NSR: Coronavirus: A global Pandemic.

With the one exception that his base skews old.

 

Just FYI, there are 49.2 million Americans over 65 years old. If by the end of this 23,000 of them die, that's less than 0.05%.

 

I’d rather get sick there than here. I’m working it, and would move in the middle of “all this.”
Several apps submitted

 

At least we have Half-Life 3...

 

I betcha more than 23,000 Americans over 65 have died already.

 

For a person as pendantic as you, "Body armor" also would have also been imprecise in the same way that calling a truck "an automobile" is. A stab vest is a particular variety of body armor that specifically protects against knife attacks and, depending on the variant, less protection against bullets than a "bullet resistant vest".

 

...and I had never heard the term before it was posted here. I am sorry.

 

My uncle, the woman he is with and her kid all tested positive. They were tested at the hospital then sent back home as the signs didnt warrant staying. Make of it what you will. So now we wait.

 

No.. It isn't.

 

I'm fine with that.

The last time around, half the country wanted the other half to stay. This time around, both sides know they'd be happier without the other. The northeast and the west coast would turn into Scandinavian-style social democracies with the finest infrastructure, human capital, and forward thinking government. And the South can have their slaves back.

 

I understand your mistrust, but that study is real. It's done by Hendrik Streeck a professor of virology and head of the department of virology at a German University. He also worked at the Harvard Medical School and Johns Hopkins University in the past. They picked one of the worst hit parts of Germany and are planning to follow 1000 people representative for German demographics as a whole over a period of time to figure out how the virus spreads and which precautionary measures work best and which don't.
Also they wanted to figure out how many people are/where infected without knowing it so they did an antibody test as well as a virus test and found out that about 14% of their sample population has antibodies already. Officially 0,6% of people in that district have tested positive for the virus. So the number of infected at least in that strongly hit district seems to be more than 20 times higher than official testing has confirmed. If you factor in all those people of course the mortality rate plummets. And yeah, even then it's still considerably higher than the flu...

The reason you can't find the study online is that it isn't out yet, Streeck presented some preliminary findings at a press conference.

A similar study is currently conducted in Munich. With the combined findings we'll have a better picture.

The differences in death rate are more easily explained with differences in testing. Japan is testing as little as possible, so they get less confirmed cases and less confirmed covid deaths.
Numbers coming out of China are pretty much not usable for comparison halfway through the rise of infections in Wuhan they changed how they reported cases. They simply excluded all people that tested positive but didn't have strong symptoms. Mainly for propaganda reasons I assume. Can't trust the death figures as well. They're not even doing it for the rest of the world it's for their own population, their failed hush up tactics where a huge propaganda blunder, they need to fix that and they are.

I haven't looked into it extensively but last time I checked all known strains where 7 or less mutations removed from the original which is basically nothing. A mutation that changes how the virus spreads or how dangerous it gets would most likely need a large structural change in the virus hull or in the way it behaves once it infects someone. That's not very likely something to be overlooked.

Diet could actually be a big factor. Overweight, Coronary Disease and Diabetes have been identified as risk factors for a more severe covid infection. And all those things are more prevalent in the western world than they are in east asia.

Taken right from the New Scientist article:
"The differences between the two identified strains are tiny. In fact, they can’t really be considered to be separate “strains”, says Jones. And many of the genetic differences won’t affect the production of proteins, and so won’t change the way the virus works, or the symptoms it causes, he says. One is not more deadly than the other."

 

Not just that, but we're going to take more risks over time. The only way to prevent death is a vaccine and society won't shut down to this extent until one arrives. It will start to open up, taking more chances. Presumably intelligent and well monitored chances. But some will die because of those chances.

 

We currently sit at 23115 overall, total.

 

The UK has a huge problem with knife crime and no problem with gun crime, so it makes sense that they would use a different type of body armo(u)r.

 

That's only the ones that have died in hospitals and, in many states, only included ones that had confirmed cases. It generally does not include people that died outside of hospitals (home, care centers, etc, etc). As an example, a week ago NY wasn't including people that died at home in their numbers and that was in the hundreds per day. NY did say they would start counting the ones that were presumed covid-19 deaths at some point, but I'm not sure if that number has been updated yet.

https://gothamist.com/news/death-co...uspected-covid-deaths-addition-confirmed-ones

If NY is any indication, the actual count could be 1/4 to 1/3 higher than the official totals.

 

Maybe but we only have official numbers to go by which is 23,036 deaths total.

 

Great. So if we take unrealistically large margins, Brummie might, possibly be right at the current moment. Maybe.

But that would be complete and utter speculation.

I'm not sure why, in response to him saying > 23,000 Americans over 65 have already died, my reply that simply 23,115 have died as of now, currently counted, overall warrants that much of a writeup. Do you not trust that I know there are limits to how things are counted? I think we've been around the block enough for that to not be the case.

 

Let's see if you'll get the same, long (informative!) response from Yoshou.

 

The guy in my building at work is negative.

Whew!

 

Where's Walia? His precious model at the IHME projected 777 deaths in Illinois by August 4th and we just hit 794. Model also hasn't been updated in 3 days. Which is odd because they were updating it daily.

edit: Speak of the devil, they just updated it. 1200 and some change now, I really hope that number is accurate. Also looks like they cleaned up some past data that had IL’s peak at 154 per day a few days ago.