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Discussion in 'Coach' started by elessar78, Jun 27, 2020.
@NewDadaCoach You are making up statistics (it's high but not 80%). Running around outdoors is not risky, but.... Sharing water bottles is risky. Hugging, high five-ing and hand shaking are risky. Car pooling is risky. Bunching together for a 20 minute lecture is risky. Group goal celebrations are risky. You get the picture. Coaches cannot control the parents so they can't stop the car pooling.
Ok I will amend my statement, it's more like 40% in nursing homes, but 80% of deaths are those over 65 with comorbidities. *
And the fatality rate is dropping. Many promising treatments. If you get treated early it's extremely unlikely that you die.
I think it would be logical to not do the things you listed. Adjust the behavior to avoid unnecessary contact outside of the game. If you car pool then roll down the windows a bit. Use common sense. But you can't police every movement.
NY Times cited this study today: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/10/20-1315_article
ages 10-19 spread the virus really well to people at home
masking, hygiene, social distancing helps a lot
Most extensive study on children/covid spread so far: We analyzed reports for 59,073 contacts of 5,706 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) index patients reported in South Korea during January 20–March 27, 2020. Of 10,592 household contacts, 11.8% had COVID-19. Of 48,481 nonhousehold contacts, 1.9% had COVID-19.
Dr. Ashish Jha (you should follow this guy @ashishkjha on twitter btw if you care about this stuff) , director of the Harvard Global Health Institute: The new study “is very carefully done, it’s systematic and looks at a very large population,” Dr. Jha said. “It’s one of the best studies we’ve had to date on this issue.”
Some of my highlights:
Given the high infection rate within families, personal protective measures should be used at home to reduce the risk for transmission (6).
A contact survey in Wuhan and Shanghai, China, showed that school closure and social distancing significantly reduced the rate of COVID-19 among contacts of school-aged children (8)
Children who attend day care or school also are at high risk for transmitting respiratory viruses to household members (10).
a recent report from Shenzhen, China, showed that the proportion of infected children increased during the outbreak from 2% to 13%, suggesting the importance of school closure (11).
Our large-scale investigation showed that pattern of transmission was similar to those of other respiratory viruses (12).
Although the detection rate for contacts of preschool-aged children was lower, young children may show higher attack rates when the school closure ends, contributing to community transmission of COVID-19.
social distancing and personal hygiene will remain the most viable options for prevention.
Understanding the role of hygiene and infection control measures is critical to reducing household spread, and the role of masking within the home, especially if any family members are at high risk, needs to be studied.
We showed that household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was high if the index patient was 10–19 years of age.
Table 2 (pretty illuminating)
@NewDadaCoach -- are you a public health specialist or epidemiologist?
If so keep talking, otherwise stop talking about stuff you know nothing about. I trust the experts within the Soccer Bureaucracy (US Youth Soccer/State Associations/local clubs) to make the right choices in terms of safety.
Your fantasy of having your 6 year old turn pro won't be damaged by missing another seasoon
The decisions about what our rec program will look like in the fall are actively underway this weekend. It will interesting to see where we come out
I see, you only listen to doctors. Great:
The academic, physical and mental upsides associated with returning children to schools outweigh the risks, the American Academy of Pediatrics concludes.
@NewDadaCoach That is the White House's mischaracterization of what AAP said. They just said that fully opening schools should be the goal for administrators. They never said that schools should reopen now. They want schools to reopen when its safe, which is not now.
This is the AAP response to Trump's threat to stop funding for schools that don't fully reopen.
"Reopening schools in a way that maximizes safety, learning, and the well-being of children, teachers, and staff will clearly require substantial new investments in our schools and campuses. We call on Congress and the administration to provide the federal resources needed to ensure that inadequate funding does not stand in the way of safely educating and caring for children in our schools. Withholding funding from schools that do not open in person fulltime would be a misguided approach, putting already financially strapped schools in an impossible position that would threaten the health of students and teachers."
futhermore... you should know that
1) there is no consensus amongst epidemiologists, doctors, and scientists.
2) epidemiologists have been spectacularly wrong. Of note, famed epidemologist Neil Ferguson, who predicted 500k UK deaths and 2 million US deaths from Covid, and resigned due to his failure.
His prior "predictions" --
Ferguson was behind the disputed research that sparked the mass culling of eleven million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that up to 150,000 people could die. There were fewer than 200 deaths. . . .
In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from BSE.
In 2005, Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.
In 2009, a government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a “reasonable worst-case scenario” was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.
But hey jmnva, keep gobbling up that fear porn.
@NewDadaCoach Apparently you don't understand the difference between "worst" case and "likely" case. Jmnva doesn't deserve your scorn.
This is fanciful stuff. I highly doubt US News is pushing a narrative that supports Trump.
The article was quite clear - it's a risk reward balance and the rewards outweigh the risks.
The problem with only buying into an epidemiologist, is that they are just looking at potential spread, they are not assessing reward vs risk. They are just providing one part of a 2 part equation.
I just flew from Ohio to LA (corona hotspot), with a 2 hour layover in Vegas. I went to the beach, ate at a restaurant (outdoor patio), stayed in a hotel, and met up with friends. And rode in Ubers and on a shuttle bus and LA subway. Then flew to Sacramento where I played soccer with a bunch of heavy breathing sweaty people.
As long as you wear a mask and get good ventilation (open the windows) you'll probably be ok.
I'm not saying don't wear a mask or social distance. Do those things. But if you are outdoors you have less to worry about than indoors.
We must get on with life. Lockdowns cause depression. Do you want our kids to be depressed and contemplate suicide? It's happened.
I'd rather get on with life and risk getting covid (while mitigating the risk with masks and stuff). That makes the most sense to me.
My friends and colleagues in Spain, Germany, Australia, China, Switzerland, Netherlands have essentially controlled the virus. They have outbreaks but they can identify and lockdown those areas.
They can go mask free now. They didn't dawdle and waste time debating the merits.Their kids have been back in school.
This virus is controllable. We just keep putzing around with our opinions while others have followed the hard science.
I've worn the snood in winter when playing in winter. Never even thought my oxygen intake dropped. I'm considering having my kid, at least wear a mask while playing.
Main concern is that viruses can live in your system, dormant for decades-shingles, polio, original SARS, herpes all have been shown To stay in the system indefinitely.
My biggest concern would be the safety risk related to getting pulled down by it or getting it caught on someone/something. I haven't seen any guidelines about wearing them in games.
I hear you on the long term effect. The chicken pox/shingles concern is something I've thought about too. All the talk of kids being resilient enough to handle it neglects the longer term concerns that we have no idea about at this point.
One thing fortunate about this disease is the time in which it's happening. 10-20 years ago, our ability to sequence genes, make things in labs—no where near what we are capable of today. MIT published a finding that scientists are cranking out about 5,000 studies PER WEEK related to COVID.
I think you're being overly fearful. There's no proof that this virus lives dormant.
It is a virus that is one in the family of coronaviruses (corona as in crown - they have protein spikes which attach to ACE receptors). They have been around forever, some cause common cold symptoms.
Kids need to be exposed to nominal levels of pathogens in order to build their immune system. Studies show that kids who are exposed to too few germs are more likely to get sick in adulthood.
You guys are missing the most important point. While I am concerned by children's health, the bigger danger of reopening schools during an uncontrolled pandemic is to the community. It is like throwing gasoline on a pandemic fire. That is why the experts say that new infection rates have to be below a certain point before reopening schools is safe.
The CDC now seems to side with re-opening schools.
"Extended school closure is harmful to children."
How about we just put kids first. They are the future. Let's not make it all about us.
So now it's Pediatricians and the CDC who recommend kids be in school. Common sense seems to be gaining steam thank god.
They do not. To placate Trump they supplimented their earlier advice with a discussion of the cons of closed schools and advised parents and educators that they should consider these cons when making any decision about school attendance. It expressly states that the new paper supplements earlier advice. They didn't change the earlier advice. Schools should be reopened safely. That means a low rate of new cases, not an out of control epidemic like we have in too many states.
The complication is that, unless we restrict people's movement, we can't have safe areas. The Republican party doesn't like wearing a mask. How do you think that they feel about travel restrictions? The weird thing was that early on Florida restricted travel by New Yorkers, but then kept their beaches open. Many Republican Governors have not been paying attention to the CDC and up until recently were making decisions based on politics rather than science. They foolishly followed Trump's demands to reopen the economy too early and we all are paying the price. This foolishness is gutting the economy which already went into recession in February before the shut down.
I formally complained to the NY Times about the false article claiming that the CDC called for schools to reopen. I hope that they print a retraction.
The APA also advises that schools be reopened safely. Their latest statement opposed Trump's threats to withhold funding from schools that don't open next month. There is false information being circulated on social media by propagandists lying about the APA's position. Go to the source, don't trust what you read on social media telling what someone else said.
My state is/was below that rate by tenths of a percentage point. Which is no guarantee that it will stay below that. Main reason many are considering reopening-the metric is met.
I'm personally doing a wait and see with my kids and doing online. The loss of maybe 3 months will not be an insurmountable hurdle in their education, but it's also 3 more months we get to learn about the virus. Think about how much we learned in the first 4. Also, if I was a betting man, school will be disrupted—and they'll have to go online again anyway.
I was speaking to a school admin and the logistics to satisfy covid protocols in schools are pretty high. A few cases may shut down a school for at least two weeks. My area is a bunch of skeptics too.
The underlying rationale for opening schools is that it allows parents to go back to work. This administration, let's be honest, doesn't care and doesn't know the first thing about caring for children and the need for education.
With parents at work there is more activity and closeness which is how the virus spreads. Japan is using the 3Cs model: closed spaces, crowded settings, close-contact settings.
Also, my friend who is an infectious disease doctor who works in Chicago says get a flu shot. It's one less thing Hospital systems have to deal with in the winter.
Had my first real session last night in a long time. It's scary, but only one activity (1v1) had a lot of them in close proximity for a sustained amount of time, which was less than 15 minutes. Will fix that moving forward or avoid 1v1 altogether or mask them up. Again, my state/county is in "GREEN" phase and hospital system guidance allows for this as long as we follow protocols.
As coaches, I think we have to model the behavior we want to see. If you want them to wear a mask, then you have to wear a mask.
I am masked up when on the field as are my kids when they play. It is certainly not common for kids to wear masks while playing but we see a couple others. All the guys I coach with at least make the attempt and put something over their faces.
In the end the state left enforcement up to the clubs and leagues and it is pretty haphazard.
I don't see many kids or adults masking while playing. Though some do. Maybe one out of 20.
My kid is in a day camp this week. They don't wear masks while playing but they are distanced. They don't scrimmage (no contact), just do various drills. They check their temp when they get in and give hand sanitizer.
I masked up all practice and jumped into play tonight. It's warmer, but oxygen is fine. The other coach was masked 90% of the time. I'm trying and begging for my kid to mask up. IF I play my men's league I'll be masked up. Not that you need any reason, but my mom and mother-in-law are high risk due to age and health factors. I'd like a) to see them and b) keep them around longer.
That's the new realm of "COVID porn"... temp checks are okay but they are finding that people are spreading pre-fever now. Up to a few days. Hand sanitizer, better than nothing but again we are finding that this is vast majority not spread by touch. It's possible, but very unlikely.
Our local % positive test rate is now down under 3%. My kids aren't going to go to physical school but that's a good number going in. I'm praying we keep dodging the surge. Surrounding counties are around 5–7%, so that's concerning. NY and NJ are rockstars right now at 1%.
We did better managing distancing tonight. I think the main key is to not have activities with lines. I think we may have to cut out 1v1s (breaks my heart).