So the Prez has asked Governors and Hospitals to solve their own problem, creating a worst case open market where the rich can out bid the poor. Now it's apparently getting worse, with the Feds taking away the supplies that Hospitals are procuring, and with no transparency. https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-04-07/hospitals-washington-seize-coronavirus-supplies
Deadliest day so far in the country with over 1700 deaths. Deadliest day in New York with over 800 deaths. Total deaths top 12,800 (only 6 weeks since first death) eclipsing the estimated 12,500 that died during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic over a 12 1/2 month period.
The thing about forecasts and models in a situation like this is that they are iterative. It's not like projecting annual rainfall based on how much rain has fallen through April 7. People have been adapting their behavior based on the virus situation. Maybe some who didn't take it seriously at first have decided to isolate themselves, or started working from home, changing the infection curve. Newsom's initial projections were meant to alarm people, but when one individual can cause the virus to be transmitted to another 1000 people within a few days, without mitigations most of the state would be exposed within a few weeks.
Scathing and balanced reporting from "lame stream" media: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-response-delays.html
While the headline on this article is misleading, the subtitle is the main point. The article presents the purpose and value of models well.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/us/california-coronavirus-explainer/index.html "In a measure considered draconian at the time, nearly seven million Northern Californians were ordered to shelter in place March 16." some folks still haven't gotten over it.
Here in Clark County, WA, we have approximately 474,643 people. That's a 2017 estimate, the latest figure available. Our testing numbers are: Number of positive tests 185 Number of deaths 13 Number of individuals tested* 1,616 So, we have tested 0.0034% of the population, or essentially no one. Our testing numbers are laughable. Statistically, it's impossible to say anything meaningful about our county. I bring this up because I fear that a lot of the numbers we're seeing around the country are just as bad. It is overwhelmingly likely that many more people in my county have been infected, but with no data, it's really hard to say. Be safe everyone!! - Mark
You might just die. Fatal toxicity of chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine with metformin in mice https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.31.018556v1 I'm diabetic and take Metformin, but I'm smart enough not to listen to an entertainer/politician for my medical advise. How many of Trump' supporters are on Metformin and will blindly follow this advise? How many Dr.'s might allow it to happen?
Daniel Dale is one of the few people I follow on Twitter, mostly because he provides a layer of protection between the president and my delicate ears. https://twitter.com/ddale8
Interesting re use of ventilators, echoing other info (mostly anecdotal) that's been circulating the last week or so: https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-overused-for-covid-19/
Thank you! It's under-control for now (while part genetic, it's mostly my bad behavior that lead to this) so I don't consider myself any more at risk than anyone else. I might change that opinion if I catch it though
Hydroxychloroquine, in time, very well may prove to have value as a treatment for the virus, but, the president should not be promoting it to the extent he has until there is enough data to really demonstrates its effectiveness. Now he just sounds like a snake oil salesman.
It was lying to redirect resources where they were most needed. So, both. I'm in the camp that people aren't stupid and also for the most part generous, so IMO they should've just said don't buy masks hospitals need them, and most would've followed suit, IMO (like we're all sheltering in place). Most people are good. Rather than reiterating your prior insult of Don (another repped by our "moderator" who I guess is not moderating), why not just put him on ignore, if you don't like what he's writing? Although I'd counsel both him and you to try to understand where the other is coming from.
Here are some facts about the drug: https://medlineplus.gov/druginfo/meds/a601240.html https://www.medicinenet.com/hydroxy...chloroquine_plaquenil_and_what_is_it_used_for https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8278823 here is a study involving 133 pregnant women concluding that it is safe for use during pregnancy to treat lupus: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14613284
As one of those links mention: "Korean doctors used these anti-malaria drugs to treat COVID-19 with some success, according to a paper filed with Elsevier in March 2020, but effectiveness is unproven.". Yes, it holds promise, but, it should not be touted as a magic bullet until it's proven to be a magic bullet.
BigSoccer is your prime source for knowledgeable, reasoned, and articulate discussions on epidemiological, pharmaceutical, and microbiological topics of interest...
According to ABC News, the White House knew of the threat back in November. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/us-intelligence-report-china-coronavirus/index.html "US intelligence officials were warning as far back as late November that the novel coronavirus was spreading through China's Wuhan region and posing a threat to its people and daily life, according to ABC News. The US military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) compiled a November intelligence report in which "analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event," one of the sources of the NCMI's report told ABC News. The source told ABC News that the intelligence report was then briefed "multiple times" to the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon's Joint Staff and the White House".
Objection. Hearsay. [Unnamed] source (singular). Speculation/Foundation. ["could be" cataclysmic not "probably" will be] . I'm making these "objections" in jest but partially seriously so you can understand how I, a lawyer, sees an article like that. Naturally I view it in my own framework. I could not get a report like that anywhere near evidence in any trial for those two reasons because a Court would not view as reliable for a jury to use to decide a material issue in a case. Identify the source to allow cross-examination of the source on background/expertise and methodolgy, and change the opinion from "possible" to "probable". I know it's a news article and subject to different standards FWIW. I'm just telling you how some people view such articles. Here's one of the most prominent U.S. Medical journal regarding the first U.S. case treatment course dated January 31, 2020. Interesting article on a couple of levels, mostly for me in that the patient was still treating as of January 30, 2020 (he recovered mostly spoiler): https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191?mod=article_inline
Interestingly, Clark Stanley, the guy who made snake oil famous, and did the demonstrations where he killed rattlesnakes to "get the oil," made a product that is very similar to Vick's VapoRub. His stuff actually did most of what he claimed. But he was a liar and a fraud. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snake_oil And while Hydoxychloroquine may actually do the trick, it remains unproven. Also, as a side note. My girlfriend my senior year in college spent a quarter doing an archeology dig in Belize and had to take anti-malarial drugs. She kept taking them for the first week or two she came back to our school. They made her very spacey, but I don't know if it was the same drug or not. Carry on sheltering in place every one. And if you have to go out, wear a mask. Go Quakesfans!! - Mark
One question I would ask the unnamed "source" were I permitted, how she could "conclude" (note that this is a definitive word) in November 2019 that the occurrences in China "" could (not definitive "possibly") be "cataclysmic" if the WHO was as of January 5, 2020 not identifying it as a novel coronavirus but as "pneumonia" and telling the world "no evidence of significant human-to-human transmission and no health care worker infections have been reported", and blaming its transmission to food vendors at the closed down market that had been "disinfected" https://www.who.int/csr/don/05-january-2020-pneumonia-of-unkown-cause-china/en/