Covid-19: We don’t talk about 1-18

More people died, unfortunately.

 

I don't think a university asserting control over a professor's publications is a good idea. Really, that's the job of his editors at his publishing house. Some of his egregious claims would never be made in an academic journal, because they would be subject to review. Sadly, in the past several decades, commercial publishers don't spend money on fact-checking, etc. So I guess it's on him.

I actually caught one of his ******** ups in The Language Instinct: he basically argued that there is no need to instruct people in their native language, anymore than a bird needs instruction in how to sing. Well, ornithologists have actually demonstrated that if you remove a male hatchling from its nest, raise it, then release it upon maturity, that bird will make songs, but will never, ever mate (removing female birds seems to have no bearing on things they have to do: nest building, etc), so the analogy doesn't work. I mean, he or an editor could have called the Cornell Ornithological hotline and a grad student could've fixed that error in about 5 minutes.

I will give him credit on one score: unlike Jordan Peterson, Pinker actually debates his critics. His discussion with Homi Bhabba on his book Enlightenment Now (IIRC) was pretty damn good.

 

Way back in the old times, I thought 100,000, and that was a pessimistic view at the time. Now I'm thinking 300,000.

 

I’m waiting for a miracle. One day He’ll just disappear like magic.

Maybe November.

 

That's my year-end estimate, which would mean about 1,000 deaths daily on average between now and New Year's day.

 

Yeah, we're at 150,000 now and it's hard to think that we are only halfway through.

 

So that would mean about 1 in every 1000 will be dead.
For the Netherlands it would mean 17000 deaths.
It would be considered unacceptable if we would add 2000 more to the current total of 6000+.

 

Is that possible?

 

Repped for referring to the Cornell Ornithological Hotline. The world needs more birders.

 

With Trump? Sure.

 

I’m thinking 500k by January 21st. We’re at 1k+ deaths per day that are preceded by 40k infections per day, and the hardest hit states are not closing.

We are now seeing 80k cases per day with inadequate testing which means that we’re going to be at 2k+ deaths per day soon. That’s 200k more from here til November 3rd putting us at 350k, and the. We would still have another 80 or so days until Biden takes over (hopefully).

 

I'd consider it inevitable. In this country, we had a long, hard, difficult debate about what was more important, money or lives. We chose money.

I don't see any reason to think that things will change until we change our collective mind.

 

Ralph's said she did not follow company guidelines to de-escalate. I wonder what guidelines are for this?

 

President Trump Thinks This Coronavirus Vaccine Candidate Is a Winner
Which candidate is winning in the race to develop a vaccine against the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2? It depends on whom you ask. World Health ...

The 3rd word in the title gives me pause!

 

No new deaths - but 1204 New Cases - a new record discounting the day where they had to report the 800 backlog cases previously not counter.

 

I use their website when I hear a bird call that I don’t recognize and want to identify.

 

"We" didn't decide that, elected republicans decided that. The majority of us are more concerned with saving lives (which comes with the fringe benefit of also being better for the economy in the long run).

 

That seems exceedingly unlikely. And where does the 100 days come from? Viet-nam has never been covid-free. New Zealand's best stretch is less than a month.

There are three much more likely explanations. One is that the spreader was testing negative by the time they caught up with him a week or more later. Another is false negatives. The third is that someone isn't being entirely truthful about their movements ... an issue that has come up in South Korea, with spread through events at both a wacky cult church, and a gay nightclub.

 

It is possible, given that cases seem to be plateauing ... so daily deaths should only continue to increase for another 2 to 3 weeks, before plateauing. So might only be 300,000 by New Year. But could be much higher based on how weak the health system there is, on shutting things down enough.

The high-end estimates are over 1 million - but that seems unlikely to me.