DC United Magic Number Thread (2007 Edition)

Discussion in 'D.C. United' started by Sundevil9, Sep 2, 2007.

  1. Bootsy Collins

    Bootsy Collins Player of the Year

    Oct 18, 2004
    Capitol Hill
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Wouldn't they drop five points, rather than four, in that scenario? Instead of six points from those two games, they'd have one. It's a pretty unlikely scenario, anyway.

    Not since Rocky Bleier retired.

    Tiebreakers are worth a half-point, not a point. Consider: if we're three points up on a team and have the tie-break against them, we're not four points up on them. If they subsequently earned three points while we earned none, we'd be up on them because of the tie-break. But if they then earned another point while we earned none, they'd be up on us, tie-break or no tie-break.

    But you're right that this is the optimal result.

    Yes.

    You forgot the other results we want this weekend: Cowlumbus to beat KC; Jersey and Chicago to draw; and Houston and LA to draw.

    1. Of the three teams on the bubble for the playoffs -- Chicago, Cowlumbus and Colorado -- I'd much rather have Cowlumbus in. Chicago and Colorado are much more dangerous, especially in playoffs. So Cowlumbus should win, and the other two should lose.

    2. However, I can't bring myself to root for Jersey to win anything. So Jersey and Chicago should draw.

    3. Likewise, a loss would put more distance between us and Houston for the Shield; but I can't bring myself to root for LA to win anything. So, a draw there too.
     
  2. Sundevil9

    Sundevil9 New Member

    Nov 23, 1999
    Reston, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Remember that if a fifth (or more) Eastern Team into the playoffs it gets thrown into the West's bracket.

    So if you're looking for United playoff matchups, Chicago, and KC are likely with Columbus having an outside chance of catching up.
     
  3. Bootsy Collins

    Bootsy Collins Player of the Year

    Oct 18, 2004
    Capitol Hill
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yes. And I certainly don't want Chicago. Hell, I don't want Chicago in the playoffs at all. I don't want Blanco to have the tiniest chance of winning anything.
     
  4. ZapRowsdower

    ZapRowsdower Member

    Jun 11, 2007
    Alexandria
    Vamos cRapids!
     
  5. toomanywords

    toomanywords Member

    Feb 25, 2002
    Washington, D.C.
    Club:
    DC United
    Speaking of magic numbers and playoff matchups, does anyone know what the new-ish playoff format means for which team hosts which leg of the first round? I've got to go to a thing on Saturday, Nov. 3, that I can't get out of, and it looks like that weekend is the second leg of the first round of the playoffs. Is there any chance we host the first leg, or does the lower seed host the first game? Do I basically have to pray we play on Sunday the 4th instead of Saturday?
     
  6. stangspritzring

    stangspritzring Member+

    Apr 3, 2006
    NorMD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I do believe the lower seed hosts the first game, giving the higher-seeded team of homefield advantage for the decisive match.
     
  7. Duffman

    Duffman New Member

    Nov 3, 2003
    Lot 8, passed out
    The higher seed will host the second leg and it looks like DC will be in that situation. But I don't think you'll have to pray too hard for a Sunday game. Sunday is ESPN's national TV spot due to college football on Saturday and ESPN LOVES to air United playoff home games. One of the most popular teams in the league and the supporters groups are the best in the league and are on display throughout the game.

    Last year, they announced our home playoff game date WELL in advance. Once we clinched the # 1 or 2 seed, we were basically informed our game was going to be on ESPNs Sunday soccer. Took a while longer to find out when the away game was going to be. One of the few drawbacks of having high status is that Saturday night, first round home playoff matches are hard to come by unless the TV deal changes.
     
  8. BBBulldog

    BBBulldog Moderator
    Staff Member

    Jun 25, 2004
    Dinamo Zagreb
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    I barely want to play Chicago on Sunday, let alone playoffs :D
     
  9. Sundevil9

    Sundevil9 New Member

    Nov 23, 1999
    Reston, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well, I think two things need to happen for ESPN to commit to airing United.

    1. United must clinch the #1 or #2 seed.
    2. LA must be eliminated from the playoffs.

    You know they're praying that they can sneak in so BSPN can show more footage of Beckham and Albright chatting while in the injured players' box.
     
  10. BigKris

    BigKris Member

    Jan 17, 2005
    Falls Church, VA
    Where would you set the over/under on the number of times BSPN discusses Beckham or shows clips of him during their broadcast of a DC playoff game? I'll go with six.
     
  11. toomanywords

    toomanywords Member

    Feb 25, 2002
    Washington, D.C.
    Club:
    DC United
    Oh yeah, you're right -- I couldn't remember what day we played on last year. (Actually, last year's schedule worked out perfectly for me, as I was already planning to be in New York the weekend of the away leg -- got to go to both games.) In 2004, I was traveling for work during both weekends of the first leg of the playoffs, but made it to the conference final -- I hate having to miss any game I have tickets to, but missing a playoff game was especially tough.

    I hear there was some sort of playoff game at home in 2005, and I have a shirt that I must have picked up at the game, but for some reason I'm having a tough time remembering anything about that match :rolleyes:
     
  12. BigKris

    BigKris Member

    Jan 17, 2005
    Falls Church, VA
    On two separate occasions I found shirts like this in my dresser. Like you, I don't know where they came from exactly, but I know I feel a vague sense of dread whenever I touched them. I burned one and gave the other to the Salvation Army.
     
  13. rugman

    rugman Member

    Oct 13, 2003
    Annapolis
    Especially on Sunday. They play Chivas at home. Chivas just beat the Lalagas Thursday so they should be tired and have to play Crapids in altitude. We need the Crapids to take some points from Chivas this weekend for the SS to be ours.
     
  14. onefineesq

    onefineesq Member+

    Sep 16, 2003
    Laurel, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    yes, but Hercules just tore his ACL, leaving the Rapids, who are already shorthanded in offensive prowess, down another decent scorer.
     
  15. CrimsonChin00

    CrimsonChin00 New Member

    Aug 8, 2007
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Now I ask is if United was in the Middle of the pack; how would you resolve.
     
  16. roadkit

    roadkit Greetings from the Fringe of Obscurity

    Jul 2, 2003
    Fornax Cluster
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Seconded.

    :D
     
  17. Sundevil9

    Sundevil9 New Member

    Nov 23, 1999
    Reston, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That works out, too. The 'Magic Number' though would be greater than the points that United has left. Or I'd have a column of the magic number that the other team has on United.
     
  18. CrimsonChin00

    CrimsonChin00 New Member

    Aug 8, 2007
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    now i catch your drift.
     
  19. Sachin

    Sachin New Member

    Jan 14, 2000
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    One thing to remember is that tme magic number does not equal the number of points United needs to earn. Instead, it indicates the combination of points United needs to earn and the other team in question needs to lose.
     
  20. hasselhoff

    hasselhoff Member

    Mar 22, 2005
    Pretty decent though not perfect results from DC's perspective yesterday:

    - NE beat FCD 4-2. A FCD win would've been better for United in terms of the Eastern conference race, but both teams are still in the SS hunt so either result would have worked out.

    - KC beat the Crew 3-2 on two extra-time goals. A loss would have eliminated them, but KC still has no prayer of catching DC.

    - TFKAM drew with Chicago 2-2. I believe this officially eliminates the Fire from SS contention, and further diminishes NY's slim hopes.
     
  21. Bootsy Collins

    Bootsy Collins Player of the Year

    Oct 18, 2004
    Capitol Hill
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    No, not really.

    Which is why the best result here would have been a draw -- make both teams lose points on us, rather than either of them being able to keep pace.


    The best result here would have been a Cowlumbus win. It has nothing to do with KC, and everything to do with Chicago. If Cowlumbus had won, they would have leapfrogged Chicago in the standings and gotten back into the playoff 8. Given a choice between one of Cowlumbus or Chicago in the playoffs, as a DC fan I know which team I'd pick. Yes, it's true that a fifth team from the East goes out West; but Chicago is only six points behind KC with a match in hand, and we're counting on us beating KC, aren't we? I really don't want Chicago in the playoffs, and I REALLY REALLY REALLY don't want them to be our first-round opponents.


    This is the one match that went as we'd like.

    But the real pain in the ass result was on Thursday night, when Chivas remained effectively even with us on points.

    That Chicago match next weekend is starting to seem like a must-win to me -- Chivas hosts KC and we all know Chivas' home and KC's road records. If Chivas wins, and we lose any points at all against Chicago, our destiny is no longer in our own hands. Too bad we'll be missing Fred, Gomez and Olsen.
     
  22. sch2383

    sch2383 New Member

    Feb 14, 2003
    Northern Virginia
    As it stands DC United is on pace for 59 points (1.96 points per game) and Chivas 56 (1.87 ppg). Though if we lose when Chivas wins, they will get the inside track, point pacing wise.
     
  23. hasselhoff

    hasselhoff Member

    Mar 22, 2005
    Clearly. Second best would have been an FCD win since NE is in our conference. However, there was no way this game could be a total loss for DC - both NE and FCD were an equal distance behind DC wrt the SS.
    That argument really doesn't make any sense. A Crew win may have moved them ahead of Chicago, but overall it would have put the Fire CLOSER to the 4th place spot. As it stands, they are 6 points out of 4th instead of 3 pts out of 4th and one point out of fifth.

    Besides, I know it's fashionable for DC fans to wet themselves with fear over the mighty Fire these days, but it's a fear I don't share. They're improved since their acquisitions and coaching change, but those changes didn't stop them from losing to and drawing with NYRB in the last two weeks, with a measly 1-0 win over the Crew sandwiched in between. At best they're a very average team.
    With the way Chivas and NE (since July 1, they have only three losses, two coming against DC) have been playing, United will have to continue to play well regardless. The picture should be a bit clearer by match time next Sunday; Chivas has two games before then, and FCD, Houston, and NE each have one.
     
  24. Bootsy Collins

    Bootsy Collins Player of the Year

    Oct 18, 2004
    Capitol Hill
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That seems to me like a very bizarre way to look at it. For one thing, it's essentially saying that what the teams do from here on out is predicted by what what they've done over the entire season up to this point. I would claim that nothing matters more than recent form. I mean, I hope we both agree that our April is behind us, for instance? For another thing, you can't sensibly compare ppg between teams that haven't yet played the same number of games. At the end of April, we had 0 ppg, and were on pace for 0 points. One could argue that the only reason Chivas trails us on ppg is because we've played two more games than they have and won them. If Chivas wins their two games in hand, they're tied with us in ppg. Seem like a big if to you? Right now two teams in the league haven't lost since July in league play. Guess which two.

    Right now, if we win out and Chivas wins out, we're tied for points with them and take the SS on a tiebreaker. As long as we don't lose a single point, our destiny is in our own hands. Lose a single point, and we rely on Chivas to lose points too. That's all that matters.

    We have a real fight on our hands.
     
  25. Bootsy Collins

    Bootsy Collins Player of the Year

    Oct 18, 2004
    Capitol Hill
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That's a fair point.

    In playoff and USOC matches, we've played Chicago many many times, and gone down to them every single time. In a meaningful match, we've never gotten past them. Never. Not once, not ever. Some of those times (e.g. 2005 playoffs, 2006 USOC, just to name the last two), calling them "very average" would have been a compliment; but they still knocked us out. Our history of abject futility against them may not bother you, but it's not at all silly for it to bother other people.
     

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