NSR: Coronavirus: A global Pandemic.

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by dapip, Feb 26, 2020.

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  1. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    Look at those insane mortality rates in the UK and Italy due to overwhelmed health service

    This is what is most interesting about what the anecdotal data from Germany really means.

    The real infection rate is likely huge - which means you will suffer staggering loss of life in you let the virus run, because your hospitals simply won't cope

    So germany shows a lower rate because they are actually doing heavy testing and finding most of their outbreaks which means they are controlling them
     
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  2. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    They aren’t shutting it down, they are requiring any papers to be reviewed by government censors to make sure it tows the government line. It may end up being a distinction without a difference, but as with all things China, it is important that research papers don’t make the government look bad. As an example, research papers released earlier this year indicated that the spread of the disease started significantly earlier than China had previously admitted, which, of course, made the country look bad and hurt their claim that there wasn’t a coverup.


    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/asia/china-coronavirus-research-restrictions-intl-hnk/index.html
     
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  3. Timon19

    Timon19 Member+

    Jun 2, 2007
    Akron, OH
    "Lion", not "line".
     
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  4. JamesA

    JamesA Member+

    Dec 7, 2004
    Victoria
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    I'm not implying it was lab made.

    Labs also isolate and study viruses too.

    Again, I find it bizarre why China is so obsessed about the origins.
     
  5. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
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  6. spejic

    spejic Cautionary example

    Mar 1, 1999
    San Rafael, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    #10181 spejic, Apr 13, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2020
    Mostly because protein that allows the virus to stick to human cells (the angiotensin converting enzyme) is something never seen before and actually not that great at it's job. Anyone designing a virus would have used a known ACE that works right.

    https://freethoughtblogs.com/pharyngula/2020/03/28/where-did-sars-cov-2-come-from/
     
  7. spejic

    spejic Cautionary example

    Mar 1, 1999
    San Rafael, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    I've played Skyrim for a very long time, many thousands of hours worth, and still play. The most important mod (of many) I use is called 3DNPC, which adds many new non-player characters to the game, some of which can be your companion. And these are much better than stock game companions, as they have personalities and histories and you can converse with them at length. A great one is Anum-La, and Argonian knight who is upbeat and humorous. I stuck with her a while, and then partnered up with Rumarin, a slightly shady Elf. Rumarin is sarcastic and self-depreciating, and his character has the most lines so you can go anywhere in any situation and he will say something clever. So we tooled around Skyrim for a long time - almost a year. One day we were wading through the swamps of Hjaalmarch for some reason (because why would you go there after you get the deathbells for Ingun Black-Briar, right?) and then I came across Anum-La. You can't believe the smile I had on my face as she greeted me in that exuberant style of hers. I was literally crying tears of happiness at seeing my old friend.

    Yeah, I don't buy it.
     
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  8. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's a bullet proof vest for knives. They're like club bouncers.
     
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  9. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The scientific name for COVID-19 is SARS-CoV-2. It's genetically related to the virus that caused the outbreak 2003 which is supposed to have with originated with bats.

    Unless the Chinese were trying to weaponize SARS I doubt it's man made. I blame Ozzy Osbourne, this is obviously bats taking their revenge.

     
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  10. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Covid-19 is the illness, SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes the illness.
     
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  11. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    [​IMG]
     
  12. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    The mortality rate/death per million of population, for this virus is vastly different between East Asia and Europe. South Korea, the country often cited as the 'model' for proactive measures to contain the spread of the virus, while having statistics that would be the envy of almost any other major western European country or the US, actually has the worst stats compared to other East Asian countries. And it isn't just China, whose death per million figure is half of that of S.Korea, but countries approaching the virus in vastly different ways in East Asia. Case in point is Japan, whose death per million statistic is 1/4th that of South Korea, despite having some cases in the country ever since February and some deaths since then.

    On the other end of the spectrum are European countries like Spain, Italy, France, Belgium et al, with many others joining that group, which have had more than 200 (and some more than 300) deaths per million of population. For these countries, the proportional toll of the virus is sometimes hundred times that which is experienced in Europe.

    Iran actually falls in the middle of these two extremes, but given how issues relating to Iran are treated in this forum, I will leave Iran out of this for now. The main issue, however, that arises and which isn't receiving the attention that it should is whether:

    1) the strains of the virus which have hit Europe (and at least the east coast of the US are different (or at least include different strains) than the ones which hit East Asia earlier, whether due to mutation or otherwise. (I have seen some reporting on the issue, but not enough data and some of what I have seen and heard hasn't been convincing enough given the small samples used). That would make sense to me if some less virulent strain first appeared in China (such as "Strain A" mentioned in some reports as being found in some places, although curiously not China), and even if it become slightly more virulent (Strain B) when it became noticeable enough, with that Strain B then spreading to Iran, while another (more virulent) strain hit Italy (Strain C) and has been one of the prominent strains in Europe (even if the other strains are present too).

    If there are different strains of the virus which are significantly different, this would also have bearing on reports of 're-infection', on the whole 'herd immunity' concept, and efforts to find a vaccine. As well as when and how a society can 're-open for business' after it has flattened the curve.

    2) there are genetic markers or attributes that make East Asians particularly less susceptible to become seriously ill and dying from this virus compared to other communities. If so, finding those markers and attributes could help in advancing the fight against this virus.

    3) there might be dietary or some other related issues to explain this vastly different set of experiences between East Asia and Europe.

    Incidentally, I am well aware of the fact that this virus hasn't spread much in the southern hemisphere but unlike the difference between Europe and East Asia, I think that can be explained for now due to other factors (e.g., climate, incidence of travel, population density, etc). So my focus, right now, would be trying to understand any cogent explanation for why there has been such a hugely (statistically glaring) difference between deaths per million caused by the virus in Europe and East Asia.
     
  13. bungadiri

    bungadiri Super Moderator
    Staff Member

    Jan 25, 2002
    Acnestia
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It doesn't make sense to try to answer these questions until we we have reliable, scientifically based information about infection and mortality rates.
     
  14. russ

    russ Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Canton,NY
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    When have we ever let that stop us before?
     
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  15. bungadiri

    bungadiri Super Moderator
    Staff Member

    Jan 25, 2002
    Acnestia
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Fair point.
     
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  16. dapip

    dapip Member+

    Sep 5, 2003
    South Florida
    Club:
    Millonarios Bogota
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    I read about two strains in the US, S and L, with L being extremly vicious.

    https://www.newscientist.com/articl...are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/

    In regards to the incidence, I also saw something about the BCG vaccine being a factor in countries where the virus has not hit that hard.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054163v1
     
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  17. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    You don't understand the difference between this...

    [​IMG]


    ... and this...

    [​IMG]


    OoooKaaaay!!!
     
  18. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    NRL in Oz is planning to resume on May 29.
     
  19. Timon19

    Timon19 Member+

    Jun 2, 2007
    Akron, OH
    I do! However, without the illustration and an explanation (later provided) for "stab vests", it's a bit hard to divine what you're talking about.

    I mean, "service" vs. "officer" is purely semantic without further cues. When those cues are in a "different language", it's not necessarily obvious.
     
  20. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    There are two types of people in this world, those whose mamas raised them right, and those whom Trump can abide. As my DC friend likes to say, "When this is all over, having 'Trump administration' on your resume will be like knocking on your neighbor's door to inform them that you are registered sex offender."
     
  21. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    :giggle:

    Anyway, you need to check out the game threads and my obsession vague interest in Elder Scrolls Online...

    https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/random-thoughts-on-video-games.1540932/page-127#post-38625331

    Razum Dar is a top bloke, an absolute diamond geezer and a general all-round good egg. Even Darius Gautier has his good point... just not as many as he thinks he has. Also he's a bit too sexist for my liking.

    AMIRITE?! :)
     
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  22. Chicago76

    Chicago76 Member+

    Jun 9, 2002
    At a state level, in simple terms: they were recentering polling results based upon pollster quality/typical lean, and time since the poll. They also created new data points by adjusting other polls states with strong correlation.

    That creates a mean expectation for a result as of a point in time with an estimate of random variance around that estimate. Three additional assumptions applied to initial variance: 1) time to election. The more time to election, the greater adjustment. There is more randomness. 2) turnout model error. 2) black swan type events. This was built in such that it created fatter tails on that variance.

    To get the actual probability, you then have revised variance for each state and correlation estimates between states. Run it through a Monte Carlo-style simulation 10,000 times to produce win probability. It’s a stochastic model. Had the polls had time to better incorporate Comey, we probably would have seen probability increase from 28.6%.

    The only reason I used baseball was because the person who built the referenced model cut his chops doing very similar stuff on baseball. Batting orders and run production given variance around player batting and situational correlation are Markov chains to estimate run production. It’s all stochastic in nature.

    The problem we have is that people introduce their perceived probabilities to assume “they got it wrong”. If a smoker gets lung cancer, that makes sense to us because we believe smokers do get lung cancer. Even though the odds are 10%. If Trump wins an election, that means a 28.6% chance was “wrong”. Because how could he possibly win? He’s an idiot.

    As for why the 28.6% chance wasn’t greater, two things: 1) time to incorporate/make sense of Comey and 2) turnout models feeding the polling estimates. Some subgroups turned out better/worse than the models suggested. Thus was problematic in a subset of states in particular. That was all baked into the 538 model as variance, however once those errors move from conditional to real, then estimates move appreciably.
     
  23. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Yeah, I've never liked that guy :mad:
     
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  24. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    The prime mechanism, I think, was that people weren't paying attention. Hillary was up big in the polls throughout the election, so they had checked out. When the polls tightened late and 538 brought down its projections, they weren't looking. Then Trump wins, they went into complete shock because they had not considered such a possibility, and dismissed pollsters forever as being unreliable.

    And now we have The Damaged Democrat syndrome. No matter what the polls read, the Damaged Democrat is convinced that Trump will win again. Because the polls always say that he is behind and yet he always wins.
     
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  25. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Isn't the point about Comey, not that he inclined some people to vote for Trump, but NOT to vote at all.

    The 'they're-all-the-same' argument... idiotic as it is.

    The thing is, that sort of thing is quite subtle and would take some time to gather data because you can't get it by simply asking, 'Which way are you going to vote' or even 'ARE you going to vote' or 'How certain are you to vote'. You're almost asking, 'If you're sitting at home and there's something good on TV, will you get off your arse to stand in line for quite a long time to vote'.

    IOW the only reliable data is AFTER the event when, by definition, it's too late.

    We always try and ask whether people how certain they are to vote but you know damn well some of them just want you off their doorstep and will say anything to achieve it so you have to tr and gauge it, only finding out later if they told the truth. Even then you don't know HOW they voted... just that they turned up at the polls.
     
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