Great post. Really. Kreis, Twellman, Eskandarian. Three very similar players of a type that Arena doesn't value that much. Kreis' window of Nats opportunity is over now but with another coach he might have been a regular. Twellman's window is going after the season he's just had. Eskandarian's window is just opening but he needs to just be dominant each and every year in MLS (which is why twellman is fading in Arena's eyes), then produce internationally right away for Arena to stay with him. Is this fair of Arena to act as such? Hard to say. The thing about these guys is that they don't have great physical presence. They aren't especially big, nor especially fast. They also need some help getting their shot off. What Arena wants ideally is a player who has these guys instincts in a large fast body. He doesn't have that body yet though Johnson looks possible. Ching is close but not quite. Casey could be but... well you know. Albright failed. I do expect Esky will get a look, but he damn well better light up the scoreboard immediately. PS. As for Olsen, he could be a decent option as a central mid in a 352 (not a d-mid). But the Nats are fairly deep there so even though he might get a look-see he won't get much playing time even if he could at least be good in CONCACAF competition. PPS Eskandarian again. A small liability with him is that even on a team with Kovalenko he's the yellow card leader. He's got to be less reckless on his challenges. PPPS Gros? Maybe next cycle (and I can imagine that) but not before 06. I see his potential both physical and his capacity to learn but he has a ways to go.
anyone who revisits the confed cup in mexico will see the very ebst olsen has to offer prior to his leg woes....his mobility and fearlessness gave arena a more talented upgrade over what hejduk would offer... as to eskandarian, the kid simply keeps making plays which means he earns a look, but with a johnson and buddle offering more athletic upgrades, esky skill might NOT be quite enough... give him a personal trainer for a few months, get quicker and stronger, and he might force his way onto the pitch..... making plays will always help !!
I understand the reasons why neither Kries, nor Twellman (to this point) have has success at the International level. Eskandarian is different though. He does have good speed. And he understands the game and he understands how to get himself open. But most importantly, He's the best pure finisher I've seen America produce since Eric Wynalda. Get him the ball anywhere within 30 yards and he can get a good shot off. With the talents we're starting marticulate into the US midfield (Donovan, Beasley, Gaven, Convey) over the past few years our forwards don't have to be quite so creative for them to get great chances because our A-Mids are good enough to supply consistent balls. Its about the only reason we can play Brian Ching and get away with it. I can see Eskandarian becoming quite the goal poacher at the International level. It really doesn't matter who you play if all you have is a goal keeper to beat. At that point its up to the finisher to make it happen
I am a big Dempsey fan. You have to love his work ethic, strength, dribbling ability and finishing (although since his jaw injury, he seemed to have lost his touch a little). What may prevent him from being a factor for the National team is his vision/one-touch ability. We haven't seen this much on the Revs. Maybe its because he is not asked to play this way but maybe its because he can't. If he can't than he won't help the National team.
I'm not sure we were watching the same game. The one that was on HDNet had Adu & Carroll both brilliantly finishing their PKs as if there was ice water running through their veins! I thought Adu did well in driving the DC attack when everyone was running out of gas late.
What was so special about Dempsey last night? He missed a sitter at the six and then he disappeared for long parts of the game. I really don't understand why everyone is on this kid's bandwagon.
the sitter doesn't make an impression on me. he's a central midfielder. His workrate, ability to disrupt, and good poassing are impressive. But he needs ALOT of seasoning in the decision making area. His is the toughest position in the game
About Eskandarian: A pretty good benchmark for scoring ability is a goal every two games, or 180 minutes. Glancing briefly over the numbers, I see four players who accomplished that this season in MLS (and played more than 1000 mins): Ruiz - goal every 144 minutes Buddle - goal every 156 minutes Ching - goal every 163 minutes Eskandarian - goal every 163 minutes Ching is 26, Ruiz is 25, Buddle is 23, and Eskandarian is 22. Obviously, Eskandarian has some national team potential.
You're right - their PK's were flawless. Adu did OK, but I think even at this early stage of his career he's capable of better things. He drifted away from the action for long periods of time. But the thing that made me think he was nervous was his uncharacteristic difficulty with his first touch. Several balls shot away from him - maybe it was adrenaline & not nerves. Is that the same thing?
I think Dempsey's had better games. He showed he's a rookie against DC, especially in his decision-making. However, I would argue that NE's midfield outplayed DC's last night, and Dempsey was a part of it, although Joseph was a bigger part. I was basing the vote for him to be called up (at some point in the next year, not necessarily right away) on his entire season.
Appoo, I agree with your posts 99% of the time, and this one is no exception. Eskandarian is great up close to the goal, and he has a rocket of a long range shot, too. Let's see him in some friendlies & see what he can do. I like Josh Wolff a lot, I think he's a great unselfish player & makes smart plays & good runs, but he's lost a step and I'll bet Eskandarian would score a lot more goals. Plus he's exciting & works his tail off & you can't help but root for the guy. Twellman has done well the few times he's seen National team time. I think he *might* be one of those who thinks fast enough for the international game & could take advantage of good midfield service, too. I think he's more skilled than Ching & a good replacement for McBride, even though he doesn't have great size. If he stays in the US, which I think he should, he will probably get opportunities to show what he can do. Speaking of size, how about Quaranta?!? I'd forgotten what a big kid he is. I hope he can play next year (for DC, not the nats) In summary, may I just say, that the competition for the forward spots at Germany '06 is wide, wide open. Should be very interesting in the next 2 years.
I have a Q about the MLS, why is it the DCU and Wizard got home advantage over their opponent ? I don't think it's fair to the Galaxy and Rev...
Very true. As our midfield upgrades the forwards are able to deviate from the norm that the coach wants. So far, Arena hasn't indicated that that is yet the case though. I hope he does change his tune a bit soon....
Huge difference between how Arena brought along Kreis and Twellman, and how he introduced Eskandarian. Kreis had been consistent in MLS for years, and he barely got a sniff with Arena. Don't quote me numbers of exactly how many chances Kreis got. Compared to others and their relative production in MLS, Arena decided very early on that Kreis didn't fit his system. And Twellman has gotten similar treatment. I'm not saying that is good or bad, just that it is. And with Twellman, one undefended shot in the playoffs notwithstanding, there's a valid concern. He hasn't been at all efficient - especially for the "finishing" or front-running forward. In big, pressure-packed games, like those you find in WCQ or the WC itself, you need players who put the few chances they get away. Compare Twellman's regular season finishing ratio (shot-to-goal ratio) with the other front-running forwards in the MLS playoffs: Twellman: 7.78 Finishing Ratio Glen: 7 Peguero: 6 Buddle: 5.91 Wolff: 5.9 Eskandarian: 5.8 Ruiz: 5.73 Ching: 4.25 You can see why Ching's already been called up. He's incredibly economic about the shots he takes, and he's a rare big player who can play up as the front running guy while Donovan and/or DeRosario act as the setup men. Twellman, OTOH, doesn't set up his peers much (1 assist), and didn't finish his own shots at an economic rate. Of all front-running forwards in the playoffs, his regular season finishing ratio was the worst. Long sidenote - Last year, when people were calling Chicago the best team in MLS and predicting that the Fire would walk over the Quakes in the MLS Cup, I predicted San Jose would give Chicago all sorts of problems in part because the Fire as a team weren't very economical in their finishing. People scoffed at the time, but my call on that was dead-on. The Fire struggled in their finishing, and it ended up costing them the championship against a very efficient San Jose squad. This year, guess who has the edge? It's DCU. Eskandarian and Moreno are a lethal finishing combination, with by far the best average finishing ratio (5.69) of any forward combination in the playoffs. It is not a huge surprise they're in the MLS Cup. But, the finishing ratio isn't the end-all, be-all test of who's going to win. Before DCU fans crown themselves victors, they'd better understand they are up against a defense that forces you to take a lot of shots before they'll concede a goal. Teams finishing ratio against the Wizards was 13.23. It took opponents just over 13 shots to score one goal against the Wizards. DCU, OTOH, while not allowing a lot of shots, conceded a much higher finishing ratio. Opponents scored one goal for every 7.79 shots DC gave up, 2nd worse only to the Metros. And worse news for DCU, Josh Wolff and Davy Arnaud are a pretty efficient combination themselves - scoring one goal for every 6.34 shots they take on average. What does all this mean? If a gun were put to my head, I would bet that DCU carries more of the possession in MLS Cup. I'd bet that they have more shots, more shots on goal, but they wouldn't be really be great scoring opportunities. I'd bet that in most fans' eyes, it'd look like DCU were dominating play. But I'd bet that DCU would be playing right into KC's hands. KC will get fewer shots, but they'll be better shots, and they'll finish more of them to win the MLS Cup. But again, I'd only bet on this if a gun were put to my head .
Interesting chart. Two questions: Does this calculation leave out PK goals ? What were EJ's stats for this year ?
I tink that another player to consider is Bryan Namoff...he was probably the most consistant defender for DC this season, has good size (or at least better than Heydude or Dolo) as well as speed. And as he played forward in college, he can get forward. He is the type of player that you only really notice if he screws up, which is almost never. The only thing that hurts him is that he plays in a 3 man backline, so we really aren't sure what he can do as a true outside back.
Re: Apoo can't help himself Actually, the biggest negative against Convey is that he's lazy. On the other hand, you've defeated your own argument with the second sentence from your exerpt. Whereas Gros has a natural position of winger, what IS Convey's best position? He hasn't been able to play [well] on the wing at Reading, he can't mark his own shadow, so he can't play in the back, and he isn't good enough to play in the center of midfield, either. Gros may not have the same press clippings that Convey has, but I'd wager that he'll make more of himself as a player than Convey will in his career. Gros is absolutely nothing like Convey.
Au contraire. He played in that friendly which was the DC-San Jose Allstars (plus guys on suspensin from MLS.) I don't think Esky is quite NT material, but last year, I would have said, no shot. If he can take one more step up in quality, he's got a chance. In particular, whatever his abilities or lack thereof, he's got a fantastic leftfooted freekick, which might be valuable to bring off the bench in a home match. If the opponent is successfully bunkering and it's 0-0 in minute 77, I would like Esky to be on the bench and available.
I agree that the jury is still out on Esky. And your description really nails it, "...one more step up in quality." It's an elusive something to describe, but for lack of a more precise phrase, that's it. I think what a lot of us have seen, besides some obvious skill, is a passion and energy that some of the others just don't have. To be sure, he has some limitations, like lack of size and lack of blazing speed, but if he can bring all his other qualities to bear on a consistent basis, he will be very effective.
Nutmeg, On Twellman, I don't think you'd find too many people disagree that he had a pretty poor year this year. But I wonder whether that's representative of his MLS career so far. On DCU-KC, If all scoring came from the forwards, that would be the end of the book. However, Christian Gomez had 4 goals in 9 games on 12 shots. (Counting playoffs, it would be 5 goals in 18 shots, but that's still impressive). What I'm trying to say here is that the main difference between DCU and KCW on the attacking side is not the forward disparity (though there is one) as much as the diversity of DC's attack. In just the playoffs, DC's 7 goals come from 5 different goalscorers. In the regular season, Wolff and Arnaud scored 19 of their 38. Alecko and Jaime only scored 17 of our 43. However, in most hypothtical matchups between these two teams, I would agree that DCU would have the majority of posession, which would suit KC just fine. This is even the way it should probably have worked against NE had they not evaluated a weakness to exploit in central defense (and indeed it worked; EZ was the player posterized on Twellman's 'unmarked' goal). DC clearly has the better offense. KC clearly has the better defense. I see this as anyone's game.
DC's defense is much better with Nelsen. Nelsen in place of Hendrickson brings DC's defense up to about average for MLS. Still not as good KC's, obviously, but better than what we saw on Saturday. Esky seems like the type of striker who Arena would bring off the bench at 70-75' if we needed a goal. Not with the overall skillset to start, but certainly a guy who can come off the bench and be capable of sneaking an opportunistic goal against a bunkered defense.
That really was a beautiful goal from Eski. He made a thirty to forty yard run with the ball, and then, running at full speed and fighting off a defender, rips a perfect shot into the side netting -- it really was a world class finish. I've always thought of Eski as a competent player without exceptional talent, who works hard and does well enough with what he has. But after seeing him score that goal against the Revs, I'm becoming convinced that I've been underrating his talent. And it's great that Eski works so hard -- he runs and hustles non-stop, which I'm sure will endear him to Bruce. I think he should at least get called into camp, and I wouldn't mind seeing him get a runout in a friendly or two, just to see how he looks in the international game. In the end, Eski may not have what it takes to contribute on the international level, but it's a little too early to rule him out . . .