If and when we get the test that will tell if you have had the virus it could prove your herd immunity theory.
New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio continuing to lead by example. .@NYCMayor tells @errollouis walking in Prospect Park - an 11-mile drive from his residence in Manhattan - each day during #Covid_19 is something he needs to do "to be most effective."— Sally Goldenberg (@SallyGold) April 6, 2020
Thanks Quakes05. I've been a member here since forever and just because I don't post often doesn't mean I don't read. I've come back to be with my Quakes family I guess and it looks dysfunctional. That makes me sad. Instead of lifting me up, it's bringing me down. I guess I would agree for the most part that we're grown ups and can handle it but the instances I highlighted were where people weren't being civil, and it disappointed me. Calling people crazy, insulting someone's service to the less fortunate stated to deflect an insinuation that one did not care about them, and taking potshots at people not in your posts are all behaviors of folks that need moderation. Or at least to take a deep breath.
If you look at the analyses of 1918 -- and there is plenty of material online -- they do discuss dozens of cities, their policies, and their deaths/capita. For example, this page shows 36 cities. Across the board, implementing social distancing earlier -- a week could make a huge difference (exponential growth and all) -- and kept up the restrictions longer had better results. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/
No, it isn't, but that's the language of that particular article (which I cited to show that many cities had been studied!). If you read the prior citation, you can see that in San Francisco it entailed shutting down schools and public places -- not SIP, but minimizing opportunities to mingle. People were also required to wear face masks or pay fines. This is really just a math issue. If you saw the WaPo animation, one infected person in a large pool can and will expose everyone in that pool to infection if everyone is free to move around (and does so). Since we don't know why some people are affected more than others, it's not safe for anyone who hasn't recovered from the virus to be out and about in that pool right now. I know there are a lot of people who think they had the virus back in December, but I don't buy it. This is a highly contagious virus and a substantial percentage of infected people become seriously ill. We would have seen more hospital crowding by late January, which was what I was expecting after tracking Wuhan.
In other words, there are indeed "narrowly tailored" alternatives to shelter in place, which underscores the unconstitutionality of Governor Newsom's edict.
And, I'm not trying to be argumentative for the sake of it. We should be focusing on narrowly tailored ways we can achieve social distancing while allowing people to get back to work ASAP. It's good law. It's good policy. And ultimately good politics.
Three deaths in Santa Clara County yesterday, April 6 (42 total). Meanwhile reserve of ventilators increased by a handful (422 total). https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-coronavirus/Pages/dashboard.aspx
Feel free to bring a class action lawsuit, but if SIP were clearly unconstitutional, I'd expect to hear more screaming from the occupant of the WH. Instead, he's praising Newsom. Go figure. When a government starts stripping citizenship from natural born citizens, or prohibiting one particular segment of the population from attending school or working, or destroying the homes of that same segment, then we'll talk. It's a slippery slope to be sure, but I am confident that our leaders are mindful of their constitutional obligations, and are guided by their mandate to keep everyone safe as the top priority. Kind of like what we're taught in referee training.
Do you have a law degree? I thought we were supposed to listen to the experts. Newsom's edict is absolutely unconstitutional, and if it continues for months, there will be lawsuits, which will be vindicated. He's getting a short term pass from the courts, but it won't last indefinitely.
The lawyer in my house has no problem with it, nor does my son (HLS) in New York. So if we're talking about JDs as a qualification, I think you may be outvoted, and I didn't know you were a con law expert?
Lawyers disagreeing about the law? Color me surprised. Epidemiologists disagree, too, you know. So do climatologists. And the best medical advice you can get is, "get a second opinion." I'm tired of your "listen to the experts, shtick," and you were just punked by your hypocrisy. If you want to debate law with me, start by looking at the constitutional case law, starting with Korematsu. "Narrowly tailored."
I did study con law, and SCOTUS got it wrong (retrospectively) more than once. Are you ok with the president getting rid of the person overseeing the disbursement of $2 trillion in emergency funds, effectively reverting control to himself? Or does presidential graft not press any of your "that's unconstitutional!" buttons?
They certainly got in wrong in Korematsu, because the government data was defective. (Kind of like last month's computer models.)
Imagine for a minute if NY was following the no-need-for-SIP mentality, their 731 deaths yesterday would’ve been a tiny fraction of their daily death total, just the cost of doing business when herd immunity is your goal. sorry all you dead folks and your families, we gotta let this thing run free and unfettered, government shut downs are authoritarian and repressive and unconstitutional and trampling on my rights.
I don't have to imagine. De Blasio was urging New Yorkers to go out on the town a month ago, at the same time Santa Clara County was telling us to avoid large gatherings. Since I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus, I thought I would offer some suggestions. Here’s the first: thru Thurs 3/5 go see “The Traitor” @FilmLinc. If “The Wire” was a true story + set in Italy, it would be this film.— Bill de Blasio (@BilldeBlasio) March 3, 2020
Uh huh. Get a grippe, America. The flu is a much bigger threat than coronavirus, for now. https://t.co/71OsdttcXT— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) February 1, 2020
But if you were a govt official you’d be telling folks to just go about their daily lives. No need for SIP. Right.
How many times do I have to repeat myself? Shelter in place is not synonymous with social distancing. There are lots of narrowly tailored alternatives to the Governor's unconstitutional decree.
So, herd immunity has to be tailored to the herd because we’re not all part of the same herd and this pandemic isn’t really global. It would be fascinating to get your take on how the governor’s decree should be tailor made for your unique neighborhood like a custom suit. Because that’s completely laughable.
It may be laughable to you, but it's the law. The government has to have a compelling interest and a narrowly tailored solution in order to curtail your civil liberties. Combating coronavirus is undoubtedly a compelling interest, but Newsom's order is undeniably not narrowly tailored. So, again, if it's short term, with a definite ending, or clear criteria for extension (as @Earthshaker has inferred), a lock down decree can probably pass muster. But an indefinite order cannot, especially when there are more narrowly-tailored alternatives. And especially when the justification was based on phony data, as Newsom's was. The data we're seeing after three weeks shows that the models he relied upon were ridiculously exaggerated.