DC United 2003 -- Where Will We Finish?

I'm voting for a 3rd or 4th seed..

We definitely improved the personnel on the squad, but it doesn't automatically grant you great team status.. Just ask the Revs from last season.. Everyone and their brother were predicting that the Revs would run away with the East and go to the final..

Well, halfway through the season Serna was out injured and Chacon wasn't even getting any playing time and their defense was the worst in the league by miles.. Only a rather miraculous 8 game stretch at the end of the season got them into the playoffs and they did that by basically bunkering and counterattacking..

Bottom line here is that I do indeed think we will improve immensley.. It's just to what point that is the question.....

 

I voted for winning the East and I do think that's a real possibility, but it's so hard to handicap next season at this point. I think that the Fire are worse, the Crew improved a little, and the other three teams improved a lot. With the rumor of Metros signing Mario, Revs maybe re-signing Llamosa, and a few other moves including one more for DC United being rumored, we don't even know what the final squads will look like. Not to mention how long it will take them to gell.

I do not think DC United's defense will be as good as it was at the end of last season when they were defending (not counting when Pope was playing center forward and Reyes right wing to fuel comebacks). But if Nelsen and Dema work out in midfield and Ivanov works out on the back line, we could give up a similar amount of points this year, which I would consider a huge victory.

Clearly United's finishing should be improved with a healthy and year wiser Santino. The addition of Stewart for Moreno should see a major scoring boost. Pushing Curtis to the 4th forward with Esky as the 3rd option should be an improvement as well. A more fit and hopefully faster Eliseo will better allow him to play his midfield/forward roles to better effect as well. And, putting one of our major scorers--Nelsen--that much closer to goal cannot hurt the goal scoring. Taking away a defender (i.e. Lazo) and replacing him with a quality attacking midfielder in Dema should help as well.

But MLS--particularly the Eastern Conference--got a lot stronger again this offseason. The question is did we improve enough?

-Tron

 

I really have no idea. After LA, most of the teams are bunched except for San Jose and Chicago who bring up the rear. Those two teams need too many breaks to contend. Of the rest of the teams:

- Colorado looks like they could be real dangerous, particularly if their new striker is a hit.
- Dallas and C-bus both look to be about the same as last year- good but not great unless they get hot at the end. Neither team has addressed their weaknesses.
- NE is hard to gauge as we have to see how other teams play their conservative style this year. I suspect that the Revs defense won't be as good as last year's, nor will Twellman have quite the same year. How well they incorporate JMM and Nowak will be the keys.
- KC looks like nothing special. At times they'll look good like C-bus and Dallas, but that's their upper limit.
- the metros are as yet too unsettled to figure. I am not quite as high on Bradley as most other folks are here but regardless Moreno and Mathis both need to be at or near their career years to have this team be serious.

This leaves United which at this point has done more of an overhaul than any other team. I think we'll be pretty good and the east title is realistic or at least a high seed like Chris says.. But there are still several unknowns on the team to see how far they will go. However I'd be shocked if they didn't make the playoffs and suprised if they got below 5th seed.

 

i voted 3rd or 4th...only cause i cant vote you guys higher than my own team.....your squad looks good though

 

I picked 3-4. Lots of changes in the east with Chicago losing ground (sorry guys but we've been through cap he!! before and you don't heal overnight), Columbus solid but not dramatically better (of course they have good team experience), and NE, DCU and Scum doing some serious retooling. IF we gel then we win alot of games, enough to take the East, no way to predict. If we have injuries then we are just squeaking in. So using some program management analysis techniques, I came up with a probability of 3-4. Clearly this season will be a case of last man standing wins and there will be knock out punches each week.

 

I like the optimism but I think you all are nuts. Have you looked at the other teams in the league? They are almost all stacked. We aren't the only ones. I think we are overrated in defense and our forwards don't have much experience.

I'm expecting the worst so that I can be pleasantly surprised.

 

Who's stacked? The only team that I would say is stacked all over is LA. The Revs have a great front line, a great midfield, and a horrendous defense. Heaps? Franchino? The possibility of starting Rusty Pierce? They'll probably have to bunker again to protect that wall of cards. Even if they get Llamosa back, their defense is a big weakness.

Similarly, the metros have Eddie Pope and...Craig Ziadie? Steve Jolley is mediocre, and they don't even have a third competent defender to play Bradley's 352. They also don't have the wide midfielders for it. We all know Mark Lisi can't play wide, and they traded away Brad Davis. Even if they sign Mario, they'll have him, Richie the Black Hole, and Ricardo Clark (while promising, still a rookie) in the middle. I have a hunch the Mathis that had Bayern after him will show up, but I also have a hunch that the Moreno that played here for the past 2 seasons will be there. This team is so disjointed, Bradley might have considered staying on in Chicago. They'll have moments of brilliance with weeks of crap in between.

Chicago has no edge in midfield at all. A good defense, good starting strikers, but really nothing in midfield.

Columbus should be good. They have probably the best depth at forward in the whole league. Martino, if he can deal with the physical play of the league, should have a good season with those strikers in front of him. However, they still have an awful defense. McCarty and Dunseth are very raw, Daniel Torres was mediocre at best, and we all know what Eric Denton brings to the table. Jon Busch will have lots to do.

Given all this, I'd say if we gel and stay healthy we can win the East. Even if our defense got weaker with the sale of Pope, our attack has become strong enough in both terms of being dangerous and being able to hold possession that we should be able to offset that. Fewer turnovers will lead to less pressure on our defenders. The teams capable of winning the East are us, the Revs, and Columbus. The Crew will need a lot of luck and career seasons from every defender they have, but should finish in the top 3 no matter what.

 

This team is easily a top ten MLS team.

Seriously, I think they'll either win the division/conference/whatever or come up a bit short of it.

With the crap team last year, we barely missed out on being in the top 6. I don't see how the moves can be seen as a negative (remember all the doom and gloom around the "Big Trade"?), and I don't see any other teams making as much progress.

 

I am shocked to see how many people picked DC United to win the East. Add to that there are also a lot of people who picked them to finish 3rd-4th seed.

While I do agree that the team has picked up some quality players (it has also lost some quality player contrary to what most people believe), it remains to be seen how cohesive the team will be.

Realisticly DC United should be in the playoffs as only two team will not make the playoffs (yes there are at least two teams worst than DC United), and more importantly DC United certainly has the talent to make the playoffs.

I think they will finish 5-6th.

 

The lalagals are once again being overrated in terms of talent. I'll not deny that they play extremely well as a team, the whole is more than just the sum of the parts. However, the are one injury away from challenging KC for the bottom of the West. If they stay healthy, they'll do well. I do admire their new-found winners attitude.

Which seques into what I really wanted to say here, FWIW. Our team will be one that nobody will want to play against this year. We've got attitude (even Bobito seems to be maturing into his U-20 captaincy) to spare. No complacency will be tolerated in this vintage -- finally!

Injury will have a large influence on the seedings at Cup time. Tron thinks a lot of the rookies will be great contributors around the League, but I'm a bit more doubtful. Nevertheless there will be one or two surprises in the rookie crop. There are so many variable that I think it is silly to predict now.

So here I go -- . DC will challenge for the first seed.

GM

 

I have nothing but unbridled optimism for this team and this year(fan's perrogative). Some of you people analyze everything to death. With the improvement and maturity around him, Etch is going to return to form and we are going to win the whole damn thing!

John

 

I'm one of those few, like Jose, who voted 5-6th. Like many have opined, team cohesiveness will take a while, I feel. That said, I concur with GM in that no one will take a game with DC lightly. I prefer "scrappy" to "dirty," and I think they'll be disciplined enough to not cross that line. (Are you listening, Dema? )

I think that after the all-star break, they'll start running the table. No 500+ minute scoreless streak THIS year. 5-6th and finishing strong, just like in '96.

But what do I know? I though Al Gore would win the popular vote in 2000.

dadman

 

standings? playoffs? who cares? i get to watch earnie stewart play every week. our 4th seed spot will only be gravy.

 

I am one of those with good cause to be embarrassed by last year's prediction!

I recall that Diceson was steadfast in his early insistance that last year's team would suck (paraphrasing his learned prose, of course).

What say ye, pathfinder?

GM

 

Frankly, I was blindly optimistic last year too, partly pumped up by having a new coach and so on. But one thing we have this year that we did not have last year: depth. Sure, on paper the starting 11 last season looked OK, but after that we were a fright. This year, the starting 11 look better, and the bench looks muuuuch stronger.

With so many new faces, I expect United will come out slowly before they start to take shape. Once they do, they'll run the table. NY/NJ will be strong, as will NE, but by the end of the season they'll be gasping.

 

For what it's worth I picked DC United to finish 3rd in the East last season. But, our change from Rongen to Hudson saw a distrubingly significant change in the number of goals we scored with essentially the same players (OK, we got rid of Albright before the season begain).

I think there are two major differences this season though. Last season we had no depth. This year we do. Even if Stewart and Santino are injured, we'll play an improved Curtis and a promising Esky. That's a better combo than Zambrano and an unfit Eliseo.

With a move to a 5 man midfield and replacing Lazo with Dema, we should see a lot better offense in central midfeild. Having Olsen and Convey healthy for the start of the season should greatly improve our flank play. Nelsen taking Richie's spot may or may not be as good defensively (probably not quite as good actually), but it definitely provides more aggressive passing and better dribbling. It also finally gives us an aerial threat that's not on the back line.

Our problems last season were:
1) scoring goals, and
2) scoring goals on the road.

Our infusion of finishers will help that, and the veterans like Stewart and Stoichkov should help us improve our road scoring record. Also, last season we had ZERO aerial game. This year we have Nelsen, Petke, Stokes, Santino and Ivanov, all of which are 6'1 or taller and 4 of which should be on the field most of the time. We won a lot of corners last season but couldn't turn almost any into goals. This year we should have some success in that regard, and teams that score first and bunker will be made to pay.

-Tron

 

I was BLINDLY optimistic last year.

I do agree that if this year's team starts clicking they are going to steamroll. We shall see.

 

I figure you guys are safe bets for 5-6th place, but I don't think there will be more than 6 or 7 points difference between the 3rd-8th place teams. Way too much parity.

Looking forward to seeing your team on ShootOut.

 

depth is right.. but then again.. look at the players we lost.. i dont think they are much worse or better than the players we gained.. im worried...

 

He did! It's that kooky electoral vote thing that didn't quite go his way... only in America.

Anyway, I'm voting for a 3rd or 4th seed. I think the potential is there. And I tend to be optimistic going into each season. And lower than 4th seed is closer to the bottom than I want to think about.

As far as our depth goes, it seems like we're better off than last year. At least on paper I don't see any names that make me wince when I think about seeing them on the subs list.

 

Ralph Nader?

 

I've always been blindly loyal, even to lost causes (like the last three years). It's in my genes. It must be my Scottish roots. United will go far, that's what I say every year. Last time I was right was 1999.