Could MLS Canadian Clubs be interested in an CSL?

Hey nice thread!
I wonder that nobody replied you.


I hope that CPL can work and dont die just like last canadian soccer league (the one from 1987 to 1992)

I asked to a friend from Montreal about the mls canadian clubs in CPL... he said that they would receive less money and they consider the new CPL as a D2... thats a bad mistake

 

Maybe the ones from MLS would not accept it due to money but what about the ones from NASL, USL and PDL??? a league with these ones would be amazing and also would help to make the league better

 

Would an MLS Canada conference suffice rather than a whole separate league?

 

I honestly don't think this is impossible in the next 10-15 years. If the CPL shows it has lasting power, if MLS continues to stagnate on TV, and if there's US-Canada issues, then maybe there's an option for the Canadian clubs to sell their franchises to US bidders and join the CPL.

 

I can't see any scenario in which the value of a CPL franchise would ever approach the value of an MLS franchise. I therefore can't see the ownership groups of the Canadian MLS teams switching to the CPL any more than the owners of Canadian NHL teams would sell and start up CHL teams.

The only way I could see (and, actually, wouldn't mind seeing) the Canadian MLS teams being involved in the CPL is by moving their USL teams to the CPL. That would give the CPL three stable teams which aren't going to fold if they don't happen to draw well enough.

 

But the CSA has made it clear that they don't want the CPL to be viewed as a farm team league. I could see the MLS teams using an affiliation strategy like USL, similar to the Fury-Impact partnership this year. At worst, I see the CPL being a landing strip for those players that develop through the MLS academies but don't quite have the talent to make it in MLS and are too old for the USL squads (which seem to be set up for the U-23 players now).

 

Something I wrote in another board

Long term assuming the CPL peaks? Debatable.

Television:

• Until 2015, the CFL had a bigger TV contract ($200M for 5 years, $40M a year now renewed until 2021) and that's with only 9 teams. MLS (which used to be $8M a year, now $75M and $15M for spanish TV) for a total of $90M per years with 22 teams.

• So for CFL, it's around $4.44M per teams while MLS would be around $4M a team.

• The Canadian TV contract for the NHL is worth $436M annually while the US contract is worth $200M a year.

This above is to (hopefully) debunk this constant perception that there's no money to be made in Canada and that the US will always do better by default. That's not automatic. Viewership drives the TV contract values and as demonstrated, yes, there is an upside to an all Canadian League. A transfer of the 3 teams would drive up the Canadian TV contract while decreasing the MLS TV contract, hence compensations would have to be given to MLS for such a scenario.

Viewership:

• MLS TV viewership is average for MLS in both Canada and the US, however, when Canadian Clubs face each other, it rises in Canada. During the last playoffs, Canadian were watching Montreal-Toronto by the millions, which wasn't the case for the US semi-finals, not even close. Same for the MLS finals, more Canadians watched the game than the US who has 10 time the population.
  
• 3.9M viewers and 10M unique viewers watched the CFL Grey Cup in 2016
• Average TV viewership in MLS is around 300k, CFL is above 500k, closer to 600k

The bottom line is that a scenario where the CPL viewership in Canada can be on par or surpass the US viewership is possible. (Not guaranteed but possible). If CFL for the longest time had a more lucrative TV contract than MLS, CPL could have a comparable deal domestically down the road. With the league being backed by CFL and NHL owners initially, it makes it easier to have the viewership watch soccer as well and go to the stadiums.

Attendance:

• There's no evidence or reason to assume that people would stop going to BMO field, Saputo Stadium or BC Place if they played in an all Canadian league. Quite the opposite.
  
• Rivalries: Montreal vs Toronto can fill the Olympic stadium, and those games in CPL would happen more often than in MLS which would maximize tickets revenues. There's another city that Montreal has a rivalry with that transcends sports, it's Quebec City. Those 2 cities facing one another would be guaranteed sellouts. What about Ottawa-Toronto? Toronto-Hamilton? Halifax-Moncton? Edmonton-Calgary? Sure Vancouver vs Seattle is huge but compare to a rivalry with Calgary? Not even close. Same for Victoria-Vancouver
  
• The big 3 would benefit in CPL at the gates, no doubt about it. People gets more excited by a Canadian team than Salt Lake, Kansas City or New England when they visit. They don't draw except New York and LA but they come like once or twice a year only.
• Average attendance is higher in CFL than MLS.

Canadians goes and support major league teams. We haven't had a major soccer league since the 80s. NASL and USL attendance here are abysmal in Canada but with what MLS has demonstrated and the fact that the league would be in part owned by CFL and NHL owners, it's safe to project a good attendance in earlier years with constant increase over time.

Exposure and merchandise:

• I doubt that the big 3 sell that much merchandise in the US. Not saying they don't but it can't be that much. They would benefit in CPL.
  
• Joey Saputo admitted that outside of Montreal Island, they are completely absent in the rest of the province and Maritimes. TFC called themselves "Ontario's team"...which is laughable. They aren't popular outside of Toronto. Vancouver claims that they are the western team which is lunacy. MLS is completely absent of the Canadian market outside the 3 cities.Those teams never play exhibition games elsewhere nor visit them like the other sports do...Now it's too late as CPL will fill all those gaps. However, joining CPL means exposure within Canada and gaining new fans and penetrating new markets which is way more likely and realistically doable than in the United States.

Finances:

• Joey Saputo has recently admitted that the Montreal Impact has yet to turn a profit in MLS since joining. His goal is to break even within 5 years. Sure the value of the team has increased but the bottom line is they aren't breaking even. Safe to assume that that other 2 teams aren't swimming in profits either.
  
• People seems to forget that having revenues in Canadian dollars and paying salaries in US dollars is a huge disadvantage. In CPL, all transactions would be only in Canadian dollars while travel costs would go down as well.
• Montagliani and officials said multiple times that ownership would be on par with those of other major leagues, net worth in the billions. According to early presentations, attendances won't be a big factor in the viability of the league. Tickets will be cheap initially and owners are fully prepare not to break even initially. The focus is increasing attendance, viewership, sponsorship and having quality on the pitch.

International tournaments:

• Infantino wants to expands the Club World Cup to 32 teams and cancel the Confederation club. Club competition is a huge business that FIFA intends on cashing in.
• Based on the current allocation and on last years champions League results around the world, this would be the club joining the tournament:

Host : Sanfrecce Hiroshima (Winners of J1 League)

AFC : Al-Hilal FC (Saudi Professional League), Al-Ahli Dubai F.C. (UAE Arabian Gulf League), Guangzhou Evergrande Taobao F.C. (Chinese Super League), Gamba Osaka (J1 League)

CAF : Al-Hilal Club (Sudan Premier League), USM Alger (Algerian Ligue Professionnelle 1), Al-Merrikh SC (Sudan Premier League), TP Mazembe (Linafoot - Congo), Moghreb Tétouan (Botola - The Moroccan Championship)

CONCACAF: Club América (Liga MX), Montreal Impact (MLS), Liga Deportiva Alajuelense (Costa Rican Primera División)

CONMEBOL: Club Atlético River Plate (Argentine Primera División), Sport Club Internacional (Campeonato Brasileiro Série A), Club Guaraní (Paraguayan Primera División), Independiente Santa Fe (Categoría Primera A - Columbia)

UEFA : FC Barcelona (La Liga), Juventus F.C. (Serie A), Real Madrid (La Liga), Bayern Munich (Bundesliga), Monaco (Ligue 1), Atletico Madrid (La Liga), Paris St-Germain (Ligue 1), FC Porto (Primeira Liga), FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga), Arsenal (Premier League), Chelsea (Premier League), Bayer 04 Leverkusen (Bundesliga), Manchester City (Premier League)

Intercontinental playoffs AFC vs CONMEBOL : Urawa Red Diamonds (Runner up of J1 League) vs C.S. Emelec (Ecuadorian Serie A)

Intercontinental playoffs CONCACAF vs OFC : C.S. Herediano (Costa Rican Primera División) vs Auckland City FC (New Zealand Football Championship)

• CONCACAF qualification in theory would be for those accessing the semi-finals of the champions league, in this case, Montreal would be MLS sole representative.
  
• Right now, the only way for the big 3 to go to the Champions League is through the Canadian Championship for only 1 spot. Only the CSA can determine how the Canadian spots are allocated.
  
• CPL would most likely get allocated at least 1 spot for their champion and up to 2 once the league expands to 16 for a total of 2-3 spots for Canada. This is a problem for the big 3 who will want to access the tournament. Only 1 of them at anytime will be able to access the CONCACAF Champions league while at least 1 CPL teams will have the opportunity as well and that's if they don't cause an upset in the tournament and bag all the spots.
• Would CSA find a way to give more spots to the big 3? Highly unlikely. They will stick to 1 spot for the Canadian Championship and extra spots would go to CPL. For the big 3 to increase their chances of accessing the champions League, CPL makes it easier.

For once in regards to soccer, we're doing it right. We have an history of being capable of creating successful leagues like NHL (yes, NHL was founded in 1917 in Montreal) and the CFL. CPL will be the next successful league. So to go back to the big 3 switching league, won't happen until the economics makes sense and that's a long term goal. It won't happen in the next decade but once the economic conditions are there, there could be some initial talks with them.

 

The problem is that we just don't know what kind of attendance and viewership the CPL is going to achieve. How much of an appetite is there for a domestic league? How much of a TV revenue could the CPL get? I'd be ecstatic if they got $10 million/yr, as that would go a long way towards defraying travel and salary costs in a single-entity set-up. The Ottawa Fury are doing okay attendance-wise, though with the self-relegation (again, due to financial constraints) we'll see how much interest there is when I go to their home opener tomorrow. FC Edmonton is in poor shape since how well the team is doing seems to have no gate impact.

Canadian big 3 fans know that MLS is at a much higher level than the CPL will be initially and there is a big assumption that they will not support what they consider to be an inferior product. They want "Major League"(TM). Until CPL teams start defeating the MLS clubs regularly in Voyageurs Cup play that bias won't change.

And although the owners say they aren't seeing a profit, the valuations of their clubs has tripled since they paid their original expansion fees. Saputo and MLSE still have to pay off the upgrades to their stadiums, but money coming in from MLS should help decrease the ROI timeframe.

 

All true remarks. It's CPL's burden to make the argument that they are an attractive option for the big 3. If that was ever to happen, it would be a decade from now at least to allow the league to build itself up in the meantime.

 

@Robert Borden

How did you choose those 32 clubs? You gave UEFA 13, and they deserve more. They have 13 World Cup spots (more when they host), and UEFA deserves a greater percentage for a club tournament. You included Schalke 04, who didn't qualify for the 2016-2017 Champions League and are 11th in the Bundesliga. You excluded Manchester United. Regardless of whether you go by popularity, historic success, or current performance, how do you choose Schalke 04 over Manchester United? None of the three CONCACAF clubs you included were in the 2016-2017 Champions League.

 

I went with how the Champions League of each confederation went that year and by using the current allocation for the world cup per continent

 

canpl will be a div 2 0r 3 nothing more then that it will be a lower division league.
TFC, Mtl and Van all play canadians in their reserve teams, yet the Can PL dont
want them...Irony!!! CanPl will suffer the same fate as the original CSL, at least the
CSL had a tv contract something the CanPL wont be able to get.

 

can pl wil Never, ever be as strong as MLS, the talent is not there, the stadiums are not there, tv coverage not there, even if a can pl upsets a mls team in the cup thats all it will ever be an upset cause a dummy like greg vanney does not play his best, Ottawa fluked a result in the first leg, but with Seba back and more regulars playing TFC should win easy..no disrespect to Ottawa, but if TFC played its beat players the tie would be over already.

 

I get it. You love TFC, however, you're unbelievably misinformed about CPL.

 

You must be on Garber payroll

 

Then why did the CBC copyright "Soccer Night in Canada" then? I think everyone agrees that the league probably won't fly unless there is a TV contract but there does seem to be something in the works. As for the CPL not wanting reserve teams, I think that's indicative of the level of competition they want. Look what happened to TFC versus Ottawa last week for playing a reserve-heavy side. The MLS2 sides won't be competitive enough for the CPL.

Totally agree that 1st team TFC should whoop Ottawa but the Fury will give a good accounting of themselves. Nobody is saying that CPL will ever match MLS in quality, but it should be the #3 league in CONCACAF within 10 years by paying players a better wage than most other leagues in Central America and the Caribbean. Talent goes to where the money is.

 

This is an aside but I don't think the game you site proves the point you're trying to make.

Ottawa won 2-1 on a penalty and a terrible defensive error by TFC. Neither the score line nor the way it occurred suggests that an MLS2 team wouldn't be competitive. If anything it shows quite a competitive match up.

That said, the CSA seems clear that they don't want MLS reserve teams in the CPL.

 

The relationship between the CSA and CPL ownership has been analyzed in depth in our Canadian soccer forum.

It was CPL ownership that was very hostile to MLS 2 Teams being in the league. Reports says that MLSE pitching TFC II in CPL was met with utter disgust from CPL officials and they don't want MLSE to try and control the league. I think the CSA could have accepted a rebranding of MLS B teams and convert them in "affiliates" like currently Ottawa Fury but CPL won't have it. CSA seemed more willing to find a win-win to please everyone while wanting the league to be heavy on development and Canadian domestics, reassembling MLS when it started.

However, CPL pushed back on domestic quotas and clearly refuses to launch the league the way MLS did. CPL confirmed that the league will be heavy on imports and high quality is a priority. With the ownership being the ones taking all the risks and really, doing a solid favor to the CSA, the leverage seems to tilt towards CPL ownership. It's safe to assume they now have more influence than the MLS Teams as of now.

No one is suggesting that CPL will be higher in play than MLS in the near future, however, the gap will be much narrower than people will realize and by that, I mean higher level of play than NASL. Talents follows the money and with CPL being the 3rd highest paying league in CONCACAF after Liga MX and MLS at kick-off while starting with a low number of teams, talents in CONCACAF will be attracted to CPL while avoiding a "dilution" of talent.

Leagues like NASL, Ascendo MX, Costa Rica and Panama leagues are about to get targeted by CPL teams willing to pay higher wages for talents while being attractive to other continents Internationals waiting for an opportunity.

The perception of CPL being at USL level is due to people still being misinformed about what the league wants to do and they assume that teams will be loaded with Canadians on the starting XI and bench. If that was true and that CPL indeed agreed to CSA wanted rosters being 75% Canadians than later at least 50%, I would have 100% agree, but that's not what going to happen. I'd be shocked if the overall quota exceeded 40% at kick off and some expect even lower to reflect the current state of the Canadian pool.

When Canada will be ready for a Division 2 league, than higher quotas makes sense.

 

No for one reason,... franchise value. Ultimately it comes down to protecting the overall investment, not yearly revenues. If it is at all close maybe, but based on current CFL values vs MLS,... if CPL values mirror that difference then no.

It's like fiat currency, the clubs are worth what rich men will pay for them and as long as rich men will pay more for teams in American leagues than Canadian ones, there is nothing that would convince them to leave. It's akin to removing a comic book from it's casing, it may seem arbitrary to the layperson, but in business it matters.