter if the keeper misreads it... it can't get in.

 

No those are the same numbers Nutmeg was talking about excpet over the last three years and not just 2004. Twellman was among the league leaders in the stat in 2002 and 2003. He was the league leader (among players with a fair number of shots) in SOG% in 2004 but an abnormal shots of his shots on goal didn't wind up in the net. Whether that's bad luck or bad finishing or a combination of the two I don't know.

 

My impression is that Twellman's shots are lethally accurate but not at all powerful. If he's being forced away from the goal, that would help explain why he's now converting at a much lower rate.

Incidentally, apart from free kicks, the Revs scored only one goal from outside the area all season.

 

you are more or less correct.Taylor is like the great German Gerd Mueller in that he really is at his best in the box. He is always trying to get the last touch in the box, for a volley or redirect. He rarely shoots from outside the box. He has certaibly never shown a howitzer like Eskandarian. That guys' shot could kill someone.

 

Esky might be able to play on the left in a 2-forward line-up but I really think he has to work on his dribble going right, even if just to create a foot more room for a shot, and on adding a right foot to the equation.

Der Bomber could score with either foot, head, behind, shoulders ... while sitting on the ground, falling down or getting up, with his back to the goal, while being held ... well, you get my point.

 

Although players who put more shots on goal tend to have a better shooting percentage, this isn't exactly the whole story. There have been several very good goal-scorers in MLS that have had relatively low SOG percentages - Stern John, the all-time leader in G/90 (.92), and one of the top 10 in Goal%, had a relatively low SOG% (20, 42 respectively); Edson Buddle is the same way, coming in at 17, 44.

Meanwhile, more archetypal 'poachers' put a significantly greater number of shots on goal, without much-improved scoring rates. Twellman is actually one of the highest, at 18/57; others include Roy Lassiter (20/59), Ronald Cerritos (16/58), and Carlos Ruiz (16/56).

And there are several players with very high SOG%'s, but low G%'s: Ben Olsen (9/56), Amado Guevara (5/47), Brian Mullan (11/51), and Mauricio Cienfuegos (9/49).

Those may not seem like huge differences, but despite significantly lower SOG%'s, Buddle and John score on more than twice as many of their shots as the others. Basically, it's not a good idea to judge how good of a scorer someone is based on his Shot on Goal percentage.

Basically, it's just not

 

der bomber could wake up at 3am and score....

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just ask his wife!!

 

3 am? I don't think Müller came home that early ... something about getting bombed.