I had the opposite impression from you. The current mandate has been SIP except for grocery shopping, drugstore trips, doctor visits, etc. That applied to all, including people with presumed infections. Now they are asking everyone with apparent Covid plus household members and anyone with whom the patient has interacted to stay confined to the home for 14 days except for doctor visits. It's an effort, as I interpret it, to stomp out the virus completely in the county, which of course won't help unless adjacent counties do the same.
Ran across this cool visualization that some guy did, based on John Hopkins and New York Times data. https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ I suppose it could be a risky link (don't know who the hell aatishb.com is) but my system is pretty well protected from such things, so always be careful clicking on random links from random domains.
I am amazed at how many posts there are in this thread. While the title refers to "our favorite team", there sure ain't a lot of soccer or Quakes' posts here . Oh well. It seems that this is the place to waste time and to vent. I am an engineer by profession and certainly by nature. Mathematical formulae and models are the mother's milk of design and engineering. Despite what Don claims about the models being "lies", there are not lies. They are models. They do not predict the future. They provide us insight into events we observe in the real world and serve as proxies for those events so that we can learn from them. They also allow us to design machines and processes with remarkable precision which usually do what we expected of them. In that light, I thought I would share the following YouTube link: . It is a clever model that simulates the general behavior of an epidemic. It is clear that it is not trying to model Covid19 per se. Instead it helps illustrate the sensitivity of various mechanisms and policies relative to the curve shape of the infected population. It enables trying out various "What ifs" to get a general idea of the effect of that decsiion. I found it helpful in visualizing the whole process.
From The Guardian today (April 7). How can coronavirus models get it so wrong? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/how-can-coronavirus-models-get-it-so-wrong
The Atlantic: Don’t Believe the COVID-19 Models That’s not what they’re for. APRIL 2, 2020 https://www.theatlantic.com/technol...avirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/
The Washington Post (April 6). America’s most influential coronavirus model just revised its estimates downward. But not every model agrees. https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...ts-estimates-downward-not-every-model-agrees/
Lies. Damned lies. And statistics. I predicted the models would be wrong, and, unlike the models, my prediction was correct. Keep gas-lighting me and I will start quoting right-wing publications that are more mocking of the bogus models used to justify locking us up. 1247575560244649985 is not a valid tweet id
An important point that bears stressing -- social distancing is built into the assumptions of the bogus models, so that's not what is throwing them off. 1247626705570869251 is not a valid tweet id
Here's the IMHE model. Top line: COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020 [emphasis added] https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
More background from Pro Publica on New York City Mayor "Go Out on the Town" De Blasio. (Why invest in your own ventilator stockpile when you can steal ventilators from Buffalo if needed?) 1247514154413576193 is not a valid tweet id
Turns out Cuomo didn't actually need to steal those ventilators from Buffalo, after all. Why? Because in his totalitarian tantrum he didn't realize that his supposed need was based on bogus models. Things weren't as bad as the hysterical "experts" were saying. Is it too late to cancel the ventilator orders? As furniture goes they’re pretty expensive. And not that attractive. pic.twitter.com/CtsMaDsKZx— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 7, 2020
Reminder that the "expert" advice was we didn't need to wear masks, before it changed to we need to wear masks. The CDC's Revised Face Mask Advice Is Based on Information That Was Available Months Ago https://reason.com/2020/04/06/the-c...on-information-that-was-available-months-ago/ February 29: 1233725785283932160 is not a valid tweet id April 4: 1246428235883298816 is not a valid tweet id
Was it lying or simply directing resources to where they were most needed, the front lines? You are witnessing the learning curve. Unfortunately it’s been steep as well.
Harvard law professor on February 28 -- three weeks before Newsom's shelter-in-place order: . . . Supreme Court doctrine directs that essentially all our individual liberties can be suspended if the government has a compelling interest to do so and if its measures are narrowly tailored to achieving that end. Slowing a pandemic is a textbook example of a compelling state interest; and quarantine is presumably the narrowest available method to do so in the middle of an outbreak. Where things could get more complicated is if the government directs much or all of the population in a given area to shelter in place — including people who do not have the disease. If this were a mere advisory, individuals could violate it without being subject to legal sanctions. But that might not make people stay put, at least not in every case. What if the U.S. government, or state governments, issue shelter-in-place orders that last weeks at a time? That possibility is presumably one of the reasons that the government websites are already telling us to stockpile two weeks’ worth of food. Such orders aren’t exactly the same as quarantining the sick — but they aren’t that different either, if they are aimed at preventing people from getting sick. If days or weeks pass and Covid-19 hasn’t hit an area where people have been staying home, most would likely feel a powerful impulse to get out of the house and start moving around again. The question would then arise of what powers the government has to restrict our movements. If some noninfected people are arrested for leaving their homes, I would expect the courts to get involved again — and the outcomes to be uncertain. [Emphasis added] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-come-u-lawsuits-won-163016610.html And you know what is going to tip the scales in a such a lawsuit? Whether or not the government has been telling the truth. Those bullshit models are not going to hold up in a court of law.
I spoke with a coworker tonight whose son is a nurse in a local hospital (San Jose). A patient in his ward tested positive for the virus last Thursday night. All the folks working in that ward were tested and sent home Friday morning. As of 5:00PM today, they are still waiting for the results...
Another fail Don. But read the article where is says let the young go out and how the elders, they also banned gatherings of more than 50. Yesterday 4/6 Sweden added 114 deaths to a total of 591, that is almost 25% increase in one day, they are not under control, they are erupting. They have a population of 10.1 million, while in CA we have 40 million and have seen 450 deaths. So the article said, with no actual data, that SIP was not needed, I hope they print a retraction.
I hadn't done this initially when Don put me on ignore the other day... but I just did after his last diatribe. My god this is so much more peaceful without that. Again I'll point to studies on conspiracy theories: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/...elusions-conspiracy-theories-and-the-internet
Don, I asked you this before and got no answer. What exactly would reopen if we had to do social distancing but not SIP?
Got masks? Governor Newsom announced tonight that California struck a deal to have 200 million masks a month delivered to California from overseas, (150 million N95 masks and 50 million surgical masks), enough to supply California and potentially other western states. From Axios: California Gov. Gavin Newsom is confident that more than 150 million N95 masks and over 50 million surgical masks will be delivered to the state "at a monthly basis starting in the next few weeks," he said Tuesday on MSNBC's Rachel Maddow Show. The big picture: States, hospitals and the federal government are trying to make existing medical supplies last while they desperately try to find more equipment. What he's saying: "The state of California has distributed 41 million N95 masks ... we've received just over 1 million from the federal government. It's not an indictment, it's not a cheap shot, at the end of the day, they don't have the masks at the national stockpile," Newsom told Maddow. Newsom said that he's confident the incoming shipment of masks can meet California's needs and "potentially the needs of other western states." Details: The masks will be manufactured "overseas" and were sourced through a California manufacturer "with appropriate contacts in Asia" and multiple nonprofits, Newsom said. Background: California has shipped hundreds of ventilators to several states experiencing hot spots of the novel coronavirus, including New York and New Jersey, Newsom tweeted on Tuesday.