Cristiano Ronaldo ~ Your Favorite Player Is So Much Better!! Thread

It is not the same because penalties are 0.79 xG that are usually gifted to the penalty taker. It comes down to not the individual brilliance but to the quality of team.

Including penalties that Ronaldo and Messi have won or were invovled in is fine, but majority of penalties are a result of team effort and quality irrelevant of the individual.

For example, if it turns out that Real is winning penalties at a higher rate than Barcelona (excluding penalties both were involved in) this is very favorable for Ronaldo as a penalty taker of Real. It could perhaps be the other way around, that Messi was more favored in that regard. Whatever is the result, it is not negligeable

So it is not the same as assists at all.

 

In the time Ronaldo played in Spain Ronaldo took 103 penalties and scored 85 so he had a conversion rate of 82.5% while Messi took 89 penalties and scored 68 having a conversion rate of 76.6%

According to you an xG for penalty is 0.79 so Messi is a below average penalty taker while Ronaldo is elite on that regard. There's no reason for you to take away something Ronaldo is far better than Messi other than pure bias

 

I don’t really see what point you’re making here. You can talk about particular matches or time periods, but the bottom line is that, overall in the matches you analyzed, the difference in average elo gap in these matches is less than 5. That is a meaningless difference, because 5 elo points basically means nothing.

That really has essentially zero effect here and is all but irrelevant. Both of them missed 2 penalties in the games you listed in your spreadsheet. The notable difference in non-PK output is not a result of Ronaldo making a meaningfully higher percent of his penalties in those matches. The difference here is just that Cristiano Ronaldo simply got a bunch more penalty attempts in those matches.

Just to put a point in this, let’s aim to account for Ronaldo’s higher conversion rate and give him credit for it. If we take Messi’s and Ronaldo’s penalty conversion rate in these matches, and give Ronaldo credit for the extra goals he got as a result of his slightly higher conversion rate (they both missed the same number of penalties, but Ronaldo took more, so his conversion rate is a bit higher), then that’d add 1 added goal to his tally (i.e. he got 1 extra goal in these matches as a result of his higher-than-Messi penalty conversion rate). If we add that 1 added goal to his non-PK goal tally, he’d be at 0.60 G+A per match instead of 0.59. It doesn’t make a real difference and Messi is still meaningfully superior.

Ultimately, if you want to think that Ronaldo is actually as good as Messi against tough teams because Ronaldo’s team got more penalties in matches against tough teams and because you think a difference in elo gap of 5 elo points is meaningful, then you can think that, but I think it’s pretty obvious that that’s a very weak argument.

 

I explained the reason. The whole point of elo comparison is to nulify the strength differences in their teams.

Better team will have more penalties and if Real has them at higher rate than Barca excluding the ones that Ronaldo and Messi were invovled in, then that means Real is better at that segment of the game which favors Ronaldo.

Neither player should be favored that way, especially since penalties are big chances.

You can make a seperate point about Ronaldo being a better penalty taker ehich is of course good, but it doesnt have its place in such comparison with intention to account for relative strength of their teams

 

Removing penalties will always be the poorest level of analysis.
Scoring a penalty and going ahead will obviously change the complexion of the match. In a theoretical example - in a tough CL game where a team gets a penalty that secures qualification, the team may then adopt a more defensive posture to defend the lead - because in real life, a goal is a goal - regardless of provenance. Teams generate penalties, the same way teams generate other types of goals.
What allowed Ronaldo to play more tough matches (and it is harder to maintain a high rate as we will show), is continued qualification and penalties are part of that. To penalize due to bias toward Messi makes no sense.
It would be like removing the WC trophy from his resume given the volume of penalties securing more rounds/qualification.

To illustrate my point, using @OffTheBallMovement's data,
We see performance in different time periods:

From Messi's last CL final appearance: 14-15
He played 35 matches, and G+A of 20
Ronaldo over the same period (which includes years at Man Utd as a non-top 10 ELO team and at an age Messi never reached)
38 G+A over 40 games

In the "prime" Barcelona period 2008-09 to 2012-13,
Messi 32 G+A / 29 games

There is a clear drop-off in production.

In any case, these penalty conversations are always specifically designed out of bias, not understanding. The question has never been about the difficulty of scoring - because if that is the case - we know Ronaldo's shots have lower xg/shot anyway.

 

Describing a 0.06 difference as a "decent-sized gap" is arbitrary and wishful thinking. Over a 100 game sample, this would mean that Messi would only come out with 6 more G+A.
6.
Neither one of them has ever played 100 matches in the sample we are talking about, nor are they likely to ever reach that number.
So how on Earth did you conclude this is a "decent-sized gap" is beyond me.
If this is a "decent-sized gap" which evidences superiority, we can find many bigger gaps in performance according to the same parameter.
Secondly, removing PKs is a joke and inconsistent analysis, as discussed above.

 

It’s a gap that would be equivalent to 2-3 G+A in a league season (and note that the gap against higher-elo opponents was bigger than this). It’s not huge but it’s not nothing, so calling it “decent-sized” is perfectly fair. And the gap in average WhoScored rating is even bigger. Messi is the superior performer against tough opponents. The only remaining question is why. You’re welcome to provide your own analysis on what has made Messi superior in these matches.

Removing PKs is not a joke (in fact, it’s the standard way of looking at things for sophisticated analysts, including on this forum), and it’s especially not “a joke” when I even did analysis that gave Ronaldo credit for his higher conversion rate and it basically didn’t change things.

The discussion should just move to talking about what about their respective abilities has allowed Messi to be superior in tough matches. I’ve provided my analysis on that question, but I’m certainly not married to my theory on the issue, and would be interested in hearing others’ thoughts.

 

Given that no superiority was established, I find the discussion a ludicrous one to engage in. Unless your point is on Messi's clearly higher Whoscored ratings - but I'm not willing to engage on the terms of a system you are on record as calling "arbitrary". I do not accord it any importance - as do you I imagine!

The gap is not 2-3G+A per league season. If @OffTheBallMovement tabulated the stats correctly, neither has even come close to 100 matches against these opponents. Over 100 matches, this is a 6 G+A (excluding penalties for that matter!).
You are free to consider selectively removing penalties for obvious reasons that it suits your argument (praising Messi's WC as an all-time achievement when it is built on the back of an all-time record of penalties), and even if you do so it does not lead to your conclusions. I am not sure 6 g+a difference projected over 100 matches, when Messi never came close to that volume of games (because he did not score enough to advance to tough rounds) is how you derive a conclusion of "clear superiority". If 0.06 (removing penalties) is what you call clear superiority - I shudder to think what you think of Ronaldo doubling Messi's output in CL knockouts past Ro16.

 

The whole point here is that this isn’t cherry-picking output (or including output against relatively easy teams), such as looking at CL knockout stages past the Round of 16. It’s looking at tough matches as a whole, and Messi comes out ahead. If you can find a subset of matches against tough opponents where you think Ronaldo looks better, then that’s fine, but it’s obviously not the whole picture.

Also, just as a mathematical issue, I don’t know how you could say that the gap we are talking about “is not 2-3 G+A per league season.” Like, that’s objectively what that gap would look like over 38 games—which is the length of a league season.

Anyways, let’s not derail the discussion with fumbling arguments fighting the facts. The relevant discussion now is to discuss what advantages Messi has that have allowed him to perform better overall against tough opponents. I’m interested in your thoughts as to what area of superiority has made Messi perform better in these matches!

 

I mean if removing penalties is not the definition of cherry-picking I don't know what to tell you.
Ronaldo played more games against tough opponents in his career, because he managed to score and qualify for later rounds more than Messi. If you project, Messi's rate of production to the same age as Ronaldo, he would fall behind by a massive margin. The truth is Messi's production and games are concentrated in a very short period. And then he failed multiple times in the CL in later years which makes the sample lop-sided to a particular period. Ronaldo maintained a high rate of production throughout. It's quite simple.

 

Blah blah blah. Obviously, giving undue credit to someone for getting more penalty attempts is silly and is not how sophisticated analysis here is typically done*, but Messi is ahead even if we do that. And he’s ahead if you remove penalties but give credit to Ronaldo for his superior penalty conversion rate. Messi was the superior performer overall against tough teams. That’s just the reality. You can cherry pick games or time periods as much as you want or cry about Ronaldo having more such games (despite having lower average output in these games), but the overall reality is clear for all to see. Messi is the superior performer against tough opponents.

If you want to actually make any contribution to discussion, you will move on to trying to explain what aspects of their games and styles allowed Messi to perform better against tough opponents. And while you’re at it, it might be worth trying to engage with the fact that the gap in output between the two is even larger if we look at games where they played against a higher-elo team (which had essentially identical average elo gaps). It seems like the tougher the matches get, the bigger the performance advantage Messi has! I’m curious for your thoughts on why Messi’s game scales up so much better as the difficulty of matches gets higher and higher! That’s the sort of analysis where there’s actual potential value here, not just fruitlessly arguing against facts.

_______

* And yes, you’ll actually find I’ve been quite consistent about penalties being different with regards to WC 2022 too. For instance: https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/p...6-vs-messi-2022.2123982/page-53#post-41314506. “In any event, the only point you make that isn’t just totally nitpicky is about having lots of penalty goals, but I think one can recognize that Messi got a bunch of penalties and that penalties aren’t as impressive as open-play goals and still come to a pretty solid conclusion that Messi’s 2022 WC was the best WC performance since 1986.”

** Also, this idea of Ronaldo maintaining more consistency throughout is nonsense. You’ll find that Ronaldo’s production in the first several years of the analysis is very similar to Messi’s in the last several years (indeed, Messi’s G+A in these matches in the last 5 years of the analysis is higher than Ronaldo’s in the first 5 years of the analysis). And it’s actually Ronaldo whose numbers are disproportionately from a very short period (i.e. 2016-2017 and 2017-2018). If you want to downplay one of these guys for lack of consistency in these matches, it should definitely be Ronaldo!

 

Also, the idea that “the sample [is] lop-sided to a particular period” where Messi’s team was better is actually completely incorrect. It is the opposite!

For instance, in OffBallMovement’s analysis, the year that actually has the most games for Messi is 2020-2021! Meanwhile, the peak Barca years of 2008-2009 to 2012-2013 actually only make up 29 of the 80 matches for Messi! That means those years were literally underrepresented (they make up a higher percent of the years in the sample than they do the number of matches). There’s a very similar effect for the years of peak Real Madrid for Ronaldo (like with Messi, those years are slightly underrepresented in this analysis). This is because in those peak years, there’s fewer teams that are within 100 elo points of these guys’ teams.

Meanwhile, in my analysis of matches against top 10 elo teams, it’s actually Ronaldo whose years with his peak team are overrepresented. The five years of peak Barcelona make up 34% of the sample for Messi. Again, that’s literally underrepresented (the peak Barca years make up a higher percent of the years in the sample than they do the number of matches). And, by the way, it’d be underrepresented even if they had theoretically made the CL finals every single year in the time period. Meanwhile the five years of peak Real Madrid make up a significantly higher 46% of the sample for Ronaldo. So those years actually are overrepresented, while the peak Barcelona years are underrepresented. This is largely because peak Barca happened before Atletico was really good (which systematically meant at least a couple fewer matches against top teams each year in that era compared to later), and similarly Real Madrid wasn’t top 10 elo in 2008-2009.

So, overall, this idea that Messi’s sample is lopsided to peak Barca years is objectively false. And actually if anything this sort of argument would only apply to Ronaldo. So I guess we should perhaps scale down Ronaldo’s numbers a bit in our minds based on this! What a great point!

 

No need to be childish and mocking. You resort to derailing tactics every time.
I'm not crying about anything.
You seem to fail at understanding that a player who has contributed to 6! Final reaching CL campaigns - twice as much as the other player has obviously performed at a higher level more consistently. If Messi gets eliminated in the Ro16 of the 2014WC, he will have great ratio of goal contributions, moreso than if he got to the final and scored in the final.
Not taking into account for game-changing states (penalties) and volume of high performance is extremely silly. Nobody can take this sort of analysis seriously.

 

Based on @OffTheBallMovement 's spreadsheet:

From 07-08 to 20/21
Ronaldo 93 games
75 G + A

Messi 80 games
65 G + A

In absolute terms, Ronaldo has 10! more contributions. That is a significant difference.
We know that Ronaldo has scored and assisted MORE than Messi.
This makes, sense since Ronaldo has TWICE the number of final-reaching CL campaigns (6 to 3) - a HUGE difference.

Let's break it down:
Ronaldo
07/08 3 in 8 games (37.5%)
08/09 5 in 7 games (71.45)
09/10 2 in 4 games (50%)
10/11 2 in 5 games (all Barcelona who were a much superior team) (40%)
11/12 4 in 6 games (all Barcelona) (66.7%)
12/13 9 in 10 games (90%)
13/14 6 in 6 games (100%)
14/15 6 in 7 games (85.7%)
15/16 1 in 5 games (20%)
16/17 10 in 6 games (166.7%)
17/18 10 in 9 games (111.1%)
18/19 3 in 2 games (150%)
19/20 4 in 5 games (80%)
20/21 10 in 13 games (76.9%)

Messi
07/08 MISSING???
08/09 11 in 8 games (137.5%)
09/10 1 in 2 games (50%)
10/11 6 in 6 games (100%)
11/12 8 in 6 games (all against Real Madrid) (133.3%)
12/13 6 in 7 games (6 games against Real Madrid) (85.7%)
13/14 7 in 9 games (77.8%)
14/15 6 in 7 games (85.7%)
15/16 0 in 2 games (0%)
16/17 4 in 7 games (57.1%)
17/18 6 in 6 games (100%)
18/19 3 in 5 games (60%)
19/20 1 in 3 games (33.3%)
20/21 6 in 12 games (50%)

If we exclude Clasico's, here is what we get in terms of totals:
Ronaldo 56 G+A in 63 games (88.9%)
Messi 31 G+A in 43 games (72.1%)

In matches vs. Real Madrid:
Messi 31 G+A in 36 games (86.1%)

In matches vs. Barcelona (including with Man Utd):
Ronaldo 21 G+A in 32 games 65.6%

Number of seasons above 75% goal+assist rate (as a measure of excellent consistency)
Ronaldo: 8
Messi: 7

Lowering the threshold to 70%:
Ronaldo: 9
Messi: 7

Lowering the threshold to 60%:
Ronaldo: 10
Messi: 8

Clearly Ronaldo produced high output at a MORE consistent rate than Messi, DESPITE the years being skewed in age distribution
DESPITE the fact that Ronaldo's are across 3 championships

Ronaldo is also more consistent irrespective of OPPONENT.
Messi produced outstanding output vs. Real Madrid, but against any other opponent, he is clearly Ronaldo's inferior.

So, the conclusion is Messi was superior in Clasico's, while Ronaldo was superior everywhere else and for more years.


AS FOR DISTRIBUTION BASED ON TEAM PRIME YEARS:
Messi 08/09 to 12/13 played 36.3% of his games
Ronaldo 13/14 to 17/18 played 35.5% of his games

 

Clasicos are extremely important football matches against an extremely tough opponent. Downplaying those matches is silly. They are really the quintessential match against a tough opponent. But maybe that’s a good place to start here, since you’re otherwise just trying to come up with nonsense ways to muddy the waters of Messi’s superiority overall against tough opponents (much of which is self-defeating, such as showing Ronaldo had more years with below 0.5 G+A vs. tough opponents, while arguing he was more consistent), and the more important question right now should actually be what made Messi superior in those matches. You admit here that “Messi was superior in Clasicos.” So why do you think that was? What about Messi and Ronaldo allowed Messi to excel more in those matches?

 

I'm not downplaying the matches at all. I am providing clarity.
The facts are simply - Messi was superior at Clasico's. Ronaldo was inferior at Clasico's. Ronaldo was superior against the rest of the world - and FOR LONGER.

But I can answer your question in another post, wait.

 

For me it seems like the gap is actually smaller between Messi and Ronaldo in bigger games. The answer why he is a better performer is ultimately down to him being a better player. Better question would be is Ronaldo a better performer in big games than Messi relative to their overall abilities.

 

I await your analysis.

Just as a factual matter, though, your breakdown of numbers with and without Clasicos is not entirely right. For instance, Messi had 34 goals against Real Madrid in the matches in OffBallMovement’s spreadsheet, not 31. Meanwhile, you are subtly double-counting Ronaldo’s two-goal match against Barcelona when he was with Juventus, including it under your non-Clasico numbers and in your matches against Barcelona (and similarly you’re subtly double-counting Messi’s PSG matches against RM where he didn’t score). Technically that’s correct given the wording you used, but it’s pretty highly misleading. If you want to draw a distinction between Clasico vs. non-Clasico or Against-Barcelona/RM vs. Not-Against-Barcelona/RM, then you can do one of the two, but you shouldn’t blur the lines between the two in a way that allows you to subtly count good stuff for Ronaldo and bad stuff for Messi on both sides of the ledger.

Anyways, taking Against-Barcelona/RM vs. Not-Against-Barcelona/RM as the relevant distinction, I should note that against Barcelona/RM, it’s 0.76 non-PK G+A for Messi vs. 0.47 non-PK G+A for Ronaldo, and against other teams, it’s 0.58 non-PK G+A for Messi vs. 0.66 non-PK G+A for Ronaldo. So you have actually identified a distinction in which we can cherry-pick games and find Ronaldo ahead on one side of the equation. But, of course, Messi’s ahead by a massive amount on the other side of the equation, and the matches on that other side of the equation are extremely important and against extremely tough opponents. Those matches are a really significant part of their against-tough-opponent resume!

 

If I made a tabulation error, I can assure you I made an honest mistake. Thanks for pointing it out and I will double check and amend accordingly.
If you think I have the time to run various types of stats and cherrypick more favorable ones - you are mistaken. I excluded Clasicos. There is a difference between a Real vs. Barca match and Man Utd vs Barca match which I INCLUDED - different beast. Are you sure I DOUBLE-COUNTED a match?? That sounds extremely unlikely since I was selecting excel cells - you can't double count a cell.
Will gladly correct if there is an error.
I did not blur any lines FYI. Clasico is a different beast to a PSG vs. Real match.
Again, if there was a tabulation error - I will gladly accept the correction and modify the post accordingly.

 

I think you’re misunderstanding my point. The point is that you presented two sides of the ledger, but it was done in a subtle way where these players’ matches against Barcelona/RM when they were with non-Barcelona/RM teams counted under both sides of things. Basically, there’s a small number of games that are included in both non-Clasico and Against-Barcelona/RM matches (which were the two categories you presented information on). And, not coincidentally, it just so happens that, in those matches you counted in both sides of the ledger, Ronaldo had a good G+A per match in those games, and Messi didn’t. Again, the bottom line is that you can draw a distinction between Clasico vs. non-Clasico or Against-Barcelona/RM vs. Not-Against-Barcelona/RM, but it is very misleading to blur the line between the two and basically compare Against-Barcelona/RM vs. non-Clasico, since that just counts some matches on both sides.

 

This is a valid interpretation. After all, overall in the years in question, Messi had 1.25 G+A per match, compared to 1.10 G+A per match for Ronaldo. In non-PK G+A terms, it was 1.13 for Messi, compared to 0.94 for Ronaldo. Meanwhile, the average WhoScored rating was 8.55 for Messi and 7.97 for Ronaldo. So yeah, the G+A gap and even the WhoScored gap are actually a bit larger overall than they are specifically in the matches against tough opponents. So yeah, perhaps the answer is just that he’s simply a better player, rather than raising his game more against tough opponents. Definitely a very valid interpretation!

 

Messi's clasico's (TRANSFERMARKT stats, so wide assists)

CL 2nd leg Wed, 4/27/11 Madrid red card, then Messi scores 2 goals
CL 1st leg Tue, 5/3/11 No contribution in 1-1 tie

La Liga
05/06
1 assist in 3-0 win
06/07
No contribution in 0-2 loss
3 goals in 3-3 tie
07/08
1 assist in 4-1 loss
08/09
1 goal in 2-0 win (2nd goal at 89th) - 1 penalty given to barcelona that etoo failed to convert
2 goals + 1 assist in 6-2 win
9/10
No contribution in 1-0 win
1 goal in 2-0 win
10/11
2 assists for goals 3 and 4 in 5-0 win
1 penalty goal after Real Madrid red card in 1-1 tie
11/12
1 assist in 3-1 win
No contribution in 1-2 loss
12/13
2 goals in 2-2 tie
1 goal in 1-2 loss
13/14
1 assist, 3 goals including 2 penalties in 4-3 win
No contribution in 2-1 win
14/15
No contribution in 1-3 loss. Real Madrid given a penalty (Ronaldo converted)
1 assist (set piece) in 2-1 win.
15/16
No contribution in 4-0 win
No contribution in 2-1 loss
16/17
No contribution in 1-1 tie
1 goal then Real Madrid red card then 1 goal.
17/18
Real madrid red card then 1 goal + 1 assist.
Barcelona red card THEN Messi goal (when down to 10men!)
18/19
No goal contribution in 1-0 win
(sat out 5-1 Barcelona victory)
19/20
No goal contribution in 0-0
No goal contribution in 0-2 loss.
20/21
No goal contribution in 1-3 loss (penalty awarded to Madrid)
No goal contribution in 1-2 loss

Copa Del Rey
10/11
No goal contribution in 0-1 loss
11/12
1 assist in 2-1 win
1 assist in 2-2 tie
12/13
1 assist in 1-1 tie
No contribution in 1-3 loss. Real Madrid Penalty converted by Ronaldo.
13/14
No contribution in 1-2 loss.
18/19
No contribution in 1-1 tie
No contribution in 3-0 win. Barcelona penalty converted by Suarez.

Supercopa (*Not sure if @OffTheBallMovement counted these)
11/12
1 goal, 1 assist in 2-2 tie
2 goals, 1 assist in 3-2 win
12/13
1 penalty goal in 3-2 win
1 goal (FK) in 1-2 loss. Barcelona red card.
17/18
1 penalty goal in 1-3 loss. Additionally, Real Madrid red card (Ronaldo out).
No contribution in 0-2 loss


I have compiled all the data. Will sort through it. But I think a cursory look reveals a lot of answers already!

 

The actual productive question was for you to actually analyze what about their games (or perhaps the matchup or their mentality or something) made Messi superior in Clasicos, not for you to try to parse through data to try to see if you can squint and find some way you can downplay the numbers. You’ve already admitted Messi was the superior Clasico performer. I’m asking you to analyze why that was, at an actual footballing level.

 

Oh just you wait.

 

I think the conclusions one can draw about these numbers is overwhelmingly clear.