Honestly, Attendance is higher than I thought would be required to keep the league solvent. I estimated around 3600 per game to break even on a $1.5 million operating budget. I'm cautiously optimistic about the future of these teams. Except York 9, which we all know is a vanity project of Jim Brennan.
I have also compiled this list of the teams' average attendance for the spring season as a percentage of their census metro population. This gives an idea of how well each team is penetrating its market. (For York I used York region's population rather than the Toronto metro population that York is part of by Statscan's forumlation.) Hamilton: 1.08% (787 000 metro population) Winnipeg: 0.80 (832 000) Halifax: 1.38 (431 000) Calgary: 0.23 (1 486 000) Victoria: 0.86 (396 000) Edmonton: 0.23 (1 421 000) York: 0.25 (1 110 000) Victoria is the team that stands out to me by this metric. Their average attendance is lower than most but they're doing better than most in comparison to market size.
Can you include a link to where you're getting the image from, @Robert Borden. While the image does give Bespoke_FC credit, we also want to give the link so people can go follow them as well.
Credit to Bespoke Week 12 #CanPL attendance. Strong numbers continue in Halifax, but we're still not seeing a summer bump in York or on Vancouver Island. #HFXWanderersFC #York9FC #PacificFC pic.twitter.com/Ob6mUb0Jo5— Bespoke FC (@Bespoke_FC) July 17, 2019
Another double dip of #CanPL attendance for weeks 13 and 14. What's going on in Edmonton (besides lousy weather?), signs of life in North York? #FCEd #York9FC pic.twitter.com/4XSyL0auKM— Bespoke FC (@Bespoke_FC) July 29, 2019
We have our 1st "viewership" number regarding the 1st game of CPL OVER 1 MILLION https://canpl.ca/article/commemorating-cpl-a-list-of-historic-1sts-in-2019-so-far "There were many, many historic moments in this matchup between two fast foes, though the Telfer goal will likely be regarded as the most iconic. For those roughly 18,000 or so who watched the game live, and the over 1 million watching on CBC or OneSoccer, this match kicked off a series of historic moments which followed."
CPL Week 15 Attendance Report : FCE with 3rd highest crowd of the year, HFX at capacity again, York9 with over 2400. pic.twitter.com/bnC9wVr0b5— Leonardo (@Leonard_FC) August 11, 2019 CPL Attendance Report Week 16 : Cavalry FC with 3600+ on a Friday, Valour FC at just under 5K, and York9 up a few hundred from their last match at 2748. pic.twitter.com/nv4Y63dLJ1— Leonardo (@Leonard_FC) August 20, 2019
Bespoke is back Are the weeks getting shorter? It feels like they're getting shorter. Anyway, here's 3 weeks' worth of #CanPL attendance. Draw your own conclusions. pic.twitter.com/IUBepAZb2P— Bespoke FC (@Bespoke_FC) August 20, 2019 Also some perspective on attendances For those predicting the demise of the #CanPL due to attendance, here's some perspective YTD CPL (Year 1)🇨🇦 4,4152018 Average attendance 🇦🇹6,389🇭🇷2,732🇨🇿5,552🇫🇮2,308🇬🇷5,356🇩🇰6,269🇧🇻5,864🇸🇪8,448🇵🇱9,040🇷🇸2,148This league's going nowhere.— Alex Rupert (@alexanderupert) August 20, 2019
After the initial outburst of large, first-game-ever crowds, the average attendance has reached a steady state of just over or just under 4000 depending on which teams have home games that week. The list of attendances provided by Alex Rupert is interesting but irrelevant. None of those leagues have the same expenses, ticket prices, TV deals, number of games, etc. as the CPL. What matters is the attendance required to support the CPL in the reality within which the CPL operates. League officials have been quoted giving various figures for this number but it seems to be about 6000. I've seen as low as 5000 and as high as 7000. I'm sure it varies a bit by team anyway. But let's use 6000. The league average of ~4500. That means the league needs to improve attendance by ~33% to achieve the level that the league itself says it needs to be viable. There have also been media releases about how much the owners are planning to spend on the league in the first five years. So it isn't like the league is going to fold. There is time to get to where they need to be. They do want to address attendance sooner than later, however, because 33% is a big jump. The league average of ~4500 also masks the fact that there are actually two groups of teams in terms of attendance. Halifax, Hamilton, and Winnipeg are all around 6000 even if you take out their first ever home game. These teams are fine. The rest range from 2600 to 3500 (only Calgary is over 3000 if you remove the big first ever home game). These teams all need to at least double their attendance to hit the league's target. That's a pretty big ask. I'm especially concerned about Victoria because they're actually doing quite well in terms of the percentage of their market coming to games but they still need to double it. So in a seven team league, four teams are currently not viable. Again, it is not an immediate threat. In fact, most ownership groups are rich enough to sugar daddy their teams indefinitely. I don't want the league to be dependent on the willingness of people to pump in money, however. I'd like to see it be a financial success. Especially as they talk about expanding into even smaller markets. Finally, Alex Rupert's last comment made me smile. "This league's going nowhere" can certainly be taken two ways.
Important detail... The 6000 figure was pre MediaPro deal and pre sponsorships deals that are pilling up by the week. You have to argue that they are doing fine even with the current attendances As a matter of fact, when Kurt Larson was asked about Pacific and York9, he said that the owners were more than fine and are steady in their projects to build for the long term. Pacific are going ahead with their stadium expansion and building a massive indoor complex while York9 are going ahead with York Lions Stadium renovations while planning the Vaughan stadium. All of those would be on hold if they were having financial difficulties. The league has been doing fine so far.
^ The media deal will certainly help. Remember also that the 6000 figure was for break even. Things like the media deal are supposed to be what lets the league advance, not what it needs to make up for missing fans to let it stay afloat. As I wrote above the low attendance is not cause for panic. The owners are not looking at a one year window as evidenced by the examples you give above (and Victoria's new stadium expansion). Ultimately, however, attendance is going to have to grow in the laggard cities if the league is going to prosper and expand. It is unfortunate that so many of the markets have so much ground to make up. I'm not surprised about Victoria or York. I did expect Calgary and Edmonton to be 5000+.
I think the extra revenues are accomplishing both, enables teams to spend more to attract more fans. Hence Alex Rupert's comparison being on point. This is a 4 month leagues and he's comparing with league's that are several years old. It's encouraging for the future and gives hopes that the league can get more ambitious in what they want to accomplish in a "CPL 2.0"...don't forget that the 2026 World Cup will be a massive boost to the league. You can tell that the league is experimenting with the schedule during the fall. They had virtually games every day so far and that might help the league figure out which days they should adopt. I'd argue that Thursdays are better than Wednesdays and Sundays might be a better idea than Saturdays. Tom Fath was highlighting that point from his NASL era saying that the league didn't care about team's knowledge of their own markets. He pointed out who else would know better which evening works best than the local team. CPL seems to be listening to that point. In regard to you example of Calgary and Edmonton, what I hear about Edmonton is -that despite the numbers, Fath is happy with the 1st year and said the cost of CPL was far lower than NASL. On average, their stadium is filled on average by 60% capacity. -In their case, the stadium experience is an issue as the city of Edmonton denied most of the team & CPL demands for upgrading the facility due to the CFL and football teams using the stadium for practice. Clanachan seems to be pushing for a new stadium in Edmonton because it doesn't have that major league feel to it. -There have been complain about youth soccer playing at the same time as CPL which prevents more fans to attend games. Manitoba soccer and N.S Soccer took steps to ensure there would be no conflict with CPL and we can see it with their solid attendances. Calgary is very expensive and far from the core. However, the game against Montreal shows the potential of the location if the pricing gets adjusted and by giving it time. Despite the lower figures, I can safely say that Cavalry are among the teams making the most money in CPL. They cost more than TFC (no joke) I think it's about time and improving the overall experience at the stadium. Another frustrating factor that the league is addressing is the lack of exposure on National sports channels. They have to fight that lack of awareness among casuals to boost their attendances.
CPL Attendance Report Week 18 (Includes the Holiday Monday matches) : HFX sells out again, Cavalry FC with over 3000 midweek, and Valour FC with 4300+ midweek & 3100+ holiday Monday. pic.twitter.com/crZdZbitMw— Leonardo (@Leonard_FC) September 4, 2019
CPL Attendance Report Week 19 : Just 2 matches this week after the holiday Monday, Pacific FC with just over 2100 mid-week and Forge FC announcing 5267 for Sundays match in Hamilton. pic.twitter.com/QTYPkIIMwX— Leonardo (@Leonard_FC) September 10, 2019 CPL Attendance Report Week 20 : Forge FC with over 6K, York9 FC with 3863 for second largest attendance of season, FC Edmonton just under 2800 & Valour FC just under 3600 on weekdays, @Pacificfccpl w/just under 2400 midweek and no report yet for Saturday. pic.twitter.com/Ew1K0XDAEb— Leonardo (@Leonard_FC) September 17, 2019
CPL Attendance Report Week 21 : @CPLCavalryFC with just under 4K Sunday, @HfxWanderersFC close to capacity with both a midweek and Weekend fixture, & @FCEdmontonNow with close to 2700 Saturday. pic.twitter.com/w8SlbLUWff— Leonardo (@Leonard_FC) September 22, 2019 Canadian Premier League Attendance Report Week 22 : Three matches this week, Hamilton's Forge FC with over 5600, HFX Wanderers FC with another sellout, and York9 FC with just under 2600 at York Lions Stadium. pic.twitter.com/YiXW12ghlr— Leonardo (@Leonard_FC) September 30, 2019
Final average attendance numbers for the season: Victoria: 3102 season (0.78% of metro population) - spring 3394, fall 2940 Edmonton: 2905 (0.20) - 3318, 2675 Calgary: 3291 (0.22) - 3480, 3186 Winnipeg: 5368 (0.65) - 6689, 4634 Hamilton: 6588 (0.84) - 8511, 5519 York: 2723 (0.25) - 2720, 2725 Halifax: 6061 (1.41) - 5937, 6130 by comparison, Ottawa: 4555 (0.42) CPL average 4291 CPL total 420 524 This doesn't count extra games like the Canadian Championship, CONCACAF League, or CPL Championship.
Considering the attendance for the season, there are some strong points, weak points, and simple observations. First, it is great that the league is up and running. Well over 400 000 people got to see fun, local, professional soccer. Good stuff! Second, three teams have decent attendance while four are not looking as good. We can debate the relative important of attendance versus sponsorship, TV, etc. but I think we can all agree that attendances in the two and three thousands are not where we want to be long term. Third, of the laggard teams, there's lots of room to grow in terms of market penetration for everyone except Victoria. Victoria is actually pretty well tapped into their market. They may need that to become exceptionally well in order to grow attendance. Fourth, Halifax rocks. Basically complete sell outs all year. Fifth, York doesn't rock. That's really bad for a market that size. Sixth, almost everyone saw a 10% to 30% drop spring to fall. It was biggest for Winnipeg and Hamilton who had the biggest first game crowds. If you blip out those games, they're more like 10% like everyone else. Hopefully next year the teams can get that back rather than starting there. Seventh, rivalry games have not materialized the way some had hoped. If you skim down the list of Edmonton or Calgary attendance, for example, you can't pick out the rivalry games, let alone for teams with less natural rivalries. Eighth, there were only two games over 10 000 - the franchise openers for Hamilton and Winnipeg. Hopefully we can improve on that in big games in the future. And also hopefully bring up the bottom end so there are no more games below 2000 (also two, both in York).
If Ottowa replaces York, the league would look so much healthier. the other teams who are struggling still need to grow but having a stronger team would help.
I don't see Ottawa replacing York but the league does want (and need) to be in Ottawa. I still hold out hope for a reconciliation between the Fury and the CPL but even without the Fury I expect a CPL team in Ottawa soon.