It was the part where you said lead. I haven't seen anyone make that claim. Just making it at all is the argument. The thread title does imply more but Yamal didn't lead Spain but he was very good. I think Cavan will be a year younger at WC 26 than Yamal was for Copa and a year at that age is so important. Cavan does have a similar five letter name so he's got that in common.
Yamal was 16 at the start of Euro24 and turned 17 over the course of the tournament. I think another comp worth keeping in mind is Kendry Paez. He was a key member of Ecuador's Copa team at age 17. But started in several of their world cup qualifiers last year at age 16. Paez is also a midfielder, which makes the comparison more apt.
I think everyone is basically on the same page with Cavan vis-a-vi the USMNT. He'd be the youngest player to ever play in the World Cup. Its a long shot for him to make it. A long, long shot. He hasn't even played for the US U17s yet. But hey, if his performance justifies it....................then we should all be open to it. Same for Mathis Albert, Diego Kochen, Nimfasha Berchimas, or any young player currently in our pool. Sometimes high profile young prospects don't develop. I'm watching Keyrol Figueroa of Liverpool for the U20s, and I don't see it yet. People were putting him ahead of Jesus Ferreira on the senior USMNT depth chart at one point. And I'm watching him against teenagers at the U20 CONCACAF Championships and see no progression. I don't see a USMNT future for him yet. We'll see with him...................and we'll see with Cavan.
"everyone" does not include me in this instance i think the chances he makes the 2026 team have been rising and are now a little over 50% the amazing thing about Cavan is that he has exceeded the most bullish projection of anyone following his career the past few years sometimes when something extraordinary is happening we have trouble processing it
We have to see the extraordinary happen on a first team level before we can process it. I'm as bullish as anybody, but he wont' be given a spot on the roster based on reputation. It has to be based on performance. And that means, he needs to really crush it in MLS in 2025. Cuz Diego Luna doesn't get into the USMNT, and he has 17 G+A thru 23 games. Also, it should be noted, a left winger.
I can see where you could be right because -- assuming it's a 26-player roster -- making the World Cup squad and playing the World Cup are two completely different things. Making the team could simply mean that he's still seen as a massive prospect for the future. Playing in the World Cup is a completely different animal, and I would think there is a huge gap between the odds of those two things happening.
I think that’s too high, but I’m fairly confident he’ll be at least a Pulisic/Reyna level talent. But that doesn’t mean he’ll be ready for the World Cup roster at 16. In my mind it’s feasible but not likely. But if he does I’ll be giving you major props as you’ve been banging this drum for awhile.
Yup. The young USMNT stars of this era debuted a year or more later than Sullivan will be at the World Cup. And we were very aggressive with these players. Pulisic 17 years 192 days Musah 17 years 348 days Reyna 17 years 364 days Weah 18 years 34 days Sargent 18 years 97 days Pepi 18 years 242 days Not only are people asking for Sullivan to "debut," but to make a World Cup roster. A year younger than Pulisic and Reyna debuted. In order for this to happen with Sullivan he's going to have to absolutely crush it in MLS for the 2025 season as a 15 year old. Then move to Europe in January 2026, and crush it for a couple of months. And crush it beyond everybody else in the pool. Kevin Paredes scored a beautiful brace for the U23s yesterday. Played ~1500 minutes in the Bundesliga last season. He's played 92 total minutes for the USMNT. Its not easy to break into this USMNT. 26 roster spots or not. The stars would have to align in a crazy way. Can it happen? I guess so. Sure. And if he earns that spot, then we should all be open to it. But nothing will be given based on reputation.
I mean, it is a question. But okay, there are a couple of people who are too exuberant. That said, I think your reaction is way too far the other way. He's not a gimmick, he's not Adu. The kid would probably be the second or third best passer in our pool today, IMO. Could he physically stand up enough to get the passes off? No. But aside from Reyna and maybe Jack McGlynn, if you want through balls ... The biggest factor for a World Cup slot will be roster size. At 26, it feels like there's definitely a developmental slot.
Kendry Paez played in a World Cup qualifier and provided the winning assist at age 16 years 104 days. He scored his first goal in a World Cup qualifier a month later. Not only does Cavan have a good chance to make the 2026 team there is also a decent chance he is an important contributor to the senior team by then.
I think if you’re pick Sullivan you’re picking him more on talent than production. He’s got to play well in MLS for sure, but you’re taking him more because of his talent level. I think he’s basically got to be playing well enough to get invited to January camp 2026 and then really start the MLS season that year strong (as I think either way he probably doesn’t move to Europe till summer 2026).
So one player doing this equates to a greater than 50% chance? How does that math work? Shall we list all the great players who have not made or contributed to a World Cup team at 16 and work out the percentages? He has enough talent that I wouldn't write him off, especially with a 26 man roster, but I'd also consider the possibility that our current midfielders, many of whom are not exactly old men, might also improve quite a bit.
I guess I'm wrong. I was trying to tell @a_new_fan that nobody would be delusional enough to adamantly believe a 14 year old with 0 career first team goals and 0 career first team assists has a shot at making the World Cup roster. That the thread title was just a question, and a generator of discussion. That we're all kind of on the same page that its coming too soon. But I guess I'm wrong. There are people living in that delusion. Cavan Sullivan hasn't even played for our U17s yet. You know who I'll take as my young long-shot attacker? Cole Campbell of Borussia Dortmund. He's 18, which means he'll be 20 by the World Cup. That's the right age range. See, Cavan Sullivan is far from our only prospect.
Well, now you've swung the other way. He absolutely has a shot, especially with a 26 man roster. It would not shock me to see Cavan break out in Spring of 2026 and get one of those spots that rarely plays. I don't think it's over 50% with our pool. But a shot? Yeah, there's a shot. I do agree it's incredibly unlikely he occupies a major role on a team that is pretty stacked in the midfield. He physically won't be there.
Everyone in the pool has a shot. ...................it has to be based on performance, though. Right now, ya'll are basing your opinion on reputation.
No, I'm not. I'm basing my opinion on watching him play. I'm not sure why there is this assumption that it must be ALL hype or that projection is somehow impossible. If you actually watch him, certain things are very clear. He's got very strong ball control skills, truly great passing vision, and fantastic touch. He's tactically very smart. He's got a high work rate. He's got a good sense for goal and a strong shot. And he's doing it against players anywhere from 3-4 years older than him and physically larger. Despite this, he's quick out there and while he doesn't have burner speed, between his current physical edge and his family genes, it's not insane to think he won't have the physical issues that some prospects have. He hasn't physically developed early. Does this mean he will be a world class player? Hell no. Does it mean he will be great? Nope. But I'm not basing shit on reputation. Cavan Sullivan's skillset and game IQ is such that if his physical skillset keeps up and he continues to work his ass off, he will be in Reyna's range at least. With a higher work rate. (I think Pulisic is a hard comp at that age because his quickness was elite). Does a 17 year old Gio Reyna with a stronger work rate make the World Cup team? Oh, that's borderline, especially since Cavan likely won't be as physically large as Gio. But with a 26 man roster ... equations change. The timeline and the US' strength in midfield do present a big barrier.
0 career first team goals; 0 career first team assists I'm not disagreeing about his talent level or his skill set. I'm saying that being named to a World Cup roster should be based on actual results on the field in first team club soccer. So now we see if he can do that. And not do it by the World Cup. He's gotta do it 6 months before the World Cup so that he's integrated into the squad and given a chance to earn a place. We're looking for a serious coach for the USMNT now. He's not naming a kid to a World Cup roster for decoration. He's gotta be able to play and contribute. So essentially we're suggesting he's going to be so good in MLS as a 15 year old that he earns a USMNT place. If he does it, great. I'm on board. I just think its too soon.
eh...the 50% comes from a super duper AI program using deep neural networks, a generative diffusion model and denoising...show some respect will ya
We're projecting two years into the future. You keep repeating this as if it some killer point, but the rest of us understand there's necessary progression here. I think a lot of us are. Players with a very high level talent often make massive leaps in production in short times at this age level. Often they are just waiting for the physical tools to catch up or for something to click. I am not a pro scout, and even if I were, I would not be confident in any kind of certainty. But he definitely seems like a candidate to explode with some physical growth. I don't know that that is entirely true. This is why I think roster size is important. If he actually explodes with a breakout year in the first half of 2026 a la Alphonso Davies, I could see a call up and then the 26th roster spot. Much harder with 23 spots as you need that depth. I am also not entirely ruling out a big leap in the back half of 2025. Cavan turns 15 on September 28th. He'll be far closer to 16 in the back half of MLS' 2025 season, and then 16 in the playoffs. Just worth noting that while he's 14, he's not 14 for long. He'll be 2-3 months from 17 at the World Cup. It probably is. But not definitively. I do think it is as close to certain that he won't be leading the team or our Lamine Yamal. I don't think he will physically be there in the midfield. But on the roster? And I don't think his current production has much to do with it. If he was producing at 14/15 on the first team -- even in a second-tier league like MLS -- that would be an extreme outlier. Endrick is built like a truck - he didn't debut in Brasil's first division until he was 16. Mbappe is even more built like a truck, he didn't debut at Monaco until just before his 17th birthday. Of course, this does mean it's probably too soon. But it also means his first team stats today are irrelevant to the discussion.
Cavan is built like a truck too. A lot of people who praise his skills and soccer IQ underrate his athleticism and power.
Lastly, and nobody has commented on this: HE NEEDS TO AVOID GETTING HURT. Any chunk of time lost to injury probably scuppers all of it. Any injury because there is so little time. 2 full European club seasons are left metaphorically for development, he probably needs to be worked into the team like Donovan and Beasley were, the winter before the cup (they saw their first really important minutes together in a friendly against South Korea in late '01, but of course Donovan debuted with a goal about 14 months earlier, that might have been Beasley's debut, I can't remember). So he has to absolutely murder MLS as a 15 year old in '25 AND get the move and make more progress enough to get the USMNT debut AND stay healthy and hell, I haven't even mentioned perform with the U17's up an age group like Adu did in '03, and for those that do not remember, Adu as a 14 year old scored 4 goals at the U17 WC, and had what should have been the game winning assist against Argentina in the Quarterfinals of the U20 WC a few months later (Argentina equalized on the last kick of the game, and then won in extra time which began are mental block with the QF's in the U20 WC 21 years ago (losing in the QF's in '03, '07, '15, '17, '19, and '23, never winning any of those 6 quarterfinal runs in the past 10 tournaments). That's so many checkpoints to clear with not just a passing grade, but a great performance grade: do well the rest of this season in '24, play and qualify the U17's and then perform well there in '25, kill it in MLS in '25, kill it at U17 WC in '25, earn move to Europe winter of '25-'26, debut with senior team, stay healthy during all of the next 23 months..... That's why instead of thinking this think is 50/50, 55/45, or 45/55, I tend to think its 3/97 to 5/100. It's just too many freaking checking points in less than 2 years, especially when you add the absolute necessity of never having any kind of serious lay off for injury because any injury is liable to wipe out at least 2 months, and probably more of that piddling amount of time (depending upon what it is and how serious). It's just too much. Otoh, it's also possible, it is possible, but 50/50 possible? Too many freaking check points to me. That means an upward trajectory with really no downturns or plateaus of any sort that lasts any bit of time, and a lot of luck in terms of health. That's a huge ask in my view, and too much of one. But it is certainly possible, and so far, he's on trajectory to probably make the Copa America '28 team if we play that, but WC '26? I tend to think he probably makes it at that level (if he continues this way) by summer '27 to winter '27-'28. I just think the WC is coming a year to 18 months too soon.
It's Copa America '28, unless he has perfect health and hits all his checkpoints '24-'26, as he has '21-'24. If he becomes the player hes expected to be, and stays healthy, he'll make it by '28 at the senior level, and probably 6-12 months earlier than that because guys with his hype, if they make it period, it's usually obvious by age 17 (which for him is the '26-'27 club season). If he's not a sure thing in '30, or honestly close to it by Copa America '28, he either failed, or suffered serious injury or both.
As a good corollary to the injury note. People are cooling dramatically on Keyrol (including me), but from what I can tell in drips and drabs of stories (someone plugged in probably knows more), it appears he was out injured for nearly all of 2023-2024, and that's one of my points. Keyrol was going full steam ahead as a prospect up until '23, and then in '23 it looks like he missed nearly every single month of the season with injury: looks like he was healthy in December, a multiweek stretch between late January and Mid February, and then returend back from injury again at the end of April. Looks like he missed basically about 80-85% of his season with Liverpool's U18 squad..... And now he kind of looks meh with the U20 qualifiers. All it takes is one injury, let alone what seemed to happen with Keyrol last season, for all this to go right down the drain and us to move to estimated time of debut to late '26 to '27.